Research notes

PXA’s FY26 results came in ahead of Visible Alpha consensus at both EBITDA (+3%) and Core NPAT (+11%). However, FY27 guidance was significantly below expectations, reflecting a more difficult outlook for the domestic mortgage market, with transaction volumes now expected to decline materially this year. We make sizeable downgrades to our EPS forecasts over the next two years (>20%) on the softer guidance commentary, and our price target falls to A$7.12 (from A$9.35). While there is likely inherent value in PXA at current levels, we think there are too many headwinds and unknowns near term to turn positive.

MFG’s group operating profit after tax (A$145m) was down 9% on the pcp (A$159m) and 2% above consensus (A$142m). Guidance was the main factor weighing on the result, with management flagging numerous headwinds for FY27 - which shapes up as a consolidation year - alongside signs of a slowdown in Barrenjoey growth in 2H26 (despite otherwise impressive overall numbers). We downgrade our MFG FY27F/FY28F EPS by ~10-20%, reflecting disclosed guidance impacts to earnings and greater conservatism in our Barrenjoey growth forecasts. Our price target falls from A$11.26 to A$10.25. While MFG faces some near-term pressures, we continue to believe the company is well positioned to drive medium-term growth. With >10% upside to our price target, we maintain our ACCUMULATE call.

NXT’s FY26 and FY27 outlook were both above expectations. Customer demand remains insatiable and NXT is on a glide path to materially higher EBITDA. We lift our EBITDA forecasts materially on a faster ramp-up of contracted MW. We see the value creation from substantial FY26 deals but cannot avoid the investment markets reasonable fixation on the funding envelop. We think, until NXT delivers more steps along the path to a capital recycling program, the stock could lack marginal buyers. We move to a Hold recommendation, for now.

FY26 revenue of $204m grew +17% YoY and EBITDA similarly rose +15%. However, higher depreciation saw operating EBIT only +3%. Importantly, the New Zealand business which plagued 1H recovered in 2H with EBITDA +42% HoH. Adjusted NPATA was strong at $24m, though this was helped by a one-off tax refund. Going forward, the ANZ business now has a strong platform to grow, with the secured commercial pipeline doubling to $72.4m since 1Q. FY27 guidance will be provided at the AGM. From here, however, given the sheer scale, the investment case will largely hinge upon the acquisition and execution of ADT UK’s Residential business (~A$80m EBITDA). We pare back our EBITA forecast by 7-10% across FY27 and FY28 on higher depreciation, which sees our target price come down to $1.10 (from $1.20). SPECULATIVE BUY retained.

The FY26 result landed where the July trading update flagged, with revenue of A$114.5m and adjusted EBITDA of A$10.9m (9.6% margin), a touch under our A$11.1m EBITDA forecast. The management restructure is now formalised (Karen Borg sole CEO, Greg Knight COO, Nathan Minnich CMO), removing the leadership overhang flagged in July and giving the FY27 growth reinflection case a settled team to execute against. We make no changes to our view or rating (Speculative Buy) but valuation rises to A$0.76 (from A$0.75) on model roll-forward. With A$16.8m net cash against a A$73m market cap, SOM is now trading on <8x EV/EBITDA, it’s too cheap.

Guidance rest and expectations move lower - FY27 guidance implies a ~15% production downgrade versus consensus even at the top end of the range, while C1 costs and AISC are ~15-18% above market expectations. While FY26 was broadly in line, FY27 guidance is likely to drive a reset in earnings expectations. Honeymoon new feasibility study - The updated feasibility study outlines a more achievable development pathway with improved unit economics and lower sustaining capital intensity; however, the 13.8Mlb production profile sits below the ~15.1Mlb assumed by consensus, shifting the debate towards whether improved margins can offset lower volumes. Following material downgrades to our forecasts, we move to a SELL (previously ACCUMULATE) with a reduced-price target of A$1.30ps (previously A$1.40ps).

CCR delivered a standout FY26 result, with organic revenue growth of +9% (+12% core collections growth), complemented by strong contributions from CCR’s two acquisitions. Revenue of $60m (+28% YoY) exceeded guidance. Underlying EBITDA (excl SBP) of $10.4m (+41% YoY) was also strong. FY27 guidance of $73-77m revenue (+21-28% growth) and EBITDA of $12-14m (+14-33% YoY) was largely consistent with our expectations, with CCR pointing to a solid pipeline and further international growth opportunities underpinning this outlook. We upgrade our revenue/EBITDA forecasts by 3% in FY27/28F, with our price target unchanged at $0.30/share.

MX1 posted its FY26 result which was slightly ahead of our forecasts. We have made some modest downward revisions to our forecasts which see our TP now at A$0.06 (was $0.08). We have moved to a HOLD recommendation (was SPECULATIVE BUY) preferring to wait for evidence of some sales momentum with the Rover following a restructure of that division.

The FY26 result beat expectations with EBITDA of $318m +77% yoy and +7% vs MorgansF/consensus and NPAT of $178m +295% and +11%. The audited result does not change our view given FY27 guidance was already flagged in August, and we remain positive on AIS' leverage to strong copper and gold prices across Tritton and Cracow. We maintain a BUY rating with a A$0.63ps target price (previously A$0.55).

The FY26 result was robust, and the order book stands at $1.4bn which almost entirely de-risks FY27. Further tendering activity across a heavy pipeline of projects across resources and public infrastructure should ensure an even stronger FY28, positioning CVL for an upgrade cycle. Moreover, prospects of winning defence work continue to strengthen, for both naval shipbuilding and the construction of the defence precinct at Henderson. This comes as a free option. We lift FY27-28 EBITDA +7-8% and our target price to $2.40 (from $2.30). BUY.