Insights

Our best ideas are those that we think offer the highest risk-adjusted returns over a 12-month timeframe supported by a higher-than-average level of confidence. They are our most preferred sector exposures.

We make two changes to the list this month, removing Hotel Property Investments (ASX:HPI) and MoneyMe (ASX:MME).

Large cap best ideas

Wesfarmers (ASX:WES)

WES possesses one of the highest quality retail portfolios in Australia with strong brands including Bunnings, Kmart and Officeworks. The company is run by a highly regarded management team and the balance sheet is healthy. While COVID-related staff shortages are a challenge, the core Bunnings division (>60% of group EBIT) remains a solid performer as consumers continue to invest in their homes. We see the recent pullback in the share price as a good entry point for longer term investors.

Endeavour Group (ASX:EDV)

While EDV’s Retail division has significantly benefited from lockdowns and higher at-home consumption over the past two years, its higher margin Hotels business has been negatively impacted by lockdowns and restrictions. With the Australian economy now largely reopened and we move into a ‘living with COVID’ environment, this should be positive for the Hotels outlook.

Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE)

TWE owns much loved iconic wine brands, the jewel in the crown being Penfolds. We rate its management team highly. The company recently reported an impressive 1H22 result despite facing a number of material headwinds. The foundations are now in place for TWE to deliver strong double-digit growth from 2H22 over the next few years. Trading at a material discount to our valuation and other luxury brand owners, TWE is a key pick for us.

Santos (ASX:STO)

We expect the resilience of STO's growth profile and diversified earnings base see it best placed to outperform against a backdrop of a broader sector recovery. While pre-FEED, we see Dorado as likely to provide attractive growth for STO, while its recent acquisition increasing its stake in Darwin LNG has increased our confidence in Barossa's development. PNG growth meanwhile remains a riskier proposition, with the government adamant it will keep a larger share of economic rents while operator Exxon has significantly deferred growth plans across its global portfolio.

Woodside (ASX:WPL)

We believe WPL has benefited from being in the right place, at the right time. With: 1) BHP/WPL having an existing relationship, 2) BHP eager to boost its ESG profile, and 3) WPL being a quality operator (safe hands which is important for BHP). From an economic standpoint we think WPL is getting the better of the deal, with synergies not baked into deal metrics and BHP willing to accept a discount. The deal is transformative, lifting WPL into being a top 10 global E&P with +2 billion barrels of 2P reserves, with EBITDA of US$4.7bn pa and growth options.

Macquarie Group (ASX:MQG)

We continue to like MQG’s exposure to long-term structural growth areas such as infrastructure and renewables. The company also stands to benefit from recent market volatility through its trading businesses, while the company continues to gain market share in Australia mortgages.

QBE Insurance Group (ASX:QBE)

With strong rate increases still flowing through QBE's insurance book, and further cost-out benefits to come, we expect QBE's earnings profile to improve strongly over the next few years. The stock also has a robust balance sheet and remains relatively inexpensive overall trading on ~14x FY22F PE.

Cochlear (ASX:COH)

Cochlear maintains a dominant position in the implantable hearing solutions segment. While we continue to believe a full recovery from Covid-based disruptions still has time to play out, improving demand and strong pipeline, coupled with management's increasing confidence, suggests an improving earnings profile.

ResMed Inc (ASX:RMD)

While we believe the next few quarters will likely be volatile, as Covid-related demand for ventilators continues to slow and core sleep apnoea volumes gradually lift, nothing changes our medium/longer term view that the company remains well-placed as it builds a unique, patient-centric, connected-care digital platform that addresses the main pinch points across the healthcare value chain.

Transurban (ASX:TCL)

TCL owns a pure play portfolio of toll road concession assets located in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, and North America. This provides exposure to regional population and employment growth and urbanisation. Given very high EBITDA margins, earnings are driven by traffic growth (with recovery from Covid) and toll escalation (roughly half at CPI and the remainder fixed c.4% pa). We think TCL will continue to be attractive to investors given its market cap weighting (important for passive index tracking flows), the high quality of its assets, management team, balance sheet, and growth prospects. Watch for rapid recovery in DPS alongside traffic recovery and WestConnex acquisition prospects. A negative overhang is the contaminated soil disposal issues related to its West Gate Tunnel Project.

BHP Group (ASX:BHP)

We view BHP as relatively low risk given its superior diversification relative to its major global mining peers. The spread of BHP’s operations also supplies some defence against direct Covid-19 impact on earnings contributors. While there are more leveraged plays sensitive to a global recovery scenario, we see BHP as holding an attractive combination of upside sensitivity, balance sheet strength and resilient dividend profile.

South32 (ASX:S32)

S32 has transformed its portfolio divesting South African thermal coal and acquiring an interest in Chile copper, substantially boosting group earnings quality, as well as S32's risk and ESG profile. Unlike its peers amongst ASX-listed large-cap miners, S32 is not exposed to iron ore. Instead offering a highly diversified portfolio of base metals and metallurgical coal (with most of these metals enjoying solid price strength). We see attractive long-term value potential in S32 from de-risking of its growth portfolio, the potential for further portfolio changes, and an earnings-linked dividend policy.

Seek (SEK)

Of the classifieds players, we continue to see SEK as the one with the most relative upside, a view that’s based on the sustained listings growth we’ve seen over the period. The tailwinds that have driven elevated job ads (~250k currently, +35% on pcp) and updated guidance (FY22 EBITDA updated ~16% at the midpoint to A$490m-A$515m) appear to still remain in place, i.e. subdued migration, candidate scarcity and the drive for greater employee flexibility. With businesses looking to grow headcount in the coming months and job mobility at historically high levels according to the RBA, we see these favourable operating conditions driving increased reliance on SEK’s products.

Morgans clients can download our full list of Best Ideas, including our mid-cap and small-cap key stock picks.

Domino Pizza (ASX:DMP)

DMP's 1H22 result disappointed on operating margins, with its profitability in Asia underperforming expectations. This represents a reset of Asian margins after the COVID tailwinds of last year, but we believe margins will improve in the months ahead as the rush of new corporate stores matures.

After a period of sustained weakness in the share price, we think now is the time to give DMP another look. We upgrade to Add.

Healius (ASX:HLS)

1H underlying results were above expectations, with solid revenue growth underpinned by COVID-related gains and cost outs, driving margins and OCF to record levels. Pathology posted triple-digit profit growth, on uplift in both COVID and non-COVID testing, while Imaging and Day Hospitals went backwards on COVID-impacted elective surgery restrictions and increased costs.

While no FY21 guidance was provided, as COVID uncertainty remains, we believe the company looks well placed to not only benefit from a likely "baseload" of COVID PCR testing going forward, but also from any rebound in demand from the backlog in diagnosis and surgery as the country opens up.

Homeco Daily Needs (ASX:HDN)

HDN's result reflected the solid underlying portfolio fundamentals, however it's now building on this foundation via the merger with Aventus (implementation 4 March).

The combined portfolio is valued at +$4.4bn across 51 assets with exposure to 'last mile' logistics, as well as a significant land bank with future development potential (38% site coverage with ~$500m future developments opportunities).

We retain an Add rating.

Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX:KAR)

Another bumper result from Karoon, with the oil producer delivering strong earnings growth, heavy FCF generation, and guidance upgrades.

FY22 production/cost guidance were both upgraded. In the next 12 months Karoon will more than double current production while capex remains fixed given management locked in most contracts during peak COVID.

High-margin oil producer with growth and a good balance sheet. Maintain Add.

Universal Store (ASX:UNI)

UNI's trading gross margin improved by 60 bp in 1H22, reflecting the benefits of direct sourcing and good management through strong pricing discipline. Overall LFL sales were down (2.2)%, cycling +26.2% in 1H21, which we see as a good outcome.

We have taken account of the effect of Omicron on 2H22 sales, resulting in a 2.8% reduction in our EPS forecast for FY22. We reiterate an Add rating.

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Our best ideas are those that we think offer the highest risk-adjusted returns over a 12-month timeframe supported by a higher-than-average level of confidence. They are our most preferred sector exposures.

New additions: Wesfarmers (ASX:WES), South32 (ASX:S32), Newcrest (ASX:NCM), Seek (ASX:SEK), Beacon Lighting (ASX:BLX), Webjet (ASX:WEB), Pro Medicus (ASX:PME), Atomos (ASX:AMS), MAAS Group (ASX:MGH) and Red 5 (ASX:RED).

Removals: Sonic Healthcare Limited (ASX:SHL), Alliance Aviation Services (ASX:AQZ), Panoramic Resources (ASX:PAN), Ramelius Resources (ASX:RMS) and Booktopia Group (ASX:BKG).

Watch

Tabcorp (ASX:TAH)

We continue to view the risk/return profile of TAH as asymmetrically skewed to the upside over the next ~12 months as the demerger of the high quality, infrastructure-like Lotteries & Keno business progresses. At current levels, we think L&K is trading on ~15x EBITDA and think this multiple can re-rate to between 16-20x on a standalone basis over time, supported by offshore peer comps and domestic infrastructure names.

Wesfarmers (ASX:WES)

WES possesses one of the highest quality retail portfolios in Australia with strong brands including Bunnings, Kmart, Target and Officeworks. The company is run by a highly regarded management team and the balance sheet is healthy. While COVID-related staff shortages are proving to be a challenge, the core Bunnings division (>60% of group EBIT) remains a solid performer as consumers continue to invest in their homes. We see the recent pullback in the share price as a good entry point for longer term investors.

Endeavour Group (ASX:EDV)

While EDV’s Retail division has benefited greatly from lockdowns and higher at-home consumption, its Hotels business has been negatively impacted by closures and restrictions. The reopening of venues in NSW and VIC should be positive for EDV overall, despite likely weakness in Retail as at-home consumption normalises, given Hotels is a higher margin business.

Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE)

TWE has the China reallocation risk and it will take 2-3 years to recover these earnings in new markets. However once it comps China earnings, we expect TWE to deliver strong earnings growth from the 2H22 onwards. Organic growth will be supplemented by M&A. On this front, we view TWE’s recent acquisition of Napa Valley luxury wine business, Frank Family Vineyards (FFV) as strategically important. This high margin business should see TWE achieve its US margin target two years earlier than planned. We see recent share price weakness as a great buying opportunity in this high quality company. The stock is currently trading at a material discount to its long term PE range.

Santos (ASX:STO)

We expect the resilience of STO's growth profile and diversified earnings base see it best placed to outperform against a backdrop of a continuing broader sector recovery. STO remains our top preference amongst our large-cap energy universe. With early indications supportive of our view that material synergies and enhanced growth plans will result from the OSH merger. While in good shape, we expect STO to continue gaining investor support as it executes on the opportunistic OSH merger.

Woodside (ASX:WPL)

We believe WPL has benefited from being in the right place, at the right time. With: 1) BHP/WPL having an existing relationship, 2) BHP eager to boost its ESG profile, and 3) WPL being a quality operator (safe hands which is important for BHP). From an economic standpoint we think WPL is clearly getting the better of the deal, with synergies not baked into deal metrics and BHP willing to accept a discount. The deal is transformative, lifting WPL into being a top 10 global E&P with +2 billion barrels of 2P reserves, with EBITDA of US$4.7bnpa and growth options.

Macquarie Group (ASX:MQG)

We still see MQG as relatively inexpensive and continue to like its exposure to long-term structural growth areas such as infrastructure and renewables. Near term MQG is likely to face earnings pressures from the impact of soft economic conditions but it remains well positioned to ride out the current COVID-19 period and seize opportunities on the other side.

QBE Insurance Group (ASX:QBE)

We see QBE as likely having positive underlying momentum into next year. QBE has been putting through top-line rate increases of around 9%, which should assist margin expansion into FY22. With QBE's balance sheet recently reset, pricing tailwinds evident and the stock relatively inexpensive trading on 11x FY22F PE.

Westpac (ASX:WBC)

WBC is our preferred major bank. We believe WBC offers the most compelling valuation of the major banks. In terms of quality of overall risk profile, we believe WBC is a close second to CBA. On credit risk, we believe WBC is positioned relatively defensively due to its loan book being more skewed to Australian home lending. We expect WBC to announce a $5bn off-market share buyback on 1 November and we expect investors to increasingly warm up to WBC’s medium-term cost out story.

ResMed Inc (ASX:RMD)

While we believe the next few quarters will likely be volatile, as COVID-related demand for ventilators continues to slow and core sleep apnoea volumes gradually lift, nothing changes our medium/longer term view that the company remains well-placed as it builds a unique, patient-centric, connected-care digital platform that addresses the main pinch points across the healthcare value chain.

Transurban (ASX:TCL) - New Addition

TCL owns a pure play portfolio of toll road concession assets located in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, and North America. This provides exposure to regional population and employment growth and urbanisation. Given very high EBITDA margins, earnings are driven by traffic growth (with recovery from COVID) and toll escalation (roughly half at CPI and the remainder fixed c.4% pa). We think TCL will continue to be attractive to investors given its market cap weighting (important for passive index tracking flows), the high quality of its assets, management team, balance sheet, and growth prospects. Watch for rapid recovery in DPS alongside traffic recovery and WestConnex acquisition prospects. A negative overhang is the contaminated soil disposal issues related to its West Gate Tunnel Project.

BHP Group (ASX:BHP)

We view BHP as relatively low risk given its superior diversification relative to its major global mining peers. The spread of BHP’s operations also supplies some defence against direct COVID-19 impact on earnings contributors. While there are more leveraged plays sensitive to a global recovery scenario, we see BHP as holding an attractive combination of upside sensitivity, balance sheet strength and resilient dividend profile.

Newcrest (ASX:NCM)

For those looking for gold exposure without development risk, we believe NCM offers good value after its recent sell down. The pull back in NCM’s share price looks to have been driven by operational underperformance in the first half, much of which can be explained by the one-off impact of the extended shutdown of part of the Cadia process plant. With this event behind the company, and NCM’s geographic spread in Australia, Canada and PNG providing some relief from the cost and labour challenges WA focussed companies are currently feeling, we expect a stronger second half from NCM. As a bonus, NCM is also a major copper producer, providing some level of internal hedge through exposure to both base and precious metal prices.

South32 (ASX:S32)

S32 has transformed its portfolio divesting South African thermal coal and acquiring an interest in Chile copper, substantially boosting group earnings quality, as well as S32's risk and ESG profile. Unlike its peers amongst ASX-listed large-cap miners, S32 is not exposed to iron ore. Instead offering a highly diversified portfolio of base metals and metallurgical coal (with most of these metals enjoying solid price strength). We see attractive long-term value potential in S32 from de-risking of its growth portfolio, the potential for further portfolio changes, and an earnings-linked dividend policy.

Morgans clients can download our full list of Best Ideas, including our mid-cap and small-cap key stock picks.

Investing is a bit of a balancing act - juggling the risk of investing against the returns you're hoping for. The higher the return, the higher the risk. The lower the return, the lower the risk.

The asset classes

Cash, fixed interest, property and equities make up the traditional asset classes available and each asset class has its own risk and reward structure. More recently, alternative assets are making their way into portfolios and can help reduce overall portfolio risk depending on the type of asset. This is because most alternative strategies have a lower correlation with the traditional asset classes.

Arguably, one of the most important decisions you will make about investing is how much to allocate between the asset classes – referred to as asset allocation – and your choice can influence the long-term returns and risk of your portfolio. Therefore, it is important you understand the nature of each asset class before investing.

How you feel about risk and how long you want to invest will help determine how much to invest in the different asset classes. For example, younger investors who have the time to invest may want to invest a greater portion of savings into growth-type assets whereas those closer to retirement may want to reduce risk and consider income-type assets or focus on total return.

Your personal situation - Ask yourself

1. How much money do I have available to invest?
2. What do I want to achieve from my investment?
3. How long am I investing for?
4. What risks am I prepared to take to achieve this?
5. What are my expectations of returns from my investment?
6. Am I looking for tax savings from my investments?
7. What other investments do I have that should be considered as part of my overall strategy?

When starting out with investing it is always recommended you try to not time the market. History has shown investors can actually lose by doing this. As they say, you have to be in it to win it. Diversifying across all asset sectors is the best way to minimise risk over the long term.  

Investing amounts regularly over a period of time is also a great strategy, and much better than trying to time the market.  It allows you to take advantage of dollar-cost averaging which is simply investing in additional shares or units in an existing investment over time. You get more bang for your buck this way.

Investing is a balancing act. But if you arm yourself with the right information and seek the right advice so that your portfolio suits your personal goals for investing, you have a greater chance of success.

Woodside Petroleum (ASX:WPL) is set to break away from industry norms, steering its capital toward New Energy ventures, including renewables and green energy resources. The company aims to invest US$5 billion by 2030, contingent on the successful completion of the BHP Petroleum merger.

New Energy Investment Initiatives

If the merger proceeds, Woodside Petroleum plans to allocate funds to four primary projects: H2Perth (hydrogen/ammonia), H2OK (hydrogen), H2TAS (hydrogen), and Heliogen (solar). The move reflects a shift in focus towards Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) considerations.

Evaluating New Energy's Potential

While the company anticipates an ESG boost, concerns arise over the efficiency of early capital deployment in emerging markets. Woodside's transition away from traditional hydrocarbons poses challenges, with uncertainties around achieving targeted returns for New Energy projects.

Analysis of Aggressive New Energy Push

Woodside's aggressive push into New Energy signifies a substantial business transformation. Diversifying from well-established hydrocarbons to renewables and green energy introduces competitive pressures and potential hurdles in achieving return profiles.

Impact of BHP Petroleum Merger

The impending merger with BHP Petroleum promises to enhance hydrocarbon production and geographical diversification. The Trion field in the southern Gulf of Mexico is expected to reach the final investment decision (FID) around the merger completion, contributing to new growth.

Forecast and Valuation Considerations

Woodside Petroleum's New Energy initiatives are yet to be factored into valuation, awaiting project sanctions and more detailed information. The company's commitment to ESG, coupled with strong fundamentals, supports a positive investment view, maintaining an Add rating.

Insurance Australia Group (ASX:IAG) recently provided a comprehensive business update, highlighting its 5-year strategy. This update maintains the medium-term targets, focusing on achieving a cash ROE of 12%-13%. In this analysis, we delve into key takeaways, emphasizing IAG's strategy, its drivers, and the scepticism surrounding certain targets.

Medium-Term Targets and Strategy

IAG's medium-term objectives remain consistent, targeting a cash ROE of 12%-13%, an insurance margin of 15%-17%, and a growth profile. The recent business update reaffirms the FY22 guidance, projecting a 10%-12% reported insurance margin and low single-digit GWP growth.

Key Drivers for Profitability Improvement

IAG outlined three primary drivers for expected profitability improvement in the medium term:

1. Customer Growth

IAG aims to add 1 million customers over the next 5 years. The major portion (750k) is anticipated from Direct Insurance Australia (DIA). Strategies include expanding the NRMA brand nationwide, targeting younger customer segments through the digital business 'Rollin,' and digitizing IAG’s small business offering.

2. Profit Improvement in IIA

Anticipated profit improvement in Intermediated Insurance Australia (IIA) is expected to reach A$250 million. This improvement is attributed to the remediation of the IAL personal lines portfolio, pricing enhancements, improved underwriting practices, and a reduction in the management expense ratio.

3. Other Productivity Improvements

Primarily focusing on claims improvements in DIA and NZ, IAG targets A$400 million of value improvement over 5 years. This includes enhancing claims efficiency, reducing wastage, streamlining processes, and consolidating suppliers.

Additional Insights

IAG aims to maintain a flat expense base over time (A$2.5 billion) with planned reductions in "maintenance" expenses offsetting higher costs tied to "transformation." The natural hazard allowance is expected to continue rising, and a capital return may be likely if Business Interruption court cases favour IAG.

Morgans Thoughts

While IAG's overall strategy appears logical, historical challenges in maintaining improved margins raise scepticism. The ability to grow customer numbers by 1 million is a key concern, especially considering recent losses in personal lines market share. Despite scepticism, there is acknowledgment of positive steps in executing plans in FY22.

Forecast and Investment Outlook

Earnings and valuation remain unchanged, considering IAG's challenging FY21 and the weather-affected FY22. The stock appears attractively priced at ~13x FY23F earnings, and the expectation of continuing insurance price increases, coupled with management’s performance improvement strategy, positions IAG for improved profitability over time. The ADD rating is maintained.