Research notes

McDonald’s Corporation (MCD.NYS) is a global QSR (Quick Service Restaurant) business known for signature menu items such as the Big Mac, Quarter Pounder, Chicken McNuggets, and Fries. The Golden Arches logo is one of the most instantly recognisable symbols of American consumer culture in the world.

Chipotle Mexican Grill is the largest fast-casual restaurant chain in the US with total system sales of US$9.9bn in 2023. Chipotle’s store network is mainly company-owned and not franchised (apart from the Middle East). Chipotle sells burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads made using fresh, high-quality ingredients, with a selling proposition built around competitive prices, high-quality food sourcing, speed of service, and convenience. It had a footprint of nearly 3,440 stores at the end of 2023, heavily indexed to the United States, although it maintains a small presence in Canada, the UK, France, and Germany.

RDY’s 1H26 result and revised outlook came in softer than expected, with Underlying EBITDA of $17.5m / Cash EBITDA of $7.5m ~6% behind MorgF. Whilst RDY’s enterprise strategy remains on track, the group indicated that increased churn in 1H26 along with more protracted implementation/sale conversion have led to an FY26 guidance downgrade and the withdrawal of its longer-term targets. Whilst we downgrade our FY26-17 EBITDA forecasts by 10-20% reflecting revised guidance, given RDY’s robust pipeline, potential catalysts (VIC TAFE decision and likely increased corporate appeal), we move to a SPECULATIVE BUY rating, with a revised price target of $2.20/sh (previously $3.00/sh).

CHL’s 1H26 result highlighted the ongoing transition underway within the business, with lower opex and stronger unit economics from the MyWay mutual and membership-led strategy. Whilst GTV decline (-17%) was a result negative, we acknowledge some of the contraction was due to CHL deliberately pulling back low-margin volume. CHL Revenue of ~A$19m was ~5% down on the pcp, With the seasonally stronger period now underway, a deeper ANZ partnership funnel (JB Group) and future bookings of ~A$32m at period-end, we expect the business to have an improved half-on-half performance.

RIC’s 1H26 result was stronger than expected and IPF is off to a solid start. RIC’s outlook comments were stronger than expected for Bulk Stockfeeds and IPF but softer for the Packaged Feeds & Ingredients (PF&I). Pleasingly, IPF synergies have been upgraded to A$15m from A$7m previously. We have revised our forecasts. RIC’s new FY26-28 Growth Plan will be released at its Investor Strategy Day on 10-11 March. We view this event as the next catalyst for the stock. We remain positive on the group’s future prospects and maintain an ACCUMULATE rating with A$3.20 price target.

PPE’s 1H26 result reflected its streamlined business, following the sale of its Health and Community operations in late CY25. Ongoing operating EBITDA of $10.5m declined 9.2% yoy, whilst increasing 46% hoh. Key P&L metrics improved hoh, while still falling short of the prior year, suggesting any earnings recovery is still unproven. To this end, we continue to believe that PPE is producing cyclically low earnings, with the improvement hoh still too early to be called a trend. Whilst tentative, we see some early signs of improvement and reiterate our Speculative Buy recommendation and $0.95/sh price target.

EGH reaffirmed FY26 guidance, which will see EBITDA growing 20%-25% (vs pcp) and Underlying EPS growing 7.5%-10%, a function of a) 5%-7% same-store rent growth and b) full earnings contributions from the $80m of assets acquired since CY25. In EGH we see sector leading earnings growth, Government backed revenues, and attractive valuation (trading at NTA). The return outlook, relative to risk, remains attractive as the secure income stream and valuation discount mitigates some of the risks, whilst the modest market cap means acquisitions can materially improve earnings. On this basis we reiterate our Buy recommendation with an $0.85/sh price target.

BETR Entertainment’s (BBT) interim result was impacted by an unusually unfavourable trading period for bookmakers, particularly across racing during the peak Spring Carnival. While 2Q26 margins were heavily affected by customer-friendly outcomes, trading has normalised since December, and the business enters 2H26 with improved operating leverage following the completion of its major brand and marketing investment phase. Notwithstanding recent earnings pressure, we believe the company’s 2H26 and FY27 guidance is achievable, supported by normalising gross margins, improved promotional efficiency and a more disciplined cost base. We reduce our earnings forecasts across FY26-27F. We maintain a Buy recommendation, however our target price reduces to 40c.

Light & Wonder (ASX: LNW) delivered an in-line result, with strong Gaming and iGaming performance offsetting continued softness in SciPlay. Grover continues to track ahead of expectations, while North American (NA) outright sales hit a record. We were encouraged by management’s articulation of AI as both an offensive growth lever and a defensive moat. Net/net, we view AI as enhancing LNW’s competitive edge rather than eroding it, and the recent share price weakness appears disconnected from the durability of its land-based earnings base. We revise our EPSA estimates by both -3% and -2% respectively across FY26-27F, reflecting slightly improved Gaming and iGaming momentum, offset by SciPlay and lower buyback assumptions. In our view, LNW trades on an undemanding valuation given: (1) supportive NA EGM demand; (2) litigation overhang behind it; (3) a balance sheet set to delever through 2026 (MorgansF: ~2.9x); and (4) Grover providing a high-return, recurring revenue vertical growing ahead of expectations. We upgrade to BUY, however lower our price target to A$195 (previously A$200).

1H26 result was broadly in line with expectations, with FY26 shaping as a foundation year ahead of a step-change in ounce growth from FY27 and beyond, underpinned by ~10 years of reserves. Key positive: Continued uplift in the price of gold has delivered a material uplift in revenue (+50% pcp) and underlying EBITDA (+92%) despite ounce production effectively being flat pcp. Key negative: legal settlement fees regarding Plutonic’s K2 prospect (A$49m) eroded NPAT which was not fully captured in our forecasts. We maintain our BUY rating and A$14.56ps price target.