Research notes

Gold production met expectations despite weather and maintenance impacts, with weaker copper and higher AISC driven by Ernest Henry disruptions. Strong 4Q26 expected to achieve FY26 guidance. Achieves net cash position with an updated capital management policy expected at its FY26 result in August. We upgrade to an ACCUMULATE (from HOLD) following recent weakness across the gold sector which we believe has uncovered value in a high-quality name, despite a strong share price reaction post the result.

Pleasingly, NUF’s 1H26 EBITDA guidance was slightly higher than expected and it has had a strong 1H. Importantly, its leverage guidance is materially better than expected. Initial outlook comments for the 2H26 were positive and a new A$50m cost out program has been announced. Given the appreciation in active ingredient and fish oil prices, NUF’s previous FY26 guidance could prove to be conservative. NUF is our key pick of the ag and chemical sector. The company is materially undervalued and we reiterate our BUY rating with a new price target of A$4.05.

Nike, Inc. is a global leader in athletic footwear, apparel and equipment with an estimated market share in 2023 of 39% (investing.com). Nike’s iconic ‘Swoosh’ logo is one of the most recognisable consumer brands in the world. Nike sells directly through over 1,000 retail stores and ecommerce platforms, as well as through wholesale channels. It employs a contract manufacturing model.

Roche Holding AG is a Swiss multinational healthcare company that operates worldwide under two divisions: Pharmaceuticals and Diagnostics. Roche Pharma is focused on finding new medicines and diagnostics that help patients and evolve the practice of medicine. It treats ~28m people with its medicines and has 32 products on the WHO list of essential medicines. Roche Diagnostics develops diagnostics tests, instruments and digital solutions. This enables the collection of data, generating accurate and high-quality information that is used to inform clinical diseases around infections.

Pfizer is a research based pharmaceutical company that focuses on drug discovery for human diseases. It has a global portfolio including medicines and vaccines, as well as many other health care products. Its top 10 medicines and vaccines include: Comirnaty, Paxlovid, Eliquis, Prevnar, Ibrance, Vyndaqel, Xeljanz, Xtandi, Enbrel and Inlyta. The company collaborates with health care providers, governments and local communities to support and expand access to reliable, affordable health care around the world. It has key franchises in cardiovascular, infectious diseases, inflammatory conditions and vaccines.

Novo Nordisk is a Danish multinational pharmaceutical company providing innovative treatment for five chronic diseases. Its products treat type 1 and 2 diabetes, obesity, haemophilia and growth disorders. It is most known for its diabetes treatments. Ozempic is its main revenue stream, which is for the treatment of adults with insufficiently controlled type 2 diabetes.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is an American based miner that is heavily focused on copper mining and produces gold and molybdenum as by-products to its copper production. FCX owns significant interests in three out of seven of the largest copper mines in the world by-production, the Grasberg Minerals district in Indonesia, the Morenci mine in Arizona, and the Cerro Verde mine in Peru. Indonesia is the largest source of FCX’s revenue. The Grasberg district in Indonesia is the second largest copper mine in the world and the largest gold mine, despite gold being produced as a by-product. Additionally, it is one of the lowest cost mines in the world due to the high grades of copper and gold produced. FCX operates seven open pit copper mines in North America and two copper mines in South America.

Eli Lilly and Co is an American pharmaceutical company headquartered in Indianapolis. It engages in the discovery, development, manufacture and sale of pharmaceutical products. Its portfolio of medicine includes treatments in the areas of bone muscle joints, cancer, cardiovascular, diabetes, endocrine, immunology, neurodegeneration, neuroscience, and pain. Its products include Forteo, Adrica, BAQSIMI, Basaglar and Glucagn.

We expect a material decline in 1H26 earnings, with recent share price strength driven by the expected capital return from the equipment finance whole-of-loan sale. Share price strength has compressed total return potential to c.5%. As such, we moderate our rating from ACCUMULATE to HOLD. Target price $7.39.

CWY has revised down its FY26 EBIT guidance as a result of the impacts of the war in the Middle East. We have updated our forecasts for the EBIT guidance downgrade and higher interest rate environment. EBITDA downgrades are relatively small but EPS downgrades are material in the short term given the funding and depreciation costs of CWY’s asset base. Target price $2.95/sh. BUY retained. Potential upside catalyst is next Tuesday’s strategy briefing.