Research notes

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Research Notes

3Q26: Margins back on track

BETR Entertainment
3:27pm
April 30, 2026
BETR Entertainment (BBT) reported its 3Q26 business update, marking a solid sequential improvement. Encouragingly, margins have normalised following the customer-friendly Spring Carnival period in Q2, and the business looks well placed to achieve its H2 targets. The one real negative was the cash position at period end, though this was impacted by a number of one-off items that won't recur in Q4. With the internal focus firmly on value-generating customers, a leaner cost base now in place, and the streamlining of operations largely complete, we remain optimistic about the path ahead. We make relatively minor changes to our earnings forecasts. We reduce our valuation to $0.35 (previously $0.41), reflecting a higher risk-free rate and cost of capital assumptions. In our view, BBT is trading well below fair value and looks compelling at current levels. Maintain BUY recommendation.

3Q26 result: delivery across all operations

Mineral Resources
3:27pm
April 30, 2026
Strong 3Q26 beat against expectations led by Onslow and lithium. FY26 guidance upgraded marginally across Mining Services, Onslow, Wodgina and Mt Marion. Diesel headwinds are emerging but remain contained. No supply risk currently but cost inflation is apparent. Compelling outlook supported by continued deleveraging and commodity prices. Maintain ACCUMULATE with a A$71ps target price (previously A$67ps).

3Q26 activity report

Wrkr
3:27pm
April 30, 2026
WRK has put out its Q3 FY26 activity report. While cash outflows have increased to support growth, the business appears to be tracking well operationally, highlighted by the successful live launches of REST Pay and AustralianSuper. Off low bases, we lift our WRK FY26F EPS by +7% but lower our FY27F EPS by 6% on a broad review of our earnings assumptions. Our target price is unchanged at A$0.14. We continue to think WRK is well positioned for a significant earnings inflection point in FY27, and we maintain our BUY recommendation.

Playing the long game

Woolworths
3:27pm
April 30, 2026
WOW’s 3Q26 sales trading update was mixed. Strong sales growth was offset by softer FY26 earnings guidance for Australian Food and NZ Food, as management chose to absorb higher fuel costs and invest in pricing. Management noted that value is becoming increasingly important, as customers become more cautious amid rising cost-of-living pressures. We reduce group FY26-28F underlying EBIT marginally by 1%. Our target price remains unchanged at $37.30. With a 12-month forecast TSR of 12%, we upgrade our rating to ACCUMULATE (from HOLD). While absorbing higher costs and investing in pricing will weigh on margins in the near term, we believe this is the right strategy in the long-term as WOW works to improve its value perception with customers. These are levers within management’s control, and improving sales and volume momentum indicates the strategy is resonating. In an uncertain macro environment with soft consumer sentiment, WOW’s dominant market position and relatively defensive characteristics should support steady and resilient earnings growth.

3Q26 update: Future bookings hit

Camplify Holdings
3:27pm
April 30, 2026
CHL’s quarterly update was a mixed bag overall. We note the transition to a membership-led strategy is still underway (i.e. pulling back on low-margin volume) within the business (improving take-rates), along with a newly implemented ~A$2m annualised cost-out plan. For 3Q26, GTV fell ~3% on pcp to ~A$33m, and revenue was down ~8% to ~A$11m. Key negative in the update however was the fall in future bookings to ~A$17m, which management has attributed to fuel concerns from the US/Iran conflict.

Solid result, operations improving into 2Q26

Capstone Copper
3:27pm
April 30, 2026
Adjusted EBITDA of US$329m a record and +16% ahead of consensus on strong realised copper prices and an in-line operating performance. March and early 2Q26 performance points to improving volumes and a stronger 2H26 profile. Sulphuric acid supply remains secure, however pricing is emerging as a cost headwind into 2H26 and 2027, partially offset by strong copper and by-product prices. Maintain BUY with a A$15.70ps target price.

3Q26 - Cash build despite revised cost guidance

Catalyst Metals
3:27pm
April 30, 2026
Gold production of 26.1koz at an AISC of A$2,901/oz fell below expectations, although CYL generated solid operating cash flow of A$103m at an average realised price of A$7,014/oz. CYL continues to strengthen their balance sheet, adding A$39m during the quarter to close with A$277m in cash and bullion while reinvesting heavily across growth and exploration initiatives. Growth momentum continues across the Plutonic Belt, with multiple new ore sources advancing (Trident, K2, Old Highway) alongside a high-grade discovery at Cinnamon, supports the pathway to c.200kozpa production. We maintain our BUY rating, with valuation supported by strong cash generation and a clear production growth pipeline, albeit with near-term cost pressures emerging.

3Q26 - Mounting pressure to deliver

Pantoro Gold
3:27pm
April 30, 2026
PNR reported gold sales for 3Q26 of 20.0koz at an AISC of A$3,204/oz, generating revenue of A$138.9m from an average realised price of A$6,916/oz. Production of 17.8koz fell below expectations despite the company’s revised guidance released in March, paired with a substantially higher cost of production. Whilst we forecast a narrow miss to FY26 guidance, we still anticipate a material uplift in 4Q26 ounce production as Gladstone open-pit delivers higher ore volume to the mill alongside Mega Resources ore treatment partnership. We maintain our BUY rating, with a price target of A$6.29ps (previously A$6.53ps) - the revision a function of adjustments to long-term head-grade and 4Q26.

Cessation of coverage

Coronado Global Resources
3:27pm
April 30, 2026
Following a review of our research universe, we discontinue coverage of Coronado Global Resources (CRN AU). Our forecasts, target price and recommendation should no longer be relied upon for investment decisions.

International Spotlight

Boeing Co.
3:27pm
April 29, 2026
Boeing is a leading global aerospace and defence manufacturer, founded in 1916 and headquartered in Arlington, United States. The company designs and produces commercial airplanes, military aircraft, satellites, and space systems for customers in more than 150 countries. With a commercial airline market share of approximately 43%, Boeing remains a central player in global aviation. The company enters 2026 focused on production ramp-up, certification milestones for the 737 MAX 7, MAX 10 and 777-9, and a strategic recovery path under CEO Kelly Ortberg. Its extensive order backlog and diversified defence programs continue to underpin long-term growth opportunities.

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