Research notes

The Tallebung PFS outlines a capital-efficient, high-margin tin-tungsten-silver project with a base-case pre-tax NPV8 of A$438m and pre-tax IRR of 69% (US$45,000/t Sn, US$1,500/mtu WO3, US$50/oz Ag). The PFS mine plan draws on only ~66% of the current 32.7Mt Resource by tonnes and ~42% of contained tin, leaving significant scope for reserve conversion and mine-life extensions ahead of the DFS. Upside is further supported by deliberately conservative tungsten and silver recovery and payability assumptions. Following an analyst change, we maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating and raise our price target to A$0.40 per share (previously A$0.35).

A solid FY26 result, with an upsized final dividend of US 99cps, against a share price that appears to already factor in more upside, we lower our rating to TRIM. Metal prices were a key driver, but BHP also maintained a solid operating performance on controllable factors against a tough backdrop in FY26.

FY26 PBT landed towards the top end of the revised guidance range and FY27 guidance was reaffirmed offering strong earnings growth. EPS forecasts moderated 2-6%. Target price reduced 5 cps to $1.42/sh. BUY retained, with c.33% potential TSR at current prices.

The FY26 result was broadly in line with expectations, with revenue of US$15.8bn (+3% vs guidance) and underlying NPATA of US$3.1bn. Importantly, underlying Ig demand remains strong, Seqirus delivered seasonal influenza growth despite lower US immunisation rates and transformation savings reached US$176m ahead of target, although Vifor continues to face challenges. While FY27 targets flat top line growth, as Vifor remains a significant drag, the earnings trajectory is becoming increasingly skewed towards recovery, supported by stabilising plasma economics, cost-outs and improved commercial execution. We make modest changes to FY27-28 estimates and increase our blended DCF, PE and EV/EBITDA-based target price to A$187.71 on a multiple roll forward. BUY.

SRG delivered a strong FY26 with EPSA growth of +30%, largely consistent with its 5-year EPSA CAGR of +32%. FY27 guidance was upgraded, and the momentum looks set to continue. Organic growth is strong (2H EBITA +19%) and the order book has risen sharply (+20% in 6 months), providing robust visibility into FY27 and beyond. We increase our target price to $4.70 (from $4.20). Although SRG has re-rated, earnings momentum via organic and inorganic growth could see the company continue to compound +30% EPS growth over the next 3 years. BUY.

With FY27 guidance (6 cpu distribution) issued and an updated NTA ($1.35/sh), the FY26 result goes some way to de-risking HCW. However, a return to stabilised FFO (ps) and cash-covered distributions is likely slower than anticipated (FFO guidance at =4 cpu vs distributions at 6 cpu), and contingent on a progressive ramp up in UHF distributions over time. HCW is trading on an 8% distribution yield and a 47% discount to NTA - clearly attractive metrics. Offsetting this, HCW will be overdistributing while the UHF fund de-levers (UHF gearing at 43%), and subsequently investors should expect HCW’s cash payout ratio to trend down from 1.5x towards <1.0 in FY30, with an underlying payout ratio c.100%. We reiterate our SPECULATIVE BUY, PT $0.85/sh.

SKS recently pre-reported its FY26 headline metrics, the broader result today was mostly in line with our expectations, with the group delivering strong growth for FY26 with PBT +89% YoY. FY27 Guidance for ~53% PBT growth, remains strongly supported by current work in hand, and SKS’s further expanded tender pipeline (which now sits at $1.69bn). We remain optimistic that SKS remains well positioned to see further awards from this pipeline towards the end of CY26, underpinning further momentum for the business. We therefore retain our ACCUMULATE rating, with a $9.80 price target.

RWC’s FY26 result was largely in line with expectations, although the margin outlook was softer than anticipated. The result was overshadowed by Brookfield Capital Partners’ unsolicited, non-binding indicative proposal to acquire 100% of RWC for $4.75 per share. The offer represents a 31.6% premium to RWC’s last closing price of $3.61 and implies an FY26 EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.1x. We reduce our FY27-29 underlying EBITDA forecasts by 5%. Our target price increases to $4.62 (from $3.60) following Brookfield’s takeover proposal, reflecting a 90% weighting to the $4.75 offer and a 10% weighting to our fundamental valuation of $3.42. We maintain our HOLD rating.

FY26 confirms PME is executing at an even higher level than the market gave it credit for. EBIT margin of 74.9% and constant currency EBIT growth of 30.6% both beat expectations comfortably, with the FX-driven softness in headline revenue a currency story, not a demand or execution one. Momentum remains broad-based, implementations are ahead of schedule, renewals are a clean sweep, and the pipeline is opening up in new segments rather than just deepening in existing ones. Looking ahead, FY27 is shaping as a genuine standout year. With four Trinity cohorts and 15 other implementations already banked rather than still ramping, the P&L gets the full run-rate benefit without needing fresh signings just to stand still. Nothing in the result gives us any pause for change versus our positive view. Retain ACCUMULATE call, with our A$230 target price unchanged.