Research notes

LGI's FY26 growth update (via social media) highlighted five newly registered carbon sites (25 total, from 20 at 1H26), strong ACCU creation (FYTD May-26 +17% yoy) and in-line electricity generation (130 GWh, +33% yoy), which we expect to more than offset the delayed Mugga Lane battery commissioning (now FY27, previously 2H FY26). While we view FY26 as intact, weaker wholesale electricity and LGC prices have weighed on the medium-term earnings outlook, driving material EPS revisions (FY27 -25%, FY28 -38%) and a de-rating in the stock. Near-term earnings face ongoing headwinds from weaker commodity prices, and we expect FY27 to step back before growth resumes. Over the medium term, we continue to view LGI positively given the material development pipeline ahead (~4x FY25) as the group scales and executes its meaningful battery rollout. BUY, A$3.10ps price target.

MatrixCare will be divested for US$490m cash (c9x earnings), crystallising a disappointing financial outcome (paid US$750m (25x) in 2018) for a business that expanded software capabilities but delivered modest earnings growth. Strategically, however, we believe the transaction makes sense, as it simplifies the portfolio and retains Brightree and MEDIFOX DAN, while exiting a lower-growth, non-core software business. Importantly, net proceeds will largely be returned to shareholders via an accelerated share repurchase (ASR), which should substantially offset earnings dilution from both the MatrixCare disposal and the recently completed Noctrix acquisition, while FY26 guidance has been reaffirmed. We make modest adjustments to FY26-28 forecasts, with our target price moving to A$40.97 (from A$41.72). BUY.

EIQ has de-risked the commercial pathway since our initiation via a $110m placement at $1.45/share and a new distribution partnership with Pro Medicus, both of which sit alongside an unchanged core clinical and regulatory thesis. HF FDA clearance remains the single biggest re-rating catalyst from here, and while timing has slipped slightly from our expected 4Q26 window, we remain confident on approval and expect feedback imminently. We lift our discounted target price to $1.85 (from $1.30), driven by a medium-term acceleration of revenues. Speculative Buy rating retained.

We have identified an error in the previously published financial summary tables, where a number of figures did not pull through correctly from our underlying model. The error was presentational only. The underlying financial model is unchanged, with no impact on any forecast, assumption or valuation input. No change to our ACCUMULATE rating or A$230.00 DCF-based target price.

MFG's 4Q26 AUM update showed AUM fell ~A$1bn to A$36.7bn, driven by A$2.5bn of net outflows, partially offset by A$1.7bn of positive market movements. Overall, we view this as a softer quarter. The A$2.5bn in outflows is a step up from recent trend, running well above the A$0.3bn average outflows of the prior four quarters, and marking the largest quarterly outflow since 3Q23. We make relatively minor downgrades to FY26F/FY27F EPS on reduced AUM assumptions, following higher 4Q26 outflows than we expected. We lower our price target to A$11.26 (from A$11.29). With the recent pullback in the share price, we now have more upside (~13%) to our price target and move to an ACCUMULATE recommendation (from Hold).

ADH provided a FY26 trading update, with Adairs performing ahead of expectations, Mocka largely in line, but ongoing weakness in Focus on Furniture continues to weigh on group earnings. Group EBIT is expected to be down ~1.3%. Given the ongoing weakness in Focus on Furniture and the extended remediation time required, the group intends to recognise an impairment charge of $62-28m ($56-60m after tax). This will be excluded from underlying earnings. We have made downward revisions to our earnings in FY26/27/28. We now have a $1.70 PT and an ACCUMULATE recommendation (previously BUY).

Coverage of Minerals 260 transferred to resources analyst, Flynn Tyson. MI6 has released its maiden Ore Reserve and PFS, confirming Bullabulling as one of Australia's premier undeveloped gold projects. The study outlines ~150kozpa production over the first decade, a 43% IRR, A$2.3bn NPV and a two-year payback period. Importantly, the PFS was completed largely on the previous 4.5Moz resource base, with the upgraded 6.2Moz MRE providing scope for further reserve growth, mine plan optimisation and increased scale through the DFS. We retain our BUY recommendation and A$1.38/share price target.

The JHX share price is up 25% in three months, leaving the business trading on a PER (NTM) of 22x, back towards the pre-AZEK average multiple of 21x. JHX has FY27 guidance in the market for EBITDA growth 4-8% - an achievable ambition. However, by Sep-26 investor attention will turn to 2028 earnings expectations, and with Consensus factoring in +22% EPS growth we see downside. It is our expectation that any US housing recovery will progressively be pushed into FY29/30, with JHX eking out mid to high single digit growth over the medium term. Given JHX is trading back at its average multiple, despite the AZEK acquisition, and combined with the potential downside revisions to consensus forecasts, we are moving to a Trim rating with a $36.00/sh price target.

NWL’s recent win with Morgan Stanley Wealth Management represents strong early validation of NWL’s iHIN offering and expansion into the broker segment of the market, which represents a net-flows tailwind into FY27-FY30. We see NWL’s incremental investment into FY27 as a doubling down on its strategy to drive further long-term scale benefits. We reiterate our Accumulate rating with a A$27.50 PT.

Despite a severe decline in 4Q26 China Label (CL) infant formula (IF) sales, A2M has slightly upgraded its FY26 NPAT guidance and materially upgraded cashflow. Encouragingly, the balance of the portfolio offset the CL IF decline. Importantly, IF supply and stock levels are now approaching more normal levels, but A2M will likely need to lift FY27 marketing spend to win back customers who switched to other brands while it was out of stock. We have made modest upgrades to FY26 and minor downgrades to FY27/28. Overall, A2M’s update was better than feared. While we have trimmed our forecasts, we expect strong earnings growth from FY27 onwards. We maintain our ACCUMULATE rating with a revised price target of A$8.30 (was A$8.70).