Research notes

STO's 2Q26 came with a FY26 production guidance cut to 99-105mmboe from 101-111mmboe and delivered sales revenue 10% below consensus. However, we believe a solid 2H uplift is likely, driven by Barossa and Pikka both ramping up. At A$7.68, STO is already close to fair value on our numbers. Behind that sits the Federal east coast gas reservation process, on which STO is the most exposed gas producer in our coverage, a risk that is difficult to quantify and could easily escalate further in terms of implications for the gas industry. Maintain HOLD with A$7.90 target price (was A$8.30).

KAR's June quarter delivered what we argued for when we upgraded a month ago. Bauna is repaired and running at ~22,000 bopd, the heavy intervention spend is sunk, and we have 2H26 swinging to ~US$100m of free cash flow, a ~US$220m turnaround on the first half. The problem is the share price got there first. KAR has added 20% since we wrote on 29 June, closing almost all of the gap to our valuation, while the portfolio risk has migrated from Brazil to the Gulf of Mexico. At a price of A$1.71, vs a A$1.75 target, we see the value opportunity as having largely closed. We downgrade to HOLD (from Buy) with a A$1.75 target price.

Guidance delivered – WHC delivered in FY26 with ROM Coal production and Coal Sales coming in at the top end of guidance, while unit costs and capex tracked towards the lower end of their respective ranges. Refinanced for added flexibility – Recent refinancing has lowered funding costs and extended debt maturities, leaving WHC better placed to navigate commodity market volatility and focus on FY27 operational delivery. Queensland was firing – A strong rebound from Blackwater and Daunia drove an inline ROM Coal production result, highlighting the production leverage power of the Queensland portfolio and more than offsetting ongoing operational challenges at Narrabri. We upgrade our rating to BUY (previously ACCUMULATE) following recent share price weakness, but with a reduced price target of A$8.50ps (previously A$9.20ps).

A broadly in-line result with small beats and misses across the board despite the Cadia disruption, with the qoq earnings decline driven by a lower realised gold price rather than operating performance. NEM’s capital returns remain best in class among its gold peers, with US$1.9bn returned this quarter implying a capital return yield of around 7-8%. Maintain BUY with a A$194ps target price.

RTX Corporation is an aerospace and defence company that provides systems and services for commercial, military, and government customers worldwide.

Nestlé SA is the world’s largest food and beverage company. It engages in the manufacture, supply and production of prepared dishes and cooking aids, milk-based products, pharmaceuticals and ophthalmic goods, baby foods and cereals.

Honeywell International is a world-wide diversified technology and manufacturing company. It consists of four key segments: (1) Aerospace, (2) Performance Materials & Technologies, (3) Building Technologies, and (4) Safety & Productivity Solutions. The company was founded in 1885 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, United States.

General Motors Company (GM-US), headquartered in Detroit, is a global automotive company known for brands like Chevrolet and Cadillac, offering a diverse portfolio of vehicles. A market leader with considerable scale, GM has global operations and employs over 165,000 staff worldwide.

Netflix, Inc. provides entertainment services. It offers TV series, documentaries, feature films, and games across various genres and languages. The company also provides members the ability to receive streaming content through a host of internet-connected devices, including TVs, digital video players, TV set-top boxes, and mobile devices. It has operations in approximately 190 countries and streams in over 30 languages. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.

6KA delivered a strong June quarter update, with revenue up 63% to US$7.1m. This implies an annualised run-rate of ~US$28m, up from ~US$25m in 1Q26. Both the Powder (+63%) and Alloy (+62%) segments delivered strong revenue growth on the pcp, with a higher order backlog (+23% qoq) supporting ongoing sales momentum in 2H26. Pleasingly, 6KA said the Burgettstown expansion remains on schedule, with initial production from the expanded facility expected by the end of CY26. On the back of the strong 2Q26 performance, we increase CY26F revenue by 5% to US$24.0m. While our CY27 and CY28 forecasts remain unchanged as 6KA enters the critical stages of the Burgettstown expansion over coming months, strong execution could see upside risk to our medium-term assumptions. Our target price rises marginally to $1.31 (from $1.30) and we maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating. In our view, 6KA remains well positioned to benefit from strong demand in metal additive manufacturing and US initiatives to reshore critical minerals, supported by its fully domestic powder production which reduces reliance on foreign-controlled feedstock.