Research notes

EMV has made progress in the pivotal clinical trial for emu™ with enrolment expected to complete late CY26 or early CY27. EMV’s aeromedical feasibility and usability study with the First Responder (pre-hospital) device is expected to complete recruitment in this quarter. EMV continues to manage its cash position well which includes grant funding from various sources.

We see TWE’s Investor Day on 4 June as a key share price catalyst. At this event, the company intends to share its detailed plans and targets for its portfolio and operating model to support a future state TWE. TWE’s recent trading update was positive with strong depletion growth, highlighting the strength of its brands. It also has the support of its banks with new debt commitments secured. 2H26 EBITS is on track to be higher than the 1H26. Following material share price weakness, given its low trading multiples and our belief that new management can deliver more acceptable returns overtime, we upgrade to a BUY recommendation.

GNC’s 1H26 result was weak but broadly in line with consensus at the NPAT level. Business unit performance was stronger for Agribusiness but materially weaker for Nutrition & Energy given a one-off derivate timing issue. GNC reported a significantly larger than expected cash outflow and its core cash position was also lower than expected. The era of special dividends now appears to be over. GNC reiterated its FY26 earnings guidance. The outlook for the FY27 winter crop is one of caution given grain grower’s cost pressures and the BOM’s dry outlook. We have downgraded our forecasts for a much smaller crop. GNC’s strategic assets are worth materially more than its current share price. However, given earnings look set to decline again in FY27, the stock is lacking share price catalysts, and we move to a HOLD recommendation.

XRO reported a better-than-expected FY26 result and FY27 outlook. Earnings momentum continues to improve relative to consensus expectations. Management were confident enough to announce a buy-back and hint at potential capital management in FY28. However, investors didn’t take comfort with commentary around AI disruption risk versus reward. Management has a plan to maximise the opportunity set (TAM) ahead of a path to AI monetisation. It’s early days in AI and the path to AI driven value creation will become clearer, over time. We retain our BUY recommendation and $111 Target Price.

WOR hosted an investor day outlining its medium-term ambitions to deliver double-digit EBITA CAGR through to FY30. Central to this plan is pursuing a full delivery project model as WOR looks to capture more of the value chain by performing construction work. Looking ahead, WOR should see some medium-term support from Middle East repair activity and a broader uplift in global upstream hydrocarbon spending driven by renewed energy security concerns. However, consensus already embeds strong growth into FY27, and risks persist, including project concentration and execution risk associated with larger EPC work. We make no changes to our forecasts except to incorporate the buy-back which drives FY27/28 EPS +3/5% higher. We maintain our HOLD recommendation and increase our target price slightly to $11.80 (from $11.60).

BlinkLab (BB1) is a digital healthcare company that has developed a smartphone-based neuroscience diagnostic platform to aid the early diagnosis of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) using neurometric testing analysed via machine learning. BB1 has recently completed a $17.5m capital raising which comfortably funds its two clinical programs, ASD and Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), through to approval, which the company expects in FY27 and FY28, respectively. BB1’s pilot study showed impressive results. As a result, a pivotal study recruiting 528 participants is due to read out in late CY26, representing a key milestone. A successful result would see regulatory clearance around 1QCY27. In parallel, the much larger ADHD opportunity is progressing. Offering potential share price catalyst through upcoming news flow, we initiate coverage of BB1 with a A$1.76 target price and SPECULATIVE BUY rating for investors with a higher risk profile.

CC5 has identified over $45m in sales revenue from its existing client base of seven pharmaceutical companies. The continued rollout of recently launched contact plate now provides a complete automated solution for customers. CC5 has ended 3Q26 in a reasonable cash position which will be enhanced in 4Q26 by additional committed sales, R&D tax refund and receivables. Further catalysts include additional contracts with new and existing customers.

AX1 hosted an Investor Day, outlining its 2030 strategic plan, targeting sales of $1.9bn, 9%+ EBIT margin and 950 stores. This will be driven by operating efficiencies (cost out and store optimisation), growth of sports related banners (Sports Direct, TAF) and growth in vertical owned brands. AX1 also outlined a pathway to profitable growth in FY27, underpinned by closure of loss making Glue/ OzSale, TAF reacquisitions, cost efficiencies and FX tailwind. We have made no changes to our FY26 forecasts, but increase our EBIT by 2%/1% in FY27/28 incorporating further cost efficiencies. We retain our BUY recommendation and target price of $0.75.

HLS has materially downgraded FY26 earnings, which we find disappointing given reiterated consensus-aligned guidance at the 1H26 result only three months ago. While Pathology cost control continues to improve and labour optimisation initiatives are gaining traction, weaker volumes, ongoing GP softness and mounting regulatory/funding pressures are offsetting operational progress. Agilex continues to perform relatively well, and HLS has commenced a strategic review following unsolicited interest in the asset. However, the extent to which value can be crystallised above the original high acquisition multiple remains uncertain given the business’ modest scale and inconsistent earnings trajectory. While a potential Agilex sale could provide balance sheet upside, the downgrade reinforces that sustainable margin recovery within core Pathology remains elusive. We adjust FY26-28 estimates, with our target price decreasing to A$0.41. HOLD.

Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) 1H26 result beat our forecasts and came broadly in line with consensus, despite management's prior flagging of a softer than usual 1H skew. Gaming was the clear standout - strong outright sales on continued Baron cabinet demand and solid leased adds in a thin content period. Product Madness and Interactive came in below our forecasts, though the latter is complicated by a D&D reclassification and acquisition drag that flatters the headline miss. Greater clarity on the FY26-29F earnings shape is expected at the July investor day. Capital management remains a key pillar - a $1bn buyback extension marks $5.1bn returned over five years, underpinned by a fortress balance sheet at 0.3x net debt/EBITDA. We now assume a normalised 1H/2H skew and incorporate ~$100m in annualised savings in FY27, lifting EPSA 3% and 4% for FY26-27F respectively. Target price increases to $67.00 (prev. $63.00), Buy retained. Today's reaction is largely a relief rally following recent downgrade risk - in our view, this result provides a solid runway of land-based earnings clarity over the next 6-12 months.