Morgans Best Ideas: May 2021
About the author:
- Author name:
- By Andrew Tang
- Job title:
- Analyst - Equity Strategy
- Date posted:
- 04 May 2021, 2:00 PM
- Sectors Covered:
- Equity Strategy and Quant
Our best ideas are those that we think offer the highest risk-adjusted returns over a 12-month timeframe supported by a higher-than-average level of confidence. They are our most preferred sector exposures.
This month we add ANZ, Sonic Healthcare, Reliance Worldwide, Tyro Payments and Whitehaven Coal.
Key removals include Westpac and Zip Money.
Best Ideas — Large caps
Coles Group (ASX:COL)
While vaccines are being rolled out across Australia, we think people will continue to spend more time at home due to the risk of COVID-19 flare-ups with the working-from-home trend also likely to stay for some time. This will be beneficial for the major supermarket operators. We continue to prefer COL (~21x FY22F PE and 4% yield) over WOW (25x FY22F PE and 3% yield).
We expect the resilience of STO's growth profile and diversified earnings base see it best placed to outperform against a backdrop of a continuing broader sector recovery. While pre-FEED, we see Dorado as likely to provide attractive growth for STO, while its recent acquisition increasing its stake in Darwin LNG has increased our confidence in Barossa's development. PNG growth meanwhile remains a riskier proposition, with the government adamant it will keep a larger share of economic rents while operator Exxon has significantly deferred growth plans across its global portfolio.
Macquarie Group (ASX:MQG)
We still see MQG as relatively inexpensive and continue to like its exposure to long-term structural growth areas such as infrastructure and renewables. Near term MQG is likely to face earnings pressures from the impact of soft economic conditions but it remains well positioned to ride out the current COVID-19 period and seize opportunities on the other side.
QBE Insurance Group (ASX:QBE)
We see QBE as likely having positive underlying momentum into next year. QBE has been putting through top-line rate increases of around 9% in 1H20, which should assist margin expansion into FY21. With QBE's balance sheet recently reset, pricing tailwinds evident and the stock relatively inexpensive trading on ~12.9x FY22F PE.
We believe ANZ is the most compelling of the major banks on a valuation basis. We expect ANZ to benefit the most of the major banks from the tailwinds currently in place for treasury and markets income. We expect ANZ to continue to focus on absolute cost reduction over the medium term. ANZ has de-risked its loan book over recent years – particularly its institutional loan book – such that the quality of its loan book has increased.
Sonic Healthcare (ASX:SHL)
We see COVID-19 testing continuing into the foreseeable future, with growth potential in COVID serology testing. SHL’s global base business is increasingly resilient, benefitting from geographical diversity. Strong B/S (gearing 21.6x; A$1.3bn headroom) opening the door to acquisitions, contracts and JVs.
Sydney Airport (ASX:SYD)
Revenues have been badly affected by COVID-19-related government travel restrictions. For the short term SYD is no longer a yield stock (we do not expect it to pay a distribution until 2022/23). It is a capital growth play. SYD remains a premier airport asset whose earnings and thus share price we think will rebound with a recovery in pax (particularly the far more valuable international pax).
BHP Group (ASX:BHP)
We view BHP as relatively low risk given its superior diversification relative to its major global mining peers. The spread of BHP’s operations also supplies some defence against direct COVID-19 impact on earnings contributors. While there are more leveraged plays sensitive to a global recovery scenario, we see BHP as holding an attractive combination of upside sensitivity, balance sheet strength and resilient dividend profile.
For our full list of Best Ideas, including our mid-cap and small-cap key stock picks, download our full research note (Morgans clients only):
Best Ideas May 2021
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Disclaimer: The information contained in this report is provided to you by Morgans Financial Limited as general advice only, and is made without consideration of an individual's relevant personal circumstances. Morgans Financial Limited ABN 49 010 669 726, its related bodies corporate, directors and officers, employees, authorised representatives and agents (“Morgans”) do not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising from or in connection with any action taken or not taken on the basis of information contained in this report, or for any errors or omissions contained within. It is recommended that any persons who wish to act upon this report consult with their Morgans investment adviser before doing so.
Disclosure of interest: Morgans may from time to time hold an interest in any security referred to in this report and may, as principal or agent, sell such interests. Morgans may previously have acted as manager or co-manager of a public offering of any such securities. Morgans affiliates may provide or have provided banking services or corporate finance to the companies referred to in the report. The knowledge of affiliates concerning such services may not be reflected in this report. Morgans advises that it may earn brokerage, commissions, fees or other benefits and advantages, direct or indirect, in connection with the making of a recommendation or a dealing by a client in these securities. Some or all of Morgans Authorised Representatives may be remunerated wholly or partly by way of commission.