Research notes

MPK delivered a maiden MRE of 26.7Mt at 1.54g/t Au for 1.32Moz at the Ferké Gold Project, a material beat vs our estimate of 1Moz at 1.1g/t Au. Importantly, 1.1Moz of the MRE sits within the Measured and Indicated category, forming the basis of our production scenario. We expect 80-90% of this to convert to reserve given the ideal geometry of the resource and its amenability to mining. We see further upside as assumptions are refined (geotechnical inputs, process recoveries and additional drilling) as the project progresses toward PFS. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation and lift our price target to A$2.48ps (previously A$1.92ps).

SKS’s recent contract expansion with its major customer has bolstered the group’s outlook, adding a further $80m of work, and broadening its pipeline of FY27 work in hand to $240m. DC sector demand remains robust, with various operators continuing to expand their capex/build activity over the coming years, and we continue to see a significant pipeline of DC build opportunity into FY27-28+. We upgrade our forecasts by ~13+14% in FY27-28F, reflecting our expectations for SKS to continue building on strong forward levels of work in hand / BAU run-rate into FY27+. We retain our ACCUMULATE rating with a revised PT of $6.70.

We revise our CKF forecasts ahead of the FY26 result in June, trimming underlying NPAT to reflect deferred store openings, reset German acquired store economics, and a lower EU SSS assumption to better capture the Netherlands-skewed mix for FY26, partially offset by a marginal AU SSS upgrade on sustained KFC Australia momentum. We maintain our BUY recommendation and reduce our price target to $12.50 (from $12.70).

In this note, we deploy a new PME model where we have deliberately set a lower bar. Our remodelled estimates prioritise achievability over optimism, staging implementation revenue conservatively and mark FX to spot. We see this as the right framework for a stock where sentiment has been fragile. On the business operations front, the story remains untarnished. Contract newsflow since February has been exceptional: ~$100m in wins and renewals, all at higher pricing, with cardiology upsell gaining traction. The demand story is not in question. We re-emphasise our positive long-term conviction on the name although lower our valuation to reflect current but potentially fleeting headwinds. Our target price is reduced to A$210 p/s and we retain our Buy recommendation.

NWL's 3Q26 net-flows of $3.96bn came in modestly ahead of expectations, however market volatility during the period eroded this solid performance to see 3Q26 FUA ending the quarter flat QoQ at A$125.8bn, (vs. Consensus A$129.8bn). Despite ongoing volatility and uncertainty tied to a US/Middle East conflict and a potential resolution, market momentum has recovered from peak pessimism in the March Quarter, with the ASX All Ordinaries +5.6% month-to-date in April’26, which will have seen FUA growth momentum improve post quarter end. Looking through this near-term volatility NWL remains on track deliver solid growth FY26F and well placed to capitalised on the long runway of opportunity ahead. We retain our ACCUMULATE rating, with a Price target of $29.00/sh.

Material CY26 downgrade. Xantho Extended deferral drives a sharp cut to CY26 zinc, gold and silver production guidance to ensure long-term mine reliability. Cash burn and liquidity now remains a key risk through CY26, with our investment case now contingent on remediation delivery, production flexibility and disciplined liquidity management. Downgrade to HOLD (previously BUY). While long-term upside remains should 29M effectively manage its balance sheet and operations through CY26, elevated uncertainty around near-term cash flow sees risk-reward more finely balanced, with a more cautious stance warranted.

EchoIQ’s (EIQ) EchoSolv platform is the world’s first FDA-cleared AI cardiac decision-support tool, institutionally validated at Beth Israel Deaconess (BIDMC/Harvard) and the Mayo Clinic, and trained on the world’s largest echocardiogram dataset (NEDA), creating a genuine clinical and data moat. A recently secured commercial sales agreement with the Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research (Mayo) (effective post-FDA clearance) positions EchoSolv HF for rapid deployment across Mayo Clinic hospitals and health system (19 sites) and 80+ hospitals in the network. We view this as a significant marker for clinical, regulatory, and commercial validation ahead of approval. We expect a positive outcome from the EchoSolv HF FDA 510(k), due imminently, which unlocks the large, structurally undiagnosed US cardiac market. Combined with attractive unit economics and clear patient and hospital benefits, we see a high probability of rapid US adoption and monetisation. We initiate coverage with a Speculative Buy rating and A$1.30 price target with potential upside to A$1.68 on approval/reimbursement, underpinned by near-term FDA clearance, reimbursement progression, and a credible pathway to US commercial scaling.

Gold production met expectations despite weather and maintenance impacts, with weaker copper and higher AISC driven by Ernest Henry disruptions. Strong 4Q26 expected to achieve FY26 guidance. Achieves net cash position with an updated capital management policy expected at its FY26 result in August. We upgrade to an ACCUMULATE (from HOLD) following recent weakness across the gold sector which we believe has uncovered value in a high-quality name, despite a strong share price reaction post the result.

Pleasingly, NUF’s 1H26 EBITDA guidance was slightly higher than expected and it has had a strong 1H. Importantly, its leverage guidance is materially better than expected. Initial outlook comments for the 2H26 were positive and a new A$50m cost out program has been announced. Given the appreciation in active ingredient and fish oil prices, NUF’s previous FY26 guidance could prove to be conservative. NUF is our key pick of the ag and chemical sector. The company is materially undervalued and we reiterate our BUY rating with a new price target of A$4.05.

Nike, Inc. is a global leader in athletic footwear, apparel and equipment with an estimated market share in 2023 of 39% (investing.com). Nike’s iconic ‘Swoosh’ logo is one of the most recognisable consumer brands in the world. Nike sells directly through over 1,000 retail stores and ecommerce platforms, as well as through wholesale channels. It employs a contract manufacturing model.