Research notes

2H26 EPS and DPS were flat vs 1H26 and below consensus expectations. >FY27F EPS downgraded c.5%. Target price +2% to $32.32/sh. Achieving FY29 financial targets requires significant outperformance of our forecast. >At current prices, potential TSR is -9%. Trading multiples remain stretched. Four-year equity IRR is c.3% pa, well below opportunity cost. TRIM overweight positions.

Honeymoon beats despite weather disruptions - Drummed production of 359klbs beat MorgansF (+8%) and Consensus (+17%), despite 19 lost production days from heavy rainfall during August. Record IX flow rates largely offset declining tenor, while FY27 guidance remains unchanged. >Wide-spaced transition remains the key value driver - BOE commenced flushing at the first wide-spaced wellfield, with early results supporting BOE’s confidence in the design. Final flushing data and initial leaching results in 2Q27 are expected to be a key validation point for the NFS assumptions underpinning Honeymoon's lower-cost, longer-life future. >The well runs dry - Alta Mesa production collapses 95% yoy. Production fell to just 10klbs U3O8 (100% basis), with permitting delays subsequently forcing a production halt and further eroding confidence in future growth expectations. >We upgrade to a TRIM rating (previously SELL) and an increased price target of A$1.35ps (previously A$1.30ps).

1Q27 EBITDA of A$18.5m was -8% on a strong pcp (A$20.1m), with subdued low severity volumes weighing on Collision and group margin (6.9% vs 7.4% pcp). >Positively, FY27 guidance of A$75-80m was reaffirmed (MorgansF A$75m), ACM delivered record EBITDA, positive operating cash flow and are seeing a modest improvement in volumes to start 2Q FY27. >While the near-term volume backdrop remains challenging, the stock screens cheap at ~4x FY27F EV/EBITDA, and balance sheet flexibility continues to support capital management (ongoing buyback, dividends reinstated). BUY maintained.

TCG has secured an option to acquire JV partner Sodim’s 20% interest in the 4.65Moz Afema Gold Project for ~US$79m (A$112m), taking it to 100% ownership (subject to the State’s 10% free-carried interest). The deal is being funded through an A$120m placement, leaving ~A$130m pro-forma cash ahead of a mid-CY27 FID. >We view the deal is clearly accretive: our ~A$555m valuation of the interest is ~5x the price paid, while the price itself sits broadly in line with our ~A$122m value for Sodim’s 1.5% NSR conversion right. Importantly, consolidated ownership gives TCG full control over project financing and early works ahead of FID. >We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating and lift our target price to A$1.45ps (previously A$1.18).

Hermès International, a French high-fashion luxury goods manufacturer, was founded in 1837 by Thierry Hermès. Hermès is known for its high-end craftsmanship. It specialises in leather goods, lifestyle accessories, home furnishings, fragrances, jewellery, watches, and ready-to-wear apparel. Many of its products have an equestrian theme, reflecting Hermès’ heritage in saddle making. Some of Hermès products, notably the Birkin and Kelly handbags, as well as its silk scarves, have attained iconic status in consumer culture.

Kering is a French multinational luxury goods group and one of the world's foremost luxury conglomerates, alongside LVMH and Richemont. Founded in 1963 by François Pinault, its portfolio is concentrated on personal luxury goods. Core houses include Gucci, Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, Balenciaga, Alexander McQueen, and Brioni, alongside jewellery brands Boucheron, Pomellato, DoDo, and Qeelin.

Nestlé SA is the world’s largest food and beverage company. It engages in the manufacture, supply and production of prepared dishes and cooking aids, milk-based products, pharmaceuticals and ophthalmic goods, baby foods and cereals.

1Q27 was stronger than expected, supported by GM expansion and healthy underlying demand, but contained multiple non-recurring gains. >Underlying product growth remains encouraging, with devices 9% and masks 10%, although ROW device growth benefited from France fleet renewals and US sales from strong demand ahead of price increases and volume-based rebates. >Despite the strong start, FY27 guidance was reiterated, with management pointing to ongoing inflation, higher 2Q costs and moderating ROW device growth. >We make modest adjustments to FY27-29 forecasts, with our target moving to A$40. Given the strong stock recovery and TSR <20%, we move to ACCUMULATE.

DYL has deferred a Final Investment Decision (FID) on Tumas beyond the previously targeted 1Q27, citing uranium equity market conditions that remain disconnected from strengthening uranium fundamentals. >Despite delaying FID, project advancement continues with detailed engineering now 85% complete, civil and concrete works underway and key procurement packages increasingly locked in ahead of full construction. >Cash of A$144.7m at quarter-end provides funding flexibility while DYL continues optimisation work and advances construction readiness activities. >We maintain a SPECULATIVE BUY rating with an unchanged target price of A$1.50ps.

CVL delivered a record 1Q with revenue and NPAT each up ~+70% YoY. The Commonwealth’s acceptance of the OPV baseline schedule is a key milestone, reinforcing our view that weaker cash conversion is a timing issue. With the order book for FY27 already full, a strong and diversified pipeline – across resources and public infrastructure projects – positions CVL for further growth in FY28. We lift NPAT by +11% across our forecast period. Our target price rises to $2.50 (from $2.40). The stock is trading on just 13x PE (FY27), which is far too cheap for a contracting business of CVL’s quality.