Research notes
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Research Notes
From FY26 to the future
MyState
September 4, 2026
MYS delivered a solid 2H26 result, with underlying EPS +7% vs 1H26, ROTE approaching double-digits, and a 0.5 cps bump to the DPS. Strategy remains on track, with underlying growth, Auswide merger cost synergies on schedule, accelerated growth in the higher-returning Selfco and TPT Wealth businesses, and potential for further M&A.
Target-rich, strategically backed and well-funded
G50 Corp
September 3, 2026
G50 continues to unlock value across its asset base, with recent activity extending the Golconda system, delivering a high-grade gold discovery at White Caps, and advancing potential gallium development pathways amid an increasingly supportive backdrop for critical minerals. Following the recent Hancock-cornerstoned placement, the Company is well funded to accelerate exploration and advance potential gallium monetisation pathways, supporting early cash flow, financing and permitting for the broader Golconda deposit. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a target price of A$1.94ps.
Guidance upgrade dependent on leasing
Centuria Industrial REIT
September 3, 2026
CIP delivered FY26 FFO of 18.2cpu and distributions of 16.8cpu, both in line with guidance but at the bottom of the upgraded 18.2-18.5cpu range, and 1% below MorgansF of 18.4cpu. CIP produced +5.2% like-for-like NOI growth, a near record 226,200sqm of leasing completed, spreads moderating to 30%, and +$116m like-for-like valuation gains, resulting in NTA up 2.3% to $4.01/unit. FY27 FFO guidance of 18.8-19.2cpu was above market expectations, while the 17.3cpu of distribution guidance in FY27 reflects a more modest 3% growth (vs pcp), driven by rent reversion leasing in the second half. We rate CIP ACCUMULATE, with a $3.25/sh PT, as the 6% distribution should continue to grow as rental income grows through a mix of positive rent reversion and lease indexation.
FY26 result: Interest costs to remain a headwind
Dexus Industria REIT
September 3, 2026
DXI reported a solid result (12-Aug) although FY27 guidance came in below market expectations, with FFO forecast to decline 3.4% (vs pcp) to 17.0 cps, as DXI cycles off the sale of its high-yielding suburban office assets, whilst also navigating higher interest charges. Distributions in FY27 remain unchanged at 16.6cps. DXI currently trades at a 29% discount to NTA, with a 6.9% distribution yield (FY27). We rate DXI a HOLD, with a $2.35/sh price target.
All on track for CY26 guidance
Waypoint REIT
September 3, 2026
WPR’s 1H26 result was marginally ahead of our expectations, with management reaffirming CY26 Distributable EPS (DEPS) guidance of 17.14cps. With limited expiries in CY27/28 (13% of NLA), WPR remains sensitive to the wider rate environment, and physical asset transactions point to some incremental softening in cap rates, albeit highly contingent on asset quality and location. Trading at a c.7% distribution yield and 20% discount to NTA we do see value. However, higher rates are likely to remain a headwind to earnings growth over CY27/28. To this end, our target price remains broadly unchanged at $2.55, as we reiterate our ACCUMULATE recommendation on valuation grounds.
The next generation
Tabcorp Holdings
September 2, 2026
We take this opportunity to update our forecasts to reflect the acquisition of BetMakers Technology Group (BET), and the FY26 results of both companies. We gained encouragement from TAH's FY26 result, with the company responding to a modest growth environment (+1%) with disciplined cost control, while softer D&A helped underlying NPAT come in +6% ahead of market expectations and broadly in line with our estimates. Other highlights for us included strong customer retention following the introduction of the new retail commercial model, the rollout of next-generation terminals, and a strong sports performance through the FIFA World Cup. Following the release of full year results and accounting for BET, our EPS forecasts are revised -2%/+3%/+12% across FY27/28/29F. Given the resilient share price performance and the AUSTRAC investigation discount, we revise our rating to Accumulate from Buy, with an unchanged target price of $1.02.
FY26 result: Cleaning up in the 4Q
Infragreen Group
September 2, 2026
IFN reported an improved 2H result, with EBITDA +29% yoy (+27% hoh) and delivered within its revised A$22.5m to A$25m guidance (-4% below FY26PF). The group exited 2H strongly, with a record 4Q (A$7.6m), positioning it well to meet FY27 EBITDA guidance of A$26-28m (MorgansF A$26.7m, +11.6% yoy). We are encouraged by the strong FCF outcome (+38% yoy), conservative balance sheet position (~0.6x gearing) and improved 2H trends, which provide greater confidence into FY27. BUY maintained.
FY26 solid - the productivity test begins
Saluda Medical
September 2, 2026
FY26 finished strong and mostly ahead of prospectus, but the more important development is showing greater visibility on the path to operating leverage. FY27 guidance calls for 25-35% revenue growth, 50-52% gross margin and a US$95-101m adjusted EBITDA loss, with management expecting c90% of incremental gross profit to translate into adjusted EBITDA improvement. Salesforce maturation is key, with 161 US reps at FY26 year-end, 55% fully trained and the majority of the remaining cohort expected to come online in 1HFY27. Growth looks set to come from higher productivity rather than simply adding headcount, with c30% of territories operating below a 40% fully loaded rep-cost/revenue threshold, providing evidence that the territory economics can work. We see FY27 as the first meaningful test of the model’s scalability, with higher physician utilisation, maturing territories and the CAP24 paddle lead providing potential upside to guidance. We adjust FY27-28 forecasts, with our DCF-based target price moving to A$2.17 (from A$2.94). SPECULATIVE BUY maintained.
Halal-yeah!
Collins Foods
September 1, 2026
CKF's AGM trading update was positive. Group sales rose 6.6% over the first 17 weeks of FY27, with Australia resilient and European SSS (same-store-sales) inflecting from the weak start over the last 4 weeks, which we view positively in a tough consumer environment. Trading strengthened through the last 4 weeks, with KFC SSS of +3.1% in AU, +3.1% in the Netherlands, driven by the new Halal-certified range, and -0.1% in Germany, a material improvement on the -7.8% (Netherlands) and -7.2% (Germany) start over the first 8 weeks. We retain our BUY rating and A$10.60 target price; Australia is resilient and Europe is re-accelerating.
Upgrade on share price weakness
Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure
September 1, 2026
We upgrade from HOLD to ACCUMULATE, given potential TSR at current prices of c.12% (including cash yield of 5.7%). 12 month target price +4 cps to $5.47/share due to refinements to tax modelling. Otherwise, no change in our fundamental outlook for the business over coming years.
News & insights
September 4, 2026
August 19, 2026
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Warsh Gets Tough on Inflation at Jackson Hole
Michael Knox (AR: 000259340)
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
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Macro Monthly Market: A Worldly Lens - July 2026
Scott Fraser (AR: 001254347)
Financial Adviser
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Data centres, not jobs are driving US growth
Michael Knox (AR: 000259340)
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
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