Research notes

Koala delivered a strong FY26 result with EBITDA norm more than doubling to $27.9m, which was 12.5% above the Prospectus. This was driven by broad-based gross margin expansion. We upgrade our earnings, retain our BUY rating, and remain enthused by the growth outlook with the stock continuing to screen cheaply relative to peers (FY27F PER 16x and NPAT norm growth >20% across FY27-FY29).

HMC delivered FY26 Operating EPS (pre-tax) of 40.4c, in line with the ~40c guidance. On a like-for-like basis the result was broadly in line with MorgansF, with recurring funds management the standout - FM EBITDA of $88.5m (+12% vs MorgansF) and recurring FM revenue of $165.5m (+22% on FY25). Fee-generating AUM rose 15% to $16.9bn. FY27 underlying EPS guidance of at least 35cps implies ~16% growth on FY26's new 30.2c underlying (cash-backed) measure, ~7% below MorgansF (37.8c) at the floor but a clean step-up; DPS guidance of 15cps implies +25%. The balance sheet has re-set post the Illuma (Energy) sell-down, with gearing of 10.7% and ~$0.5bn undrawn. We see the more important signal in the FY27 pivot toward cash-backed recurring earnings, away from lumpy transaction fees and fair-value gains. Target price broadly unchanged at A$4.00; we reaffirm our BUY.

The FY26 accounts and news release contained limited surprises, after the result was pre-released in late July via an investor update. As a result, we make no changes to our forecasts or target price ($1.40) and reiterate our BUY rating. The main incremental information from the release relates to the Kariyarra Water Scheme (KWS), whereby it has been revealed that the formal market sounding process was successful in that the non-binding EOIs received underpin demand >10gL. Going forward, the nature of the business will change materially, with both the NewGround (Defensive diversification) and Welltech (A deeper well of earnings) acquisitions due to complete at or around the end of September.

We saw COG's FY26 result as a strong performance, being 3% above Bloomberg consensus at EBITDA (A$69m, +14% on the pcp) and 12% above at NPATA-to- shareholders (A$32m, +33% on the pcp). Meanwhile, FY27 EBITDA-to-shareholder growth guidance of 10% (or better) was ahead of our expectations (+5%) and arguably somewhat conservative, in our view. We lift our COG FY27F/FY28F NPAT-to-shareholders forecasts by 8%/3% on higher Salary packaging business growth expectations. Our PT rises to A$2.00 (previously A$1.92). We think COG is too cheap, trading on ~11.5x earnings, given the long-term growth potential and optionality in the business. We retain a BUY recommendation.

6KA’s 1H26 performance was largely pre-released following the announcement of its June quarter update in late July. 1H26 revenue jumped 73% to US$13.1m, with 2Q26 revenue of US$7.1m implying an annualised run-rate of ~US$28m, up from ~US$25m in 1Q26. Both the Powder (+77%) and Alloy (+66%) segments delivered strong revenue growth, with an order backlog of ~US$11.9m supporting ongoing sales momentum in 2H26. We increase CY26F revenue by 10% to US$26.3m but decrease NPAT to -US$13.9m (from -US$9.6m previously) due to higher costs. While 2H26 is expected to be impacted by the ramp up of expansion and consolidation activities at the Burgettstown facility, we remain confident in 6KA’s growth prospects once these initiatives are completed. Our CY27F and CY28F forecasts remain largely unchanged and we maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating. Our target price is broadly unchanged at $1.30 (previously $1.31).

Cash is starting to flow - PDN delivered positive operating cash flow for the first full year since the restart, generating US$38m in FY26 and marking the transition from ramp-up story to steady-state and cash-generating producer. Guidance beaten across the board - Langer Heinrich Mine (LHM) exceeded FY26 production, sales and cost guidance, providing further evidence that the operation can sustainably deliver and continues to build momentum as it enters more steady state operations. Following recent share price strength, we move to an ACCUMULATE (previously BUY) with an increased price target of A$14.10ps.

LOV delivered a strong FY26 result, with EBIT up 14.1%, ~4.5% ahead of consensus. Excluding estimated ~$22m of EBIT losses from Jewells UK, the underlying business would have grown just shy of 30% yoy. The global store rollout continues, opening 160 stores in FY26, with management expecting a similar number in FY27. Trading in the first 8 weeks of FY27 was positive (+3% LFL), against a challenging comp in the pcp (+5.6%). We lower our EBIT by 1%/2% in FY27/28. Our valuation lowers to $31.00 and we move to an ACCUMULATE (from BUY) following recent strength in the share price.

CYL reported record production at Plutonic in Q4 to close out FY26, but we expect a softer FY27 outlook when guidance is released in late Sep-26. Permitting timelines, the ramp-up of multiple new mines and a better understanding of processing capability are likely to drive a rebase of the Sep-25 10-year plan, potentially delaying the pathway to ~200kozpa. As a result, we have amended our production forecasts and cost assumptions. Following an analyst change, we retain our BUY recommendation with a revised price target of A$11.33 per share.

PNV’s FY26 result was broadly in line with expectations (revenue up 16.7% and underlying EBITDA up 51%); however, FX headwinds and an inventory reallocation impacted the 2H. FY26 was a reset year. We have recast our next three-year forecasts and moderated revenue growth to 15% (was 20%). PNV enters FY27 focused on execution, leveraging its growing wound care franchise, increasing MTX adoption, expanding use in complex wounds and progressing key regulatory milestones including PMA submission. Management expects growth through deeper penetration of existing accounts, broader indications, platform expansion opportunities and improved operating leverage over time. As a result of forecast changes our target price falls to A$1.21 (from A$1.48). BUY.

WOW’s FY26 result was slightly better than expected. Australian Food earnings were in line with our forecast, while Australian B2B and W Living exceeded expectations. NZ Food was softer following a challenging 2H26. Encouragingly, Australian Food sales momentum has continued into early FY27, supported by the popular Disney Ooshies collectibles campaign. Excluding this benefit, sales growth remained solid, indicating the underlying business continues to perform well. We adjust FY27/28/29F underlying EBIT by +2%/+2%+4%. Our target price increases to $43.50 (from $37.30), reflecting changes to earnings forecasts and a higher valuation multiple. The multiple expansion reflects continued positive momentum in the core Australian Food segment, our increased confidence that this sales growth can be sustained, and improved execution. We maintain our ACCUMULATE rating.