Research notes

H&M Hennes & Mauritz AB is a multinational fashion and design group conglomerate based in Vasteras, Sweden. Its 11 brands include H&M, COS, Weekday, Monki, H&M Home, & Other Stories, Arket, Afound, The Singular Society, Creator Studio and Sellpy. Across these brands, its main operating segment is affordable and sustainable wardrobe essentials, but it also offers fashion pieces and unique designer collaborations, accessories, stationery, homewares, shoes, bags and beauty products. H&M Group operates over 4,300 stores worldwide. 

We initiate coverage on AIC Mines (A1M) with a BUY rating and a 12-month target price of A$1.20ps. >The Eloise plant expansion and Jericho ramp-up take A1M to a dual-mine operation, almost doubling copper production to ~25ktpa by FY29. Its recent acquisition of the Mt Cuthbert project in the same region adds near-term exploration upside and a potential secondary standalone copper operation in the longer term. >We see A1M as one of the more compelling ways to gain leverage to a structurally tight copper market, funded from its own balance sheet.

Mixed revenue and cost trends, FY26 guidance achieved - while revenue and cost performance were mixed against our forecasts, AQZ delivered FY26 underlying PBT in line with our estimates and within its guided range. Deleveraging in FY27 - AQZ is targeting a reduction in leverage to ~2.1x net debt/underlying EBITDA by FY27 end, underpinned by the A$40m equity raising and planned asset sales of A$60-75m. We have upgraded to a SPECULATIVE BUY (previously HOLD) with an increased price target of A$0.85ps (previously A$0.75) and reduced our risk premium to 20%.

CGS is a high-quality, science-led provider of digital cognitive assessment and endpoint data quality services to the clinical trials industry. >Following a record FY26, CGS enters FY27 with record contracted future revenue of US$118.5m (+32% pcp), a diversifying pipeline, and a two-year technology program designed to expand margins as volumes grow without a corresponding increase in headcount. It is debt-free with US$34.7m in cash, generates high incremental margins on a largely fixed cost base, and returns capital through dividends while retaining capacity to reinvest. >The share price has re-rated strongly as the market has recognised the improving quality and predictability of earnings. The key question is whether CGS can sustain continued contract growth while converting scale into improved margins, an outcome we see as achievable. >We initiate coverage with a BUY rating and A$4.07 target price.

RMS has released its FY27 guidance and four-year outlook, outlining a clear pathway to ~600kozpa by FY30, driven by the expansion of the Mt Magnet processing hub and a growing contribution from higher-grade underground ore sources. The outlook reinforces our view that RMS is developing one of the highest quality growth profiles in the Australian gold sector. >FY27 guidance of 205-225koz at an AISC of A$2,150-2,350/oz was broadly in line with expectations, while the medium-term outlook delivered meaningful production upgrades from FY29 onward as higher-grade material from Dalgaranga, Cue and Galaxy displaced lower-grade feed in the mine plan. >We maintain our BUY rating and raise our price target to A$5.02ps.

If it wasn’t for two unplanned manufacturing disruptions, in our view, NUF would have beaten consensus expectations given Seed Technologies earnings have once again been upgraded due to higher Omega-3 prices. Importantly, NUF is still guiding towards strong earnings growth in FY26 and is on track to materially deleverage, with further improvement targeted in FY27. >Given NUF’s operating and financial leverage and high tax rate in FY26, a minor EBITDA revision results in a large downgrade to EPS. With further operational improvements targeted, another A$50m cost out program and more Omega-3 oil to sell at high prices, we have left our FY27/28 EBITDA forecasts unchanged, while EPS in these years increases given lower D&A post plant closures. >While a revision before an Investor Day next week is unfortunate, the turnaround plans at NUF remain on track and the stock is materially undervalued compared to peers. We reiterate our BUY rating with a new price target of A$4.24.

FID deferral looks increasingly justified - The decision to defer Tumas has coincided with a ~20% increase in long-term uranium prices and a more favourable contracting environment, strengthening the economics of project development. >Tumas is increasingly de-risked ahead of 4Q26 FID - Detailed engineering is nearing 80% completion, bulk earthworks are complete, key infrastructure agreements are in place, and financing work continues to advance. >A rare long-life uranium asset - With a 118.2Mlb U3O8 Mineral Resource, targeted production of 3.6Mlbpa and a mine life exceeding 30 years, Tumas has the potential to become a globally significant uranium operation. >We maintain a SPECULATIVE BUY rating with an A$1.95 price target (previously A$2.00).

HLO has agreed to acquire Crown Currency Exchange (CCE) for A$135m or 6.1x FY26 EBITDA with completion expected on 30 October 2026. >We have included CCE in our forecasts with modest EPS accretion from FY28. >In our view, HLO is materially undervalued and patient investors should be rewarded when a travel recovery eventuates post the Middle East conflict.

TSO has released its much-anticipated maiden Ore Reserve of 1.3Moz (42.8Mt @ 0.93g/t Au) underpinning a minimum 13-year production life at an average grade of ~1.16g/t Au for the first 10-years with average production of ~106kozpa. The maiden Ore Reserve and Pre-Feasibility study (PFS) further reinforce our view that El Zorro is a technically robust and financeable development project in a preferred mining jurisdiction underpinned by a long-life, high margin operation with substantial growth upside through regional exploration and resource conversion. Following an analyst change, we maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a revised target price of A$2.64 per share.

Ramsay Santé's Capital Markets Day provided detail on its new “Connecting Care 2030” strategy ahead of the proposed demerger from RHC. The strategy targets 2-3% revenue growth and stable EBITDA margins in FY27, followed by c3% revenue growth and gradual margin improvement to FY29. While we view the strategy as credible, the outlook points to gradual rather than significant earnings growth, with tariff constraints remaining a key headwind. For RHC shareholders, the proposed in-specie distribution should simplify the group and provide direct ownership of Santé through ASX-tradeable CDIs. We retain our HOLD rating and A$49.39 price target.