Research notes
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Research Notes
PLS: the current resource is merely a suggestion
Paladin Energy
September 8, 2026
The current Patterson Lake South (PLS) resource may only represent part of the story - The mine plan supports ~9Mlbpa over nine years, yet mineralisation remains open at depth and along strike, drilling density declines materially below 350m. We expect the resource and mine life to increase materially in time. Simply simple - PLS is one of the highest-grade undeveloped uranium projects globally, but its development plan is surprisingly conventional, with a TBM decline, proven mining methods, a standard Athabasca processing flowsheet and uncomplicated tailings storage reducing technical risk. We maintain an ACCUMULATE rating with a reduced price target A$13.30ps (previously A$14.10ps) with the removal of our 10% price premium.
International Spotlight
NVIDIA Corp
September 7, 2026
NVIDIA Corporation is an American semiconductor company and a global manufacturer of high-end graphics processing units (GPUs). The company is based in California and has five operating segments: (1) Data Center, (2) Gaming, (3) Professional Visualisation, (4) Automotive, and (5) Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM). As the engine of Artificial Intelligence (AI), NVIDIA is committed to accelerating the growth of generative AI, by recognising it as a new computing platform, like the PC, internet and mobile-cloud.
International Spotlight
salesforce.com, inc.
September 7, 2026
Salesforce was founded in 1999 in San Francisco, California. It is the leading Customer Relationship Management (CRM) software provider and pioneered Software as a Service (SaaS). Salesforce’s pioneering SaaS model meant it was the first company to have all its software and customer data hosted on the internet and made available via monthly subscription.
FY26 result: Personal injury doing the heavy lifting
Shine Justice
September 4, 2026
SHJ reported FY26 adjusted EBITDA of A$44.7m (A$39.3m pcp) and adjusted NPAT of A$15.8m (A$9.7m pcp). Personal Injury contributed to the strong result, with EBITDA up 18.4% to A$36.6m. Statutory EBITDA was A$31.7m and NPAT A$6.7m, after a A$13.0m write-down on a legacy class action (an A$11.2m revenue constraint increase and A$1.8m of disbursement write-downs). SHJ is considering an appeal. Operating cash flow was steady at A$19.0m. Net WIP rose to A$366.6m, cash fell to A$12.5m and net debt increased to A$86.3m (including leases). A fully franked final dividend of 2.5c was declared (FY26 total 4.0c, vs 5.0c pcp).
FY26 result: Slowly turning the corner
Bapcor
September 4, 2026
FY26 EBITDA of A$152m (-35% yoy) came in slightly ahead of guidance (+2% above the top end) supported by improved performances within Networks/Retail. Turnaround initiatives are beginning to take shape, with emerging signs of improving sales momentum through the 2H (+0.4% LFL in final 5 months), which has carried into FY27 (sales slightly ahead yoy led by Trade parts and Networks). BAP is pointing to modest FY27 sales growth and a materially stronger 2H NPAT skew. The balance sheet position (~1.7x gearing) and signs of operational stability suggest the group can return to earnings growth in FY27. Whilst still early in the turnaround, the group is beginning to make some progress. Upgrade to HOLD.
From FY26 to the future
MyState
September 4, 2026
MYS delivered a solid 2H26 result, with underlying EPS +7% vs 1H26, ROTE approaching double-digits, and a 0.5 cps bump to the DPS. Strategy remains on track, with underlying growth, Auswide merger cost synergies on schedule, accelerated growth in the higher-returning Selfco and TPT Wealth businesses, and potential for further M&A.
Target-rich, strategically backed and well-funded
G50 Corp
September 3, 2026
G50 continues to unlock value across its asset base, with recent activity extending the Golconda system, delivering a high-grade gold discovery at White Caps, and advancing potential gallium development pathways amid an increasingly supportive backdrop for critical minerals. Following the recent Hancock-cornerstoned placement, the Company is well funded to accelerate exploration and advance potential gallium monetisation pathways, supporting early cash flow, financing and permitting for the broader Golconda deposit. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a target price of A$1.94ps.
Guidance upgrade dependent on leasing
Centuria Industrial REIT
September 3, 2026
CIP delivered FY26 FFO of 18.2cpu and distributions of 16.8cpu, both in line with guidance but at the bottom of the upgraded 18.2-18.5cpu range, and 1% below MorgansF of 18.4cpu. CIP produced +5.2% like-for-like NOI growth, a near record 226,200sqm of leasing completed, spreads moderating to 30%, and +$116m like-for-like valuation gains, resulting in NTA up 2.3% to $4.01/unit. FY27 FFO guidance of 18.8-19.2cpu was above market expectations, while the 17.3cpu of distribution guidance in FY27 reflects a more modest 3% growth (vs pcp), driven by rent reversion leasing in the second half. We rate CIP ACCUMULATE, with a $3.25/sh PT, as the 6% distribution should continue to grow as rental income grows through a mix of positive rent reversion and lease indexation.
FY26 result: Interest costs to remain a headwind
Dexus Industria REIT
September 3, 2026
DXI reported a solid result (12-Aug) although FY27 guidance came in below market expectations, with FFO forecast to decline 3.4% (vs pcp) to 17.0 cps, as DXI cycles off the sale of its high-yielding suburban office assets, whilst also navigating higher interest charges. Distributions in FY27 remain unchanged at 16.6cps. DXI currently trades at a 29% discount to NTA, with a 6.9% distribution yield (FY27). We rate DXI a HOLD, with a $2.35/sh price target.
All on track for CY26 guidance
Waypoint REIT
September 3, 2026
WPR’s 1H26 result was marginally ahead of our expectations, with management reaffirming CY26 Distributable EPS (DEPS) guidance of 17.14cps. With limited expiries in CY27/28 (13% of NLA), WPR remains sensitive to the wider rate environment, and physical asset transactions point to some incremental softening in cap rates, albeit highly contingent on asset quality and location. Trading at a c.7% distribution yield and 20% discount to NTA we do see value. However, higher rates are likely to remain a headwind to earnings growth over CY27/28. To this end, our target price remains broadly unchanged at $2.55, as we reiterate our ACCUMULATE recommendation on valuation grounds.
News & insights
September 4, 2026
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