Research notes

With G2E in Las Vegas this week, and ahead of its FY26 result on 12 November, we have made minor revisions to our earnings forecasts. We lower our FY26-27 fee per day and North American outright unit forecasts and our FY26 Product Madness bookings. We also lift our AUD/USD assumption and increase our buy-back assumptions. Our NPATA forecasts fall by c.1% across FY26-27F. EPSA is broadly unchanged in FY26 and up c.1% in FY27, reflecting higher buy-backs. Our 12-month target price decreases to A$69.00 (prev. A$70.00). We maintain our Accumulate recommendation.

TNC continues to build value across both hubs. At Mt Oxide, drilling has extended Aquila’s high-grade mineralisation to ~300m depth, while Chidna adds northern strike potential. At Cloncurry, an ~18% CCP resource uplift amid a backdrop of accelerating regional M&A reinforces the strategic value of TNC’s assets. >Following an analyst change, we maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a revised target price of A$1.31 per share.

LTR has approved the A$389m Kathleen Valley Expansion, targeting ~780ktpa of spodumene concentrate from FY30, with steady-state production in line with our expectations but unit costs above MorgansF and consensus. Our target price falls to A$1.10ps (from A$1.40ps) on a slower FY28-FY29 ramp-up and higher near-term capex and costs, with falling lithium prices and execution now the key risks. We maintain our ACCUMULATE rating with a A$1.10ps target price.

IMR’s share price has fallen over 20% since it entered the ASX300 index in early September. Over that period there have been two important announcements, and we expect material newsflow over the next three to six months, which in our view should see the share price back above A$2.00. >Catalysts to come – NorthStar orders, clinical data submit, Europe/ME sales, FDA approval, and VT trial update. >We have made no changes to forecasts or TP. SPECULATIVE BUY.

Several important catalysts are approaching which could be positive for the share price. Of most interest to investors is the full recruitment of the pivotal study for Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) which is expected to be achieved by end of CY26. Management expects to submit to the FDA in 1QCY27, with approval in 2QCY27. BB1’s technology has broad applications across additional indications (adult autism, dementia detection, ketamine-based pharma intervention) and preliminary data is expected to read out over the next 12 months adding to the cadence of news flow. Positively, BB1 has appointed the former Clinical Lead for Mental Health at Apple to the board as a Non-Executive Director. We have made no changes to forecasts, and our target price remains unchanged at A$1.76. SPECULATIVE BUY.

Vitrafy Life Sciences (VFY) has spent FY26 turning a single commercially unproven cryopreservation platform into three separate, partially validated commercial pathways. The next 12 months turn on whether those pathways are converted into material contracts. >Commercial success is far from a foregone conclusion, but strong scientific data, a forced re-equipment cycle, and a funded runway make VFY a viable contender, in our view, to become the replacement standard in US frozen blood infrastructure, with Cell and Gene Therapy (CGT) and animal reproduction providing optionality on top of that core case. >We initiate formal coverage of VFY with a Speculative Buy recommendation and DCF-based target price of A$5.06.

NGI has agreed to sell its stake (21%) in Invictus Capital Partners to New York Life Investment Management (NYLIM). The sale will take place in several stages. The sale crystallises a premium of up to ~8% to cost on the initial 12.7% stake, while NGI keeps its carry and future upside through a residual 8.3% stake. Management expects the retained stake could be worth meaningfully more, on a pro-rata basis, when it is transferred in 2031, helped by the NYLIM partnership. In our view, the sale shows the optionality and embedded value in NGI's portfolio. We have left our earnings forecasts unchanged for now and will wait for more detail from NGI at its February result. That timing matches the expected transaction completion in the first quarter of 2027. We see long-term value in the NGI story and maintain our BUY recommendation and target price of A$3.04.

FY26 saw CC5 execute the “Land” phase of its strategy. CC5 delivered 11 APAS® Independence placements, eight of them to leading pharmaceutical manufacturers and taking the total installed base to 37 instruments. FY26 revenue was A$4.7m, including A$2.9m in instrument sales. Novo Nordisk ordered two additional instruments. CC5 enters FY27 with A$1.3m of ARR, and its strongest pipeline to date at 180 qualified opportunities, 100 of which are with existing customers.

HLS has agreed to sell Agilex Biolabs to Novotech for A$160m (cA$155m net), with completion slated for 2HFY27 subject to FIRB/ACCC approvals. >The transaction values Agilex Biolabs at 19.8x FY26 EBITDA (pre-AASB16), broadly in line with the c21x HLS paid for the division in Dec-21 at the height of the pandemic-era boom. >Importantly, we view the disposal as removing a non-core business and providing liquidity (net cash on close) to support the Pathology turnaround without the need for a dilutive equity funding. >As such, we view the transaction as pragmatic but not transformational, with the ultimate investment case still resting on whether HLS can deliver sustainable earnings leverage in Pathology, which remains a moving feast. We lower our price target to A$0.40 and maintain HOLD.

We initiate coverage of Joyce Corporation (JYC) with a BUY recommendation and $7.52 price target (29% potential TSR at current prices). JYC operates in the furniture and renovation market through its 51% ownership of KWB Group and 100% ownership of Bedshed. We forecast EPS CAGR of 11% over FY27-29E, accompanied by a 5.3% dividend yield. KWB is the primary earnings driver and offers a compelling growth profile. It is the market leader in the highly fragmented, cottage-like kitchen renovation segment, operating 32 corporate showrooms (with a long-term target of 55+), with no presence yet in VIC or WA. Sector-leading margins (gross margin >50%, EBIT margin >22%) have further upside as sales per store improve and the network scales, underpinning an attractive multi-year earnings growth outlook for the group.