Research notes

ASX’s FY26 result was in line with expectations. The overall operational performance was positive, showing solid top-line momentum at the group level (+13% on pcp) and growth across all four segments. An elevated near- and medium-term cost profile, however, remains the key drag on the bottom line, on our forecasts. Our FY27-FY29 EPS estimates increase marginally (+2%) factoring in the result and better than previously forecast trading volumes across cash markets and Futures/OTC. Price target increases to A$57.80 (from A$53.90). Hold maintained.

ORA's FY26 result was slightly softer than our forecasts but largely in line with consensus. Key positives: Cans continued to perform well with EBIT up 7% on the back of 6% volume growth. The balance sheet remains strong, supporting the resumption of the on-market buyback following the result. Key negatives: The near-term outlook for Saverglass remains challenging. ORA also recorded a non-cash impairment of $742.8m following a reassessment of the business's earnings outlook relative to expectations at the time of its acquisition in 2023. We decrease FY27-29F underlying EBIT by 5-10%. Our target price decreases to $1.45 (from $1.55) and we maintain our HOLD rating. With the outlook for the Glass business remaining challenging and group earnings expected to decline in FY27, a recovery still appears some way off. While management is implementing initiatives to restore growth, progress is likely to be constrained until consumer demand for wine and spirits improves.

Siemens AG is a technology company which engages in the areas of automation and digitalisation. It operates through the following segments: Digital Industries, Smart Infrastructure, Mobility, Siemens Healthineers, and Siemens Financial Services.

EBITDA was slightly below and Free Cash slightly above consensus expectations. FY27 DPS growth guidance was in-line with consensus, but guidance on Free Cash coverage surprised by implying approximately no FC growth in FY27. The Free Cash guidance indicates TCL is a slower growth stock than implied in its trading yield. If TCL were repriced to APA Group’s yield the share price would trade down towards our $12.53 target price. TRIM into share price strength.

TWE’s FY26 result came in above the top end of its original EBITS guidance range and NPAT beat consensus expectations. While FY27 is a transition year, we think guidance will prove conservative and could be upgraded at the 1H27 result given the progress on inventory rebalancing (ahead of expectations) and the strong depletions growth across key brands. Strategies to improve TWE’s performance are well underway and should result in it returning to solid earnings growth and a strong balance sheet in FY28. We have upgraded our forecasts. With a multi-year transformation program in place, strong management and the strength of the Penfolds brand, we reiterate our BUY rating with a new A$7.30 PT.

We retain an ACCUMULATE, whilst reducing our target to $1.33/sh (from $1.36) following a FY26 result that was in line on FFO and DPS, and FY27 guidance of 8.8cps that sits 2% below the pcp and c.4% below our prior forecast. The shortfall is entirely financing. Comparable NPI growth is guided at +4.0%, but higher debt costs more than offset it. Distributions are held at 8.6c, a 7.1% yield, though at c.98% of FFO this leaves limited retained earnings to fund the developments. Like most of its peers, HDN cannot grow FFO (ps) while debt costs transition higher towards market, something we expect to persist through FY27 and into FY28. Hedging at 68% with 0.8 years of tenor leaves limited protection, and selective asset recycling is now the stated route back below the gearing midpoint. Against that, NTA rose 6.1% to $1.56 in what remains a deep and liquid physical market, whilst the securities trade at a 23% discount (to NTA). On a 7.1% yield with that asset backing, we still see value.

TLS’s FY26 result and FY27 guidance were largely as expected, with FY26 itself coming in at the middle-to-top end of guidance. This largely in-line result wasn’t enough for the marginal buyer and TLS shares ended the day down 3%. We lift FY27/28 EPS by ~4%. Our target price is reduced to $5 as we remove our previously applied premium to valuation. Hold recommendation retained.

AMC’s FY26 result was broadly in line with expectations, although the outlook was slightly weaker. Key positives: Volumes turned positive (+0.5%) in 4Q26 vs -1.5% in 3Q26; full-year synergies of US$285m were ahead of AMC’s ~US$270m target. Key negatives: FY26 free cash flow of US$1.3bn fell short of management’s US$1.5-1.6bn target due to higher-than-expected working capital related to the Middle East conflict; guidance for the stub period (six months to Dec-26) of underlying EPS of US$1.80-1.90 was below our forecast of US$1.94. We decrease CY27-28F underlying EPS by 3-4%, mainly due to higher net interest expense. Our target price declines slightly to A$65.30 (from A$65.40) and, with a 12-month forecast TSR of 4%, we downgrade our rating to HOLD (from ACCUMULATE).

The tungsten market has split, with Chinese restrictions leading to price premiums at Rotterdam and Baltimore, where the price for ammonium paratungstate (APT) has lifted from sub-US$40,000/t in 2024/25 to currently US$290,000/t. EQR reported relatively weak production at both its mines, with 28,315 metric tonne units (mtu) produced in the June 2026 quarter, and full year production of 118,945mtu (1,169.4t). Our expectation is for close to 300,000mtu in FY2027. EQR has announced that it will seek to list on the NASDAQ or NYSE. Almonty Industries (NASDAQ:ALM), also listed on the ASX, and Frankfurt, and with production aspirations comparable with EQR, has a market capitalisation of US$4.3 billion at US$13.35ps, ~4 times EQR’s Market Cap.

VYS is acquiring water management business Welltech for $60m, including deferred consideration, at ~5x FY26 EBIT or ~6x FY27F EBIT. The acquisition appears strategically sound as it materially increases the annuity-style earnings base, with high returns, and diversifies earnings away from the legacy hydrogeological drilling business. We lift our FY27/FY28 EPS forecasts by +13%/+16%. Moreover, positive water pricing indications in the Pilbara lead us to increase our assumed price of water for VAM to $5.50/kL, from $4/kL. Our target price rises to $1.40 (from $1.10).