Melbourne Cup 2021: Best value bet

About the author:

Michael Knox
Author name:
By Michael Knox
Job title:
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
Date posted:
02 November 2021, 10:50 AM

Economists generally have enough sense to know that they know nothing about horse races. There are people who do. They are called tipsters. Every Melbourne Cup Day, their tips are published in major newspapers. 

Today we have taken the tips published in The Australian newspaper. We have taken 12 of those tipsters. From these tipsters we construct our most favoured rating. Every horse nominated to win gets three points. Every horse nominated to come in second gets two points. Horses nominated to come in third get one point.

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Today the total points provided are: Incentivise 29 points; Spanish Mission 15 points; Grand Promenade 11 points; Verry Elleegant 10 points; Pondus 3 points; Tralee Rose 2 points; Sir Lucan 1 point and The Chosen One 1 point. In order to generate the value for each horse, we multiply these points by the odds.

The odds in the electronic market at 7.30am this morning for these horses were Incentivise $2.80; Spanish Mission $9.50; Grand Promenade $15.00; Verry Elleegant $17.00; Pondus $20.00; Tralee Rose $15.00; Sir Lucan $21.00; and The Chosen One $41.00.

When we multiply the odds by the most favoured rating, the results yield: Verry Elleegant 170 points; Grand Promenade 165 points; Spanish Mission 142.5 points; Incentivise 81.2 points; Pondus 60 points; The Chosen One 41 points; Tralee Rose 30 points; and Sir Lucan 21 points.

The most favoured rating, the odds and our calculation of value points is shown in the table below:

Horse Most favoured rating Odds ratio Value points
Verry Elleegant 10 $17.00 170
Grand Promenade 11 $15.00 165
Spanish Mission 15 $9.50 142.5
Incentivise 29 $2.80 81.2
Pondus 3 $20.00 60
Tralee Rose 2 $15.00 30
The Chosen One 1 $1.00 41
Sir Lucan 1 $21.00 21

Best value bet

Our recommendation this year is for an each-way bet on No.4 Verry Elleegant. Remember our recommendation is for the best value bet rather than for the highest probability of winning.

More information

View more analysis from Michael Knox by clicking on 'economic strategy' in the popular topics list, or listen to his full playlist of podcasts on Soundcloud. Alternatively, contact your Morgans adviser or nearest Morgans branch.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this report is provided to you by Morgans Financial Limited as general advice only, and is made without consideration of an individual's relevant personal circumstances. Morgans Financial Limited ABN 49 010 669 726, its related bodies corporate, directors and officers, employees, authorised representatives and agents ("Morgans") do not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising from or in connection with any action taken or not taken on the basis of information contained in this report, or for any errors or omissions contained within. It is recommended that any persons who wish to act upon this report consult with their Morgans investment adviser before doing so.

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