Research notes

COG’s 1Q27 update delivered a strong performance, in our view. EBITDA to shareholders rose 53% on the pcp to A$15.3m, with the annualised run-rate (~A$61m) implying ~19% growth, well above FY27 guidance of 10%+. >We lift our FY27F/FY28F EPS forecasts by 13–15% on higher growth expectations for the Salary Packaging business. We now forecast FY27 EBITDA to shareholders growth of ~15%, above guidance of 10%+. Our target price is set at A$2.19 (previously A$2.00). >We see COG as undervalued, trading at ~10x FY27F EPS, given the long-term growth potential and optionality in the business. We retain a BUY recommendation.

The 1Q27 financial result reflected the previously reported operational softness at Langer Heinrich Mine (LHM). Production of 1.0Mlb U3O8 fell short of consensus expectations, impacted by the planned July plant shutdown and weaker recoveries associated with ore characteristics, while sales volumes of 1.16Mlb were broadly in line with consensus estimates. The lower production profile and continued cost pressures weighed on cash generation during the quarter, resulting in cash outflow. >Realised pricing during 1Q27 was a record for LHM at US$79.4/lb and we expect should continue to improve in time as legacy contracts roll off. >We maintain our BUY rating with an unchanged target price of A$13.10ps.

Boeing is a leading global aerospace and defence manufacturer, founded in 1916 and headquartered in Arlington, United States. The company designs and produces commercial airplanes, military aircraft, satellites, and space systems for customers in more than 150 countries. With a commercial airline market share of approximately 43%, Boeing remains a central player in global aviation. The company enters 2026 focused on production ramp-up, certification milestones for the 737 MAX 7, MAX 10 and 777-9, and a strategic recovery path under CEO Kelly Ortberg. Its extensive order backlog and diversified defence programs continue to underpin long-term growth opportunities.

GMG's 1Q27 operating update (reported 4 November) was steady. FY27 targets of 9% OEPS growth and a 30.0cps distribution were reaffirmed, remaining below MorgansF (+10.2%) and VA Consensus (+10.5%), reflecting that GMG has beaten its initial target every year since FY18. WIP held at $19.7bn (79% data centres) at an 8.3% yield on cost and the power bank grew to 6.6GW. There were no new data centre leases, and management was clear it will not sign until delivery is locked in. >Our forecasts and $33.20/sh target price are unchanged. We see the lack of new leases as a timing issue, with three projects in advanced negotiations and market rents rising. With the stock down 13% over three months and trading on c.18x forward earnings (long-run average c.24x), we upgrade to BUY.

NAN’s AGM reaffirmed FY27 guidance, with 1Q27 trading in line. It also appointed former Olympus Americas CEO Julien Sauvagnargues to the board. >The hire is the most interesting item for us, adding endoscopy customer insight just as CORIS moves into launch. Beyond that, there was little news on CORIS traction, and the second US 510(k) approval and timing remains the key overhang. >No change to our ACCUMULATE rating or A$3.50 target price. With the stock at A$2.92 (down 34% over 12 months), the focus stays squarely on early CORIS execution. Buyers on weakness.

WRK has released its 1Q27 activity report. >Operating metrics stepped up sharply in 1Q27, reflecting the Payday Super regulations going live on 1 July 2026. Activation (the lead indicator for revenue) nearly doubled to 50.7%, and ARR rose 27% QoQ to A$17.0m. >Cash receipts were soft at A$3.4m, largely on timing, and the net operating outflow was A$4.1m versus an inflow of A$616k in the pcp. Management expects outflows to moderate from 1Q27 levels and says WRK is fully funded to cash flow break-even. We continue to see 3Q27-4Q27 as the turning point for WRK. >We lower our FY27F/FY28F EPS by 1%-6% on slightly higher operating expense assumptions. Our target price falls to A$0.11 (from A$0.12). >Maintain BUY with >20% upside to our target price.

CSL has staged a remarkable recovery from its June lows, reflecting renewed investor confidence in the earnings outlook and the potential for operational improvement. >While we remain constructive on the underlying franchises and longer-term earnings potential, the recovery has been driven principally by a restoration of confidence rather than a material improvement in near-term earnings expectations. >With better-balanced near-term risk/reward and execution risks remaining, we believe further upside will increasingly require evidence of sustainable earnings growth, rather than simply re-rating. Move to HOLD.

CYL has released its 1Q27 quarterly report: 22.2koz produced at an AISC of A$4,267/oz, with cash and bullion up A$40m QoQ to A$371m. Production was impacted by lower staffing levels and an extended plant shutdown. >FY27 guidance of 90-105koz at an AISC of A$3,600-4,100/oz defers Trident and Old Highway production into FY28 (versus the 2025 outlook), while the broader ~200kozpa target remains largely unchanged. >We maintain our BUY rating with a price target of A$9.66 per share (previously A$11.33).

Securing a US$300M streaming deal with Wheaton Precious Metals on a portion of gold and silver production, has effectively financed development of its A$362M Jervois copper project, NT, to produce 30,000tpy of copper in concentrate, over 10 years, at a projected C1 cost of US$3.00/lb, excluding all gold-silver credits. >The upfront consideration is US$275M, with a US$25M cost overrun facility. Wheaton will pay 20% of the prevailing spot price for 75% of produced gold until 45,000oz are produced, reducing to 25% after 60,000oz. The stream covers 75% of silver up to 4.3Moz, stepping down to 25% after 6Moz. >Our Valuation and Target Price has lifted from A$0.30ps to A$0.46 per share with the streaming and equity funding, and the final investment decision. The increase is despite the increased issued capital, given the streaming deal. In part this is due to a stronger projected copper price. We maintain our high 15% discount rate, which we expect to reduce as the project moves into production.