Companies Under Coverage

Explore the stocks under coverage of our award-winning in-house research team.

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Companies under coverage

Australia

Consumer and Industrials
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ALS Ltd (ALQ)

APA Group Stapled (APA)

ARB Corporation (ARB)

Accent Group Ltd (AX1)

Acrow Limited (ACF)

Adairs Limited (ADH)

Adrad Hldings (AHL)

Alliance Aviation (AQZ)

Ama Group Limited (AMA)

Amcor Plc Cdi 1:1 (AMC)

Amotiv (AOV)

Articore Group Ltd (ATG)

Atlas Arteria Sforus (ALX)

Aurizon Holdings Ltd (AZJ)

Avada Group Limited (AVD)

Baby Bunting Grp Ltd (BBN)

Bapcor Limited (BAP)

Beacon Lighting Grp (BLX)

Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)

Brambles Limited (BXB)

Breville Group Ltd (BRG)

Brickworks Limited (BKW)

Camplifyholdings (CHL)

Civmec Limited (CVL)

Cleanaway Waste Ltd (CWY)

Coles Group (COL)

Collins Foods Ltd (CKF)

Corp Travel Limited (CTD)

DGL Group Limited (DGL)

Dalrymple Bay Stapled (DBI)

Domino Pizza Enterpr (DMP)

Eagers Automotive (APE)

Elders Limited (ELD)

Endeavour (EDV)

Experience Co Ltd (EXP)

Flight Centre Travel (FLT)

Graincorp Limited (GNC)

Guzman Y Gomez Ltd (GYG)

Hancock & Gore Ltd (HNG)

Helloworld Travl Ltd (HLO)

Idp Education Ltd (IEL)

Inghams Group (ING)

Iph Limited (IPH)

JB Hi-Fi Limited (JBH)

James Hardie Indust Cdi 1:1 (JHX)

Johns Lyng Group (JLG)

Kelly Partners Group (KPG)

LGI Limited (LGI)

Lindsay Australia (LAU)

Lovisa Holdings Ltd (LOV)

MAAS Group Holdings (MGH)

Monadelphous Group (MND)

Motorcycle Holdings (MTO)

Myer Holdings Ltd (MYR)

Nrw Holdings Limited (NWH)

Ntaw Holdings Ltd (NTD)

Nufarm Limited (NUF)

Orica Limited (ORI)

Orora Limited (ORA)

PWR Holdings Limited (PWH)

Peoplein Limited (PPE)

Peter Warren (PWR)

Qantas Airways (QAN)

Reece Limited (REH)

Regal Partners Ltd (RPL)

Reliance Worldwide (RWC)

Shine Justice Ltd (SHJ)

Silk Logistics (SLH)

Sks Tech Group Ltd (SKS)

Smartgroup

Soul Pattinson (Wh) (SOL)

Srg Global Ltd (SRG)

Step One Limited (STP)

Super Ret Rep Ltd (SUL)

Tasmea Limited (TEA)

The A2 Milk Company Nz (A2M)

The Reject Shop (TRS)

Tourismholdings Nzx (THL)

Transurban Group Stapled (TCL)

Treasury Wine Estate (TWE)

Universal Store (UNI)

Veem Ltd (VEE)

Ventiaservicesgroup (VNT)

Viva Leisure Limited (VVA)

Vulcan Steel (VSL)

Wagners Hld Company (WGN)

Web Travel Group Ltd (WEB)

Webjet Group Limited (WJL)

Wesfarmers Limited (WES)

Woolworths Group Ltd (WOW)

Worley Limited (WOR)

Financials and Real Assets
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ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ)

ASX Limited (ASX)

Bank Of Queensland (BOQ)

COG Financial Services (COG)

Cedar Woods Prop (CWP)

Centuria I Reit Ord Unit (CIP)

Centuria Office Reit Ord Unit (COF)

Chalice Mining Ltd (CHN)

Challenger Limited (CGF)

Clearview Wealth Ltd (CVW)

Commonwealth Bank (CBA)

Computershare Ltd (CPU)

Credit Corp Group (CCP)

Cromwell Prop Stapled (CMW)

Dexus Conv Ret Reit Stapled (DXC)

Dexus Industria Reit Stapled (DXI)

Earlypay Ltd (EPY)

Eureka Group Ltd (EGH)

Findi Limited (FND)

GQG Partners (GQG)

Garda Prpty Group Stapled (GDF)

Generation Dev Group (GDG)

Goodman Group (GMG)

HMC Capital Limited (HMC)

HUB24 Ltd (HUB)

Healthco Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)

Homeco Daily Needs Units (HDN)

Hotel Property Stapled (HPI)

Income Asset (IAM)

Insurance Australia (IAG)

Judo Cap Holdings (JDO)

Kina Securities Ltd (KSL)

MA Financial Group (MAF)

Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG)

Magellan Fin Grp Ltd (MFG)

Medibank Private Ltd (MPL)

Moneyme Limited (MME)

NIB Holdings Limited (NHF)

National Aust Bank (NAB)

National Storage Stapled (NSR)

Netwealth Group (NWL)

Pexagroup (PXA)

Pinnacle Investment (PNI)

QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

Qualitas Limited (QAL)

Solvar Limited (SVR)

Suncorp Group Ltd (SUN)

Tyro Payments (TYR)

Waypoint Reit Stapled (WPR)

Westpac Banking Corp (WBC)

Healthcare
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Ansell Limited (ANN)

Aroa Biosurgery (ARX)

Audeara (AUA)

Avita Medical Cdi 5:1 (AVH)

CSL Limited (CSL)

Clarity Pharma (CU6)

Clever Culture (CC5)

Clinuvel Pharmaceut (CUV)

Cochlear Limited (COH)

Control Bionics (CBL)

Dimerix Ltd (DXB)

EBR Systems (EBR)

Ebos Group Ltd Nz (EBO)

Emvision Medical (EMV)

Healius (HLS)

Imexhs Limited (IME)

Impedimed Limited (IPD)

Imricor Med Sys Cdi Forus (IMR)

Mach7 Tech Limited (M7T)

Medadvisor Limited (MDR)

Micro-X Limited (MX1)

Microba Life Sciences (MAP)

Monash IVF Group Ltd (MVF)

Nanosonics Limited (NAN)

Neuren Pharmaceut Nz (NEU)

Neurizon Therapeutic (NUZ)

Opthea Limited (OPT)

Polynovo Limited (PNV)

Pro Medicus Limited (PME)

Proteomics Int Lab (PIQ)

Ramsay Health Care (RHC)

Resmed Inc Cdi 10:1 (RMD)

Sigma Health Ltd (SIG)

Sonic Healthcare (SHL)

Syntara Limited (SNT)

Resources
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Adriatic Metals Cdi 1:1 (ADT)

Ausgold Limited (AUC)

BHP Group Limited (BHP)

Beach Energy Limited (BPT)

Bowen Coal Limited (BCB)

Catalyst Metals (CYL)

Comet Ridge Limited (COI)

Coronado Global Res Cdi 10:1 (CRN)

Deep Yellow Limited (DYL)

EQ Resources (EQR)

Elementos Limited (ELT)

Empire Energy Ltd (EEG)

Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN)

Fortescue Ltd (FMG)

Gold Hydrogen (GHY)

Imdex Limited (IMD)

KGL Resources Ltd (KGL)

Karoon Energy Ltd (KAR)

Liontown Resources (LTR)

MLG Oz Ltd (MLG)

Matrix Composites & Engineering (MCE)

Medallion Metals (MM8)

Meeka Metals Limited (MEK)

Mineral Resources (MIN)

Mitchell Services (MSV)

New Hope Corporation (NHC)

Newmont Corporation Cdi 1:1 (NEM)

Northern Star (NST)

Novonix Limited (NVX)

Omegaoilgaslimited (OMA)

Pilbara Min Ltd (PLS)

Regis Resources (RRL)

Rio Tinto Limited (RIO)

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

Santos Ltd (STO)

South32 Limited (S32)

Stanmore Resources (SMR)

Sunstone Metals Ltd (STM)

Tesoro Gold Ltd (TSO)

True North Copper (TNC)

Turaco Gold Limited (TCG)

Vysarn Ltd (VYS)

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

Woodside Energy (WDS)

Technology, Media, Telecos and Gaming
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Ai-Media Technologie (AIM)

Airtasker Limited (ART)

Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

Attura (ATA)

Betr Entertainment (BBT)

Car Group Limited (CAR)

Data#3 Limited (DTL)

Firstwave Cloud Tech (FCT)

Frontier Digital Ltd (FDV)

Intelligent Monitoring Group (IMB)

Iress Limited (IRE)

Jumbo Interactive (JIN)

Light & Wonder Inc Cdi 1:1 (LNW)

Megaport Limited (MP1)

Nextdc Limited (NXT)

Objective Corp (OCL)

Rea Group (REA)

Readytech Holdings (RDY)

Seek Limited (SEK)

Siteminder (SDR)

Superloop Limited (SLC)

Swoop Holdings Ltd (SWP)

Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (TAH)

Technology One (TNE)

Telstra Group (TLS)

The Lottery Corp (TLC)

The Star Ent Grp (SGR)

Tpg Telecom Limited (TPG)

Wisetech Global Ltd (WTC)

Xero Ltd (XRO)

Americas
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Adobe Systems Inc (ADBE.NAS)

Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.NAS)

Amazon Inc (AMZN.NAS)

Apple Inc (AAPL.NAS)

Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK.B.NYS)

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG.NYS)

Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO.NAS)

Constellation Software Inc/Canada (CSU.TSX)

Eli Lilly & Co (LLY.NYS)

Freeport-Mcmoran Inc (FCX.NYS)

General Motors Co (GM.NYS)

Global Business Travel Group I (GBTG.NYS)

Honeywell International Inc (HON.NAS)

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.NYS)

Linde Plc (LIN.NAS)

Mastercard Inc (MA.NYS)

Mcdonald'S Corp (MCD.NYS)

Meta Platforms Inc A (META.NAS)

Microsoft Corp (MSFT.NAS)

Netflix Inc (NFLX.NAS)

Nike Inc (NKE.NYS)

Nvidia Corp (NVDA.NAS)

Paypal Holdings Inc (Usa) (PAYPAL)

Pfizer Inc (PFE.NYS)

Rtx Corp (RTX.NYS)

Salesforcecom Inc (CRM.NYS)

Sharkninja Inc (SN.NYS)

Starbucks Corp (Us) (STARBU)

Tesla Inc (TSLA.NAS)

Visa Inc (Usa) (VISAIN)

Walt Disney Co/The (DIS.NYS)

Asia
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Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988.HKE)

Tencent Holdings Ltd (0700.HKE)

Europe and United Kingdom
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Astrazeneca Plc (AZN.LSE)

Diageo Plc (DGE.LSE)

Glencore Plc (GLEN.LSE)

Hennes & Mauritz Ab (HM-B.STO)

Hermes International (Eur) (HERMES)

Industria De Diseno Textil Sa (ITX.MAD)

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton Se (LVMH.MTA)

Nestle Sa (Switz) (NESTLE)

Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVO-B.CSE)

Roche Holding Ag (ROG.SWX)

Shell Plc (SHEL.LSE)

Siemens Ag (SIE.ETR)

News & Insights

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s adept negotiation of a US-China tariff deal and his method for assessing tariffs’ modest impact on inflation, using a 20.5% effective rate, position him as a formidable successor to Henry Morganthau’s legacy.

In the 1930s, the US Treasury Secretary Henry Morganthau was widely regarded as the finest Treasury Secretary since Alexander Hamilton. However, if the current Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, continues to deliver results as he is doing now, he will provide formidable competition to Morganthau’s legacy.

The quality of Bessent’s work is exceptional, demonstrated by his ability to secure an agreement with China in just a few days in complex circumstances.

The concept of the "effective tariff rate" is a term that has gained traction recently. Although nominal tariff rates on individual goods in individual countries might be as high as 100% or 125%; the effective tariff rate, which reflects the actual tariffs the US imposes on imports from all countries, is thought to be only 20.5%. This figure comes from an online spreadsheet published by Fitch Ratings, since 24 April.

Finch Ratings Calculator Screenshot

This effective tariff rate of 20.5% can be used in assessing the impact of import tariffs on US inflation. To evaluate this, I used a method proposed by Scott Bessent during his Senate confirmation hearing. Bessent began by noting that imports account for only 16% of US goods and services that are consumed in the US Economy. In this case, a 10% revenue tariff would increase domestic prices by just 1.6%. With a core inflation rate of 2.8% in the US, this results in a headline inflation rate of 4.4%. Thus, the overall impact of such tariffs on the US economy is relatively modest.

A couple of weeks ago, Austan Goolsbee, the President of the Chicago Fed, noted that tariffs typically increase inflation, which might prompt the Fed to lift rates, but they also reduce economic output, which might prompt the Fed to rate cuts. Consequently, Goolsbee suggested that the Federal Reserve might opt to do nothing. This prediction was successful when the Open Market Committee of the Fed, with Goolsbee as a member, left the Fed Funds rate unchanged last week.

A 90-day agreement between the US and China, masterfully negotiated by Scott Bessent, has dramatically reduced tariffs between China and the US. China now only imposes a 10% import tariff on the US, while the US applies a 30% tariff on Chinese goods—10% as a revenue tariff and 20% to pressure China to curb the supply of fentanyl ingredients to third parties in Mexico or Canada. It is this fentanyl which fuels the US drug crisis. This is a priority for the Trump administration.

How Import Tariffs Affect US Inflation.

We can calculate how much inflation a tariff adds to the US economy in the same way as Scott Bessent by multiplying the effective tariff rate by the proportion that imports are of US GDP. Based on a 20.5% US effective tariff rate, I calculated that it adds 3.28% to the US headline Consumer Price Index (CPI). This results in a US headline inflation rate of 6.1% for the year ahead. In Australia, we can draw parallels to the 10% GST introduced 24 years ago, where price effects were transient and vanished after a year, avoiding sustained high inflation.

Before these negotiations, the US was levying a nominal tariff on China of 145%. Some items were not taxed, so meant that the effective tariff on China was 103%. Levying this tariff meant that the US faced a price effect of 3.28%, contributing to a 6.1% headline inflation rate.

If the nominal tariff rate dropped to 80%, the best-case scenario I considered previously, the price effect would fall to 2.4%, with a headline US inflation rate of 5.2%. With the US now charging China a 30% tariff, this adds only 2% to headline inflation, yielding a manageable 4.8% US inflation rate.

As Goolsbee indicated, the Fed might consider raising interest rates to counter inflation or cutting them to address reduced output, but ultimately, it is likely to maintain current rates, as it did last week. I anticipate the Fed will continue to hold interest rates steady but with an easing bias, potentially cutting rates in the second half of the year once the situation stabilises.

My current Fed Funds rate model suggests that, absent this year's tariff developments, the Fed would have cut rates by 50 basis points. This could be highly positive for the US economy.

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In a lively presentation to the Economic Club of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee highlighted tariffs as a minor stagflation risk but emphasized strong U.S. GDP growth of around 2.6%, suggesting a resilient economy and potential for a soft landing.

I’d like to discuss a presentation delivered by Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, to the Economic Club of New York on 10 April. Austan Goolsbee, gave a remarkably animated talk about tariffs and their impact on the U.S. economy.

Goolsbee is a current member of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, alongside representatives from Washington, D.C., and Fed bank Presidents from Chicago, Boston, St. Louis, and Kansas City.  

Having previously served as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in the Obama White House, Goolsbee’s presentation style in New York was notably different from his more reserved demeanour I had previously seen when I had attended a talk of his in Chicago.

During his hour-long, fast-paced talk, Goolsbee addressed the economic implications of tariffs. He recounted an interview where he argued that raising interest rates was not the appropriate response to tariffs, a stance that led some to label him a “Dove.” He humorously dismissed the bird analogy, instead likening himself to a “Data Dog,” tasked with sniffing out the data to guide decision-making.

Goolsbee explained that tariffs typically drive inflation higher, which might ordinarily prompt rate hikes. However, they also tend to reduce economic growth, suggesting a need to cut rates. This creates a dilemma where rates might not need adjustment at all. He described tariffs as a “stagflation event” but emphasised that their impact is minor compared to the severe stagflation of the 1970s.

When asked if the U.S. was heading towards a recession, Goolsbee said that the "hard data" was surprisingly strong.

Let us now look at our model of US GDP based on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. This Index   incorporates 85 variables across production, sales, employment, and personal consumption.  In the final quarter of last year, this index indicated the GDP growth was slightly below the long-term average, suggesting a US GDP growth rate of 1.9% to 2%.

However, data from the first quarter of this year showed stronger growth, just fractionally below the long-term trend.

Using Our Chicago Fed model, we find that US GDP growth had risen from about 2% growth to a growth rate of around 2.6%, indicating a robust U.S. economy far from recessionary conditions.

Model of US GDP

We think that   increased government revenue from Tariffs might temper domestic demand, potentially guiding growth down towards 1.9% or 2% by year’s end. Despite concerns about tariffs triggering a downturn, this highlights the economy’s resilience and suggests   a “soft landing,” which could allow interest rates to ease, weaken the U.S. dollar, and boost demand for equities.

We will provide monthly reviews of these indicators. We note that, for now, the outlook for the U.S. economy remains very positive.

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This discussion simplifies the US business cycle, highlighting how tariffs are projected to lower growth to 1.8% in 2025, reduce the budget deficit, and foster an extended soft landing, boosting equities and commodities through 2027.


I want to discuss a simplified explanation of the US business cycle, prompted by the International Monetary Fund's forecast released yesterday, which, for the first time, assessed the impact of tariffs on the US economy. Unlike last year's 2.8% growth, the IMF predicts a drop to 1.8% in 2025. This is slightly below my forecast of 1.9 to 2%. They further anticipate growth will decline to 1.7% in 2026, lower than my previous estimate of 2%. Growth then returns to 2% by 2027.

This suggests that increased tariffs will soften demand, but the mechanism is intriguing. Tariffs are expected to reduce the US budget deficit from about 7% of GDP to around 5%, stabilizing government debt, though more spending cuts are needed.  This reduction in US deficit reduces US GDP growth. This leads to a slow down.

The revenue from tariffs is clearly beneficial for the US budget deficit, but the outlook for the US economy now points to an extended soft landing. This is the best environment for equities and commodities over a two-year view. With below-trend growth this year and even softer growth next year, interest rates are expected to fall, leading the fed funds rate to drift downward in response to slower growth trends. Additionally, the US dollar is likely to weaken as the Fed funds rate declines, following a traditional US trade cycle model: falling interest rates lead to a weaker currency, which in turn boosts commodity prices.

This is particularly significant because the US is a major exporter of agricultural commodities, has rebuilt its oil industry, and is exporting LNG gas. The rising value of these commodities stimulates the economy, boosting corporate profits and setting the stage for the next surge in growth in a couple of years.

This outlook includes weakening US interest rates and rising commodity prices, continuing through the end of next year. This will be combined with corporate tax cuts, likely to be passed in a major bill in July, reducing US corporate taxes from 21% to 15%.  This outlook is very positive for both commodities and equities. Our model of commodity prices shows an upward movement, driven by an increase in international liquidity within the international monetary system.

With US dollar debt as the largest component in International reserves , as US interest rates fall, the creation of US government debt accelerates, increasing demand for commodities.  The recent down cycle in commodities is now transitioning to an extended upcycle through 2026 and 2027, fueled by this increased liquidity due to weaker interest rates.

Furthermore, the rate of growth in international reserves is accelerating, having reached a long-term average of about 7% and soon expected to rise to around 9%. Remarkably, the tariffs are generating a weaker US dollar, which drives the upward movement in commodity prices. This improvement in commodity prices is expected to last for at least the next two years, and potentially up to four years.

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