Research notes

Earnings softer than expected, but guidance maintained - 1H26 EBITDA of US$174m missed MorgansF by 13% and consensus by 9%, with higher diesel costs, a stronger AUD and weather-related disruptions weighing on margins. Despite the softer result, FY26 guidance was reaffirmed and free cash flow remained positive. Dividend paused as flexibility takes priority - The key surprise was the absence of an interim dividend. SMR has elected to prioritise balance sheet flexibility and potential growth opportunities, despite ending the half with a modest net debt position of US$72m and continued positive free cash flow generation. Coal prices remain the key earnings lever - FOB cash costs rose to US$101/t and fuel costs remain a risk to FY26 margins. However, the recent ~US$20/t increase in hard coking coal prices has the potential to more than offset higher diesel costs if sustained, supporting earnings and cash flow into the second half. We maintain our HOLD rating with a reduced-price target of A$2.75ps (previously A$2.80ps)

GLF’s 1H26 result beat consensus expectations and saw management upgrade FY26 underlying EPS guidance to 30.0-31.0 cps. We shift our recommendation from BUY to ACCUMULATE following recent share price strength. Our thesis is unchanged and we remain enthused by the incoming settlement volume ramp up.

VNT's 1H26 was robust, with soft revenue more than offset by margin expansion. Revenue fell 5% YoY, while EBITDA margins expanded +113bps to deliver EBITDA growth of +8%. NPATA grew +7%. Earnings seemingly contained more than the usual number of moving parts, benefitting from PP&E sales and a large provision unwind, and weighed on by de/mobilisation, redundancy and extra fuel costs. Importantly, FY26 NPATA guidance of +7-10% was reaffirmed, though a tough comp for revenue in 2H26 means it is likely that margins will once again need to do the heavy lifting. Our FY26 NPATA forecast (+8% YoY) is largely unchanged and we increase FY27 NPATA by +3%. Target price rises to $5.95 (from $5.85).

LAU’s FY26 result was largely consistent with MorgF/consensus expectations, delivering on key strategic initiatives to diversify, grow and drive efficiencies across the business in what was a challenging macro environment. FY27 sees transport competition remaining high, however we see LAU’s recent Primary Connect win as an early opportunity to drive growth within the complementary secondary freight market which represents a material long-term growth avenue for the group. Our Underlying NPAT forecasts reduce by -11/-8% in FY27/FY28F reflecting a near-term step up in Capex/D&A associated with LAU’s secondary freight expansion, we also roll forward our DCF to FY27 which sees our price target of $0.80ps and ACCUMULATE rating unchanged.

NGI's FY26 underlying NPAT of US$75m (-19% on pcp) beat Morgans' estimate (US$72m) by 4%, though statutory NPAT of US$21m missed consensus (US$39m). Overall, we saw this result as broadly solid at the underlying level, though EBITDA (US$102m) came in slightly below consensus (-3%) on a softer NGI Strategic result. Business momentum appears reasonable, with inflows expected to continue into FY27 and the recently acquired Stable portfolio performing in line with expectations. We downgrade our NGI FY27F/FY28F adjusted NPAT forecasts by 4-5% and our PT falls to A$3.04. With >20% upside to our PT, we maintain our BUY call.

RPL has delivered another solid result, moderately above prior guidance (NPAT of “at least $90m” in July-26), resulting in Normalised NPAT increasing 108% (vs pcp) to $93.3m, supported by performance fees which increased 180% (vs pcp) to $119m. Importantly, the largely recurring management fees increased 14% (vs pcp), while the business trades on <10x PER. Phil King’s intended retirement is likely to continue weighing on the market, something we believe investors will overcome as the deep bench gains in profile (and presumably performance persists). On this basis, we retain our Buy recommendation with a $4.25/sh price target (previously $4.00).

REH’s FY26 result was slightly ahead of expectations and in line with management’s guidance range. While the outlook for the US was softer than anticipated, this was more than offset by a stronger outlook for ANZ supported by a solid pipeline of activity. We make modest upgrades of 1-2% to our FY27-29 group EBIT forecasts. Our target price increases to A$17.00 (from A$14.10), reflecting improving momentum in ANZ, the key driver of group earnings, and solid execution despite supply chain disruptions, product cost inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty. However, with the stock trading on 32x FY27F PE with a 1.2% yield, we continue to view it as fully valued.

DTL FY26 result was slightly above expectations, and consistent with international peer earnings trends, came with an EPS upgrade. After showing strong cost discipline in FY26, management have guided to >10% cost growth in FY27, as they invest to grow the services business. We retain our HOLD recommendation and lift our Target Price to $11.10 largely due to higher medium term growth forecasts.

FY26 result was strong, with adjusted EPS of US148.6c (+18%) at the top end of guidance, with adjusted EBIT of US$322m (+15% organic cc) above our forecast. Importantly, 2H adjusted sales growth accelerated to 9.2%, with volumes improving providing some evidence that volume recovery is emerging. While FY27 EPS guidance of US158-170c (6-14%) looks solid, the majority of gains comes from FX and buybacks rather than operating earnings, with sustainability of Healthcare growth and Industrial margins yet to be proven. We increase FY27-28 EPS forecasts up to 5.9%, with our DCF/SOTP price target increasing to A$37.85. HOLD.

Profit growth steals the show - EBITDA increased 66% YoY to $42.8m while NPAT rose more than 2,700% YoY to $15.2m, highlighting a transformational year for earnings despite only modest revenue growth. Margins drove the result, not fleet growth - Revenue increased just 7% YoY to $209.7m, yet earnings surged as improved rig utilisation, cost discipline and margin expansion unlocked significant operating leverage. Strong platform for FY27 - MSV delivered robust cash generation, declared its second dividend for the year, and expects operating rig numbers to increase through FY27, providing a pathway for further earnings growth. We maintain an ACCUMULATE rating with an unchanged price target of A$0.60ps.