Research notes

Founded in Spain, Inditex (ITX.MAD) began in 1963 when AmancioOrtega opened a small dressmaking workshop. Twelve years later, the first Zara store was opened in Spain, signalling Ortega’s transition from maker to retailer. In 1985, Inditex brought all its companies together under the one banner, making it an official retail conglomerate. The brand continued to grow by expanding worldwide, adding new brands to the group and going public on the Madrid Stock Exchange. Now, the group features seven brands, operating over 5,800 stores in 213 markets worldwide.

Cash surprise drives dividend beat - Strong operational delivery and a year-end cash balance of A$485m supported a fully franked 30cps final dividend, materially ahead of MorgansF (20cps) and consensus (14cps). Operational performance exceeded expectations - NHC delivered record saleable coal production of 11.5Mt and coal sales of 11.8Mt, exceeding the top end of guidance and demonstrating the resilience of its operations despite disruptions throughout the year. Strong run, balanced view - NHC shares have rallied 60% YTD, supported by stronger coal prices and improving market sentiment. While we remain constructive on thermal coal fundamentals, the recent share price performance may provide an opportunity for investors to crystallise some gains. We maintain our HOLD rating with an increased price target of A$6.05 per share.

Three announcements in four days: a new CEO, an NIH-funded Expanded Access Program (EAP) for NUZ-001, and a partial redemption of the Obsidian convertible notes. The thesis is unchanged, but the risk profile is tidier heading into the topline readout in 2Q’CY27 which is the major near-term value inflection point. The CEO hire is a major point of interest. Dr Chris Bremer brings more than US$1bn of executed licensing deals, which reads to us as pre-positioning for a partnering outcome rather than a solo launch. We view this positively. We have re-outlined the risked weights and the de-risking path in full. No change to our SPECULATIVE BUY rating or A$0.20 target price.

Our Valuation of A3.3cps is underpinned by the Horden Lake Cu-Ni-Au-Pt-Pd-Ag-Co deposit, Quebec. Metallurgical testwork confirms copper recoveries of >90%, with 50-70% of the precious metals (Au/Pt/Pd/Ag) recovered, predominantly in a 24% Cu concentrate, and recovery of 50% of contained nickel to an attractive 12% Ni concentrate, containing recovered cobalt. Quebec is an attractive exploration and mining jurisdiction, ranking well on the various studies into investment attractiveness and corruption. Hydroelectric power dominates the Quebec grid, with electricity amongst the lowest cost in the world. The Quebec government supports flow-through share financing. Its Natural Resource and Energy Fund for direct equity investment in projects has C$1 billion. The levels of metal prices and price expectations are critical for PVT, with approximately 50% of the in-situ metal value attributable to copper. There is potential to increase the Horden Lake resource. Exploration is in progress on the Belleterre tenements for high grade gold and polymetallic deposits.

Following the update on 3/09 that VYS was in discussion with the NewGround vendors to extend the completion date of the transaction agreement, VYS confirmed today that both parties have mutually agreed not to proceed with an extension, and the agreement will therefore be terminated. Unwinding NewGround from our forecasts sees PBT fall by 14% in FY27 and 19% in FY28 (first full year of ownership). At EPS we reduce our forecast by 11% and FY28 by 14%. Unwinding the cash consideration and noting the recent $65m raise – which included ~$15m for growth initiatives and working capital – the company has significant balance sheet optionality. Our target price falls in line with our earnings downgrades to $1.20 (from $1.40). The stock is now trading on 21x PE in Welltech’s first full year of ownership (FY28), with a gold-plated balance sheet. No value is being ascribed to the asset management business with catalysts imminent in relation to offtake and the 5C licence.

We review the CEO’s new long-term incentive targets (upside potential if achieved without heightened capital intensity), Network’s recent debt issue and risk-free rate influences, and the reactivated buyback program. Forecast changes at the group level are immaterial. Target price $3.50/sh (-6 cps). Potential TSR at current prices of 0% (including 6.3% yield based on upper end of FY27 DPS guidance). HOLD retained.

RMS is expected to release FY27 guidance and an updated outlook to FY30 in Sep-26, following execution of the EPC contract for the Mt Magnet mill expansion, providing greater clarity on project costs and timing. Following an analyst change, we retain our BUY recommendation with a revised price target of A$4.74 per share.

Given its share price rally into today’s announcement, investors were clearly hoping for more than GNC achieving the mid-point of its FY26 guidance range. An additional A$30m of systems transformation costs didn’t help sentiment either. However, a larger than expected 2026/27 grain crop, improving canola crush and grain trading margins and A$12m of Business Transformation benefits, all bode well for higher earnings in FY27. We have materially upgraded our forecasts. Following share price weakness and given an improved FY27 outlook, we move to an ACCUMULATE rating with a A$7.48 price target. While GNC is a hedge on geopolitics and rising grain prices, the key risk is El Niño.

After a long suspension (since 22 August 2025), CTD has resumed trading after lodging its FY25 and FY26 audited accounts. Material earnings restatements have been made. Following years of overcharging clients, CTD will refund them A$246m by 30 September 2027, supported by its new A$175m debt facility. FY27 guidance will be provided at the AGM. We forecast earnings to fall materially due to a higher AUD, reduced special project work and higher corporate costs. Earnings growth should resume from FY28 given new management’s strategy. The acceleration of new client wins in the first two months of FY27 is encouraging. Given what has gone on, it will take time for confidence to rebuild and risks remain. However, we think CTD is a turnaround story under new leadership with material upside potential if it executes. We resume coverage with a BUY and A$3.06 PT.

ARX has reported positive interim results from the MASTRR Registry showing low infection rates which we expect will support greater surgeon adoption. We sit towards the upper end of the FY27 guidance which has revenue forecast to grow at 18% (mid-point). We have made no changes to forecasts or target price. The share price continues to languish despite operational and clinical progress; with 45% upside to our target price, we think ARX is undervalued. Buy.