Your personal investing strategy

At Morgans, we take a personalised approach to help you achieve your investment goals. We understand that investing is not a one-size-fits-all endeavour, and we are here to tailor our services and products to your specific needs and preferences.

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Buy and Sell Shares
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)
ESG Investing
IPOs and Share Offers
Fixed Interest
Options and Warrants
Margin Lending

Our investment philosophy

Getting started is an important step, and we want to ensure that we have a deep understanding of where you stand when it comes to investing. We consider four foundational aspects.

Income Investing

Income investing

Income investing is a strategy focused on generating a reliable and steady stream of passive income. Investors pursuing this style often choose assets such as dividend-paying stocks, real estate investment trusts (REITs), and high-yield bonds. The primary goal is to accumulate regular cash flow from these investments, providing a consistent source of income. This approach appeals to those seeking financial stability and regular returns, making it a popular choice for retirees or anyone looking to supplement their income through strategic investment choices.

Capital growth

Capital growth investing is a strategy centered on increasing the value of an investment portfolio over time. Investors pursuing this style typically allocate funds to assets with the potential for substantial appreciation in value, such as growth stocks or emerging market opportunities. The focus is on long-term capital appreciation, with the goal of building wealth and achieving significant returns.

While capital growth investing involves a higher level of risk, it appeals to those with a longer investment horizon and a willingness to withstand market fluctuations in pursuit of higher overall portfolio value over time.

Capital security

Capital security investing prioritises the preservation of invested capital and minimising the risk of loss. Investors adopting this strategy tend to allocate funds to low-risk assets such as government bonds, high-quality corporate bonds, or other stable securities. The primary objective is to safeguard the initial investment, even if it means accepting lower returns compared to riskier investments.

Capital security is particularly attractive to conservative investors or those nearing retirement who prioritise protecting their wealth and are more risk-averse. This approach provides a sense of financial stability and security, albeit with potentially lower returns compared to higher-risk investment strategies.

Risk / return

Risk/return investing involves a balanced approach to investment strategy, carefully weighing potential risks against anticipated returns. Investors pursuing this style seek to enhance their portfolio performance by selecting a mix of assets that align with their risk tolerance and financial goals. This strategy acknowledges that higher potential returns often come with increased risk and vice versa.

Balancing the risk-return profile allows investors to tailor their portfolios to match their individual preferences, whether they are comfortable with more volatility in pursuit of higher returns or prefer a more conservative approach with lower risk and stable, albeit potentially more modest, returns. This versatile strategy enables investors to align their portfolios with their specific risk preferences and financial objectives.

Our Services

Buy & Sell Shares
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Gain access to shares listed on the ASX and selected global exchanges as well as personalised investment advice. Whether you're an experienced professional investor or a novice investor finding your way in the market, Morgans Port Macquarie can help. As a full service stockbroker, we pride ourselves on offering smart, personalised investment advice that is tailored to your investment style and objectives.

Our advisers are supported by an award-winning research team, as well as a leading corporate finance team that regularly provides clients with exclusive investment opportunities.

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Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's)
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Morgans offers a comprehensive wealth management approach, focusing on defining your investment goals, tailoring financial solutions, and leveraging excess cashflow to grow your assets and wealth. With retirement planning as a key component, our experienced advisers guide you through the wealth management planning process, implementing strategies that encompass tax savings, risk minimisation, diversification, and asset accumulation for long-term financial security.

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ESG Investing
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Our Wealth+ managed portfolio service streamlines your investment journey by taking care of comprehensive investment administration tasks. With a dedicated point of contact, proactive portfolio management, transparent reporting, and tax assistance, Wealth+ simplifies the complexity of portfolio administration, allowing you to maintain control over your investment decisions while benefiting from professional administration.

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IPO's & Share Offers
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Morgans provides an extensive range of fixed interest products and services; including income-focused share portfolios and cash management accounts with attractive interest rates, term deposits, foreign currency term deposits, flexible/structured term deposits, listed debt and hybrid investments, as well as government and corporate bonds.

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Fixed Interest
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We recognise the significance of constructing investment portfolios that not only maximise returns but also embrace ethical principles and ESG considerations. Our knowledgeable advisers can guide you in evaluating your investment portfolio from an ethical perspective, aligning your investments with your personal values across ESG issues.

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Options and Warrants
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We recognise the significance of constructing investment portfolios that not only maximise returns but also embrace ethical principles and ESG considerations. Our knowledgeable advisers can guide you in evaluating your investment portfolio from an ethical perspective, aligning your investments with your personal values across ESG issues.

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Margin Lending
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We recognise the significance of constructing investment portfolios that not only maximise returns but also embrace ethical principles and ESG considerations. Our knowledgeable advisers can guide you in evaluating your investment portfolio from an ethical perspective, aligning your investments with your personal values across ESG issues.

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News & Insights

In a lively presentation to the Economic Club of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee highlighted tariffs as a minor stagflation risk but emphasized strong U.S. GDP growth of around 2.6%, suggesting a resilient economy and potential for a soft landing.

I’d like to discuss a presentation delivered by Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, to the Economic Club of New York on 10 April. Austan Goolsbee, gave a remarkably animated talk about tariffs and their impact on the U.S. economy.

Goolsbee is a current member of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, alongside representatives from Washington, D.C., and Fed bank Presidents from Chicago, Boston, St. Louis, and Kansas City.  

Having previously served as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in the Obama White House, Goolsbee’s presentation style in New York was notably different from his more reserved demeanour I had previously seen when I had attended a talk of his in Chicago.

During his hour-long, fast-paced talk, Goolsbee addressed the economic implications of tariffs. He recounted an interview where he argued that raising interest rates was not the appropriate response to tariffs, a stance that led some to label him a “Dove.” He humorously dismissed the bird analogy, instead likening himself to a “Data Dog,” tasked with sniffing out the data to guide decision-making.

Goolsbee explained that tariffs typically drive inflation higher, which might ordinarily prompt rate hikes. However, they also tend to reduce economic growth, suggesting a need to cut rates. This creates a dilemma where rates might not need adjustment at all. He described tariffs as a “stagflation event” but emphasised that their impact is minor compared to the severe stagflation of the 1970s.

When asked if the U.S. was heading towards a recession, Goolsbee said that the "hard data" was surprisingly strong.

Let us now look at our model of US GDP based on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. This Index   incorporates 85 variables across production, sales, employment, and personal consumption.  In the final quarter of last year, this index indicated the GDP growth was slightly below the long-term average, suggesting a US GDP growth rate of 1.9% to 2%.

However, data from the first quarter of this year showed stronger growth, just fractionally below the long-term trend.

Using Our Chicago Fed model, we find that US GDP growth had risen from about 2% growth to a growth rate of around 2.6%, indicating a robust U.S. economy far from recessionary conditions.

Model of US GDP

We think that   increased government revenue from Tariffs might temper domestic demand, potentially guiding growth down towards 1.9% or 2% by year’s end. Despite concerns about tariffs triggering a downturn, this highlights the economy’s resilience and suggests   a “soft landing,” which could allow interest rates to ease, weaken the U.S. dollar, and boost demand for equities.

We will provide monthly reviews of these indicators. We note that, for now, the outlook for the U.S. economy remains very positive.

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This discussion simplifies the US business cycle, highlighting how tariffs are projected to lower growth to 1.8% in 2025, reduce the budget deficit, and foster an extended soft landing, boosting equities and commodities through 2027.


I want to discuss a simplified explanation of the US business cycle, prompted by the International Monetary Fund's forecast released yesterday, which, for the first time, assessed the impact of tariffs on the US economy. Unlike last year's 2.8% growth, the IMF predicts a drop to 1.8% in 2025. This is slightly below my forecast of 1.9 to 2%. They further anticipate growth will decline to 1.7% in 2026, lower than my previous estimate of 2%. Growth then returns to 2% by 2027.

This suggests that increased tariffs will soften demand, but the mechanism is intriguing. Tariffs are expected to reduce the US budget deficit from about 7% of GDP to around 5%, stabilizing government debt, though more spending cuts are needed.  This reduction in US deficit reduces US GDP growth. This leads to a slow down.

The revenue from tariffs is clearly beneficial for the US budget deficit, but the outlook for the US economy now points to an extended soft landing. This is the best environment for equities and commodities over a two-year view. With below-trend growth this year and even softer growth next year, interest rates are expected to fall, leading the fed funds rate to drift downward in response to slower growth trends. Additionally, the US dollar is likely to weaken as the Fed funds rate declines, following a traditional US trade cycle model: falling interest rates lead to a weaker currency, which in turn boosts commodity prices.

This is particularly significant because the US is a major exporter of agricultural commodities, has rebuilt its oil industry, and is exporting LNG gas. The rising value of these commodities stimulates the economy, boosting corporate profits and setting the stage for the next surge in growth in a couple of years.

This outlook includes weakening US interest rates and rising commodity prices, continuing through the end of next year. This will be combined with corporate tax cuts, likely to be passed in a major bill in July, reducing US corporate taxes from 21% to 15%.  This outlook is very positive for both commodities and equities. Our model of commodity prices shows an upward movement, driven by an increase in international liquidity within the international monetary system.

With US dollar debt as the largest component in International reserves , as US interest rates fall, the creation of US government debt accelerates, increasing demand for commodities.  The recent down cycle in commodities is now transitioning to an extended upcycle through 2026 and 2027, fueled by this increased liquidity due to weaker interest rates.

Furthermore, the rate of growth in international reserves is accelerating, having reached a long-term average of about 7% and soon expected to rise to around 9%. Remarkably, the tariffs are generating a weaker US dollar, which drives the upward movement in commodity prices. This improvement in commodity prices is expected to last for at least the next two years, and potentially up to four years.

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Michael Knox dives into the robust U.S. economy, the effects of proposed tariffs on inflation and Federal Reserve decisions, and how tariff funds and corporate tax reductions could boost job growth and stock market performance in 2026, though markets may stabilise in the short term.


Today I’ll be covering a range of topics, including the U.S. economy, tariffs and their impact on inflation, and what this means for the Federal Reserve.

I’ll also discuss how the funds raised through tariffs and employment influence job creation and why this is crucial for stock market performance over the next year.

Contrary to some concerns, the U.S. economy is not heading into a recession. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has highlighted the strong employment figures for March, with 228,000 new jobs created. However, a closer look reveals that nearly all of these jobs were in the services sector, particularly in private service providing (197,000 jobs), healthcare (77,000 jobs), and leisure and hospitality (43,000 jobs), with very few jobs  in manufacturing.

This underscores the need for a Reciprocal Trade Act to revitalise U.S. manufacturing.

On the tariff front, Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, announced that the U.S. is negotiating with 130 countries to establish individual tariff agreements. Most of these countries will face a 10% tariff, though exemptions are being considered for American firms operating in China, particularly those exporting smartphones, computers, and computer chips to the U.S.

With this 10% tariff applied across these nations, it’s worth examining its effect on U.S. inflation. The latest core CPI inflation rate in the U.S. was 2.8%, which is close to the target of 2.5%. However, as imports account for roughly 13% of domestic demand, a 10% tariff could increase inflation by 1.3%, pushing the total inflation  to 4.1%.

Using my Fed funds rate model, I factored in this higher inflation rate. The current Fed funds rate stands at 435 basis points, and with the next meeting scheduled for 5–6 May. My model suggests an equilibrium inflation rate of around 4.07%. This gives the Fed room to cut rates, not by three cuts as speculated last week, but by one, equating to a 25-basis-point reduction. Last week, I estimated the fair value for the S&P 500 at 5,324 and the ASX 200 at 5767 for the year. Markets have since approached these levels, but unlike the past few years, where markets surged and kept climbing, I believe they will now stabilise closer to fair value. The corporate bond market is less bubbly than before, which supports this more sombre outlook.

Scott Bessent also noted that the previous stock market run-up was driven by the ‘Magnificent Seven’ tech stocks. This was fuelled by America’s dominance in artificial intelligence. However, as China has demonstrated its own AI capabilities, the market then peaked and is now likely to align more closely with global fair value.    

Looking ahead, Peter Navarro, Senior Counsel for Trade and Manufacturing in the White House, provided key insights yesterday. He estimates that the 10% revenue tariff will generate approximately $US650 billion, which will significantly boost corporate tax revenue. This cash flow will support a major bill, expected to pass mid-year, that will lower U.S. corporate taxes from 21% to 15%. This reduction will substantially increase after-tax earnings, even without changes to current operations, and lead to a sustained rise in operating earnings per share in the U.S. market next year.

While this bodes well for 2026, the market will likely need to consolidate in the near term. It will need to do more at the current level before experiencing a significant run-up, particularly next year.

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