Research notes

NWL’s recent win with Morgan Stanley Wealth Management represents strong early validation of NWL’s iHIN offering and expansion into the broker segment of the market, which represents a net-flows tailwind into FY27-FY30. We see NWL’s incremental investment into FY27 as a doubling down on its strategy to drive further long-term scale benefits. We reiterate our Accumulate rating with a A$27.50 PT.

Despite a severe decline in 4Q26 China Label (CL) infant formula (IF) sales, A2M has slightly upgraded its FY26 NPAT guidance and materially upgraded cashflow. Encouragingly, the balance of the portfolio offset the CL IF decline. Importantly, IF supply and stock levels are now approaching more normal levels, but A2M will likely need to lift FY27 marketing spend to win back customers who switched to other brands while it was out of stock. We have made modest upgrades to FY26 and minor downgrades to FY27/28. Overall, A2M’s update was better than feared. While we have trimmed our forecasts, we expect strong earnings growth from FY27 onwards. We maintain our ACCUMULATE rating with a revised price target of A$8.30 (was A$8.70).

Silver Mines (ASX: SVL) is advancing the 100%-owned Bowdens Silver Project in the Central West region of NSW, Australia's largest undeveloped silver project and one of the largest primary silver development assets globally, underpinned by a 334Moz AgEq Mineral Resource and 71.7Moz Ag Ore Reserve. Our thesis rests on what we view as an increasingly compelling asymmetry in Bowdens’ risk-reward profile, underpinned by exceptional leverage to a strengthening silver price, a technically mature development plan and a more clearly defined permitting pathway. Despite this improving outlook, the stock continues to trade at a material discount to our assessed intrinsic value. We see the improving silver market, permitting progress and the approaching DFS collectively driving a period of meaningful value creation. We initiate coverage with a SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation and a target price of A$0.40 per share.

KSL has given an FY26 guidance update. FY26 earnings guidance is now for NPAT of PGK132m-PGK138m, which is up 15%-20% on the pcp (PGK114m), but comfortably below (-17%) our previous expectations. Overall, near-term earnings headwinds appear to have increased for KSL, albeit we acknowledge the card acquiring interoperability issue is a one-off. We lower our KSL FY26F/FY27F EPS estimates by 16%/7%, reflecting the various earnings headwinds flagged in the update along with more conservative assumptions for future years. As a result, our price target falls to A$1.48 (from A$1.57); however, with a total shareholder return (TSR) of >20%, we maintain our BUY call.

ASX has recently released its monthly trading activity report for June 2026. It was a mixed trading month overall for ASX, in our view, with higher cash markets activity (+54% volume on pcp), a downturn in raisings and stronger average daily futures/options contracts in June. Our FY27-FY28 EPS forecasts increased by ~+2% factoring in the recent trading activity. Our price target is increased to A$53.90 (from A$51.50). HOLD maintained.

Qantas's post-COVID balance sheet strengthening and cost discipline have positioned it to absorb the current fuel cost shock and consumer softness with genuine resilience. We forecast 2H26 PBT to be down on pcp as fuel and economic conditions bite, with FY27 forecast to deliver a moderate uplift. We view FY27 as a transition year for Qantas with higher growth expected from FY28 onwards as oil prices, refining margins and demand normalise. Structural growth drivers (fleet renewal, Project Sunrise, Loyalty scaling toward FY30 target) remain intact. We initiate coverage with an ACCUMULATE rating and an A$11.50ps price target.

Nike, Inc. is a global leader in athletic footwear, apparel and equipment with an estimated market share in 2023 of 39% (investing.com). Nike’s iconic ‘Swoosh’ logo is one of the most recognisable consumer brands in the world. Nike sells directly through over 1,000 retail stores and ecommerce platforms, as well as through wholesale channels. It employs a contract manufacturing model.

The headline read-through from IPART's draft report on proposed pricing changes for PXA is an anticipated reduction in revenue of A$70m (~20%) in year 1. We think a 20% hit to exchange revenue was much more punitive than consensus market expectations. Applying the cut in one year, rather than phasing it in over multiple years, adds to the disappointment. We make small changes to PXA FY26F/FY27F EPS (-3%) on a review of our assumptions, and lower FY28F EPS by 40% reflecting today's IPART announcement. Our price target is reduced to A$9.35 (from A$14.23). We Move PXA to HOLD. Proposed outcomes here are worse than expected, and this creates significant uncertainty around PXA’s future profit profile and its overall operating environment.

The wholly-owned Maronan Mineral Development Lease (MDL 2028) was approved in September 2025, after the Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) evaluated a 10-year underground mine life based on 22% of the total resource. The resource to JORC Code (2012) standards contains 122Moz silver, 2Mt lead, 271kt copper and 0.76Moz gold, with yearly production 5.4Moz silver equivalent (AgEq) at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of A$30.18/oz (~US$20/oz) AgEq. While the PEA is robust, MMA is yet to deliver a feasibility study, secure development finance, receive grant of a Mining Lease, and commence the path from construction to production. With 40-45% exposure to silver and 20-25% to lead, commodity prices are also the key to the level of profitability. We initiate coverage of MMA with an A$0.66 target price and SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation.

RMD has de-rated to ~16x forward earnings, its lowest valuation since the post-GFC period, despite consensus continuing to forecast double-digit EPS growth. GLP-1 therapies, positive Phase III data from Apnimed's oral OSA therapy, the prospect of Philips re-entering the US PAP market from 2027 and broader healthcare sector de-rating, have driven recent share price weakness. While these risks are real, current industry data and RMD’s operating performance provide limited evidence of a material deterioration in underlying demand. We make no changes to FY26-28 forecasts or our A$41.72 target price. BUY.