Research notes

JHX held its combined James Hardie and AZEK Investor Day in New York on 15 September 2026. The day centred on the “built to outperform, resilient by design” tagline, as management guided to 4% to 7% organic sale growth above market, while stressing the growth did not require a US housing recovery to work. The growth is meant to come from the AZEK combination, synergies running ahead of plan, and a leaner, lower-capex portfolio after the Europe sale. The positive company story and the growth trajectory are only partially offset by the tough macro, a 75bps rise in the 30-year mortgage rate over the past six months, and a peer multiple de-rate. On this basis we upgrade to an Accumulate rating, whilst moderating our target price to A$43.00 (from A$45.00).

Following the recent A$60m placement, MM8 is fully funded to deliver first production from the Cosmic Boy Concentrator (CBC) restart while simultaneously advancing a pipeline of highly prospective resource growth opportunities. We maintain our BUY rating and lift our price target to A$1.11 per share (previously A$0.99 per share).

We have updated our forecasts on The Lottery Corporation (TLC) given domestic lottery conditions have not improved since the FY26 result. We have marked our lottery tracker to market and now have tracked turnover running high single digits behind the prior comparative period. We cut FY27/28F Lotteries revenue by 2-3% and Lotteries EBITDA by 3-4%, with EPS down 6%/4%. The change is a lower jackpot assumption, partly offset by a lower jackpot share of turnover as base games and three price increases carry more of the mix. We upgrade TLC to ACCUMULATE from Hold on share price weakness, with a revised 12-month target price of $5.40 (previously $5.60). Following the September bond issue, our FY27 interest costs remain broadly unchanged with FY28 lifted nominally. At c.16.5x 12-month forward EV/EBITDA and a 3.3% fully franked yield, we think a poor sequence is in the price, and see upside from here if conditions improve.

Founded in Spain, Inditex (ITX.MAD) began in 1963 when AmancioOrtega opened a small dressmaking workshop. Twelve years later, the first Zara store was opened in Spain, signalling Ortega’s transition from maker to retailer. In 1985, Inditex brought all its companies together under the one banner, making it an official retail conglomerate. The brand continued to grow by expanding worldwide, adding new brands to the group and going public on the Madrid Stock Exchange. Now, the group features seven brands, operating over 5,800 stores in 213 markets worldwide.

Cash surprise drives dividend beat - Strong operational delivery and a year-end cash balance of A$485m supported a fully franked 30cps final dividend, materially ahead of MorgansF (20cps) and consensus (14cps). Operational performance exceeded expectations - NHC delivered record saleable coal production of 11.5Mt and coal sales of 11.8Mt, exceeding the top end of guidance and demonstrating the resilience of its operations despite disruptions throughout the year. Strong run, balanced view - NHC shares have rallied 60% YTD, supported by stronger coal prices and improving market sentiment. While we remain constructive on thermal coal fundamentals, the recent share price performance may provide an opportunity for investors to crystallise some gains. We maintain our HOLD rating with an increased price target of A$6.05 per share.

Three announcements in four days: a new CEO, an NIH-funded Expanded Access Program (EAP) for NUZ-001, and a partial redemption of the Obsidian convertible notes. The thesis is unchanged, but the risk profile is tidier heading into the topline readout in 2Q’CY27 which is the major near-term value inflection point. The CEO hire is a major point of interest. Dr Chris Bremer brings more than US$1bn of executed licensing deals, which reads to us as pre-positioning for a partnering outcome rather than a solo launch. We view this positively. We have re-outlined the risked weights and the de-risking path in full. No change to our SPECULATIVE BUY rating or A$0.20 target price.

Our Valuation of A3.3cps is underpinned by the Horden Lake Cu-Ni-Au-Pt-Pd-Ag-Co deposit, Quebec. Metallurgical testwork confirms copper recoveries of >90%, with 50-70% of the precious metals (Au/Pt/Pd/Ag) recovered, predominantly in a 24% Cu concentrate, and recovery of 50% of contained nickel to an attractive 12% Ni concentrate, containing recovered cobalt. Quebec is an attractive exploration and mining jurisdiction, ranking well on the various studies into investment attractiveness and corruption. Hydroelectric power dominates the Quebec grid, with electricity amongst the lowest cost in the world. The Quebec government supports flow-through share financing. Its Natural Resource and Energy Fund for direct equity investment in projects has C$1 billion. The levels of metal prices and price expectations are critical for PVT, with approximately 50% of the in-situ metal value attributable to copper. There is potential to increase the Horden Lake resource. Exploration is in progress on the Belleterre tenements for high grade gold and polymetallic deposits.

Following the update on 3/09 that VYS was in discussion with the NewGround vendors to extend the completion date of the transaction agreement, VYS confirmed today that both parties have mutually agreed not to proceed with an extension, and the agreement will therefore be terminated. Unwinding NewGround from our forecasts sees PBT fall by 14% in FY27 and 19% in FY28 (first full year of ownership). At EPS we reduce our forecast by 11% and FY28 by 14%. Unwinding the cash consideration and noting the recent $65m raise – which included ~$15m for growth initiatives and working capital – the company has significant balance sheet optionality. Our target price falls in line with our earnings downgrades to $1.20 (from $1.40). The stock is now trading on 21x PE in Welltech’s first full year of ownership (FY28), with a gold-plated balance sheet. No value is being ascribed to the asset management business with catalysts imminent in relation to offtake and the 5C licence.

We review the CEO’s new long-term incentive targets (upside potential if achieved without heightened capital intensity), Network’s recent debt issue and risk-free rate influences, and the reactivated buyback program. Forecast changes at the group level are immaterial. Target price $3.50/sh (-6 cps). Potential TSR at current prices of 0% (including 6.3% yield based on upper end of FY27 DPS guidance). HOLD retained.

RMS is expected to release FY27 guidance and an updated outlook to FY30 in Sep-26, following execution of the EPC contract for the Mt Magnet mill expansion, providing greater clarity on project costs and timing. Following an analyst change, we retain our BUY recommendation with a revised price target of A$4.74 per share.