Consumer Discretionary: Model updates ahead of reporting season

About the author:

Author name:

By Alexander Mees

Job title:

Co-Head of Research and Senior Analyst

Date posted:

13 July 2023, 10:00 AM

Sectors Covered:

Gaming and Retail

• We have updated the estimates for four companies in our universe ahead of the August reporting season after a review of our assumptions.
• Our FY23 NPAT estimate for Domino’s Pizza Enterprises increases slightly, but we remain 1% below consensus. Our FY23 NPAT estimate for Lovisa falls by 1% due to a slightly lower store count, leaving us within 1% of consensus. We have taken our FY23 NPAT forecast for TLC down by 5% due to a lower large jackpot outcome and we now sit 1% below consensus. We have made sweeping changes to SGR as we had not previously updated our model for recent impairments, fines, and the capital raise.
• These changes bring us back into line with consensus. There are no changes to ratings. Our three top picks in Consumer Discretionary are Aristocrat Leisure, Lovisa and Universal Store.

Domino’s Pizza Enterprises

We have reduced ANZ revenue by 1%, but increased margins, taking divisional EBIT up by 2%. This is offset by an increase in central costs, leaving our FY23 NPAT forecast largely unchanged at $128.9m (was $128.5m).

We are 1% below consensus of $129.7m. Our FY24 NPAT forecast is also effectively unchanged at $150.9m (was $150.6m), putting us 5% below consensus.

Lovisa

We have updated our model to account for the latest disclosure around store openings. We have also updated our foreign exchange assumptions.

These changes take our forecast revenue for FY23 down 1% and our forecast NPAT down 1% to $65.1m, just slightly lower than consensus of $65.4m. FY24 NPAT comes down by 1% to $92.6m, 2% above consensus of $90.9m.

The Lottery Corporation

We have updated our estimate of revenue in the Lotteries division to reflect the actual number of large Tier 1 jackpots in FY23 (42, one below our original forecast of 43).Our FY23 NPAT forecast declines by 5% to $355m, 1% below consensus of $359m.

Our FY24 NPAT forecast comes down by 1% to $399m, 1% below consensus of $403m.

The Star Entertainment

We have reset our estimates for SGR as we had not previously updated our model for the recent capital raise, regulatory fines, asset impairments and interim result. We have now brought our assumptions up to date with all these developments and our estimates are now back in line with consensus.

Our revised FY23 NPAT estimate of $28m is in line with consensus of $28m. Our revised FY24 NPAT estimate of $64m is $10m above consensus of $54m.

Find out more

If you would like more information, please contact your adviser or nearest Morgans office. 

Disclaimer: The information contained in this report is provided to you by Morgans Financial Limited as general advice only, and is made without consideration of an individual's relevant personal circumstances. Morgans Financial Limited ABN 49 010 669 726, its related bodies corporate, directors and officers, employees, authorised representatives and agents (“Morgans”) do not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising from or in connection with any action taken or not taken on the basis of information contained in this report, or for any errors or omissions contained within. It is recommended that any persons who wish to act upon this report consult with their Morgans investment adviser before doing so.