Research notes

KSL’s 1H26 NPAT (PGK ~60m) was up 4% on the pcp and in-line with MorgansE. The 1H26 dividend of 14.2 toea (AUD 4.5cps) was above MorgansE (13.1 toea). Overall, we would describe this as a reasonable result, broadly in line with expectations. The key result negative was slower revenue growth, while the key positive was a strong bad debt performance. We make nominal changes to our KSL FY26F EPS, but lower future year EPS by 8%-10% on softer revenue growth expectations. Our PT is reduced to A$1.38 (previously $1.48). With >20% TSR upside, we maintain our BUY call.

RDY’s FY26 result came in towards the lower end of its revised FY26 guidance range, with revenue of $125m & EBITDA of $34.8m -1%/-4% lower than MorgF respectively, with contract implementation timing and customer churn across RDY’s legacy portfolio key headwinds during the period. Lower planned investment into FY27 and an improved cost base stemming from the group’s FY26 efficiency program should see the pathway back towards improved growth and margins as achievable, underpinning FY27 guidance of revenue of ~$128-132m (+2.4-5.6% YoY) & cash EBITDA margins of 15-17%. We trim EBITDA forecasts by -3-4% in FY27-FY29F, with our SPEC BUY retained.

FY26 underlying EBITDA missed consensus estimates but was in line with MorgansF, while underlying NPAT beat expectations as the company swung to a net profit from a loss in FY25. FY27 outlook was unchanged with guidance already provided at the 4Q26 result and today’s release contained no material updates on the Kathleen Valley expansion timeline or ramp-up. FID for the expansion is expected by the end of 1Q27. Maintain ACCUMULATE with a A$1.40ps target price.

MVF delivered FY26 underlying NPAT of $16.1m, which was below the revised guidance range of $17-18m, although included a $1.4m write-off of prepaid assets. Excluding this, it would have been in line ($17.5m). FY26 was a challenging year, with NPAT down 41.2% yoy driven by soft industry cycles, market share losses in the 1H, and no price increases to offset inflationary cost pressures. As a result, EBITDA margins fell materially (down 460bps). MVF did not provide any quantitative FY27 guidance but expects earnings growth to be driven by industry volume improvements, market share gains (focus on NSW, VIC) and cost efficiencies delivering EBITDA margin improvement. We have made modest downward revisions to FY27F earnings. We have moved to an ACCUMULATE rating (from Speculative Buy), with an $0.82 price target (was $0.80).

1H FY26 delivered the earnings improvement flagged in July, with IME returning to statutory profitability and Underlying EBITDA rising materially off a small base. However, the quality of that improvement is less convincing. Cash conversion was weak, receivables increased and Software ARR was broadly flat over the half. Risk tolerance is low, and investors are less willing to overlook funding, liquidity and execution barriers, leaving IME with a higher burden of proof from here. Recent trading is a material improvement versus historical but longer-term growth still missing key ingredients. Higher risks, less conviction. Move to a HOLD, target price reduces to A$0.37 (from A$0.50).

PXA’s FY26 results came in ahead of Visible Alpha consensus at both EBITDA (+3%) and Core NPAT (+11%). However, FY27 guidance was significantly below expectations, reflecting a more difficult outlook for the domestic mortgage market, with transaction volumes now expected to decline materially this year. We make sizeable downgrades to our EPS forecasts over the next two years (>20%) on the softer guidance commentary, and our price target falls to A$7.12 (from A$9.35). While there is likely inherent value in PXA at current levels, we think there are too many headwinds and unknowns near term to turn positive.

MFG’s group operating profit after tax (A$145m) was down 9% on the pcp (A$159m) and 2% above consensus (A$142m). Guidance was the main factor weighing on the result, with management flagging numerous headwinds for FY27 - which shapes up as a consolidation year - alongside signs of a slowdown in Barrenjoey growth in 2H26 (despite otherwise impressive overall numbers). We downgrade our MFG FY27F/FY28F EPS by ~10-20%, reflecting disclosed guidance impacts to earnings and greater conservatism in our Barrenjoey growth forecasts. Our price target falls from A$11.26 to A$10.25. While MFG faces some near-term pressures, we continue to believe the company is well positioned to drive medium-term growth. With >10% upside to our price target, we maintain our ACCUMULATE call.

NXT’s FY26 and FY27 outlook were both above expectations. Customer demand remains insatiable and NXT is on a glide path to materially higher EBITDA. We lift our EBITDA forecasts materially on a faster ramp-up of contracted MW. We see the value creation from substantial FY26 deals but cannot avoid the investment markets reasonable fixation on the funding envelop. We think, until NXT delivers more steps along the path to a capital recycling program, the stock could lack marginal buyers. We move to a Hold recommendation, for now.

FY26 revenue of $204m grew +17% YoY and EBITDA similarly rose +15%. However, higher depreciation saw operating EBIT only +3%. Importantly, the New Zealand business which plagued 1H recovered in 2H with EBITDA +42% HoH. Adjusted NPATA was strong at $24m, though this was helped by a one-off tax refund. Going forward, the ANZ business now has a strong platform to grow, with the secured commercial pipeline doubling to $72.4m since 1Q. FY27 guidance will be provided at the AGM. From here, however, given the sheer scale, the investment case will largely hinge upon the acquisition and execution of ADT UK’s Residential business (~A$80m EBITDA). We pare back our EBITA forecast by 7-10% across FY27 and FY28 on higher depreciation, which sees our target price come down to $1.10 (from $1.20). SPECULATIVE BUY retained.

The FY26 result landed where the July trading update flagged, with revenue of A$114.5m and adjusted EBITDA of A$10.9m (9.6% margin), a touch under our A$11.1m EBITDA forecast. The management restructure is now formalised (Karen Borg sole CEO, Greg Knight COO, Nathan Minnich CMO), removing the leadership overhang flagged in July and giving the FY27 growth reinflection case a settled team to execute against. We make no changes to our view or rating (Speculative Buy) but valuation rises to A$0.76 (from A$0.75) on model roll-forward. With A$16.8m net cash against a A$73m market cap, SOM is now trading on <8x EV/EBITDA, it’s too cheap.