Research notes

SOM missed FY26 revenue guidance on European reimbursement changes, though disciplined cost control kept EBITDA on target, a demand problem rather than a margin problem. The margin upgrade case we've backed since February isn't dead, but it’s gotten harder with the historical European engine throttling back. Investors may need to see some reversal signs here before getting more positive. Our target price is reduced to A$0.75 (from A$0.99) and retain a Speculative Buy.

IPD posted its 4Q26 report which showed some progress; however, the installed base growth is still below that needed to achieve break-even. The A$5m cost saving initiatives are expected to deliver results evenly over the year, which should see operating cash outflow reduce significantly. We have moderated our revenue forecasts, which have been offset by a lower cost base. As a result, our target price has reduced to A$0.01 (was A$0.02). We maintain a SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation noting this is a high risk play as the company moves towards break-even.

RPL released its preliminary 1H CY26 results on 22-Jul, booking what was another good result for RPL, growing FUM, performance fees and NPAT, all within the context of the company trading on a relatively undemanding PER (CY27) of ~9x. The share price has declined 6% since the result, something we attribute to the slightly lower FUM (and management fee). An impact we consider relatively de minimis, given fund performance is the key forward indicator for future FUM growth. On this basis, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with a $4.00/sh price target (previously $4.20/sh).

TTX posted a solid 4Q26 cash flow result, noting positive operating cash flow for the quarter because of the receipt of the Superpower Health licence fee. Following a A$15.6m capital raise, TTX is in a strong financial position, in our view, with multiple catalysts expected to drive the share price, including FDA approval for bone regeneration products and launch of the product through Superpower Health. We have revised up our FY26 forecasts on a lower cost base and our long-term Precision Medicine forecasts, reflecting a higher level of confidence in its growth prospects. Our target price increases to A$8.59 from A$7.15 and we maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation.

A clean sheet and guidance beat - Langer Heinrich Mine (LHM) delivered a standout 4Q, with production (+6% vs MorgansF; +6% vs consensus), sales (+16%; +12%) and costs all beating expectations, while FY26 production, sales and cost outcomes exceeded PDN's guidance targets. LHM ramp up complete - PDN has formally declared the LHM ramp-up complete, with 4Q26 seeing full mining and processing operations. We maintain our BUY rating with a reduced price target of A$12.50ps (previously A$13.05ps).

SFR delivered a strong 4Q26 result with production, revenue, EBITDA and net cash all coming in well ahead of consensus and MorgansF. Net cash of $353m materially beat expectations and was +364% qoq even after paying down $113m of debt. SFR is now debt free. FY27 production guidance was in-line with expectations, while capex is expected to be higher than original expectations. Move to an ACCUMULATE with an unchanged A$22ps target price.

Debt reset unlocks flexibility - SMR has successfully refinanced its corporate debt facilities, reducing borrowing margins by 100bp, removing ~US$70m pa of scheduled principal repayments and extending maturities. Clean sheet at the group level - SMR delivered a clean beat at the group level, with Coal Mined, Saleable Production and Coal Sales all exceeding both Morgans and consensus expectations. We move to a HOLD rating (previously BUY) due to recent share price strength. Our price target of A$2.80ps is unchanged.

ASML is the world’s leading supplier of advanced lithography systems used in the manufacturing of semiconductors, with a dominant position in deep ultraviolet (DUV) and an effective monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) technology. The company’s systems are critical to the production of sophisticated microchips. ASML’s product portfolio includes High-NA EUV and Low-NA EUV lithography systems, ArF immersion, KrF and i-line DUV systems for both advanced and mature nodes, advanced packaging lithography, and metrology, inspection, and computational lithography solutions that optimise yield and productivity. Its customers are global semiconductor foundries, logic and memory manufacturers (e.g., TSMC/Samsung/Intel), supported by long-term relationships, high switching costs and a growing installed base that underpins recurring service revenue. Headquartered in Veldhoven, Netherlands, ASML was founded in 1984 and is listed on Euronext Amsterdam and NASDAQ.