Research notes

MND’s idea of a “consolidation year” in FY27 was well ahead of the market’s previous expectations for +3% NPAT growth. The company is expecting 1H27 NPAT of $80-85m (+23-31% YoY), 25-33% ahead of 1H VA consensus ($64m), on revenue of ~$1.7bn (vs consensus $1.5bn), driven by strong E&C demand and improved mix. Clearly, the cycle waits for no-one, not even MND. Management’s guidance for a moderating 2H is not unusual in Maintenance but may turn out to be conservative for E&C, with recent major E&C contracts contributing for a full six months. We see the cycle strengthening into FY28 as mega-projects across gold, lithium, rare earths and possibly energy and iron ore ramp up. We upgrade FY27 EBITDA by +10% to $280m and NPAT by +11% to $159m, with outer-year earnings up +11-12%. Our target price rises to $38.50 (from $35.80). BUY maintained.

Light & Wonder (LNW) delivered a mixed 3Q26 result. Revenue missed both our estimates and consensus, and Adj-EBITDA landed shy of consensus, yet NPATA came in well ahead on lower stock-based compensation, interest and tax. Gaming and iGaming held up, but SciPlay deteriorated further and is now under new leadership with a reset that will run into FY27. The main positive for us was cash, with Adj. free cash flow (FCF) of US$181m funding US$156m of debt reduction, taking leverage down to 3.3x. FY26 guidance was narrowed to the lower end of the mid- to high-single-digit range. We lower our FY26-27F Adj-EBITDA estimates by 2.4% and 2.3%, respectively. We continue to see the stock as materially undervalued given its valuation, albeit with higher near-term volatility. In our view, the set-up into FY27 remains attractive, supported by installed base growth, Gaming content rollout and ongoing deleveraging. We maintain our Buy recommendation, with a target price of A$165 (previously A$174).

VNT has announced a restructuring and business simplification ($30m) which is expected to deliver >$60m of gross annualised cost savings by Dec-27. Challenging conditions in Telecommunications and Energy mean 2H26 revenue is now expected to be below the pcp, although productivity initiatives are substantially mitigating the earnings impact and VNT still expects +7-10% NPATA growth in FY26 (ex one-off costs). The key issues, in our view, are (1) whether VNT can return to revenue growth in FY27 and (2) if its strong margins are sustainable in the context of a more challenging Telecommunications landscape. We make minor forecast changes and our target price falls to $4.95 (from $5.95).

FY26 underlying EBIT and NPAT were at the mid-point of guidance. However, cashflow disappointed and gearing was higher than expected. >FY27 Explosives EBIT guidance (including ~A$35m of turnaround and maintenance impacts) was 4% below VA consensus, and higher interest and tax will further impact NPAT. Due to seasonality and turnarounds, guidance implies that 1H27 is down on the pcp, followed by solid growth in 2H27. We have downgraded our FY27/28 EBIT by 4.8%/0.9% and NPAT by 10.4%/5.0%. Importantly, DNL’s FY28 and FY31 EBIT ambitions remain unchanged. >We upgrade to an Accumulate rating (from Hold) following today's material share price weakness. Our price target falls to A$3.85 (was A$4.42).

Like its peers’ FY26 reporting, ANZ’s 2H26 earnings were flat (albeit with differences in mix) with the CET1 ratio deterioration arguably the largest surprise. >Critical for long term investors is the FY28-30 financial targets remain unchanged, offering significant earnings upside if achieved. >TRIM retained, given potential TSR of -c.4% at current prices. Target price $35.71.

MPK has released an interim Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) update at Ouarigue, part of its Ferké Gold Project, lifting contained gold by 57% to 2.08Moz at 1.87g/t Au. Growth was driven by a maiden 970koz underground Resource at 2.93g/t, and comes just six months after the project’s inaugural MRE. >The update confirms a larger, higher-grade system: the intrusion thickens and grades improve below the pit, and it remains open at depth, while the open pit is now 97% Measured & Indicated (M&I). Converting the underground Inferred ounces and optimising metallurgical recoveries are the key next steps. >Following an analyst change, we maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a revised price target of A$2.14 per share (previously A$2.48).

Diageo is a global leader in premium alcoholic beverages and the number one player in the international spirits category. The company owns nine of the world’s top 30 spirits brands and operates across multiple categories including Scotch whisky, vodka, rum, gin, tequila, beer, ready-to-drink (RTD) products and liqueurs. Its portfolio features iconic names such as Johnnie Walker, Crown Royal, Buchanan’s, Windsor and Bushmills whiskies, Smirnoff, Cîroc and Ketel One vodkas, Captain Morgan rum, Baileys liqueur, Don Julio tequila, Tanqueray gin and Guinness stout.

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories.

Starbucks Corporation is the largest retailer of specialty coffee in the world. Starbucks was founded in 1971 as a retailer of coffee beans and ground coffee, operating from a single store in Seattle’s Pike Place Market. After it was acquired by Howard Schultz in 1987, the business grew exponentially. Its global footprint now comprises over 38,000 stores in more than 80 markets, with Starbucks Reserve ® Roastery locations in Chicago, Milan, New York, Seattle, Shanghai and Tokyo.