Research notes

FDC started listed life with a modest ~2% NPAT norm beat vs prospectus forecasts and FY27 prospectus forecasts reaffirmed. With 89% of FY27 revenue secured as at 30 June, this in our view significantly de-risks FY27 and increases our confidence in upside risk to forecasts. We retain our ACCUMULATE rating and increase our price target to $4.27 (from $3.97).

OCL’s FY26 result was largely in line with expectations. The result came however with more sticker shock in the form of another legacy contract loss leading to a further $3.2m ARR reduction. OCL enters FY27 with ARR of $114.1m. Despite this softening & FX headwinds during the year, OCL continued to see strong underlying SaaS growth momentum and progress of a number of strategic milestones (including the launch of Build Australia), which is key to ARR momentum and FY27+ outlook. Rebasing our forecasts for OCL’s revised FY27 ARR and guidance sees our NPAT estimates reduce by ~18-21% in FY27-28F. Following these revisions OCL is trading on FY27F P/E of 24x, with a share price near 5 years lows. We therefore reiterate our BUY rating with a revised PT of $8.50/sh.

GDG’s FY26 group underlying NPAT (A$40.7m) was +21% on the pcp, but appeared 2.5% below Visible Alpha consensus (A$41.7m).  The FY26 result was arguably overshadowed by disclosure of higher future investment spend (opex and capex) to capture opportunities in Generation Life and Evidentia. This spend came in above our expectations, as did the pace at which GDG's tax rate has normalised. We downgrade our FY27F/FY28F EPS by 5%/8% on higher cost guidance than expected. Our PT is lowered to A$5.98 (previously A$6.89). We still think GDG remains well placed to benefit from structural growth tailwinds, and with >20% upside to our PT we maintain our BUY call.

Tasmea's FY26 result was strong with EBITA +54% YoY and EPS +27%. Organic EBITA growth accelerated to +18% for the year, implying a 2H run-rate of +25%, while work secured, recurring or tendered has lifted to $1.3bn (from $1.2bn in late June). A fast start to FY27 and increased visibility has driven an EBITA guidance upgrade to $205-210m, which looks conservative against an implied 2H run-rate of ~$210m (including Maxim and JPS). We increase our FY27/28 EBITA and NPATA forecasts by +4-5% and retain ACCUMULATE with a $10.65 target price.

With traffic and toll revenues pre-released, the 1H26 operating and financial performance was broadly in-line with expectations. Forecast changes limited. 12 month target price $4.74/sh, predicated on IFM returning with another takeover bid. HOLD retained at current prices. Potential TSR c.9%, including 7.6% cash yield.

Eureka's FY26 result was a small beat vs our expectations, with underlying EBITDA and underlying pre-tax EPS (U-EPS) both finishing above the top of guidance, with U-EPS having grown 10% (vs pcp). FY27 guidance for U-EPS growth of at least +13% came in above our prior forecasts, reflecting both the cadence of acquisitions and the rollout of additional dwellings. The EGH investment case rests on a structural shortage of affordable rental accommodation, resilient government-backed cashflows, and two scaling growth engines - seniors' rentals and all-age rentals - funded by an accretive acquisition and prefabricated dwelling development pipeline (>800 dwellings). We retain our BUY rating and A$0.85 target price, offering around 33% upside plus a c.2.4% dividend yield.

KAR posted a largely in line 1H26 earnings result, with guidance maintaining the H2 skew that will deliver positive FCF. Advancing Who Dat East, while looking for partners on Brazil exploration, with capital efficiency an increasing priority under current management. After an investment heavy H1, KAR understandably announced an interim dividend at the low end of its 20-40% payout ratio, at AUD 1.2 cents. We maintain a HOLD rating with an updated A$1.73 target price, viewing KAR as trading close to fair value on a TSR basis.

APE delivered a positive 1H26 update: sales +24% yoy (+8% LFL) and Underlying PBT growth of +27% yoy. The result was a ~4% beat on consensus sales and PBT. The result was characterised by ongoing industry relative outperformance across its Canadian and ANZ operations, laying foundations for future growth (NEV leadership; EA123; M&A) and continuing to optimise the portfolio (NZ divestment). The group enters 2H26 with a 25k+ order bank and +4% LFL order write (Aug) that is strengthening across key brands and providing meaningful 2H tailwinds (Toyota). We attribute the negative share price reaction to a more hawkish rate backdrop, overshadowing a good result in tough conditions with a positive operational outlook. BUY maintained with a $26.30 target price.

FY26 underlying NPAT increased 23% and was ahead of expectations, with EBIT growth and positive OCF (ex - Santé). Australia remained the earnings driver, while UK Acute was the standout and Elysium showed a material 2H turnaround. Pleasingly, Australia delivered EBIT growth of 11.2% and 30bp margin expansion despite a 4% headwind from new funding at Joondalup public, supported by activity, acuity, theatre utilisation, PHI indexation and cost control. While we view result quality as encouraging (OCF & ROCE up), FY27 guidance is qualitative, with management only targeting EBIT growth and margin expansion (ex - Santé), leaving the sustainability question open for debate. We adjust FY27-28 earnings, with our price target increasing to A$49.39. Hold.

SIG has posted its FY26 result which was in line with our and consensus forecasts. Highlights included EBIT growth of >20%, Australia CW LFL sales were 13.4% (1H 15.0%; 2H: 11.8%), International CW LFL sales of 12.2%. We note the slight moderation in 2H in Australia was driven by a later start to the cold and flu season and cycling a very strong pcp. SIG is targeting double-digit revenue and earnings growth for FY27. We have reduced our forecast by ~3.5%, which sees our TP reduce to A$3.19 (was A$3.30). The market has marked the shares down 7% post the FY26 results and possible sell down by some of the founders (up to 4.7% of issued capital). We believe the share price fall is overdone and provides us with an opportunity to move our recommendation to BUY (from ACCUMULATE).