Research notes

LGI has acquired 42MW of solar farm assets for A$22m, funded via cash and debt. The acquisition is expected to contribute ~A$1.6m of EBITDA in FY27 (nine-month contribution) and A$2.1-4.0m pa at current pricing, subject to synergy realisation and DACS rollout. As a result, the group's medium-term target has been materially expanded to 125MW (from 80MW), comprising a diversified mix of biogas generation (26MW), solar (42MW) and batteries (57MW). We view the acquisition as logical and well timed amid a softer energy price backdrop. The balance sheet will remain conservative (<2x gearing) and the group continues to execute on its growth ambitions despite ongoing regulatory delays impacting its development pipeline. BUY maintained.

NUZ has announced positive feedback from its FDA Type C meeting confirming HEALEY Regimen I could serve as the sole registrational study for an NDA for NUZ-001 and support a traditional approval pathway. >This is consistent with our existing assumptions, as we already modelled a single Phase 3 pathway to NDA, so the feedback validates rather than adds to our numbers. >A clear positive for sentiment. No change to our risked (rNPV) valuation and target price of A$0.20 target price. SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation retained.

Deterra has announced the acquisition of a 1.75% NSR royalty on ~84% of Ivanhoe Electric’s Santa Cruz copper project for US$74.15m cash. >As part of the deal reduced to 1.68% NSR for first 6 years of production, and 1.57% thereafter, with a current 24-year mine life. >We value the Santa Cruz royalty at risked A$110m, or A$0.21/share, and expect it to add A$17-21mpa to EBITDA by FY30F (~7% earnings accretive). >A formidable inflation hedge with upside leverage to metal prices, we maintain a BUY rating with a A$4.75 Target Price (was A$4.85).

TCL has increased its exposure to the Sydney market via acquisition of additional equity stakes in key tollroads. While we view positively the deployment by TCL of capital into markets and assets that it knows well, we struggle to see the cashflow benefit for investors at the acquisition price paid particularly in the context of the higher rate environment. Target price -50 cps to $12.03/s as a result of the forecast update and adjusting our DCF discount rate higher to part-risk for the rise in risk-free rates. We retain a TRIM rating at current prices, given potential TSR of -3%.

MEK has completed a two-tranche A$42.4m institutional placement to fund the second Mt Holland cash payment (A$10m), Turnberry UG development, exploration and working capital. The raise follows an underwhelming Sep-Q ramp-up, with indicative production of 7.0-7.5koz materially below our forecast and cash outflows higher than expected. We maintain our BUY rating with a revised price target of A$0.17 per share.

With G2E in Las Vegas this week, and ahead of its FY26 result on 12 November, we have made minor revisions to our earnings forecasts. We lower our FY26-27 fee per day and North American outright unit forecasts and our FY26 Product Madness bookings. We also lift our AUD/USD assumption and increase our buy-back assumptions. Our NPATA forecasts fall by c.1% across FY26-27F. EPSA is broadly unchanged in FY26 and up c.1% in FY27, reflecting higher buy-backs. Our 12-month target price decreases to A$69.00 (prev. A$70.00). We maintain our Accumulate recommendation.

TNC continues to build value across both hubs. At Mt Oxide, drilling has extended Aquila’s high-grade mineralisation to ~300m depth, while Chidna adds northern strike potential. At Cloncurry, an ~18% CCP resource uplift amid a backdrop of accelerating regional M&A reinforces the strategic value of TNC’s assets. >Following an analyst change, we maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a revised target price of A$1.31 per share.

LTR has approved the A$389m Kathleen Valley Expansion, targeting ~780ktpa of spodumene concentrate from FY30, with steady-state production in line with our expectations but unit costs above MorgansF and consensus. Our target price falls to A$1.10ps (from A$1.40ps) on a slower FY28-FY29 ramp-up and higher near-term capex and costs, with falling lithium prices and execution now the key risks. We maintain our ACCUMULATE rating with a A$1.10ps target price.

IMR’s share price has fallen over 20% since it entered the ASX300 index in early September. Over that period there have been two important announcements, and we expect material newsflow over the next three to six months, which in our view should see the share price back above A$2.00. >Catalysts to come – NorthStar orders, clinical data submit, Europe/ME sales, FDA approval, and VT trial update. >We have made no changes to forecasts or TP. SPECULATIVE BUY.

Several important catalysts are approaching which could be positive for the share price. Of most interest to investors is the full recruitment of the pivotal study for Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) which is expected to be achieved by end of CY26. Management expects to submit to the FDA in 1QCY27, with approval in 2QCY27. BB1’s technology has broad applications across additional indications (adult autism, dementia detection, ketamine-based pharma intervention) and preliminary data is expected to read out over the next 12 months adding to the cadence of news flow. Positively, BB1 has appointed the former Clinical Lead for Mental Health at Apple to the board as a Non-Executive Director. We have made no changes to forecasts, and our target price remains unchanged at A$1.76. SPECULATIVE BUY.