Research notes

Given recent downgrades from other travel industry peers due to the conflict in the Middle East, FLT’s downgrade wasn’t a surprise. Given its balance sheet strength and depressed share price, a new up to A$200m share buyback was announced. We have made only minor changes to our forecasts given FLT’s guidance was broadly in line with our previous forecast. While a peace agreement and eased travel restrictions are positive, we think 1H27 will still be challenging. We forecast a strong recovery in 2H27. If it wasn’t for this conflict, FLT would have had a great year given its results for the first nine months were strong. We are buyers of FLT because when operating conditions ultimately improve, both its earnings and share price will be materially higher.

At SGH’s recent investor day management set out a medium-term strategy and framework to deliver 10% EPS/EBIT growth at a 15% ROCE, along with a near doubling of market cap. These ambitions are set against a track record of growing organically, while acquiring industrial businesses, improving operational performance and cash generation. SGH takes an entrepreneurial approach to leverage, gearing up to acquire what it perceives as ‘privileged assets’, with operational improvements then driving a quick deleverage. With first gas expected from Crux in FY28, the Ravenhall (DXS JV) underway, and Boral volumes muted, we believe the business can continue delivering double-digit earnings growth. The stock is trading at 16.8x PER (Consensus, NTM), in line with its historical 3-year average, but a c.4.5x PER (NTM) discount to the index (ASX 200 industrials). Given the baseline strategy is set, and potential levers for outperformance are clear (property, Crux, M&A), we rate SGH a BUY with a A$52.75/sh price target.

TCL’s update indicated traffic is running below expectations. TCL also announced its exit from the Montreal market via divestment, crystallising an equity value loss. DCF-based 12-month target price reset to A$12.50/sh (-5% vs previously), with forecast downgrades (we are more bearish on EBITDA, Free Cash and DPS growth than consensus) partly offset by discount rate adjustments. TCL’s recent share price strength (+9% since its February result and not far off all-time highs) is not reflective of the weaker traffic growth and higher interest rate environment that typically challenges TCL’s valuation. We recommend clients use the share price strength to take profits in overweight positions. Downgrade from HOLD to SELL.

A good company in a difficult position, dealing with multiple operational issues, albeit enjoying a nice bump in earnings resulting from the Middle East conflict. Operator LLOG advised of ongoing operational issues leading to a 41% downgrade to Who Dat production in 2026, an 11% downgrade at group level. Down 20% in two sessions, KAR is trading close to our revised target price. As a result, we lift our Trim rating to HOLD with a A$1.67 target price.

Incorporated in 1983, Adobe operates as a globally diversified software company. It operates through the following business segments: 1) Digital Media, which offers creative cloud services (including software such as Photoshop, Adobe Illustrator, Adobe Premiere Pro and Acrobat); 2) Digital Experience, which provides solutions including analytics, social marketing, media optimisation etc, and 3) Publishing and Advertising, which includes legacy products for eLearning and technical document publishing, web application development.

NGI on the 4th of May announced the acquisition of a portfolio of alternative asset manager interests from Stable Asset Management, alongside a new strategic partnership between the two firms. Following the completion of the entitlement offer and lifting of research restrictions we update our forecasts. We view the transaction as strategically attractive, though the projected double-digit EPS accretion in Year 1 assumes Stable sustains its strong near-term growth trajectory (EBITDA +35% - MorgansE). We revise our NGI FY26F EPS down -5%, reflecting management’s updated FY26F EBITDA guidance range (US$100m-US$104m), which came in below our prior forecast (US$106m). Our FY27F and FY28F EPS forecasts are lifted by 9%–13%, incorporating the earnings accretion from the Stable transaction. Our price target increases to A$3.42 (from A$2.97). We maintain our BUY rating with >20% upside to our price target.

Target price lifted to align with IFM’s revised takeover offer price of $5.10/sh. HOLD retained. A counter-bid is unlikely and IFM has said $5.10/sh is its maximum bid until offer close (less ALX distributions paid) and for the following 12 months after offer close (but is silent on adjusting the price for distributions paid in this period).

Founded in Spain, Inditex (ITX.MAD) began in 1963 when AmancioOrtega opened a small dressmaking workshop. Twelve years later, the first Zara store was opened in Spain, signalling Ortega’s transition from maker to retailer. In 1985, Inditex brought all its companies together under the one banner, making it an official retail conglomerate. The brand continued to grow by expanding worldwide, adding new brands to the group and going public on the Madrid Stock Exchange. Now, the group features seven brands, operating over 5,800 stores in 213 markets worldwide.

Frasers Group has made an unconditional on-market cash takeover offer for AX1 at $0.65 per share, which represents no premium to the closing share price. We see this offer as opportunistic, given the weakness in the share price over the last 12 months (down 64%), and see scope for Frasers to revise its bid higher. We have made no changes to our forecasts, but have increased our target price to $0.85 (from $0.75) applying a lower discretionary discount. We retain our BUY recommendation.

SUL's Investor Day contained limited surprises, with the group setting out FY31 network targets as it looks to organically grow share (via network growth ~3% pa, and category/service expansion) and optimise the business (ERP/supply chains). We left SUL's Investor Day encouraged by the clarity of the long-term organic growth strategy and the renewed management team tasked to execute. However, with valuation near our revised A$12.30ps price target, a softer consumer backdrop and lingering competitive pressures, we retain our Hold recommendation.