Research notes

MAP has raised A$5m in fresh capital via an institutional placement, including further strategic investment from Sonic Healthcare. The raise follows an unsuccessful private equity (PE) approach for MAP's testing and supplements businesses. Quantum unknown but commentary implied a valuation higher than its undisturbed pre-raise market cap of $38.4m. Cost reductions sharpen the path to breakeven and sales continue to grow, but dilution remains a drag. Investors will want to see traction in upcoming quarterlies before turning more positive. Despite a shorter path to profitability, dilution and risk pares our price target to A$0.12 (from A$0.15). SPECULATIVE BUY retained.

Coverage of Medallion Metals transferred to resources analyst, Flynn Tyson. MM8 has quickly progressed from developer to near-term producer, systematically advancing the Ravensthorpe Gold Project (RGP) as the Cosmic Boy Concentrator (CBC) nears commissioning, with visibility on first production and cash flow generation continuing to improve. We upgrade our recommendation to BUY (previously SPECULATIVE BUY) and increase our price target to A$0.99/share (from A$0.87/share), reflecting continued project advancement and revisions to our production assumptions.

S32 has agreed to sell its entire ali business for total consideration of US$5.6bn (US$4.1bn upfront), and transfer of US$1.2bn closure/rehab liabilities. Our view on S32’s aluminium sale is genuinely mixed. It leaves S32 a simpler and, in important respects, a better business, but also a smaller and less valuable one. Total value of up to ~US$6.8bn, which sits at a discount to consensus/Morgans valuations of US$8.8-9.2bn. We reduce our valuation on S32’s ali assets to in line with the agreed Alcoa deal, and shift our valuation methodology to a blended NAV:EBITDA valuation of A$4.50 (from A$5.00). As a result we update our rating to HOLD (from Accumulate).

OCL’s largest and longest standing customer, the Australian Department of Defence, has elected not to renew its Upgrade and Support (USP) agreement for Objective ECM, a relationship that has been in place for over 25 years. Whilst OCL expects no impacts to earnings in FY26, the group has flagged that the impact from the loss in revenue will see FY26 ARR end the period “in line with FY25” on a constant currency basis (i.e. ~A$120m Pre FY26 FX headwinds). Rebasing our forecasts for OCL’s revised FY26 ARR, our NPAT estimates reduce by ~22-23% in FY27-28F. Whilst this is a disappointing and unexpected update, post our revisions OCL is trading on FY27F P/E of 21x, with a share price at 5-years lows. We therefore reiterate our Buy rating with a revised PT of $11.50/sh.

PME has re-gained positive momentum (MoMo) off its multi-year lows. The move reflects a closing of the value gap flagged in our recent note (1 June), not any change to the underlying business. With a >50% price move in June and heavy buying across the network in the mid to low $100s, taking some profits on new and overweight positions is hard to argue against, but absolutely view maintaining positions in PME as a core growth holding. With the near-term upside/downside skew now less favourable, happy to lock in some outsized profits while maintaining a core growth holding. TP upgraded to A$230.

In our view, CKF reported a solid result in light of tough conditions. NPAT grew 17.6%, at the mid-point of guidance. COGS are expected to be flat to modest in FY27, which is better than feared. KFC Australia 1H27-to-date SSS of +4.0% is a stronger-than-expected start. Europe disappointed with early 1H27 SSS tracking deeply negative, though attributable to factors outside CKF's control. Balance sheet remains strong with ND/EBITDA of 0.8x, keeping CKF well placed to fund the German expansion, accelerate Kwench rollout, and pursue further German bolt-on acquisitions. While the composition of our forecasts has changed, the net profit impact is minor. We believe CKF remains undervalued for its growth profile. Despite the tough consumer environment, CKF proves resilient regardless of numerous challenges and continues to deliver solid growth. We retain our BUY recommendation and revise our price target to A$10.60 from A$12.50.

Ahead of MSV's FY26 result in August, we have revised our forecasts to reflect a stronger-than-expected operating performance through the year. We marginally increase our EBITDA estimates for FY26 (~2%), with higher increases for FY27 and beyond underpinned by higher average operating rig assumptions. On the balance sheet, we reduce our assumed debt drawdown and accelerate the repayment timeline from five years to three, reflecting the company's improved cash generation capacity. Taken together, these changes support an upgrade in our recommendation to SPECULATIVE BUY (from ACCUMULATE) and we increase our price target to A$0.60ps (from A$0.55ps).

FDA has approved the CAP24 surgical paddle lead, allowing US commercialisation. We view the approval as a key milestone and strategically important, as it not only expands the addressable market, but also enhances the productivity potential of SLD’s commercial platform by broadening procedural coverage within existing accounts rather than requiring a materially larger salesforce. While management expects only a gradual revenue contribution following a phased launch beginning in 2HCY26, we believe the approval enhances the longer-term growth profile of the business and further improves the scalability of its commercial platform. We make no changes to forecasts or our A$2.94 DCF-derived target price. SPECULATIVE BUY maintained.

Sizeable (but short-term) catalysts have seen AEL materially de-rate to a level we view as unsustainable given the company’s forward earnings profile. The combination of disappointing exploration results and softer spot gas prices has seen our valuation decline 17%, against a share price that has weakened 57% since AEL’s February high. ECSP Phase 1 (A$240-270m AEL share) has been de-risked by its Artisan acquisition, which was always a logical acquisition. Additional well results could still be meaningful catalysts, but are no longer a risk to AEL’s growth profile, giving us long-term conviction that value is on offer. AEL is trading at a deep discount to its chunky (and de-risked) earnings platform. We maintain a Buy rating with an A$3.00 target price.

ACAD (NEU’s marketing partner) has received a positive opinion from the European committee which recommends medicines. The market view was the resubmission of the data (previously received a negative opinion) to the Committee was unlikely to receive a positive opinion. Although marketing authorisation (approval) is not guaranteed, now it is highly likely. The share price has rallied ~30% on this news. Next catalyst is the ACAD 2Q26 report expected mid-August where the market expects continued solid sales momentum. The consensus target price is A$23.74.