Research notes

NHC has announced an agreement to acquire the remaining ~74% of privately held Malabar Resources via a scrip scheme of arrangement, bringing the Maxwell Mine fully into the NHC portfolio. NHC is effectively consolidating a tier-one Hunter Valley asset with significant infrastructure already in place, substantial resource optionality, and multiple synergies with its nearby Bengalla mine. We upgrade our recommendation to ACCUMULATE (previously HOLD) with an increased target price of A$6.30ps (previously A$6.05ps).

At its AGM JDO reiterated FY27 guidance implying 25-31% PBT growth (we target +26%). While still early in FY27, JDO indicated 1Q27 trends were as expected. >The balance between asset quality and NIM (risk and return) remains the key watch point. JDO says NIM is tracking to its guidance, arrears increased but remained below its through-the-cycle assumption, and CET1 deteriorated but was at the top end of the target range. >Forecast EPS changes are minor. Target price $1.44/s (+4 cps). BUY maintained. >Valuation metrics are compelling at current prices given the strong growth outlook (c.0.6x P:BV, c.5x FY27F EPS, long-term equity IRR of c.19% pa). We back-solve that the share price implies a c.23% probability of zero equity value.

Decidr AI Industries (DAI) is an emerging AI technology business that builds digital infrastructure to enable organisations to run workflows leveraging agentic AI. DAI had positive early progress through the Beta stages of its rollout and is now progressing towards commercialisation of its DecidrOS platform as it seeks to scale the solution with an increased focus turning to the US SME market.

Ahead of WEB’s 1H27 result on 25 November, we have upgraded our FY27-29 EBITDA forecasts by ~8%. Despite the Middle East conflict and a ~9% FX headwind, WEB’s 1H27 guidance beat our expectations, with trading in 2Q27 improving on 1Q27. We forecast earnings growth to accelerate in FY28. Past economic and geopolitical shocks show travel demand rebounds quickly once a downturn passes, and we expect WEB’s earnings to follow. WEB trades on undemanding multiples. We maintain our BUY rating with a new price target of A$4.50 (was A$3.75).

IMB’s AGM update showed solid momentum, with 1Q adjusted EBITDA of $11.8m (+45% YoY), including +16% organic growth, though we note softness in the pcp due to a weak NZ performance. FY27 guidance of $91-96m EBITDA (base business $51-54m plus ~6 months of ADT UK at $40-42m) was in line with our previous forecast at the top end ($96m), though we reduce our forecast slightly to $93m. We trim FY27-29 EBITDA forecasts by 2-3%. Given our forecast changes are minor, our $1.10 target price is unchanged, and we retain our Speculative Buy recommendation.

PWH provided a positive trading update at its AGM with FY27 guidance upgraded. >The upgraded guidance was driven by an increase in Aerospace & Defence (A&D) revenue growth expectations from ~30% to ~50%, largely reflecting a recently secured US$4.6m order. Guidance for the remaining segments (Motorsports, OEM and Aftermarket) was broadly unchanged, with management continuing to target a ~200bp improvement in FY27 NPAT margin to ~12.5%. >We increase FY27F revenue by 4% and NPAT by 3% following the upgrade to A&D guidance. However, we make minimal changes to FY28 and FY29 forecasts as we await further contract wins to provide greater confidence in the medium-term pipeline. >Our target price increases to A$12.55 (from A$12.40) following updates to earnings forecasts. With a 12-month forecast TSR of 14%, we upgrade our rating on PWH to ACCUMULATE (from HOLD).

3Q26 has been flagged as the weakest quarter of FY26 since guidance was released due to heavy planned maintenance. Against consensus, we expect a weaker Mantos Blancos will be offset by a stronger Mantoverde even despite a 15-day tie-in period. >CSC has fallen 14% over the past month, against SFR’s 7% fall and a 3-10% decline across the global majors. We think the underperformance reflects investors de-risking ahead of a busy catalyst calendar, and we see the pullback as a buying opportunity ahead of a strong end to CY26. >We mark to market 3Q26 copper and lift cost assumptions, leaving EBITDA little changed, and our TP falls to A$17.00 (from A$18.00). BUY maintained.

MAP’s 1Q27 quarterly showed Australian testing is still compounding; however, group revenue, cash burn and UK execution all came in weaker than we expected. MAP also announced a A$2m placement at A$0.04, with only half the proceeds firm. >The focus has shifted from breakeven timing to balance sheet and corporate risk. MAP is simultaneously managing an interim CEO, a second round of cuts, the Invivo sale process and a proposed merger with Genetic Signatures (GSS), approval of which could be influenced by GSS substantial holder BCAL Diagnostics (BDX). >For now, we prefer to stay on the sidelines until the results of the GSS vote (28 October) and 2Q burn are known. We move to a HOLD rating with an A$0.08 target price (previously A$0.12).

Amplitude delivered another solid operating result, headlined by Sole, with the Orbost gas plant setting new records and beating estimates. >FY27 capex guidance was increased to include Nestor, the fourth optional well at the ECSP project. >We maintain a BUY rating with a A$2.70 target price (was A$2.90).

MSV's 1Q27 result reinforces our view that earnings leverage is beginning to emerge. Operating rigs increased to 66 during the quarter and MSV expects a further 10 rigs to commence by 3Q27. With underlying margins remaining strong at 22.9% and utilisation at 85%, we believe this increased operating activity should increasingly translate into earnings growth as drilling markets recover. >Pathway to 80 – MSV has also stated it sees a pathway to having 80 operating rigs by FY27-end. Against an FY26 average operating fleet of ~62 rigs, this represents a significant increase in activity levels and supports our view that earnings leverage will become increasingly evident through FY27. >We upgrade our recommendation to SPECULATIVE BUY (previously ACCUMULATE) with an increased price target of A$0.80ps (previously A$0.60ps).