Research notes

MGH management have set a new course, underpinned by a growing pipeline of Firmus related data centre projects and $130m of EBITDA from the existing (and growing) civil construction and engineering division. The business currently has a market cap of $1.8bn, with a net cash balance of c.$650m (post transaction and Firmus investment) and an expanded data centre pipeline to potentially deliver c.$333m of value. Netting out cash ($650m) and our estimate of the Firmus earnings (PV: $245m), we derive a net market cap of $870m, reflecting a PER (net of cash) of 11.8x (on the residual business) – cheap given the DC optionality and relative to peers (c.15x PER). Whilst the new strategic vision for MGH is in its infancy, the current share price is too cheap on a fundamental basis, while the blue sky potential gives investors the chance for outsized returns. On this basis, we reiterate our Buy recommendation with our target price increasing to $6.00/sh.

HUB’s 3Q26 net-flows of $4.0bn came in largely in-line with MorgF, albeit the period saw near-term run-rate momentum slow, with HUB’s flows only marginally exceeding NWL’s during the quarter. Positively, adviser growth accelerated in 3Q26, which remains supportive of net inflows outlook. Market momentum remains positive month to date in Apr’26, placing mark-to-markets on track to recover lost momentum in Mar’26 (ASX200 +5.5% MTD) HUB’s FY27 FUA growth trajectory remains on track despite near-term headwinds. We retain our ACCUMULATE rating, with a revised price target of $96.50/sh.

CWY hosted an investor strategy day and tour of its Melbourne Regional Landfill. It discussed how it intends to grow earnings and cashflows across its FY27-30 strategy period. We expect investors will be particularly pleased by management’s language about expected free cashflow growth (hasn’t historically kept pace with underlying earnings growth). We moderate our EPS forecasts so as to move closer to CWY’s medium term growth expectations. FY27 consensus EPS looks likely to be downgraded as higher interest rates are reflected in interest costs. Target price reset to $2.80ps given lower long-term growth assumption. BUY retained given c.21% potential TSR at current prices.

MAF has released its 1Q26 operating update. The key takeaway from the quarterly, in our view, was a softer Asset Management performance, impacted by market volatility, which overshadowed continuing robust MA Money loan book growth. We downgrade our MAF FY26F/FY27F EPS by ~6-7% on reduced Asset Management AUM forecasts and greater conservatism in our Corporate Advisory estimates. Our price target is revised to A$10.93 (from A$11.69). MAF has demonstrated consistent delivery in recent periods and, in our view, is well placed to deliver strong long-term growth. With >20% upside to our price target following recent share price weakness, we maintain our BUY call.

The recent share price weakness looks overdone in our view. We have used the pullback as an opportunity to reassess key assumptions (ASP, settlement volumes, home build margins and gearing) in the context of the Iran conflict, a higher rate outlook, softer auction clearance rates and renewed cost inflation concerns. Ultimately, we remain enthused and our investment thesis is unchanged. We take the opportunity to upgrade our ACCUMULATE recommendation to BUY. We remain positive on GLF's near-term and long-term earnings growth prospects. Firstly, the demand thematic remains favorable, supported by a lack of downsizing options for an aging population and a customer cohort less exposed to financing and affordability pressures than other residential segments. Second, GLF's pipeline and current level of development activity leave the business well placed to capitalise on this demand and drive meaningful volume growth over the next few years. Lastly management has built a robust business model, characterised by low inventory risk, a vertically integrated platform and a demonstrated track record of managing home build margins through varying cost environments which we believe position GLF well to navigate the current operating landscape. Our target price of A$5.66 p/sh (was $5.84) is based on an equal blend of our DCF ($5.64, was $5.68), PER ($5.61, was $5.79) and SOTP ($5.72, was $6.05).

EBITDA margins continue to show resilience, expanding to ~23% in 3Q from ~20% in 2Q and up from ~11.5% in 3Q25, showing MSV has delivered a step-change in business performance in FY26. MSV exits Q3 in a strong position on its balance sheet, carrying net debt of $0.9m, after absorbing the $8.5m (4cps) dividend payment made during the quarter. This positions management with capital allocation optionality as it enters 4Q25 and looks toward FY27. MSV continued to execute well in 3Q, with FY26 shaping up as a strong year for earnings, sustainably higher EBITDA margins, improving free cash flow, and scope for ongoing shareholder returns. We upgrade to an ACCUMULATE rating (previously HOLD) on MSV with a target price of A$0.55ps.

RPL has released its March 2026 quarterly FUM update. This was a soft quarter (FUM -3%) for RPL as hedge fund investment performance suffered on the back of volatile market conditions. FUM bounced back in Apr-26. We update our RPL numbers for the quarterly following a broad review of our FUM expectations for the CY26. Our CY26/27/28F EPS estimates are revised down -2%, reflecting more conservative FUM assumptions for the current year. Our valuation declines on the back of lower peer multiples and higher cost of capital assumptions. Target price $4.20/sh. We maintain our RPL BUY rating with >20% upside to our price target.

Recent strong tin price growth is expected to continue with electrification, supply constraints in the current geopolitical situation, and enhanced Environmental. Social and Governance (ESG) focus in tin producing jurisdictions. Since delivery of the definitive feasibility study for Oropesa, Spain, in May 2025, (US$156M capex, producing 3,400tpy of tin in concentrate, projected cost US$15,000/t) ELT has advanced the regulatory and administrative approvals. Since the DFS, the tin price has lifted from ˜US$30,000/t to ˜US$50,000/t. We now model US$35,000/t (previously US$30,000/t) for tin to generate a Valuation of A$0.57ps (previously A$0.50) and a Target Price discounted by 10% to A$0.51ps (previously A$0.30).

We revise our forecasts ahead of ANZ’s 1H26 result in May and reflecting on the recent updates provided by NAB and WBC. FY26-28F EPS downgraded by 6-7%. Target price reduced 6% to $30.72/sh. SELL retained given c.-15% downside at current prices, including 4.4% cash yield.

NGI has released its March 2026 quarterly AUM update. This was a broadly solid quarter, in our view, punctuated by a +9% increase in group Ownership adjusted AUM in a volatile market, and robust quarterly net flows into Lighthouse (+US$1.2bn). We update our NGI numbers for the quarterly and also following a broad review of our earnings assumptions. Our FY26F EPS estimate is revised down -3%, reflecting more conservative performance fee assumptions for the current year, while FY27F EPS moves up +2% on higher FUM estimates following today's update. Our PT is largely unchanged at A$2.97. We maintain our NGI BUY rating with >20% upside to our PT.