Research notes

VNT has announced a restructuring and business simplification ($30m) which is expected to deliver >$60m of gross annualised cost savings by Dec-27. Challenging conditions in Telecommunications and Energy mean 2H26 revenue is now expected to be below the pcp, although productivity initiatives are substantially mitigating the earnings impact and VNT still expects +7-10% NPATA growth in FY26 (ex one-off costs). The key issues, in our view, are (1) whether VNT can return to revenue growth in FY27 and (2) if its strong margins are sustainable in the context of a more challenging Telecommunications landscape. We make minor forecast changes and our target price falls to $4.95 (from $5.95).

FY26 underlying EBIT and NPAT were at the mid-point of guidance. However, cashflow disappointed and gearing was higher than expected. >FY27 Explosives EBIT guidance (including ~A$35m of turnaround and maintenance impacts) was 4% below VA consensus, and higher interest and tax will further impact NPAT. Due to seasonality and turnarounds, guidance implies that 1H27 is down on the pcp, followed by solid growth in 2H27. We have downgraded our FY27/28 EBIT by 4.8%/0.9% and NPAT by 10.4%/5.0%. Importantly, DNL’s FY28 and FY31 EBIT ambitions remain unchanged. >We upgrade to an Accumulate rating (from Hold) following today's material share price weakness. Our price target falls to A$3.85 (was A$4.42).

Like its peers’ FY26 reporting, ANZ’s 2H26 earnings were flat (albeit with differences in mix) with the CET1 ratio deterioration arguably the largest surprise. >Critical for long term investors is the FY28-30 financial targets remain unchanged, offering significant earnings upside if achieved. >TRIM retained, given potential TSR of -c.4% at current prices. Target price $35.71.

MPK has released an interim Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) update at Ouarigue, part of its Ferké Gold Project, lifting contained gold by 57% to 2.08Moz at 1.87g/t Au. Growth was driven by a maiden 970koz underground Resource at 2.93g/t, and comes just six months after the project’s inaugural MRE. >The update confirms a larger, higher-grade system: the intrusion thickens and grades improve below the pit, and it remains open at depth, while the open pit is now 97% Measured & Indicated (M&I). Converting the underground Inferred ounces and optimising metallurgical recoveries are the key next steps. >Following an analyst change, we maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a revised price target of A$2.14 per share (previously A$2.48).

Diageo is a global leader in premium alcoholic beverages and the number one player in the international spirits category. The company owns nine of the world’s top 30 spirits brands and operates across multiple categories including Scotch whisky, vodka, rum, gin, tequila, beer, ready-to-drink (RTD) products and liqueurs. Its portfolio features iconic names such as Johnnie Walker, Crown Royal, Buchanan’s, Windsor and Bushmills whiskies, Smirnoff, Cîroc and Ketel One vodkas, Captain Morgan rum, Baileys liqueur, Don Julio tequila, Tanqueray gin and Guinness stout.

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories.

Starbucks Corporation is the largest retailer of specialty coffee in the world. Starbucks was founded in 1971 as a retailer of coffee beans and ground coffee, operating from a single store in Seattle’s Pike Place Market. After it was acquired by Howard Schultz in 1987, the business grew exponentially. Its global footprint now comprises over 38,000 stores in more than 80 markets, with Starbucks Reserve ® Roastery locations in Chicago, Milan, New York, Seattle, Shanghai and Tokyo.

LAU’s AGM pointed to a softer start to FY27, with freight volumes now tracking lower than the pcp as rising interest rates and cost-of-living pressures weigh on consumer demand. This appears to be a step down from the flat volume outlook provided in August, although we note some volume contractions were expected (stemming from citrus/avocado seasonality). Positively, LAU’s secondary freight rollout is progressing to plan, while broader consolidation of providers in the market is driving heightened pipeline activity. >We trim our FY27F NPAT by ~4%, reflecting more conservative transport volumes, partly offset by higher fuel levy recoveries (which continue to capture diesel price rises post Jun’26). Our $0.80/sh price target and ACCUMULATE rating are unchanged.

JHX delivered a clean 2Q27 beat (vs MorgansF and Consensus). Adjusted (Adj.) net sales from continuing operations of US$1,428m (+24% yoy) was at the high end of guidance and 3.0% ahead of our forecast, Adj. EBITDA of US$455m beat us by 9.8% and consensus by 5.1% at a 31.8% margin (up 450bps and above the top of guidance), and Adj. EPS of US42c rose 68% yoy. The more notable was the outlook. JHX reaffirmed (rather than raised) its full-year guidance and lifted its free cash flow target to more than US$650m, so a strong 1H27 is absorbed by a more prudent 2H27 - the implied 2H27 points to Adj. EBITDA of about US$643m at a c.27.8% margin and net sales going backwards c.3% on the pcp. >Our forecasts remain largely unchanged, while our target price increases to A$45.75 (from A$43.00) on higher peer multiples. We maintain ACCUMULATE: JHX continues to grow well above its end markets, and a prudent guidance against a weak backdrop leaves room to continue beating expectations.

MQG delivered a record first-half NPAT of A$2,478m, up 50% on the pcp and 6% ahead of company-compiled consensus (A$2,338m). >In our view, this was a solid result, with CGM again the standout performer, more than offsetting a weaker Macquarie Capital outcome and a slight miss in BFS. However, the beat was also helped by a lower-than-normal tax rate (22.5% vs 31.4% in the pcp) and asset-sale gains, taking some shine off the headline figure. >We adjust our MQG FY27F/FY28F cash earnings by -1% to +4%, with higher CGM forecasts partly offset by weaker Macquarie Capital forecasts. We increase our PT to A$257.65 (from A$255.80). We maintain our HOLD, with <10% upside to our PT.