Research notes

NWL's 3Q26 net-flows of $3.96bn came in modestly ahead of expectations, however market volatility during the period eroded this solid performance to see 3Q26 FUA ending the quarter flat QoQ at A$125.8bn, (vs. Consensus A$129.8bn). Despite ongoing volatility and uncertainty tied to a US/Middle East conflict and a potential resolution, market momentum has recovered from peak pessimism in the March Quarter, with the ASX All Ordinaries +5.6% month-to-date in April’26, which will have seen FUA growth momentum improve post quarter end. Looking through this near-term volatility NWL remains on track deliver solid growth FY26F and well placed to capitalised on the long runway of opportunity ahead. We retain our ACCUMULATE rating, with a Price target of $29.00/sh.

Material CY26 downgrade. Xantho Extended deferral drives a sharp cut to CY26 zinc, gold and silver production guidance to ensure long-term mine reliability. Cash burn and liquidity now remains a key risk through CY26, with our investment case now contingent on remediation delivery, production flexibility and disciplined liquidity management. Downgrade to HOLD (previously BUY). While long-term upside remains should 29M effectively manage its balance sheet and operations through CY26, elevated uncertainty around near-term cash flow sees risk-reward more finely balanced, with a more cautious stance warranted.

EchoIQ’s (EIQ) EchoSolv platform is the world’s first FDA-cleared AI cardiac decision-support tool, institutionally validated at Beth Israel Deaconess (BIDMC/Harvard) and the Mayo Clinic, and trained on the world’s largest echocardiogram dataset (NEDA), creating a genuine clinical and data moat. A recently secured commercial sales agreement with the Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research (Mayo) (effective post-FDA clearance) positions EchoSolv HF for rapid deployment across Mayo Clinic hospitals and health system (19 sites) and 80+ hospitals in the network. We view this as a significant marker for clinical, regulatory, and commercial validation ahead of approval. We expect a positive outcome from the EchoSolv HF FDA 510(k), due imminently, which unlocks the large, structurally undiagnosed US cardiac market. Combined with attractive unit economics and clear patient and hospital benefits, we see a high probability of rapid US adoption and monetisation. We initiate coverage with a Speculative Buy rating and A$1.30 price target with potential upside to A$1.68 on approval/reimbursement, underpinned by near-term FDA clearance, reimbursement progression, and a credible pathway to US commercial scaling.

Gold production met expectations despite weather and maintenance impacts, with weaker copper and higher AISC driven by Ernest Henry disruptions. Strong 4Q26 expected to achieve FY26 guidance. Achieves net cash position with an updated capital management policy expected at its FY26 result in August. We upgrade to an ACCUMULATE (from HOLD) following recent weakness across the gold sector which we believe has uncovered value in a high-quality name, despite a strong share price reaction post the result.

Pleasingly, NUF’s 1H26 EBITDA guidance was slightly higher than expected and it has had a strong 1H. Importantly, its leverage guidance is materially better than expected. Initial outlook comments for the 2H26 were positive and a new A$50m cost out program has been announced. Given the appreciation in active ingredient and fish oil prices, NUF’s previous FY26 guidance could prove to be conservative. NUF is our key pick of the ag and chemical sector. The company is materially undervalued and we reiterate our BUY rating with a new price target of A$4.05.

Nike, Inc. is a global leader in athletic footwear, apparel and equipment with an estimated market share in 2023 of 39% (investing.com). Nike’s iconic ‘Swoosh’ logo is one of the most recognisable consumer brands in the world. Nike sells directly through over 1,000 retail stores and ecommerce platforms, as well as through wholesale channels. It employs a contract manufacturing model.

Roche Holding AG is a Swiss multinational healthcare company that operates worldwide under two divisions: Pharmaceuticals and Diagnostics. Roche Pharma is focused on finding new medicines and diagnostics that help patients and evolve the practice of medicine. It treats ~28m people with its medicines and has 32 products on the WHO list of essential medicines. Roche Diagnostics develops diagnostics tests, instruments and digital solutions. This enables the collection of data, generating accurate and high-quality information that is used to inform clinical diseases around infections.

Pfizer is a research based pharmaceutical company that focuses on drug discovery for human diseases. It has a global portfolio including medicines and vaccines, as well as many other health care products. Its top 10 medicines and vaccines include: Comirnaty, Paxlovid, Eliquis, Prevnar, Ibrance, Vyndaqel, Xeljanz, Xtandi, Enbrel and Inlyta. The company collaborates with health care providers, governments and local communities to support and expand access to reliable, affordable health care around the world. It has key franchises in cardiovascular, infectious diseases, inflammatory conditions and vaccines.

Novo Nordisk is a Danish multinational pharmaceutical company providing innovative treatment for five chronic diseases. Its products treat type 1 and 2 diabetes, obesity, haemophilia and growth disorders. It is most known for its diabetes treatments. Ozempic is its main revenue stream, which is for the treatment of adults with insufficiently controlled type 2 diabetes.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is an American based miner that is heavily focused on copper mining and produces gold and molybdenum as by-products to its copper production. FCX owns significant interests in three out of seven of the largest copper mines in the world by-production, the Grasberg Minerals district in Indonesia, the Morenci mine in Arizona, and the Cerro Verde mine in Peru. Indonesia is the largest source of FCX’s revenue. The Grasberg district in Indonesia is the second largest copper mine in the world and the largest gold mine, despite gold being produced as a by-product. Additionally, it is one of the lowest cost mines in the world due to the high grades of copper and gold produced. FCX operates seven open pit copper mines in North America and two copper mines in South America.