Research notes

Rigs spinning up - Average operating rigs increased to 62 in 4Q and exited FY26 at 65. MSV and our forecasts expect further rig utilisation through 1H27. Margins are holding strong - Rig mobilisation costs pushed the 4Q EBITDA margin below 20% for the first time in FY26, to 18%. Even so, the full-year EBITDA margin finished at 20.6%, up materially from 13.1% in FY25. Frankly attractive - With a net cash balance sheet, strong cash generation and management explicitly highlighting capital management, we see growing potential for another attractive fully franked dividend outcome at the FY26 result. We move to an ACCUMULATE rating (previously SPECULATIVE BUY) due to recent share price strength and an unchanged price target of A$0.60ps.

MME’s 4Q26 trading update was highlighted by: 1) the gross loan book reaching A$2bn (+9.5% on the sequential quarter); 2) originations of A$368m (+13% on the sequential quarter); 3) a return to normalised profitability over the second half of the fiscal year (normalised NPAT of +A$0.5m); and 4) asset quality remaining sound (net credit losses in 4Q26 of 2.4%). Our price target remains unchanged at A$0.21 and we maintain our Speculative Buy recommendation.

Alongside the appointment of a new CFO, CWY informed the market that it expects its underlying EBIT for FY26 to be approximately $470m (around the mid-point of its guidance range). This is a touch better than our previous forecast ($465m) and Visible Alpha consensus ($468m). We update our FY26 forecast to reflect this update, adding 1% to our FY26F EBIT, which leverages into a c.2% uplift to FY26F EPS. We assume the change has no impact on future years. Our 12-month target price remains $2.80/sh. BUY retained.

A strong finish to FY26, with Sierra Gorda, Cannington, both manganese units and the Brazilian operations all beating full-year production guidance. Cannington was the big swing factor, jumping 29% qoq on restored mining rates and higher grades. Group sales rose 15% qoq as rail access returned at Cannington and manganese/Mozal stockpiles were sold down, with a ~US$200m 2H26 working capital release flagged (vs a US$130m 1H build), a strong set-up for the August result alongside lower capex sunk. Partially offsetting, Sierra Gorda and manganese unit costs are running ~5-10% above guidance, and Australia Manganese FY27 guidance is under review. We maintain our ACCUMULATE rating and A$4.70 target price.

NGI has released its June 2026 (4Q26) AUM update. We saw this as another broadly solid quarter, marked by a +6% increase in group ownership-adjusted AUM despite volatile markets, and with continued robust quarterly net flows into Lighthouse (+US$690m). We revise our NGI FY26F/FY27F EPS by +1%/-2%/-4%, with higher AUM forecasts offset by slightly lower operating margin assumptions. Our price target is reduced to A$3.13 (previously A$3.39). With >20% upside remaining to our PT, we maintain our BUY recommendation.

We mark-to-market our FY26F estimates and make a minor upward adjustment to Pluto OPEX (field related costs). Post changes, our EBITDA estimates in FY26-27 are revised -2.5%/-1.1%. We have also rolled forward our model. Post changes our valuation-based target price is updated to A$33.40.

NUZ has completed enrolment in Regimen I of the HEALEY ALS Platform Trial for NUZ-001, with all 250 participants enrolled (recently increased from 160 patients). Topline efficacy and safety results have been brought forward again, now expected in late Q2 CY27 versus the prior 3Q CY27 guidance from our May note. No change to our SPECULATIVE BUY rating or A$0.20 target. This is a timeline update, not a valuation trigger.

We make updates to our forecasts ahead of the FY26 result in August. Net result is 1-2% downgrades to FY27-28F EPS. 12 month target price reduces 1% to $117.63. Sell retained, given stretched valuation metrics remain implied in the share price (c.26x PER, 3.7x PBV, 2.9% cash yield).

A good end to FY26 for BHP, with an operational result largely in line with consensus and a touch ahead of our estimates in places. Normally a source of volatility, BHP’s coal operations posted decent consensus beats at both BMA and NSWEC. FY27 guidance looks steady versus our existing estimates, although consensus does look high on group copper. Best-in-breed global diversified miner in what remains a healthy upcycle for resources. We maintain our HOLD rating and A$60.20 target price.

IMB has agreed to acquire ADT UK Residential from JCI for £180m (A$345m), funded by £155m debt and £25m scrip, at an attractive valuation of ~4x FY26 EBITDA. ADT UK brings a highly recurring (93%) UK residential base, lifting pro forma EBITDA to ~A$130m. Including the deal from 2H27, we forecast FY28 EBITDA +124%, NPATA +46% and EPSA +23%, with pro forma leverage of ~3x. The investment case will now hinge on the performance of the UK business, given its scale relative to ANZ. We lift our target price to A$1.20 (from A$1.00).