Research notes

If it wasn’t for two unplanned manufacturing disruptions, in our view, NUF would have beaten consensus expectations given Seed Technologies earnings have once again been upgraded due to higher Omega-3 prices. Importantly, NUF is still guiding towards strong earnings growth in FY26 and is on track to materially deleverage, with further improvement targeted in FY27. >Given NUF’s operating and financial leverage and high tax rate in FY26, a minor EBITDA revision results in a large downgrade to EPS. With further operational improvements targeted, another A$50m cost out program and more Omega-3 oil to sell at high prices, we have left our FY27/28 EBITDA forecasts unchanged, while EPS in these years increases given lower D&A post plant closures. >While a revision before an Investor Day next week is unfortunate, the turnaround plans at NUF remain on track and the stock is materially undervalued compared to peers. We reiterate our BUY rating with a new price target of A$4.24.

FID deferral looks increasingly justified - The decision to defer Tumas has coincided with a ~20% increase in long-term uranium prices and a more favourable contracting environment, strengthening the economics of project development. >Tumas is increasingly de-risked ahead of 4Q26 FID - Detailed engineering is nearing 80% completion, bulk earthworks are complete, key infrastructure agreements are in place, and financing work continues to advance. >A rare long-life uranium asset - With a 118.2Mlb U3O8 Mineral Resource, targeted production of 3.6Mlbpa and a mine life exceeding 30 years, Tumas has the potential to become a globally significant uranium operation. >We maintain a SPECULATIVE BUY rating with an A$1.95 price target (previously A$2.00).

HLO has agreed to acquire Crown Currency Exchange (CCE) for A$135m or 6.1x FY26 EBITDA with completion expected on 30 October 2026. >We have included CCE in our forecasts with modest EPS accretion from FY28. >In our view, HLO is materially undervalued and patient investors should be rewarded when a travel recovery eventuates post the Middle East conflict.

TSO has released its much-anticipated maiden Ore Reserve of 1.3Moz (42.8Mt @ 0.93g/t Au) underpinning a minimum 13-year production life at an average grade of ~1.16g/t Au for the first 10-years with average production of ~106kozpa. The maiden Ore Reserve and Pre-Feasibility study (PFS) further reinforce our view that El Zorro is a technically robust and financeable development project in a preferred mining jurisdiction underpinned by a long-life, high margin operation with substantial growth upside through regional exploration and resource conversion. Following an analyst change, we maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a revised target price of A$2.64 per share.

Ramsay Santé's Capital Markets Day provided detail on its new “Connecting Care 2030” strategy ahead of the proposed demerger from RHC. The strategy targets 2-3% revenue growth and stable EBITDA margins in FY27, followed by c3% revenue growth and gradual margin improvement to FY29. While we view the strategy as credible, the outlook points to gradual rather than significant earnings growth, with tariff constraints remaining a key headwind. For RHC shareholders, the proposed in-specie distribution should simplify the group and provide direct ownership of Santé through ASX-tradeable CDIs. We retain our HOLD rating and A$49.39 price target.

DNL’s Investor Day articulated its growth strategy out to FY31 with an ambition to deliver A$800m of EBIT, materially above consensus expectations. Growth will be underpinned by leverage to attractive end markets, stronger premium product and technology adoption, productivity and operating leverage and expansion in growth markets including defence energetics with +US$1bn of US government-funded contracts already secured. Transformational acquisitions and energetics opportunities in Europe are in addition to its FY31 ambition. We have upgraded our forecasts with more material revisions in outer years (FY30-31) given the new energetics opportunities. DNL has rerated strongly on becoming a pure-play explosives company and its delivery of transformation benefits to date. We maintain a HOLD rating for now but would be buyers on any material pullback. Our new price target is A$4.42.

Following the FY26 results season we have reviewed our forecast assumptions for SGH’s 30% share in BPT, flowing through the lower earnings detailed in our FY26 BPT results note (Link). With our sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation tied to our BPT price target and the Crux valuation, an NPV of future cashflows, our SGH valuation declines modestly to $48/sh (previously $50/sh), whilst retaining our BUY recommendation.

JHX held its combined James Hardie and AZEK Investor Day in New York on 15 September 2026. The day centred on the “built to outperform, resilient by design” tagline, as management guided to 4% to 7% organic sale growth above market, while stressing the growth did not require a US housing recovery to work. The growth is meant to come from the AZEK combination, synergies running ahead of plan, and a leaner, lower-capex portfolio after the Europe sale. The positive company story and the growth trajectory are only partially offset by the tough macro, a 75bps rise in the 30-year mortgage rate over the past six months, and a peer multiple de-rate. On this basis we upgrade to an Accumulate rating, whilst moderating our target price to A$43.00 (from A$45.00).

Following the recent A$60m placement, MM8 is fully funded to deliver first production from the Cosmic Boy Concentrator (CBC) restart while simultaneously advancing a pipeline of highly prospective resource growth opportunities. We maintain our BUY rating and lift our price target to A$1.11 per share (previously A$0.99 per share).

We have updated our forecasts on The Lottery Corporation (TLC) given domestic lottery conditions have not improved since the FY26 result. We have marked our lottery tracker to market and now have tracked turnover running high single digits behind the prior comparative period. We cut FY27/28F Lotteries revenue by 2-3% and Lotteries EBITDA by 3-4%, with EPS down 6%/4%. The change is a lower jackpot assumption, partly offset by a lower jackpot share of turnover as base games and three price increases carry more of the mix. We upgrade TLC to ACCUMULATE from Hold on share price weakness, with a revised 12-month target price of $5.40 (previously $5.60). Following the September bond issue, our FY27 interest costs remain broadly unchanged with FY28 lifted nominally. At c.16.5x 12-month forward EV/EBITDA and a 3.3% fully franked yield, we think a poor sequence is in the price, and see upside from here if conditions improve.