Research notes

RPL has released its March 2026 quarterly FUM update. This was a soft quarter (FUM -3%) for RPL as hedge fund investment performance suffered on the back of volatile market conditions. FUM bounced back in Apr-26. We update our RPL numbers for the quarterly following a broad review of our FUM expectations for the CY26. Our CY26/27/28F EPS estimates are revised down -2%, reflecting more conservative FUM assumptions for the current year. Our valuation declines on the back of lower peer multiples and higher cost of capital assumptions. Target price $4.20/sh. We maintain our RPL BUY rating with >20% upside to our price target.

Recent strong tin price growth is expected to continue with electrification, supply constraints in the current geopolitical situation, and enhanced Environmental. Social and Governance (ESG) focus in tin producing jurisdictions. Since delivery of the definitive feasibility study for Oropesa, Spain, in May 2025, (US$156M capex, producing 3,400tpy of tin in concentrate, projected cost US$15,000/t) ELT has advanced the regulatory and administrative approvals. Since the DFS, the tin price has lifted from ˜US$30,000/t to ˜US$50,000/t. We now model US$35,000/t (previously US$30,000/t) for tin to generate a Valuation of A$0.57ps (previously A$0.50) and a Target Price discounted by 10% to A$0.51ps (previously A$0.30).

We revise our forecasts ahead of ANZ’s 1H26 result in May and reflecting on the recent updates provided by NAB and WBC. FY26-28F EPS downgraded by 6-7%. Target price reduced 6% to $30.72/sh. SELL retained given c.-15% downside at current prices, including 4.4% cash yield.

NGI has released its March 2026 quarterly AUM update. This was a broadly solid quarter, in our view, punctuated by a +9% increase in group Ownership adjusted AUM in a volatile market, and robust quarterly net flows into Lighthouse (+US$1.2bn). We update our NGI numbers for the quarterly and also following a broad review of our earnings assumptions. Our FY26F EPS estimate is revised down -3%, reflecting more conservative performance fee assumptions for the current year, while FY27F EPS moves up +2% on higher FUM estimates following today's update. Our PT is largely unchanged at A$2.97. We maintain our NGI BUY rating with >20% upside to our PT.

NAB announced a $1.8bn DRP equity raising, increased loan provisioning, and acceleration of capital software amortisation. Material forecast downgrades as we adjust for today’s announcement and introduce increased conservatism into our modelling. SELL given potential TSR at current prices of -12% (including c.4.2% cash yield).

While the Middle East conflict is a moving feast, WOR estimates a FY26 EBITA impact of $30-40m, which represents 4-5% vs VA consensus ($830m). The company has indicated that it is now “unlikely” to achieve its prior guidance for EBITA growth in FY26. This comes following a softer-than-expected 1H26 segment result. Looking ahead, WOR should see some medium-term support from Middle East repair activity and a broader uplift in global upstream hydrocarbon spending driven by renewed energy security concerns. However, consensus already embeds strong growth into FY27, and risks persist, including project concentration risk associated with larger EPC work, and a structural shift in upstream hydrocarbon capex toward subsea and shale where WOR is underweight. We reduce our EBITA forecasts by ~5% across our forecast period and lower our target price to $11.60 (from $12.20).

Palo Alto Networks, Inc. is a global cybersecurity leader headquartered in Santa Clara, California. Founded in 2005, the company provides advanced security platforms including next-generation firewalls, cloud security via Prisma Cloud, secure access through Prisma Access, and AI-driven security operations with its Cortex platform.

Hermès International, a French high-fashion luxury goods manufacturer, was founded in 1837 by Thierry Hermès. Hermès is known for its high-end craftsmanship. It specialises in leather goods, lifestyle accessories, home furnishings, fragrances, jewellery, watches, and ready-to-wear apparel. Many of its products have an equestrian theme, reflecting Hermès’ heritage in saddle making. Some of Hermès products, notably the Birkin and Kelly handbags, as well as its silk scarves, have attained iconic status in consumer culture.

MPK delivered a maiden MRE of 26.7Mt at 1.54g/t Au for 1.32Moz at the Ferké Gold Project, a material beat vs our estimate of 1Moz at 1.1g/t Au. Importantly, 1.1Moz of the MRE sits within the Measured and Indicated category, forming the basis of our production scenario. We expect 80-90% of this to convert to reserve given the ideal geometry of the resource and its amenability to mining. We see further upside as assumptions are refined (geotechnical inputs, process recoveries and additional drilling) as the project progresses toward PFS. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation and lift our price target to A$2.48ps (previously A$1.92ps).

SKS’s recent contract expansion with its major customer has bolstered the group’s outlook, adding a further $80m of work, and broadening its pipeline of FY27 work in hand to $240m. DC sector demand remains robust, with various operators continuing to expand their capex/build activity over the coming years, and we continue to see a significant pipeline of DC build opportunity into FY27-28+. We upgrade our forecasts by ~13+14% in FY27-28F, reflecting our expectations for SKS to continue building on strong forward levels of work in hand / BAU run-rate into FY27+. We retain our ACCUMULATE rating with a revised PT of $6.70.