Research notes

AIM’s 1H26 revenue was broadly inline with expectations while higher expenses once again resulted in underlying EBITDA coming in materially below our and consensus expectations. Management have now retracted their FY29 aspirational revenue and EBITDA targets and have refocussing the priorities. We reduce our forecasts and price target on lower earnings. We move to a Hold recommendation as we await traction on revised strategic priorities going forward.

TPG’s FY25 result was in line with guidance and consensus expectations, as was its underlying EBITDA and capex guidance for FY26. The highlight was continued strong mobile subscriber growth. For many years TPG/Vodafone has struggled to grow mobile market share. However, over the course of 1HCY25 and 2HCY25 it has ignited growth and outpaced peers in terms of mobile subscriber growth. Its network quality and brands are resonating with consumers and medium-term mobile growth could soon become a trend. We make non-material underlying forecast changes. Our target price lifts to $4.40 from $4.20 and we retain our Accumulate recommendation.

While COL’s 1H26 result was slightly softer than expected, execution remains strong in the core Supermarkets division. In line with commentary from Woolworths (WOW), COL said customers remain value conscious and the grocery market continues to be highly competitive. In Liquor, the market remains subdued with competitive intensity increasing, particularly in 2Q26 as Endeavour Group (EDV) stepped up its investment in pricing and promotions. We adjust FY26-28F underlying group EBIT by -2%/-2%/-2%. Despite the slight downgrade to earnings, our target price remains unchanged at $22.90 due to a roll-forward of our valuation to FY27 forecasts. With a 12-month forecast TSR of 15%, we upgrade our rating to ACCUMULATE (from HOLD). In our view, COL continues to perform well with key Supermarkets metrics such as customer scores, sales growth, cost discipline and store execution remaining solid. We hence view the recent share price pullback as an attractive entry point.

FY25 shows IME has quietly crossed the line from fixing the business to being a cleaner, cash-positive platform. Following a prolonged period of fixes, patches, and operational clean-up, IME appears to be finally shifting into a phase where the benefit of that groundwork has some room to compound. The combination of a cleaner revenue mix, leaner cost structure and a healthier balance sheet positions the company to convert incremental software growth and Aquila+ efficiencies into improving operating leverage. Staying positive here but note the cash buffer is better but not bulletproof. Upgrading target price to A$0.50 (from A$0.35) and retain our Speculative Buy recommendation.

Return to profitability with stronger Personal Injury (PI) recoveries and stable costs driving EBITDA to $21.1m and NPAT to $6.7m. Deep Class Action (CA) pipeline with multiple in-principle settlements; cashflow to normalise in 2H as ~$17.6m in delayed receipts are collected. Clear 2H execution focus on PI momentum, CA conversions and scaling tech initiatives to support further margin expansion.

It was a resilient 1H26 result for Airtasker, delivering ~13.5% group revenue growth to ~A$29m. Its established marketplaces saw EBITDA growth of ~11% to ~A$15m. Domestic metrics appear sound (e.g. uptick in booked tasks and brand salience), and we remain pleased with the momentum seen in ART’s offshore marketplace build-out (UK/US revenue +85% and 380% on the pcp respectively). We make minor adjustments to our topline forecasts (details below), we also include the additional $5m cash marketing costs into our 2H numbers along with the recent capital raise. Our price target is lowered to A$0.51. Buy maintained.

MX1’s 1H26 result demonstrated good progress across product sales and project revenue. MX1 posted a net loss of A$6.6m compared to our forecast loss of A$4.1m, with the difference relating to an R&D tax incentive which we had included as revenue. We are focused on several key milestones in 2H26 including the start of the head CT pilot and pivotal trial; additional Rover sales in US and SE Asia; and monetisation of the non-core security assets. We have removed the R&D tax incentive and corresponding costs from our forecasts from FY27. There is no change to our EPS forecasts or valuation. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation.

SOM’s 1H26 result places the company in a strong position to deliver at least the low end of its FY26 guidance, with clear upside potential. The half delivered solid double-digit revenue growth, meaningful operating leverage and significantly improved manufacturing efficiency, giving SOM a structurally strong base heading into 2H. With around half of revenue and the majority of EBITDA already achieved in 1H, the 2H requirements to meet both the low and high ends of guidance appear modest and achievable. Continued momentum across Europe and North America, combined with expanded capacity and improved turnaround times, provides a credible pathway for SOM to finish the year toward the upper end of its range if current trends persist. No change to valuation or positive outlook but note upside risk as 2H progresses.

Debut 1HFY26 results held no material surprises relative to IPO disclosures, and are more strategically important than financially complex. Since listing, EPI has secured a favourable Medicare reimbursement ruling, completed the first US Minder implant and signed nine Tier-1 US centres for DETECT, albeit enrolment remains early (3 patients to date). Cash runway is confirmed through DETECT completion and G1 development into CY28, with execution on enrolment cadence now the key swing factor for sentiment. We make no changes to our FY26-28 forecasts or A$2.33 DCF-based target price. SPECULATIVE BUY rating maintained.

A solid set of earnings and dividend ahead of estimates were not enough to offset new operational issues at Who Dat, Neon delay, moderated share buyback and CFO departure. Underlying EBITDAX of US$389m beat MorgansF (+3%) and consensus (+2%), with a larger U/L NPAT beat driven by lower tax and D&A. KAR flagged a Who Dat riser leak, shutting in 30% of field production. Neon FID has been delayed to 2027 at least. We maintain a HOLD rating, with KAR entering a challenging 1H26.