Research notes

Given SLC upgraded FY26 EBITDA guidance in mid-June 2026 and won’t provide FY27 guidance until it’s AGM in November, the result was largely as expected. It is worth noting underlying EBITDA was slightly above the top end of guidance, marking the third upgrade in FY26. The composition of the result underpins our comfort that FY27 consensus expectations for ~$150m of underlying EBITDA are achievable. We retain our HOLD recommendation but lift our Target Price to $3.40.

TLC delivered a resilient FY26 result against a 1 in c.45 year jackpot cycle, with base game growth of 5.6% and opex of $296m, below the guided range, offsetting the c.$350m revenue impact from soft jackpots. Price retention held up well, with 63% on Powerball and 100% on Saturday lotto, and the dividend was maintained at 16.5cps. Looking ahead, new FY27 guidance rebases opex to $305-315m and D&A to $125-130m, and with conditions still softer against undemanding comps, we have cut our top-line Lotteries forecasts by 2-3% across FY27-28F. Below the line, the reclassification of Keno revenue, the exit from online Keno and higher interest costs following the Victorian licence renewal drive c.6-7% EPS cuts. We retain our Hold recommendation, with a revised price target of $5.60 (prev. $5.70).

WHC delivered a mixed result, with EBITDA broadly in line with consensus expectations, although underlying NPAT missed slightly. A 6c dividend was declared, consistent with consensus. The effects of poor coal prices in the 1H provided a significant headwind for the full-year result. FY27 guidance was softer than expected, with production growth appearing limited given the unchanged upper end of group guidance, while both costs and capital expenditure expectations have moved higher. We move to a HOLD rating (previously BUY) due to recent share price strength and valuation updates with a reduced target price of A$8.05ps (previously A$8.50)

A healthy 1H26 result from STO, beating estimates with management confident following the start-up of Barossa and Pikka. The interim dividend will be funded out of debt, but is entirely reasonable given the 25:75 skew we expect in CY26 earnings as operations ramp up and lagged oil increases flow through. It is impossible to quantify the risks posed by the Federal Government’s gas reservation policy ahead of its release, but we hope it offers support for new gas supply growth that will be needed by the energy market in the coming years. Trading near fair value we maintain a HOLD rating, with a A$7.90 target price.

SVR’s FY26 result was broadly in line with expectations, with the group delivering Normalised NPAT of $36.1m (vs. Guidance for $36.0m). The Group’s gross loan book grew +4.8% YoY to $953.4m (ahead of MorgF $929m) with growth in Australian receivables +10.5% YoY to $920.3m. SVR’s NZ receivables ended the period at $33.1m. Net interest income of $145.7m was down 6% YoY, ~3% lower vs. MorgF. NIM of 15.6% declined 190bps YoY, reflecting decreased NZ income. Positive origination momentum seen in 2H26 has continued into early 1H27, supporting SVR’s broader commercial push and book growth targets (to >$1bn) over the year ahead. We retain our ACCUMULATE rating with a PT of $1.78/sh.

SHAPE delivered another year of strong earnings growth for FY26. Revenue of $1,239m (+30% vs pcp), EBITDA of $50.1m (+53.1% vs pcp) and NPAT of $31.7m (+50.3% vs pcp) all came in modestly ahead of our forecasts and at the top end of management’s guidance. The group enters FY27 with a solid $628m backlog and a $4.8bn pipeline, which will support near-term growth. Pleasingly, the growth has continued to come from broadening end-sector exposure. We note FY27 will also benefit from the inclusion of the APS acquisition and a full-year contribution from Arden. We retain our BUY recommendation. We make minimal changes to our near-term NPAT forecasts (<2%); however, we revise our price target to $8.11 per share as we introduce a PER-based valuation weighted equally alongside our DCF.

An in-line FY26 result, with EVN declaring a final dividend of 21cps (vs MorgansF 18cps/consensus 23cps) after increasing its dividend payout policy to 60% of group cash flow (from 50%). FY27 group-level guidance was largely in line, with consensus towards the top end of copper guidance and the bottom end of capex guidance. Move to a HOLD rating (previously BUY) with a A$14.40ps target price.

With guidance largely qualitative, we believe there is every reason earnings growth can continue, as SEQ demand remains largely unabated, Construction Materials (CM) earnings benefit from the expanding plant network, and further pultrusion lines are added to the CFT division. Input costs are likely to drag in FY27, however topline growth should offset this, seeing our EPS grow at c.10% (FY27), and 16% in FY28. The FY26 result beat both prior guidance and our expectations, with the key CM and CFT divisions printing strong EBIT growth (vs pcp). The stock is trading at 19x FY27, and c.16x FY28 which is in line with domestic and offshore peers, whilst providing superior growth over the next three years, add in potential Olympics wins in FY27/28 and we see scope for the stock to re-rate. On this basis we reiterate our Buy recommendation with a $5.25/sh price target.

VVA delivered a strong FY26 result, which was slightly ahead of guidance. VVA focused on greater utilisation of existing facilities, rather than opening greenfield sites, lifting average members per club to a record 1,351. Utilisation was above 80% and EBITDA margins expanded 50bps to 47.4%. The board declared a maiden dividend of 3.0cps. We have increased NPAT by 2%/8% respectively in FY27/28. Our valuation increases to $2.27 (from $2.00). We maintain our BUY recommendation.

FY26 results were mixed, with revenue and underlying EBITDA broadly in line, but underlying EBIT 5% below consensus and at the bottom of guidance, reflecting still-thin Pathology margins. Encouragingly, Pathology EBIT margin improved materially in 2H, while labour costs fell 2.9% and group cost growth was contained. Agilex was again a clear positive, with revenue and earnings growth ahead of expectations. While FY27 EBIT guidance of A$39.7m is broadly in line with expectations, the T27 target for mid-to-high single-digit EBIT margins was extended by c18 months to Dec-28, leaving us cautious on the pace and sustainability of earnings leverage. We adjust FY27-28 estimates, with our target price increasing to A$0.43. HOLD