Research notes

1Q27 gold production was soft (-4%/-5% vs MorgansF/consensus), though stronger copper production and record copper prices drove Group AISC ~10% below expectations. FY27 guidance was maintained, weighted to 2H. We have lowered our near-term gold price forecasts, with FY27-29F EBITDA moving -3% to -5%. Maintain HOLD with a A$13.30ps target price.

RIO delivered a largely steady quarter, with slight beats from copper and alumina, iron ore inline, while lithium trailed estimates. Oyu Tolgoi was the highlight in 3Q26, enough to offset lower output from Escondida and Kennecott. RIO’s share price has traded sideways so far through 2026, in a ~20% range. Our new forced ranking is now RIO then S32, BHP and FMG. We maintain a HOLD rating, with a A$162 target price (was A$159).

PDN's 1Q27 result reflected the anticipated slow start to FY27, with Langer Heinrich Mine (LHM) uranium production of 1.0Mlbs below consensus expectations of 1.16Mlbs. Uranium sales of 1.16Mlbs were in line with consensus expectations of 1.13Mlbs. The result was impacted by the flagged and planned July plant shutdown and weaker recovery rates due to ore characteristics. >Mining momentum and realised pricing - mining performance improved qoq following strong performance in 4Q26 and realised pricing increased 12% to US$79.4/lb, a record at LHM. >Following recent share price weakness, we upgrade our rating to BUY (previously ACCUMULATE) with a price target of A$13.10ps (previously A$13.30ps).

In late September AIM hosted its AGM, providing guidance for FY27, outlining its commercial priorities and announcing an on-market share buyback of up to 20.8m shares. Management has guided to FY27 year-end ARR of A$44-46m, FY27 total revenue of A$61-63m and Adjusted EBITDA of A$3.5-4.5m. These are all up YoY but below our expectations. We reduce our forecasts accordingly. Our target price reduces to 24cps and we retain our HOLD recommendation.

DTL has announced it has experienced a strong start to FY27, with gross profits more than 15% above 1H FY26 and PBT over 40% higher than the PCP. >The 1H FY27 result is expected to be positively impacted by some one-off transactions, higher interest income and some timing benefits. Management has guided to FY27 PBT being skewed to the first half with FY27 PBT up YoY. >We now forecast ~20% EPS growth in FY27 (was ~15%) and have a more subdued ~10% EPS growth in FY28. We lift our Target Price to A$13.40 and retain our HOLD recommendation.

BBN has provided a trading update for the first 14 weeks of FY27 which was broadly in line with expectations. Comparable sales growth has moderated to +2.2% from +4.3% in the first 6 weeks of FY27 driven by the ramp up of temporary store closures in the period. 17 stores have now been refurbished to the Store of the Future format; they continue to deliver strong results, with average sales growth of 20% in the first year after re-opening, which sits within the 15-25% target range. BBN has reiterated FY27 guidance for pro-forma NPAT of $19-21m, with sales of $585-600m (3-5% LFL sales growth), and 42% gross margin. Capex guidance was also maintained at $33-37m. We have made no changes to our forecasts, valuation or recommendation. BBN is trading on <8x FY27F PE, which we believe undervalues its earnings growth profile over the next few years. BUY maintained with a $1.62 price target.

EBR completed 40 WiSE implants in 3QCY26, below our expectations, highlighting a disconnect between the clinical opportunity and procedure consistency. The shortfall appears attributable to sales force disruption, due to a leadership transition, implementation of a refocused commercial strategy and additional field training. Notably, WiSE adoption requires a sustained, high-touch sales effort, with representatives previously focused on prioritising the opening of new sites rather than supporting existing accounts and generating repeat procedures. Management is redirecting resources towards activated centres, strengthening territory accountability and changing its sales training model, with early feedback encouraging. We reduce CY26-28 sales to reflect a slower near-term ramp. Our DCF-based valuation moves to A$1.20, based on weaker near-term visibility, execution risk and the possibility that slower adoption extends the period of cash burn. We move to SPECULATIVE BUY.

We initiate coverage of Atomic Eagle (AEU) with a SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation and A$0.80ps target price. AEU offers exposure to Muntanga, a simple, low-capex heap leach uranium project in Zambia, plus a 60% interest in the high-grade Madaouela project in Niger. Buy Muntanga, get Madaouela for free. AEU trades on just A$2.1/lb EV/resource versus the peer average of A$4.8/lb. In our view, the market is largely valuing Muntanga alone, with Madaouela's 116.5Mlb U3O8 foreign resource estimate contributing little to the current share price despite its scale, grade and strategic importance. Near-term catalysts include Madaouela JORC conversion (end-2026), Muntanga North drilling results (Q4 2026) and a Muntanga resource upgrade as AEU works toward its 100Mlb+ target.

Pivotal’s Horden Lake scoping study evaluated an A$428M pre-production capital cost project processing 3.5Mtpy of open pit ore, a life above 8 years, average production of 19,100tpy of copper concentrate with significant precious metal credits, delivering 83% of revenue and 2,200t of nickel in concentrate with cobalt credits for 17% at modelled prices, or 29,100t copper equivalent (CuEq). >The study projected a high margin, with an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of US$2.58/lb copper equivalent - nickel concentrate revenue and precious metal credit revenue converted to revenue to pounds of copper. With that revenue deducted from costs, the projected AISC is US$1.00/lb copper. >Quebec is an attractive exploration and mining jurisdiction. Hydroelectric power dominates the Quebec grid, with electricity amongst the lowest cost in the world around C$0.05/kWh. Generating value for Horden Lake is subject to a successful feasibility study, subsequent financing, development and successful operation.

We view GYG's 1Q27 trading update as evidence that its sales are resilient. Backing out the high-single digit first seven weeks already disclosed (we estimate ~8.5%, supported by the Uber Eats deal), comps ran at ~5.5% in weeks 8-13, transaction-led and in line with the mid-single digit FY27 guidance. >GYG remains our key pick in the QSR sector and the highest-quality operator in our coverage. We lift our FY27 same-store sales (SSS) growth forecast by 50bps to 5.5% and refine our margin mix, which raises FY27 underlying EPS by 1.9% and our price target to A$31.30 (from A$31.00). We move to ACCUMULATE (from BUY) given recent share price appreciation and would be buyers on any weakness.