Investment Watch is a quarterly publication delivering insights into equity strategy and economic trends. The Winter 2026 edition explores how the global economy enters Q3 2026 with the Iran conflict re-escalating, a reminder that the road to resolution is rarely straight. Markets have absorbed the renewed uncertainty better than many feared, reflecting the underlying resilience we have been backing all year.

Investment Watch is a quarterly publication produced by Morgans that delves into key insights for equity and economic strategy.

This edition arrives with the Iran conflict re-escalating, yet markets have absorbed the renewed uncertainty better than many feared. That resilience is why we stay the course. We see a strong second half for growth assets, powered by artificial intelligence, energy security and a global earnings cycle that keeps delivering.

The watchpoint is inflation. It is proving stickier than hoped, keeping interest rates higher for longer and rewarding investors who focus on income over speculation. We are optimistic, but clear eyed. The best returns in the second half will go to those who stay invested, stay diversified, and resist the temptation to sit on the sidelines.


Morgans clients receive exclusive insights such as access to our latest Investment Watch publication. Contact us today to begin your journey with Morgans.

      
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Michael Knox outlines the economic outlook for growth and inflation in the U.S., the Euro area, China, India, and Australia, drawing data from the International Monetary Fund, the Congressional Budget Office, European sources, and his own analysis for Australia.
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Economics and markets
January 30, 2026
27
May
2025
2025-05-27
min read
May 27, 2025
International Reporting Season 2025
Alexander Mees (AR: 001289080)
Alexander Mees (AR: 001289080)
Head of Research
In our International Reporting Season Review, we provide an overview of the March 2025 quarterly results season for companies in the Americas, Europe and Asia.
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Research
The U.S. and China, through negotiations led by the Chinese Deputy Premier and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, agreed to a 90-day tariff reduction from over 125% to 30% and 10% respectively
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Economics and markets
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s adept negotiation of a US-China tariff deal and his method for assessing tariffs’ modest impact on inflation, using a 20.5% effective rate, position him as a formidable successor to Henry Morganthau’s legacy.
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Economics and markets
In a lively presentation to the Economic Club of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee highlighted tariffs as a minor stagflation risk but emphasized strong U.S. GDP growth of around 2.6%, suggesting a resilient economy and potential for a soft landing.
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Economics and markets
This discussion simplifies the US business cycle, highlighting how tariffs are projected to lower growth to 1.8% in 2025, reduce the budget deficit, and foster an extended soft landing, boosting equities and commodities through 2027.
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Economics and markets
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