Research notes

GDG has provided a 3Q26 quarterly update. This quarterly was something of a familiar story, in our view - the Investment Bond business again delivered ahead of expectations, while Evidentia once again fell short of the mark. We lower our GDG FY26F/FY27F EPS by -4%-11% on more conservative earnings estimates particularly around Evidentia. Our price target is set at A$6.16 (previously A$6.66). We continue to be attracted to GDG’s exposure to structural growth areas, and its strong competitive positioning in these markets. With GDG trading at a >20% discount to our target price, we maintain our Buy recommendation.

COH has delivered a material downgrade to FY26 earnings, cutting guidance by c30% at the midpoint. While FX, geopolitics and cost actions contributed, the key takeaway is more fundamental, with CI demand, especially in developed markets, proving to be more cyclical and macro-sensitive than previously assumed. This challenges the market’s long-held view as a structural, volume-driven growth story largely insulated from economic cycles. While we view long-term fundamentals as intact, near-term earnings visibility has deteriorated materially, so we wait for demand stabilisation before re-engaging. We adjust our FY26-28 estimates and lower our target price to A$107.17 HOLD.

Airtasker’s (ART) broadly solid 3Q26 update was underpinned by a strong GMV performance from the domestic marketplace, AU GMV being up ~18% on the pcp to ~A57m. Pleasingly, this momentum was also mirrored in its US/UK marketplaces which continue to scale. 3Q26 Group revenue was +~12% on the pcp to A$15.2m. Whilst our forecasts remain unchanged at this juncture, we adopt the new house risk-free rate of 4.6% (from 4.2%) into our valuation. Our price target is lowered to A$0.47 from A$0.51 as a result. We retain our BUY recommendation.

Gold sold of 381koz at AISC of A$2,709/oz beat our revised expectations, with sequential improvement across all three production centres following ongoing production issues. KCGM Mill Expansion on track for commissioning in early FY27; FY26 guidance has been provided and is above 1,500koz at AISC of A$2,600–2,800/oz. Net cash of A$320m; A$500m on-market buy-back announced, commencing ~23 April. We maintain our BUY rating, price target A$30.00ps (unchanged).

The Bramaderos (STM 87.5%) scoping study evaluated a low strip ratio (1.4:1) open pit with conventional processing to produce ~120kozpy gold equivalent (AuEq) over 23 years at a projected all-in sustaining cost (AISC) US$1,499/oz net of copper-silver credits, with upfront capital cost estimated at US$511M. The study is based only on the 3.6Moz AuEq Brama/Alba/Melonal deposit. Recent trenching at Porotillo reported 22m @ 1.19g/t AuEq and 29m @ 0.91g/t AuEq – both intersections open - above a drill hole of 24m @ 1.47g/t AuEq. Sunstone has an 87.5% interest in the Bramaderos tenement (London-listed SolGold Plc 12.5%), in southern Ecuador, hosting Brama/Alba/Melonal, Capete/Porotillo, Limon and other prospects. It is earning a 100% interest in El Palmar (1.2Moz AuEq in resource) and Verde Chico, northern Ecuador.

EBO has revised its FY26 EBITDA guidance down by ~2% (at the mid-point) noting elevated fuel and energy costs. We sat at the upper end of the previous guidance range which together with an adjustment to interest charges sees us downgrade EPS by ~8% in FY26. We have moved our target price to A$22.92 (from A$28.07) taking a cautious view of the near term. We see growth returning in FY28, in the meantime the yield is attractive at ~6%. Despite the share price weakness there is significant upside to our target price and we maintain a BUY recommendation. We note the Investor Day next week may restore some investor confidence.

3Q26 EBITDA of A$17.9m (A$21.1m pcp), bringing YTD FY26 EBITDA +5% yoy. Importantly, FY26 guidance of A$70-75m was reaffirmed (+22% yoy at mid-point). Volumes have remained stable, with process improvements delivered in Collision during the quarter expected to support a meaningful step-up in 4Q margins. Stock screens cheap at ~4x FY26F EV/EBITDA, with momentum building into a seasonally strong 4Q and balance sheet flexibility supporting accretive capital management. Buy maintained.

MGH management have set a new course, underpinned by a growing pipeline of Firmus related data centre projects and $130m of EBITDA from the existing (and growing) civil construction and engineering division. The business currently has a market cap of $1.8bn, with a net cash balance of c.$650m (post transaction and Firmus investment) and an expanded data centre pipeline to potentially deliver c.$333m of value. Netting out cash ($650m) and our estimate of the Firmus earnings (PV: $245m), we derive a net market cap of $870m, reflecting a PER (net of cash) of 11.8x (on the residual business) – cheap given the DC optionality and relative to peers (c.15x PER). Whilst the new strategic vision for MGH is in its infancy, the current share price is too cheap on a fundamental basis, while the blue sky potential gives investors the chance for outsized returns. On this basis, we reiterate our Buy recommendation with our target price increasing to $6.00/sh.

HUB’s 3Q26 net-flows of $4.0bn came in largely in-line with MorgF, albeit the period saw near-term run-rate momentum slow, with HUB’s flows only marginally exceeding NWL’s during the quarter. Positively, adviser growth accelerated in 3Q26, which remains supportive of net inflows outlook. Market momentum remains positive month to date in Apr’26, placing mark-to-markets on track to recover lost momentum in Mar’26 (ASX200 +5.5% MTD) HUB’s FY27 FUA growth trajectory remains on track despite near-term headwinds. We retain our ACCUMULATE rating, with a revised price target of $96.50/sh.

CWY hosted an investor strategy day and tour of its Melbourne Regional Landfill. It discussed how it intends to grow earnings and cashflows across its FY27-30 strategy period. We expect investors will be particularly pleased by management’s language about expected free cashflow growth (hasn’t historically kept pace with underlying earnings growth). We moderate our EPS forecasts so as to move closer to CWY’s medium term growth expectations. FY27 consensus EPS looks likely to be downgraded as higher interest rates are reflected in interest costs. Target price reset to $2.80ps given lower long-term growth assumption. BUY retained given c.21% potential TSR at current prices.