Research notes

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories.

Starbucks Corporation is the largest retailer of specialty coffee in the world. Starbucks was founded in 1971 as a retailer of coffee beans and ground coffee, operating from a single store in Seattle’s Pike Place Market. After it was acquired by Howard Schultz in 1987, the business grew exponentially. Its global footprint now comprises over 38,000 stores in more than 80 markets, with Starbucks Reserve ® Roastery locations in Chicago, Milan, New York, Seattle, Shanghai and Tokyo.

LAU’s AGM pointed to a softer start to FY27, with freight volumes now tracking lower than the pcp as rising interest rates and cost-of-living pressures weigh on consumer demand. This appears to be a step down from the flat volume outlook provided in August, although we note some volume contractions were expected (stemming from citrus/avocado seasonality). Positively, LAU’s secondary freight rollout is progressing to plan, while broader consolidation of providers in the market is driving heightened pipeline activity. >We trim our FY27F NPAT by ~4%, reflecting more conservative transport volumes, partly offset by higher fuel levy recoveries (which continue to capture diesel price rises post Jun’26). Our $0.80/sh price target and ACCUMULATE rating are unchanged.

JHX delivered a clean 2Q27 beat (vs MorgansF and Consensus). Adjusted (Adj.) net sales from continuing operations of US$1,428m (+24% yoy) was at the high end of guidance and 3.0% ahead of our forecast, Adj. EBITDA of US$455m beat us by 9.8% and consensus by 5.1% at a 31.8% margin (up 450bps and above the top of guidance), and Adj. EPS of US42c rose 68% yoy. The more notable was the outlook. JHX reaffirmed (rather than raised) its full-year guidance and lifted its free cash flow target to more than US$650m, so a strong 1H27 is absorbed by a more prudent 2H27 - the implied 2H27 points to Adj. EBITDA of about US$643m at a c.27.8% margin and net sales going backwards c.3% on the pcp. >Our forecasts remain largely unchanged, while our target price increases to A$45.75 (from A$43.00) on higher peer multiples. We maintain ACCUMULATE: JHX continues to grow well above its end markets, and a prudent guidance against a weak backdrop leaves room to continue beating expectations.

MQG delivered a record first-half NPAT of A$2,478m, up 50% on the pcp and 6% ahead of company-compiled consensus (A$2,338m). >In our view, this was a solid result, with CGM again the standout performer, more than offsetting a weaker Macquarie Capital outcome and a slight miss in BFS. However, the beat was also helped by a lower-than-normal tax rate (22.5% vs 31.4% in the pcp) and asset-sale gains, taking some shine off the headline figure. >We adjust our MQG FY27F/FY28F cash earnings by -1% to +4%, with higher CGM forecasts partly offset by weaker Macquarie Capital forecasts. We increase our PT to A$257.65 (from A$255.80). We maintain our HOLD, with <10% upside to our PT.

1H27 fuel costs have increased to ~$3.75bn from $3.6bn at the FY26 result, reflecting elevated oil prices and jet fuel crack spreads. Despite the higher fuel burden, travel demand remains resilient, with Domestic and International TRASK expected to increase 8-10% in 1H27, as QAN continues to offset cost pressures through higher fares and strong load factors. >Domestic capacity has been reduced further, with Group Domestic ASKs now expected to decline 3% in 1H27 and 4% in 3Q27, whilst International Capacity for 1H27 is increasing modestly to +4%. >We downgrade our recommendation to HOLD (previously ACCUMULATE) with a reduced price target of A$9.60ps (previously A$10.60ps).

AVH’s 3Q26 result was strong, with revenue up 53% YoY, opex flat and net cash use of just US$0.6m. Operating leverage has now shown up in the numbers, and cash flow breakeven looks to be a quarter early. >Guidance was upgraded and the going concern flag is gone, largely removing the risks behind our cautious stance. The bear case has thinned materially, though the US$60m debt balance remains a meaningful drag and risk. >The recovery came faster than we expected; we were too focused on near-term funding risk and underestimated how quickly operating leverage would kick in. But at these prices and with debt still to work through, we want to see a sustained breakeven before turning more positive. We move to Hold with a A$5.00 TP.

BMC has released an updated Feasibility Study (FS) for the Kudz Ze Kayah (KZK) Project in Yukon, Canada, providing an economic refresh. The Ore Reserve, mine plan, flowsheet and production schedule are unchanged, while costs have been reset to a Jun-26 basis and prices to long-term consensus. >Economics remain compelling: post-tax NPV5 of US$1.70bn (~A$2.43bn) and IRR of 54%, with a 1.4-year payback. LOM EBITDA is US$4.58bn, with post-tax FCF of ~US$392m pa during operations. Higher capex and opex are more than offset by stronger metal prices. >We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating with price target of A$5.49 per share.

The 2H26 earnings decline missed consensus expectations, almost entirely due to substantially higher credit impairment charges. >NAB further built its expected loan loss provisions and has discounted another DRP to protect capital, signalling concerns for weaker asset quality ahead. >12-month target price reduced 4% to $34.19/sh, due to forecast changes. TRIM retained, given potential TSR at current prices of c.-8%.