Research notes

AIH has completed the acquisition of Matrix Composites & Engineering (MCE) via scheme of arrangement for ~A$90m (40c cash per share). In our view, the deal is strategically sound - AIH and MCE are #2 and #3 in the oligopoly subsea buoyancy market - with the merged entity rivalling Balmoral (#1). However, in our view, AIH has paid above full value, with MCE expected to deliver breakeven EBITDA initially and pricing synergies likely to take time. Incorporating MCE into our forecasts, we downgrade FY26/27 NPAT by 3%/12% and reduce our target price to A$1.25 (from A$1.45). In FY28, we increase our NPAT forecast by +15%.

JHX has delivered a strong set of results for 1QFY27, beating consensus (and MorgansF) EBITDA forecasts by c.9% at the mid-point and prior guidance by c.10%. The outperformance was largely attributed to execution and above-market growth, rather than an improving US housing market. The result sets our baseline expectations higher, whilst we expect the business to follow the traditional earnings seasonality (bigger Jun/Mar quarters). This result is better than expected. Higher growth in FY27 reduces the heavy lifting required in FY28 to achieve consensus’ US$1.45/sh EPS forecast. On this basis, we have increased our earnings and subsequently our valuation target to A$40/sh, upgrading to a HOLD (previously Trim).

MQG has hosted its AGM and given a 1Q27 update. Overall, MQG pointed to "satisfactory" trading conditions in 1Q27, while Greg Ward - currently Head of BFS - will replace the retiring Shemara Wikramanayake as CEO. We lift our MQG FY27F/FY28F EPS by 1%-3% on slightly stronger CGM earnings forecasts. Our price target is increased to ~A$255 (from A$248) on our earnings changes. MQG is a quality franchise and a proven performer, but with <10% upside to our target price, we maintain our Hold call.

NWH is a key pick heading into August reporting season. We expect strong FY26 earnings with our forecast ($284m) slightly ahead of VA consensus ($281m) and towards the upper end of guidance ($275-285m). For FY27, we expect NWH to guide ahead of consensus (MorgansF $315m vs consensus $308m). Importantly, the capex cycle in resources shows signs of accelerating with two major projects across gallium (Alcoa) and lithium (Covalent) approved in the last week alone, following last month’s announcement that PLS is committing pre-FID capex in anticipation of P2000. We leave our FY26 forecasts unchanged but increase FY27-28 EBITA by +4%. This comes as we assume stronger growth in EMIT and, within MET, we now assume a full replacement of revenues from the major Fimiston contract from other smaller projects. Our target price rises to $8.00 (from $6.60).

GDG has provided a 4Q26 update. We saw this as a strong result highlighted by record Investment Bond sales, and importantly, Evidentia beating expectations after a run of consecutive misses. We lift our GDG EPS by +1%-5% over the forecast period, on higher sales and FUM expectations in both key divisions. Our price target is set at A$6.89 (previously A$6.28). We maintain our BUY recommendation, with >20% TSR upside.

Rigs spinning up - Average operating rigs increased to 62 in 4Q and exited FY26 at 65. MSV and our forecasts expect further rig utilisation through 1H27. Margins are holding strong - Rig mobilisation costs pushed the 4Q EBITDA margin below 20% for the first time in FY26, to 18%. Even so, the full-year EBITDA margin finished at 20.6%, up materially from 13.1% in FY25. Frankly attractive - With a net cash balance sheet, strong cash generation and management explicitly highlighting capital management, we see growing potential for another attractive fully franked dividend outcome at the FY26 result. We move to an ACCUMULATE rating (previously SPECULATIVE BUY) due to recent share price strength and an unchanged price target of A$0.60ps.

MME’s 4Q26 trading update was highlighted by: 1) the gross loan book reaching A$2bn (+9.5% on the sequential quarter); 2) originations of A$368m (+13% on the sequential quarter); 3) a return to normalised profitability over the second half of the fiscal year (normalised NPAT of +A$0.5m); and 4) asset quality remaining sound (net credit losses in 4Q26 of 2.4%). Our price target remains unchanged at A$0.21 and we maintain our Speculative Buy recommendation.

Alongside the appointment of a new CFO, CWY informed the market that it expects its underlying EBIT for FY26 to be approximately $470m (around the mid-point of its guidance range). This is a touch better than our previous forecast ($465m) and Visible Alpha consensus ($468m). We update our FY26 forecast to reflect this update, adding 1% to our FY26F EBIT, which leverages into a c.2% uplift to FY26F EPS. We assume the change has no impact on future years. Our 12-month target price remains $2.80/sh. BUY retained.

A strong finish to FY26, with Sierra Gorda, Cannington, both manganese units and the Brazilian operations all beating full-year production guidance. Cannington was the big swing factor, jumping 29% qoq on restored mining rates and higher grades. Group sales rose 15% qoq as rail access returned at Cannington and manganese/Mozal stockpiles were sold down, with a ~US$200m 2H26 working capital release flagged (vs a US$130m 1H build), a strong set-up for the August result alongside lower capex sunk. Partially offsetting, Sierra Gorda and manganese unit costs are running ~5-10% above guidance, and Australia Manganese FY27 guidance is under review. We maintain our ACCUMULATE rating and A$4.70 target price.

NGI has released its June 2026 (4Q26) AUM update. We saw this as another broadly solid quarter, marked by a +6% increase in group ownership-adjusted AUM despite volatile markets, and with continued robust quarterly net flows into Lighthouse (+US$690m). We revise our NGI FY26F/FY27F EPS by +1%/-2%/-4%, with higher AUM forecasts offset by slightly lower operating margin assumptions. Our price target is reduced to A$3.13 (previously A$3.39). With >20% upside remaining to our PT, we maintain our BUY recommendation.