Origin Energy: Strong rebound in FY24 but electricity peaking

About the author:

Author name:

By Max Vickerson

Job title:

Analyst

Date posted:

18 August 2023, 8:00 AM

Sectors Covered:

Industrials, New Energy

• Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) reported a strong 2H driven by a significant contribution from its share of Octopus Energy. Underlying Energy Markets EBITDA of $1.04bn was a slight miss (-4% on Morgans forecast) but Underlying Net Profit of $747m was a strong beat (+11%) with $139m coming from Octopus.
• FY24 Energy Markets guidance was also stronger than expected with guidance for Underlying EBITDA of between $1.3bn - $1.7bn. However, the company said it expects gross profit to decline in FY25 due to declines in futures prices.
• We maintain our HOLD rating with a (login to view) target price based on the offer price from the EIG / Brookfield consortium

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