Research notes

TSO has released its much-anticipated maiden Ore Reserve of 1.3Moz (42.8Mt @ 0.93g/t Au) underpinning a minimum 13-year production life at an average grade of ~1.16g/t Au for the first 10-years with average production of ~106kozpa. The maiden Ore Reserve and Pre-Feasibility study (PFS) further reinforce our view that El Zorro is a technically robust and financeable development project in a preferred mining jurisdiction underpinned by a long-life, high margin operation with substantial growth upside through regional exploration and resource conversion. Following an analyst change, we maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a revised target price of A$2.64 per share.

Ramsay Santé's Capital Markets Day provided detail on its new “Connecting Care 2030” strategy ahead of the proposed demerger from RHC. The strategy targets 2-3% revenue growth and stable EBITDA margins in FY27, followed by c3% revenue growth and gradual margin improvement to FY29. While we view the strategy as credible, the outlook points to gradual rather than significant earnings growth, with tariff constraints remaining a key headwind. For RHC shareholders, the proposed in-specie distribution should simplify the group and provide direct ownership of Santé through ASX-tradeable CDIs. We retain our HOLD rating and A$49.39 price target.

DNL’s Investor Day articulated its growth strategy out to FY31 with an ambition to deliver A$800m of EBIT, materially above consensus expectations. Growth will be underpinned by leverage to attractive end markets, stronger premium product and technology adoption, productivity and operating leverage and expansion in growth markets including defence energetics with +US$1bn of US government-funded contracts already secured. Transformational acquisitions and energetics opportunities in Europe are in addition to its FY31 ambition. We have upgraded our forecasts with more material revisions in outer years (FY30-31) given the new energetics opportunities. DNL has rerated strongly on becoming a pure-play explosives company and its delivery of transformation benefits to date. We maintain a HOLD rating for now but would be buyers on any material pullback. Our new price target is A$4.42.

Following the FY26 results season we have reviewed our forecast assumptions for SGH’s 30% share in BPT, flowing through the lower earnings detailed in our FY26 BPT results note (Link). With our sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation tied to our BPT price target and the Crux valuation, an NPV of future cashflows, our SGH valuation declines modestly to $48/sh (previously $50/sh), whilst retaining our BUY recommendation.

JHX held its combined James Hardie and AZEK Investor Day in New York on 15 September 2026. The day centred on the “built to outperform, resilient by design” tagline, as management guided to 4% to 7% organic sale growth above market, while stressing the growth did not require a US housing recovery to work. The growth is meant to come from the AZEK combination, synergies running ahead of plan, and a leaner, lower-capex portfolio after the Europe sale. The positive company story and the growth trajectory are only partially offset by the tough macro, a 75bps rise in the 30-year mortgage rate over the past six months, and a peer multiple de-rate. On this basis we upgrade to an Accumulate rating, whilst moderating our target price to A$43.00 (from A$45.00).

Following the recent A$60m placement, MM8 is fully funded to deliver first production from the Cosmic Boy Concentrator (CBC) restart while simultaneously advancing a pipeline of highly prospective resource growth opportunities. We maintain our BUY rating and lift our price target to A$1.11 per share (previously A$0.99 per share).

We have updated our forecasts on The Lottery Corporation (TLC) given domestic lottery conditions have not improved since the FY26 result. We have marked our lottery tracker to market and now have tracked turnover running high single digits behind the prior comparative period. We cut FY27/28F Lotteries revenue by 2-3% and Lotteries EBITDA by 3-4%, with EPS down 6%/4%. The change is a lower jackpot assumption, partly offset by a lower jackpot share of turnover as base games and three price increases carry more of the mix. We upgrade TLC to ACCUMULATE from Hold on share price weakness, with a revised 12-month target price of $5.40 (previously $5.60). Following the September bond issue, our FY27 interest costs remain broadly unchanged with FY28 lifted nominally. At c.16.5x 12-month forward EV/EBITDA and a 3.3% fully franked yield, we think a poor sequence is in the price, and see upside from here if conditions improve.

Founded in Spain, Inditex (ITX.MAD) began in 1963 when AmancioOrtega opened a small dressmaking workshop. Twelve years later, the first Zara store was opened in Spain, signalling Ortega’s transition from maker to retailer. In 1985, Inditex brought all its companies together under the one banner, making it an official retail conglomerate. The brand continued to grow by expanding worldwide, adding new brands to the group and going public on the Madrid Stock Exchange. Now, the group features seven brands, operating over 5,800 stores in 213 markets worldwide.

Cash surprise drives dividend beat - Strong operational delivery and a year-end cash balance of A$485m supported a fully franked 30cps final dividend, materially ahead of MorgansF (20cps) and consensus (14cps). Operational performance exceeded expectations - NHC delivered record saleable coal production of 11.5Mt and coal sales of 11.8Mt, exceeding the top end of guidance and demonstrating the resilience of its operations despite disruptions throughout the year. Strong run, balanced view - NHC shares have rallied 60% YTD, supported by stronger coal prices and improving market sentiment. While we remain constructive on thermal coal fundamentals, the recent share price performance may provide an opportunity for investors to crystallise some gains. We maintain our HOLD rating with an increased price target of A$6.05 per share.

Three announcements in four days: a new CEO, an NIH-funded Expanded Access Program (EAP) for NUZ-001, and a partial redemption of the Obsidian convertible notes. The thesis is unchanged, but the risk profile is tidier heading into the topline readout in 2Q’CY27 which is the major near-term value inflection point. The CEO hire is a major point of interest. Dr Chris Bremer brings more than US$1bn of executed licensing deals, which reads to us as pre-positioning for a partnering outcome rather than a solo launch. We view this positively. We have re-outlined the risked weights and the de-risking path in full. No change to our SPECULATIVE BUY rating or A$0.20 target price.