Research notes

ADH provided a FY26 trading update, with Adairs performing ahead of expectations, Mocka largely in line, but ongoing weakness in Focus on Furniture continues to weigh on group earnings. Group EBIT is expected to be down ~1.3%. Given the ongoing weakness in Focus on Furniture and the extended remediation time required, the group intends to recognise an impairment charge of $62-28m ($56-60m after tax). This will be excluded from underlying earnings. We have made downward revisions to our earnings in FY26/27/28. We now have a $1.70 PT and an ACCUMULATE recommendation (previously BUY).

Coverage of Minerals 260 transferred to resources analyst, Flynn Tyson. MI6 has released its maiden Ore Reserve and PFS, confirming Bullabulling as one of Australia's premier undeveloped gold projects. The study outlines ~150kozpa production over the first decade, a 43% IRR, A$2.3bn NPV and a two-year payback period. Importantly, the PFS was completed largely on the previous 4.5Moz resource base, with the upgraded 6.2Moz MRE providing scope for further reserve growth, mine plan optimisation and increased scale through the DFS. We retain our BUY recommendation and A$1.38/share price target.

The JHX share price is up 25% in three months, leaving the business trading on a PER (NTM) of 22x, back towards the pre-AZEK average multiple of 21x. JHX has FY27 guidance in the market for EBITDA growth 4-8% - an achievable ambition. However, by Sep-26 investor attention will turn to 2028 earnings expectations, and with Consensus factoring in +22% EPS growth we see downside. It is our expectation that any US housing recovery will progressively be pushed into FY29/30, with JHX eking out mid to high single digit growth over the medium term. Given JHX is trading back at its average multiple, despite the AZEK acquisition, and combined with the potential downside revisions to consensus forecasts, we are moving to a Trim rating with a $36.00/sh price target.

NWL’s recent win with Morgan Stanley Wealth Management represents strong early validation of NWL’s iHIN offering and expansion into the broker segment of the market, which represents a net-flows tailwind into FY27-FY30. We see NWL’s incremental investment into FY27 as a doubling down on its strategy to drive further long-term scale benefits. We reiterate our Accumulate rating with a A$27.50 PT.

Despite a severe decline in 4Q26 China Label (CL) infant formula (IF) sales, A2M has slightly upgraded its FY26 NPAT guidance and materially upgraded cashflow. Encouragingly, the balance of the portfolio offset the CL IF decline. Importantly, IF supply and stock levels are now approaching more normal levels, but A2M will likely need to lift FY27 marketing spend to win back customers who switched to other brands while it was out of stock. We have made modest upgrades to FY26 and minor downgrades to FY27/28. Overall, A2M’s update was better than feared. While we have trimmed our forecasts, we expect strong earnings growth from FY27 onwards. We maintain our ACCUMULATE rating with a revised price target of A$8.30 (was A$8.70).

Silver Mines (ASX: SVL) is advancing the 100%-owned Bowdens Silver Project in the Central West region of NSW, Australia's largest undeveloped silver project and one of the largest primary silver development assets globally, underpinned by a 334Moz AgEq Mineral Resource and 71.7Moz Ag Ore Reserve. Our thesis rests on what we view as an increasingly compelling asymmetry in Bowdens’ risk-reward profile, underpinned by exceptional leverage to a strengthening silver price, a technically mature development plan and a more clearly defined permitting pathway. Despite this improving outlook, the stock continues to trade at a material discount to our assessed intrinsic value. We see the improving silver market, permitting progress and the approaching DFS collectively driving a period of meaningful value creation. We initiate coverage with a SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation and a target price of A$0.40 per share.

KSL has given an FY26 guidance update. FY26 earnings guidance is now for NPAT of PGK132m-PGK138m, which is up 15%-20% on the pcp (PGK114m), but comfortably below (-17%) our previous expectations. Overall, near-term earnings headwinds appear to have increased for KSL, albeit we acknowledge the card acquiring interoperability issue is a one-off. We lower our KSL FY26F/FY27F EPS estimates by 16%/7%, reflecting the various earnings headwinds flagged in the update along with more conservative assumptions for future years. As a result, our price target falls to A$1.48 (from A$1.57); however, with a total shareholder return (TSR) of >20%, we maintain our BUY call.

ASX has recently released its monthly trading activity report for June 2026. It was a mixed trading month overall for ASX, in our view, with higher cash markets activity (+54% volume on pcp), a downturn in raisings and stronger average daily futures/options contracts in June. Our FY27-FY28 EPS forecasts increased by ~+2% factoring in the recent trading activity. Our price target is increased to A$53.90 (from A$51.50). HOLD maintained.

Qantas's post-COVID balance sheet strengthening and cost discipline have positioned it to absorb the current fuel cost shock and consumer softness with genuine resilience. We forecast 2H26 PBT to be down on pcp as fuel and economic conditions bite, with FY27 forecast to deliver a moderate uplift. We view FY27 as a transition year for Qantas with higher growth expected from FY28 onwards as oil prices, refining margins and demand normalise. Structural growth drivers (fleet renewal, Project Sunrise, Loyalty scaling toward FY30 target) remain intact. We initiate coverage with an ACCUMULATE rating and an A$11.50ps price target.

Nike, Inc. is a global leader in athletic footwear, apparel and equipment with an estimated market share in 2023 of 39% (investing.com). Nike’s iconic ‘Swoosh’ logo is one of the most recognisable consumer brands in the world. Nike sells directly through over 1,000 retail stores and ecommerce platforms, as well as through wholesale channels. It employs a contract manufacturing model.