Research notes

Nike, Inc. is a global leader in athletic footwear, apparel and equipment with an estimated market share in 2023 of 39% (investing.com). Nike’s iconic ‘Swoosh’ logo is one of the most recognisable consumer brands in the world. Nike sells directly through over 1,000 retail stores and ecommerce platforms, as well as through wholesale channels. It employs a contract manufacturing model.

The headline read-through from IPART's draft report on proposed pricing changes for PXA is an anticipated reduction in revenue of A$70m (~20%) in year 1. We think a 20% hit to exchange revenue was much more punitive than consensus market expectations. Applying the cut in one year, rather than phasing it in over multiple years, adds to the disappointment. We make small changes to PXA FY26F/FY27F EPS (-3%) on a review of our assumptions, and lower FY28F EPS by 40% reflecting today's IPART announcement. Our price target is reduced to A$9.35 (from A$14.23). We Move PXA to HOLD. Proposed outcomes here are worse than expected, and this creates significant uncertainty around PXA’s future profit profile and its overall operating environment.

The wholly-owned Maronan Mineral Development Lease (MDL 2028) was approved in September 2025, after the Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) evaluated a 10-year underground mine life based on 22% of the total resource. The resource to JORC Code (2012) standards contains 122Moz silver, 2Mt lead, 271kt copper and 0.76Moz gold, with yearly production 5.4Moz silver equivalent (AgEq) at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of A$30.18/oz (~US$20/oz) AgEq. While the PEA is robust, MMA is yet to deliver a feasibility study, secure development finance, receive grant of a Mining Lease, and commence the path from construction to production. With 40-45% exposure to silver and 20-25% to lead, commodity prices are also the key to the level of profitability. We initiate coverage of MMA with an A$0.66 target price and SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation.

RMD has de-rated to ~16x forward earnings, its lowest valuation since the post-GFC period, despite consensus continuing to forecast double-digit EPS growth. GLP-1 therapies, positive Phase III data from Apnimed's oral OSA therapy, the prospect of Philips re-entering the US PAP market from 2027 and broader healthcare sector de-rating, have driven recent share price weakness. While these risks are real, current industry data and RMD’s operating performance provide limited evidence of a material deterioration in underlying demand. We make no changes to FY26-28 forecasts or our A$41.72 target price. BUY.

IMR has received FDA clearance for its NorthStar mapping system and Diagnostic Catheter for use in paediatric patients, meeting its expected timeline and opening a new commercial sales channel. IMR’s technology is proving to have broader application in addition to ablation procedures. We have increased our sales and marketing costs and roll our model forward to capture more growth. As a result, the TP increases to A$2.94 (was A$2.61). Plenty of news to come. SPECULATIVE BUY maintained.

AVH shares have remained volatile but have now run to our A$1.35 target price, driven by the closure of the MAC reimbursement overhang and early signs of a commercial recovery from the 1Q26 report. The re-rate has moved faster than the evidence and perhaps trading stronger post tax loss selling exhaustion and likely trading into the 2Q report which has potential to re-ignite optimism. However, a positive 2Q not yet confirmed so ordering momentum from reactivated accounts, 2Q26 cash burn reduction, and sustained cost discipline are all still pending proof points, not yet delivered ones. We move to HOLD (from Speculative Buy) with target price unchanged at A$1.35. This is a valuation call on a share price catching up to a thesis, not a downgrade of the thesis itself.

MAP has raised A$5m in fresh capital via an institutional placement, including further strategic investment from Sonic Healthcare. The raise follows an unsuccessful private equity (PE) approach for MAP's testing and supplements businesses. Quantum unknown but commentary implied a valuation higher than its undisturbed pre-raise market cap of $38.4m. Cost reductions sharpen the path to breakeven and sales continue to grow, but dilution remains a drag. Investors will want to see traction in upcoming quarterlies before turning more positive. Despite a shorter path to profitability, dilution and risk pares our price target to A$0.12 (from A$0.15). SPECULATIVE BUY retained.

Coverage of Medallion Metals transferred to resources analyst, Flynn Tyson. MM8 has quickly progressed from developer to near-term producer, systematically advancing the Ravensthorpe Gold Project (RGP) as the Cosmic Boy Concentrator (CBC) nears commissioning, with visibility on first production and cash flow generation continuing to improve. We upgrade our recommendation to BUY (previously SPECULATIVE BUY) and increase our price target to A$0.99/share (from A$0.87/share), reflecting continued project advancement and revisions to our production assumptions.

S32 has agreed to sell its entire ali business for total consideration of US$5.6bn (US$4.1bn upfront), and transfer of US$1.2bn closure/rehab liabilities. Our view on S32’s aluminium sale is genuinely mixed. It leaves S32 a simpler and, in important respects, a better business, but also a smaller and less valuable one. Total value of up to ~US$6.8bn, which sits at a discount to consensus/Morgans valuations of US$8.8-9.2bn. We reduce our valuation on S32’s ali assets to in line with the agreed Alcoa deal, and shift our valuation methodology to a blended NAV:EBITDA valuation of A$4.50 (from A$5.00). As a result we update our rating to HOLD (from Accumulate).

OCL’s largest and longest standing customer, the Australian Department of Defence, has elected not to renew its Upgrade and Support (USP) agreement for Objective ECM, a relationship that has been in place for over 25 years. Whilst OCL expects no impacts to earnings in FY26, the group has flagged that the impact from the loss in revenue will see FY26 ARR end the period “in line with FY25” on a constant currency basis (i.e. ~A$120m Pre FY26 FX headwinds). Rebasing our forecasts for OCL’s revised FY26 ARR, our NPAT estimates reduce by ~22-23% in FY27-28F. Whilst this is a disappointing and unexpected update, post our revisions OCL is trading on FY27F P/E of 21x, with a share price at 5-years lows. We therefore reiterate our Buy rating with a revised PT of $11.50/sh.