Research notes

Kering is a French multinational luxury goods group and one of the world's foremost luxury conglomerates, alongside LVMH and Richemont. Founded in 1963 by François Pinault, its portfolio is concentrated on personal luxury goods. Core houses include Gucci, Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, Balenciaga, Alexander McQueen, and Brioni, alongside jewellery brands Boucheron, Pomellato, DoDo, and Qeelin.

AIH has materially downgraded prospectus forecasts with FY26 EBITDA expected to be ~£20m (-34% vs prospectus forecast £30m). This comes as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has caused a timing impact to the commencement of scheduled work, and, to a lesser extent, some gross margin impact from rising input costs. While the Middle East was flagged as an uncertainty at the 1H result in May, the extent of the downgrade was well beyond any expectations and sees leverage rise to 2.5x (vs covenant 2.75x), though AIH expects this to fall to <2.0x by the end of CY26. The company sounded a confident tone that the project scheduling is a 4-8 week timing issue, with the order book of £133m up +15% from 31 March (£162m including recent acquisitions). That said, a strong set of numbers is needed in 1Q/1H27 to restore confidence. We reduce our FY26 EBITDA forecast by 34% and cut FY27 by 15%. Our target price falls to A$0.85 (from A$1.25).

MX1 posted its 4Q26 results noting modest sales offset by higher contract revenue. The cash position remains tight and with convertible note placement being finalised. We have made downward revisions to our sales forecasts across the period. Our DCF based valuation has decreased to A$0.08 (was A$0.15). We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating noting this is a high-risk investment with the funding arrangement needing to be completed shortly.

BTL’s JunQ outlined progress across multiple important fronts. Delivery of the gas plant and pilot gas sales are on track for Q4 (if not sooner). Maintain Speculative Buy rating with updated A$0.77 target price.

Patience on Final Investment Decision (FID) continues to be rewarded - DYL's decision to defer Tumas in 2025 is increasingly being validated, with uranium contract prices materially stronger than when the project was postponed, supporting improved project economics and potential value at FID. FID drawing closer as Tumas execution readiness advances – Engineering (79%), procurement (76% tendered) and site works continue to progress, while the award of A$34m of civil and concrete contracts post-quarter further de-risks construction and reinforces management's targeted 4Q26 FID timeline. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a price target of A$2.00ps (previously A$2.56ps).

CSC's 2Q26 marked its seventh consecutive quarter of record adjusted EBITDA, underscoring the consistency of its earnings growth and leverage to the copper cycle. Mantoverde's performance was outstanding, running above nameplate for the full quarter and beating on both volumes and costs. Maintain BUY with A$18ps target price.

TOR has released an updated MRE for its high-grade Paris Gold Project, delivering a ~40% increase in contained ounces versus the previous September 2024 estimate. The updated resource stands at 3.47Mt @ 3.1g/t Au for 351koz, an increase of 101koz Au. We continue to view Paris as an attractive asset given its high grade, proximity to existing processing infrastructure, and clear pathway to growth. However, consistent with management's strategy, we see the next stage of value creation being driven by regional discoveries and broader resource growth across the wider project area, rather than through a near-term small-scale development. Following a change in analyst coverage, we maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY with a target price of A$0.68 per share.

A good-looking 2Q26 operational and sales result, with operating revenue of US$4,185m up 28% qoq, 14.1% ahead of Visible Alpha (VA) consensus (US$3,668m) and 18% ahead of us (MorgansF US$3,545m). Roughly half the revenue beat came from marketing activity (lower margin). Strip that out and the beat narrows to ~6% on reported revenue, still healthy. Net debt of ~US$9.3bn was a rare negative, ~US$1.4bn above our estimate, but appears to be a cash flow timing factor. Nothing in Q2 materially changes our view. We update our TP to A$32.50 (from A$33.40) and maintain our HOLD rating.

BETR Entertainment delivered a strong 4Q26 result, with turnover of $404.3m up 1.2% on pcp and gross win increasing 7.5% to $57.1m, reflecting normalisation of racing and sports outcomes and a continuation and deliberate shift toward lower-volatility customers. Margins have continued their recovery trajectory, with gross and net win margins lifting 80bp to 14.1% and 10.9% respectively in the period. Most encouragingly, operating cash flow swung positively to $2.6m inflow, the first positive quarter since 2021, signaling a genuine inflection in the cash generation profile and validating conviction that the business is now self-sustaining at scale. Management has reaffirmed FY27 EBITDA guidance of $13-19m. July turnover growth of 15% (ex-FIFA World Cup) provides us with confidence on the profitability pathway. We maintain our BUY recommendation, with a revised $0.36 12-month target price.