Research notes

Amplitude delivered another solid operating result, headlined by Sole, with the Orbost gas plant setting new records and beating estimates. >FY27 capex guidance was increased to include Nestor, the fourth optional well at the ECSP project. >We maintain a BUY rating with a A$2.70 target price (was A$2.90).

MSV's 1Q27 result reinforces our view that earnings leverage is beginning to emerge. Operating rigs increased to 66 during the quarter and MSV expects a further 10 rigs to commence by 3Q27. With underlying margins remaining strong at 22.9% and utilisation at 85%, we believe this increased operating activity should increasingly translate into earnings growth as drilling markets recover. >Pathway to 80 – MSV has also stated it sees a pathway to having 80 operating rigs by FY27-end. Against an FY26 average operating fleet of ~62 rigs, this represents a significant increase in activity levels and supports our view that earnings leverage will become increasingly evident through FY27. >We upgrade our recommendation to SPECULATIVE BUY (previously ACCUMULATE) with an increased price target of A$0.80ps (previously A$0.60ps).

ARB’s 1Q27 update was disappointing: sales -6.1% (1Q26 +3.8%) as Aftermarket and Export weakness (single-digit declines) outweighed strong OEM growth. Positively, PBT grew despite weaker sales amid steady gross margins (FX-driven). While a softer Aftermarket result was largely expected (ARB’s core vehicle volumes -16% in 1Q27), Export was a negative surprise, as slower US OEM sales, softer UK vehicle volumes and weak NZ demand offset growth in the US Aftermarket, Africa, Europe and SE Asia. Positively, new OEM contract wins and early indications of recovering OEM sales support the division’s outlook. Despite softer near-term sales, resilient margins should continue to underpin the earnings base, with improving vehicle supply and various network and growth initiatives driving the earnings recovery. BUY maintained, A$25.90ps target price.

PME has announced a further seven-year, A$24m full stack cloud contract with Billings Clinic Logan Health, its third new community health system win in FY27 to date (A$72m TCV, A$10.3m new ARR). The FY27 wins are modest individually but consistent in size, term and scope, pointing to a repeatable mid-market playbook that broadens the pipeline beyond large Integrated Delivery Networks. Near-term focus shifts to RSNA in late November as the likely window for a larger deal, and to execution on a busy 1Q’CY27 go-live schedule underpinning FY28. We upgrade to a BUY (from Accumulate), with no change to our A$230 target price.

CWY today announced that it had executed a takeover Scheme Implementation Deed (SID) with EQT. Completion is targeted by the end of March 2027. Today’s strong rise in CWY’s share price has compressed its total potential return to single digits (albeit double-digit on an annualised basis). Hence, we downgrade from BUY to HOLD. The stock may remain attractive for income-oriented special situations investors given the potential for a special dividend prior to completion.

NGI has released its September 2026 (1Q27) AUM update. >We saw this as a bit of a mixed quarter. Group ownership-adjusted AUM rose +9% (or a solid ~+3% excluding Stable Growth), led by the NGI Strategic Portfolio (+9%). However, Lighthouse was softer, with net flows slowing to +US$280m (4Q26: +US$690m), being mostly into lower-margin managed accounts, and largely offset by negative performance (-US$240m). >We make no changes to our forecasts or our A$3.04 price target. With >20% upside remaining to our PT, we maintain our BUY recommendation.

SHA has been awarded an ~$800m data centre contract by DigiCo. The contract is expected to contribute materially to FY27 and FY28 revenue. We upgrade our NPAT forecasts by 12.6% and 18.7% in FY27 and FY28, respectively, and revise our price target to $8.76 (previously $8.11). We retain our BUY rating.

NWL’s 1Q27 net flows of A$2.6bn were below VA consensus (A$3.5bn), with elevated gross outflows persisting (incl. two institutional client exits totalling A$0.6bn). Group FUA grew +2.5% QoQ to a record A$139.2bn, ~1.3% shy of VA consensus (A$141.0bn), with markets a slight +A$0.8bn tailwind. FY27 net flows guidance was lowered to A$17-19bn, with NWL flagging budget impacts & market volatility as current headwinds to adviser/investor behaviour. We trim our FY27-29F NPAT forecasts by -5-6% reflecting a modest miss vs MorgF, and the addition of Paradino into MorgansF. NWL is trading on a FY27 P/E of ~30x (a -35% discount to its 5yr avg). Our BUY rating is retained with a PT of A$22.90/sh.

DYL has withdrawn its targeted 4Q26 Final Investment Decision (FID) for Tumas, citing weakness in equity market conditions and a constrained funding backdrop for uranium developers. The FID deferral is not entirely surprising given the weakness in DYL's share price over recent months. In our view, raising equity at current levels would have represented an unattractive funding outcome for existing shareholders. Importantly, we view this as a delay rather than a change in strategy, with DYL remaining focused on advancing Tumas and positioning the project for a future FID. We maintain our rating of SPECULATIVE BUY with a price target of A$1.50ps (previously A$1.95ps).

PLS has taken FID on the ~A$1.9bn P2000 expansion, lifting capacity to ~2Mtpa (from ~1.2Mtpa) with first production targeted in 1Q FY30. P2000 capex is ~20% above MorgansF, but steady-state production is higher (+16%) and sustaining + mine development spend lower (-14%). Maintain ACCUMULATE with A$3.70ps target price.