Research notes

3QFY26 activity continued to build on strong 1H performance, with accelerating US commercial momentum underpinning another revenue upgrade. Revenue grew 13% QoQ to US$23.8m (+34% YoY), supported by strong growth in implanted patients (+55% YoY), active physicians and utilisation, we believe highlighting increasing traction across the US footprint. We view the second consecutive guidance upgrade (now US$87m, +24% YoY) as evidence of improving visibility, with salesforce scaling and physician productivity continuing to trend ahead of expectations. We update FY26 forecasts in line with guidance, with our DCF-based target price lowered to A$2.94, mainly on FX and risk-free rate adjustments. SPECULATIVE BUY maintained.

3QFY26 activity highlights improving execution, with DETECT enrolment and site activation now gaining traction following a slow start. Since 1HFY26, EPI has expanded to 18 Tier-1 US centres and increased enrolled patients to 15 (from 3 in February), remaining on track to reach 25 this month. Cash burn was lower than expected, reflecting timing of site invoicing, while runway remains intact through CY28. We adjusted FY26-28 forecasts and lowered our DCF-based target price to A$2.23 mainly on risk-free rate adjustment. SPECULATIVE BUY rating maintained.

ARX has upgraded FY26 revenue and EBITDA guidance driven mainly by higher Myriad sales. We have revised our forecasts in line with guidance and increased our risk free rate (house view) which results in a small downgrade to our DCF valuation to A$0.77 (was $0.79). ARX will release its FY26 results on 26 May which will include FY27 guidance. The market will focus on revenue growth (MorgansF sit at 15%) and commentary around the continuing momentum with Myriad and SymphonyTM. We maintain our BUY recommendation with investor sentiment towards the name improving.

RMD’s 3Q result was solid, with double-digit revenue and earnings growth, further margin expansion and strong cash flow generation. Sleep and respiratory demand remains robust, with continued mask strength and ROW re-acceleration, while SaaS remains stable but subdued. Notably, GM expansion continues, underpinned via manufacturing, procurement and logistics efficiencies. And while macro uncertainties remain and investors seemingly focus on variability in US device growth while pondering if the Noctrix acquisition is merely a ‘plug’ to a slowing core, we view these concerns as myopic and manageable. We adjust FY26-28 forecasts modesty with our target price declining to A$41.72, mainly on house changes to FX and risk-free rate. BUY.

1H26 revenues were flat on an underlying basis, but cost decline and credit impairment charges were better than expected. Target price increased 4% to $31.85/sh, given 3-6% earnings upgrades and decision to recommence neutralising the DRP. Upgraded from SELL to TRIM, given potential TSR at current prices of c.-6%.

We attended BGA’s Investor Day. Despite the cost pressures associated with the conflict in the Middle East, BGA reiterated its FY26 EBITDA guidance. It also upgraded its FY28 EBITDA target and provided an FY31 EBITDA target for its next 5-year strategy. BGA’s targets underpin solid earnings growth profile across the forecast period, whilst maintaining a strong balance sheet. Our FY26 forecasts remain unchanged, while in FY27 and FY28, we have reduced NPAT for higher D&A associated with BGA’s capital growth projects. We maintain an Accumulate rating with a new price target of A$6.50. BGA remains well placed given its portfolio of iconic household brands, its focus on developing higher margin products with functional health benefits, its expansion into growth channels both domestically and overseas and network optimisation plans.

Weak 3Q26 result was driven by lower recoveries, though ramp-up is progressing well and cash flow turned positive. Outlook is improving with recoveries and spodumene prices lifting. Move to a TRIM with a A$2.20ps TP on valuation but the outlook remains positive.

MX1 posted its 3Q26 cashflow report noting product sales were modest while project work milestones remain broadly on track. The expectations of receiving the R&D tax incentive as a cash receipt together with an intention to monetise the security (non-core) assets will assist future liquidity. We have reduced our FY26 revenue forecast and therefore increased the net loss. Our FY27/28 forecasts remain unchanged. This, together with a higher risk-free rate (house view), sees our DCF valuation reduce to A$0.15 (was A$0.16). We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation.

COL’s 3Q26 sales update was slightly softer than expected, with another solid performance in Supermarkets offset by ongoing challenging conditions in Liquor. Supermarkets continues to gain market share from discounters and independents, with strong volume growth indicating the value proposition continues to resonate with customers. We reduce FY26-28F underlying EBIT by 0-1%, largely reflecting a more difficult outlook for Liquor. Despite the minor reduction in earnings, our target price increases to $24.60 (from $22.90), reflecting a higher valuation multiple. In our view, COL’s defensive earnings profile and strong execution warrant a premium amid macro uncertainty and Middle East geopolitical risks. In addition, the core Supermarkets division should benefit from increased at-home consumption and continued demand for own-brand products as customers become more value-conscious. ACCUMULATE rating maintained.

Copper production missed on lower Tritton grades but this was offset by a solid cost performance and strong cash flow (+72% qoq), materially strengthening the balance sheet and funding flexibility. Tritton is set up for a stronger 4Q26, while Constellation, Golden Plateau and the Peel acquisition underpin a longer-term production and mine life extension story. Maintain BUY rating with an unchanged A$0.70ps Target Price.