Research notes

WJL’s FY26 result was weak but in line with guidance. FY26 was impacted by subdued trading conditions and material investment in the business. FY27 is going to be a particularly challenging year for WJL given the Middle East conflict, cost of living pressures, Virgin Australia materially reducing its commission and overrides and the RBA surcharging regulation changes. We have made significant revisions to our already well below consensus forecasts. In the absence of corporate activity, shareholders will need to be patient given the current challenges WJL needs to overcome while investing in its business for longer term success. We retain a Hold rating with a new price target of A$0.40.

TNE’s 1H26 result came in largely as expected, albeit with some FX headwinds, which otherwise would have seen its underlying result land ahead of consensus. The group enters 2H26, with a strong pipeline of ‘Plus’ leads, which sees TNE well positioned to achieve the top end of its re-affirmed FY26 ARR/PBT Guidance. The pullback in TNE’s share price sees our TSR lift to 18% and we therefore move to an Accumulate rating with a $32.30 price target.

While ELD’s 1H26 result was up strongly on the pcp, it missed consensus estimates due to materially higher Corporate Services costs associated with Systems Modernisation. Outlook comments were relatively optimistic despite the BOM’s dry outlook. We have revised our forecasts for higher costs and the divestment of Killara. After material weakness, we maintain a BUY recommendation. A significant rerating requires delivering consensus estimates and deleveraging.

ALQ delivered a strong FY26 with EBIT +18% and NPAT +26% YoY. Commodities was the standout, as 2H revenue growth of +23% was accompanied by +170bps of HoH margin expansion. Commodities guidance (FY27 +12-14% revenue growth) is conservative and would require a material deceleration from 2H26 (+23%). Indeed, 1H27 minerals guidance is predicated on flat (absolute) sample volumes vs 2H26, despite seasonal tailwinds (Sept-half > Mar-half) and accelerating junior activity. Our forecast changes are negligible, and we still view risk to our forecasts as skewed firmly to the upside, absent a material supply disruption scenario. We forecast Commodities revenue growth of +25%, while our raisings data points to geochemistry volumes up +35-45% during 1H, corroborated by the sample flows chart which already shows volumes tracking +25-30% in April. The stock is now trading on just 23x FY27 PE as it enters a bullish commodities cycle with a gold-plated balance sheet (leverage 1.5x). Reiterate BUY.

NHC delivered a materially stronger-than-expected 3Q26, with group coal sales of 3.2Mt beating consensus by ~20%. Saleable Production was also strong at 3.01Mt, beating consensus by ~10%. Bengalla achieved a FOB cash cost ($AUD/t) of $74, down from $84.4 in the prior quarter. Underlying EBITDA (unaudited) of ~A$130m came in ~22% ahead of the prior quarter, supported by higher volumes and a meaningful step-down in unit costs. We maintain a HOLD rating with a target price of A$5.25ps.

MP1 has announced a series of large contract wins which are financially and strategically significant. MP1 will use its globally unique communications platform to connect servers and GPU clusters in numerous DCs across the US. DC power constraints are a growing issue and MP1 was uniquely able to stitch together multiple sites to provide consolidated inference solutions. We update our forecasts to reflect recent contract wins, lifting our TP to $15.50 per share. We retain a BUY recommendation.

BXB’s trading update was disappointing, reflecting short-term pallet repair capacity constraints in parts of the US. These issues were driven by subcontractor turnover at service centres, labour shortages, and elevated supply chain costs, including additional repair, handling, transportation, and storage expenses. BXB has downgraded FY26 (constant FX) revenue growth guidance to 2-3% (vs 3-4% previously) while underlying EBIT growth is now expected to be 3-5% (vs 8-11% previously). We adjust FY26/27/28F underlying EBIT by -4%/-5%/-1%. Our target price declines to $18.70 (from $25.50) and we move to a HOLD rating (from ACCUMULATE). While management expects US pallet repair capacity constraints to be a short-term issue, with resolution targeted by the end of 1H27 and improvement initiatives already underway, risks remain given the challenging operating environment, including potential for further subcontractor turnover. With the volume outlook also uncertain, we prefer to wait for BXB’s FY26 result on 20 August before reassessing our view.

TNC continues to advance both the Mt Oxide Copper Project and Cloncurry Hub across multiple fronts, against a backdrop of record copper prices. Exploration momentum continues to build at Mt Oxide, while the broader Cloncurry growth strategy is gaining traction through ongoing exploration success and commercial agreements. Looking ahead, we view the next 12 months as a key formative period for TNC, with continued drilling and development activity expected to further define the scale potential at Mt Oxide. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating and A$1.30ps price target.

Alibaba Group is a Chinese multinational technology company specialising in e-commerce, retail, Internet and technology. The company has 7 main operating segments: China commerce retail, China commerce wholesale, International commerce, Core commerce, Digital Media and Entertainment, Cloud and Other. Across these segments are 32 companies. Alibaba’s primary business is a digital marketplace where consumers and merchants can connect to buy and sell from each other.

We initiate coverage on SHAPE with an ACCUMULATE recommendation and an $8.62 share price target. We see SHAPE as a higher-quality contractor, supported by short-duration projects, repeat client relationships, predominantly internal works, disciplined contract selection and a capital-light delivery model. This operating model, combined with its strong client relationships and tender discipline, positions SHAPE to continue converting pipeline into project wins.