Research notes

GQG has provided a February FUM update.  Whilst monthly net flows remained negative (-US$3.2bn), strong February investment performance (+US$10.5bn), which drove +4.5% FUM growth, made this a positive update in our view. We lift our GQG FY26F/FY27F EPS by +1%-+2%, driven by increased FUM forecasts based on better investment performance than we expected. Our PT rises to A$2.03 (previously A$1.89). We acknowledge it remains early, but the improved January and February investment performance for GQG might mark the start of a business turnaround. We continue to see the stock as undervalued trading on 8x FY1 PE and an ~11% dividend yield. With >20% TSR upside, we move to a BUY rating, previously Accumulate.

PNR reported its H1FY26 result, alongside a production downgrade. Updated production forecasts of 86–92koz Au (previously 100–110koz) are considerably lower than our previous forecasts. We now model the upper end of guidance at an AISC of A$2,609/oz. We maintain our BUY rating and price target of A$6.53ps (previously A$6.83ps), the downgrade a function of revised forecasts.

FDV’s FY25 EBIT result appeared comfortably above guidance (-A$4.6m vs -A$10m). We lift our FDV FY26F/FY27F EPS by >10% (off low bases), with reduced revenue forecasts offset by improved EBITDA margin expectations. Our valuation and PT are largely unchanged at A$0.56. We see long-term value in FDV given its unique assembled portfolio, and with significant upside to our PT (A$0.56) we maintain our BUY call.

The Donald Project resource update confirms strategic heavy rare earth exposure, with improved definition of Dy and Tb supporting the project’s importance to Western rare earth supply chains. Strong strategic backing from Energy Fuels (UUUU.NYS), with the Donald Project to supply REEC feedstock to its White Mesa Mill in the US, where rare earth prices are currently materially higher than in China. Valuation increases to A$373m (+10%) following model updates, while our target price reduces to A$0.90ps reflecting the rebasing of equity after ATR’s redomicile to Australia. This change was mechanical and non-dilutionary, as Hong Kong shareholders received 2 ASX shares for every 1 share previously held, with the share price adjusted accordingly. There was no change in the underlying equity value. Maintain SPECULATIVE BUY.

EPY’s recent 1H26 result saw the group deliver underlying NPATA of A$1.8m down from $2.6m in 1H25. No interim dividend was declared (due to retained earnings position). The group maintained capital flexibility with ~3.0cps of surplus capital earmarked for further Buybacks/ Dividends/ Growth initiatives. Funds-in-use in EPY’s core Invoice Finance division declined ~16% YoY as a result of client attrition in 2H25, which set a lower starting base into 1H26. This grew progressively in 1H26 with originations within management expectations, however utilisation was lower toward year-end. Trade Finance FIU also reduced as the group continued to rebalance away from large exposures. Equipment Finance FIU grew +37% YoY, with Origination momentum continuing to build. Prior FY26 guidance for NPATA growth of ~15-20% (i.e. $6m NPATA) was withdrawn in Nov’26 due to softer than expected customer utilisation of Invoice Finance, along with costs/timing of implementation of the group’s new Loan Management system. EPY however is now guiding 2H26 earnings to be likely consistent with 1H26 (i.e. FY26 Underlying EPS is expected to be ~1.4cps). The Board intends to pay all retained earnings as a fully franked dividend in FY26.

We update our FY26 forecast to incorporate US$4m of transaction costs related to the Impect and IsoLynx transactions. This was scheduled to come through in 2H26. We understand this will likely be removed from management EBITDA (hence we leave this unchanged at US$23.8m for FY26). Our reported EBITDA is lowered by that amount to US$13.3m. Our price target and recommendation remain unchanged.

There were no major surprises in EDV’s 1H26 result following the company’s trading update in January. While EDV continues to work on its refreshed strategy with further details to be provided at an investor day on 27 May, management confirmed that the combined Retail and Hotels portfolio will be retained. Management also noted that they will continue investing in Dan Murphy’s to restore its price leadership, while accelerating hotel renewals and electronic gaming machine (EGM) replacements. We decrease FY26-28F underlying EBIT by between 0-1%. Our target price falls to $3.65 (from $3.70) and we retain our HOLD rating.

The ammonium paratungstate (APT) price continues to climb, above US$1,600 per metric tonne unit (mtu – 10kg). We have lifted the modelled short-term price to US$1,300/mtu, and our long-term price from US$600/mtu to US$700/mtu. Our valuation and target price have lifted from A$0.16 per share to A$0.23ps. Continued strength in the tungsten price, a most critical metal, could lead to a further increase in our target price. With the share price above our target price, we lower our rating to TRIM from Speculative Buy. Tungsten concentrate production at the start of this current March Quarter may have been affected by the Wet Season in north Queensland at Mt Carbine, and to some extent at Barruecopardo, Salamanca Province, Spain.

Waypoint REIT (WPR) delivered a solid FY25 result with FFO of 16.64c, in-line with upgraded guidance and FY26 outlook modestly ahead of expectations. The portfolio continues to perform as a yield-focused vehicle, with limited near-term execution risk following the renewal of the majority of FY26 lease expiries with key tenant Viva Energy (VEA), securing ~12% rental uplift. WPR trades at ~13% discount to NTA ($2.90) and offers a ~7% FY26F distribution yield. We upgrade WPR from Hold to ACCUMULATE. Our target price increases to $2.75 (prev. $2.70).

IAM reported its 1H26 result with revenue of ~A$9.1m, +13% on pcp (1H25 ~A$8m), but ~A$1m below our estimate. It was an overall resilient half for IAM, seeing Bond/Loan FUA growth and a strong net trading income performance. Having right-sized its cost base with annualised cash costs now around A$17m, further topline line growth from here should result in operating leverage coming through. We expect the business to continue to move towards profitability. Speculative Buy maintained.