Research notes

We update our outlook and forecasts for DYL to reflect a series of changes at the corporate, project and macro level since our last update. Key revisions include adjustments to first production timing at Tumas, cash position and an uplift to our bull-case uranium price assumption. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating and increase our price target to A$2.56ps (from A$1.92ps).

WJL announced that potential takeover discussions with both Helloworld (HLO) and BGH Capital have ceased. WJL has downgraded its FY26 EBITDA guidance by another 7-9%. Earnings uncertainty remains high given cyclical and structural threats and at a time when WJL is investing in its business for longer term success. Given WJL is no longer in play, focus returns to the fundamentals of the business which look challenged in the near term. We retain a Hold rating with a new price target of A$0.61.

A largely stable 1Q26 result compared to the 2H25 quarterly average (normalised for 2H25’s restructuring charge), which is better than 1H26 expectations. We are assuming a more bullish loan growth and impairments outlook than previously (and slightly more conservative costs). There is no change to FY26F EPS but there are 5-8% upgrades to FY27-28F. Target price lifts to $35.12/sh. We upgrade to TRIM given the improved, but still negative, potential TSR.

DXI continues to deliver strong operational results, with fixed/CPI rent escalators providing visibility for medium-term earnings growth, despite a normalisation in some industrial markets. The balance sheet is a key differentiator, with gearing below the target range, and no near-term debt maturities, DXI is afforded the flexibility to pursue value-accretive developments such as the Jandakot. Whilst these factors underpin DXI’s ability to grow income organically and recycle into higher-quality industrial assets, the current interest rate environment is likely to cap near-term valuation momentum across the A-REIT sector. On balance, DXI’s secure income, development-led value creation, and a 26% discount to NTA justify a stance more constructive than Hold, but rate-driven macro constraints prevent a Buy; we therefore retain an ACCUMULATE rating with a $2.80 price target.

The result was robust, considering the subdued volume environment, and the order book ($1.35bn) continues to surpass record levels. The cyclical low point has set in, with the company citing a “clear uplift in activity and strong momentum” across each of its key markets, underpinned by early contractor involvement processes and heightened tendering activity. While not in our forecasts, the strong demand environment could see CVL return earnings to its previous peak from FY24 apace, particularly if CVL wins another major contract. On FY24 earnings, CVL is trading on just 7x EBIT and 12x PE. This undervalues the base business, without ascribing any value to CVL’s strategic position at the WA defence precinct.

GQG reported a FY25 NPAT of US$463m, up +7% on the pcp, and +1% vs consensus (~US$460m).  Overall, we would describe this as an in-line result, with the key positive being signs of improved investment performance in January and February (as markets have turned more in GQG’s favour). We downgrade our GQG FY26F/FY27F EPS by -5%-10%. Changes to our numbers reflect increased outflows assumptions and a broad review of our earnings estimates. Our PT falls marginally to A$1.89 (previously A$1.90). Whilst acknowledging it could be early, improved January and February investment performance for GQG might mark the start of a business turnaround. Clearly there needs to be more evidence that the recent ‘flows risk’ period has passed, but trading on 7x PE and an 11% dividend yield ,we see the stock as too cheap versus its long-term prospects. We move to an ACCUMULATE rating (previously HOLD). With this note coverage transfers to Richard Coles.

AVH’s FY25 results broadly met our expectations. FY25 revenue landed slightly ahead of our forecast, gross margin a touch softer as secondary products enter the mix, but OpEx more disciplined, cash burn improved and the cash runway extended via the new debt facility with a small increase in available debt, but more importantly improved trailing revenue covenants. We see the below-consensus FY26 guidance range as a positive, to reset market expectations and give a sense the company is aiming to restore credibility around guidance, which has been off the mark in recent years. Gradual but achievable. Happy to still see another quarter or two to confirm OpEx base stability as well as early signs of re-engagement with physicians post reimbursement resolution. No change in SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation or valuation which remains at A$1.35 p/s.

The CIP portfolio continues to perform well, with +44% rental spreads and a further 20% under-renting to continue driving net property income growth over the medium term. Offsetting the strong property fundamentals, higher interest costs continue to impact CIP (and peers). Albeit, CIP’s debt book remains in good condition, benefiting from the recently issued exchangeable note ($350m at 3.5% coupon). To this end, the prospect of higher rates will likely continue to weigh on the sector, offsetting some of the positive fundamentals. It is on this basis we retain our ACCUMULATE recommendation and a $3.60/unit target price, with the view that the primary catalyst for a re-rating would be a moderation in the interest rate outlook.

AIS is acquiring Peel Mining’s (PEX) South Cobar Copper Project, extending Tritton’s resource base and supporting a credible 10+ year mine life. Mallee Bull adds high-grade, largely indicated resources, improving production visibility and enabling stronger mill utilisation, lower unit costs and enhanced operating leverage from ~FY29. Upgrade to BUY with a A$0.70ps target price, with the transaction strengthening Tritton’s long-term outlook.

NST reported its 1H26 result with no major earnings surprises, with key revisions to production, costs and guidance well flagged ahead of the print. The half yearly fully franked dividend of 25cps was a clear beat (+20%/+26% vs MorgansF/consensus). Key positive: The half year dividend of 25cps exceeded expectations but remained within the stated 20-30% cash-earnings payout range, landing toward the upper end rather than the lower end that MorgansF and consensus had forecast given the softer operating half. Key negative: The development timeline to first gold at the second major growth project, Hemi, has been officially pushed to FY30. While negative at face value, this timing was already reflected in MorgansF and the majority of consensus forecasts.