Investment Watch Summer 2025 Outlook
Investment Watch is a flagship product that brings together our analysts' view of economic and investment strategy themes, sector outlooks and best stock ideas for our clients.
Investment Watch is a quarterly publication produced by Morgans that delves into key insights for equity and economic strategy.
This latest publication covers
Economics – Recession fears behind us
Fixed Interest Opportunities – Alternative Income Strategies for 2025
Asset Allocation – Stay invested but reduce concentration risk
Equity Strategy – Diversification is key
Banks - Does current strength crimp medium-term returns?
Resources and Energy – Short-term headwinds remain
Industrials - Becoming more streamlined
Travel - Demand trends still solid
Consumer Discretionary - Rewards in time
Healthcare - Watching US policy direction
Infrastructure - Rising cost of capital but resilient operations
Property - Macro dominating but peak rates are on approach
At the start of 2024 investors faced a complex global landscape marked by inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainties. Yet, despite these challenges, global equity markets demonstrated remarkable resilience, finishing the year up an impressive 29% - a powerful reminder that long-term investors should stay focused on fundamental growth and not be deterred by short-term market volatility.
The global economic outlook for 2025 looks promising, driven by a confluence of positive factors. Central banks are proactively reducing interest rates, creating a favourable economic climate, while companies are strategically leveraging innovation and cost control to drive earnings growth.
Still, we remind investors to remain vigilant against a series of macro-economic risks that are likely to make for a bumpy ride, and as always, some asset classes will outperform others. That is why this extended version of Investment Watch includes our key themes and picks for 2025 and our best ideas. As always, speak to your adviser about asset classes and stocks that suit your investment goals.
High interest rates and cost-of-living pressures have been challenging and disruptive for so many of our clients, so from all the staff and management we appreciate your ongoing support as a valued client of our business. We wish you and your family a safe and happy festive season, and we look forward to sharing with you what we hope will be a prosperous 2025.
Morgans clients receive exclusive insights such as access to our latest Investment Watch publication. Contact us today to begin your journey with Morgans.
Raising children is one of the biggest expenses parents will incur and although in most cases the emotional rewards offset the costs, it is still a smart move to put money aside for when the bills roll in, to pay for the children’s education or simply to give them a good start later in life.
However, investing for children can be costly for the adult if he or she is not aware of how the investment is treated in relation to tax. Investing in a child's name can attract a tax liability of up to 66%.
In this update we discuss the more common issues surrounding investing for minors. (Note, we are not tax advisers and recommend specific tax advice is sought from a qualified accountant or tax agent before entering into any arrangement.)
Watch now
Children and tax rates
There are very few options to invest directly in a child’s name without being hit with a punishing tax bill. Child tax rates are designed to deter parents from sheltering income in their child’s name in order to reduce their own marginal tax rate.
Excepted persons and income
Not all children are subject to the punitive tax rates. There are several categories of minors who are referred to as excepted persons and are taxed at ordinary rates.
These include people:
- Who are working full-time, or who have worked for more than three months and are intending to work full-time;
- Entitled to a disability support pension or rehabilitation allowance; or someone entitled to a carers allowance to care for them;
- Permanently blind or disabled;
- Entitled to a double orphan pension;
- Unable to work full time because of a mental or physical disability.
Certain sources of income are also considered excepted and are taxed at ordinary rates, ie, as an adult would be taxed, or not taxed, whatever the case may be. This includes:
- Employment income;
- Compensation, superannuation or pension benefits;
- Income from a deceased estate;
- Lottery winnings;
- Income from a business or partnership;
- Income from a property transferred to the minor as a result of the death of another person, family breakdown or to satisfy a claim for damages for an injury they suffered.
Tip
A common strategy is to establish a testamentary trust to hold assets and distribute income to minor children who have inherited monies from a deceased estate.
The primary reason being that income distributed from a testamentary trust is taxed at adult marginal tax rates, rather than the penalty rates applicable to minors.
Consider, however, that income derived from the direct investment of capital proceeds received via a deceased estate also receives the same taxation treatment, i.e. taxed at adult marginal tax rates.
This may be a simpler and cheaper alternative to establishing a testamentary trust as the tax outcome is the same.
Ownership of the investment
In most instances, it is generally more effective for the investment to be in the name of the person putting the money forward, such as a parent or grandparent (as trustee for that child).
This is due to the fact minors are generally prohibited from entering into legally binding contracts and ownership arrangements.
As a result, where money is deposited into a bank account or other investment for a child, it is not unusual for an adult parent/guardian to act as a trustee on the child’s behalf.
For example, the parent of Tommy Smith is Bill Smith. The investment may appear in this name: Mr Bill Smith <Tommy Smith a/c>. It is important to note that this is not a formal legal structure. Bill Smith is the legal owner of the asset.
This type of informal trustee arrangement does not generally involve the establishment of a formal trust deed or other legal document.
A formal trust can be established for the child (or a larger family group) but this involves significant establishment and ongoing legal and financial costs.
These can be warranted when the assets are of reasonable value and income from them may take a child into the highest marginal tax rate.
Advice and assistance on the establishment of any trust structure should be sought from a solicitor or accountant qualified in this area.
Tax File Number
If a Tax File Number (TFN) is not provided at the time of investing, tax at the top marginal tax rate (47%) can be withheld from investment earnings (excluding franked dividends). The question is, whose TFN should be quoted?
If the investment is established in the child's name then it is the child's TFN that is quoted to the financial institution or share registry (a child can get a TFN at any age).
If the investment is in the name of an adult as trustee for the child (as an informal trust arrangement) then the adult will quote their TFN.
If the investment is via a formal trust for the child, then it is the trust's TFN that is quoted (e.g. if held in a testamentary trust).
Ownership and tax issues
If it is established the adult ultimately owns the investment then instead of attracting minor penalty rates, earnings on the investment will be included in the adult's assessable income and taxed at his or her marginal tax rate.
If the adult is a grandparent, this may affect their eligibility for concessions such as the Senior Australians Tax Offset or the Low-income Tax Offset. It may also affect their Medicare levy payable.
If the grandparent is receiving Centrelink benefits there may be adverse implications as the investment could be asset tested and deemed.
Later on when the asset is to be transferred into the child’s name there may be gifting and capital gains tax issues, depending on the ownership situation. To help clarify ownership issues, the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) has provided some specific guidance on this issue on the ATO website.
The advice in the ATO's fact sheet "Children's share investments" rests mostly on the consideration of who rightfully owns and controls the investment (in this case, shares) and who benefits from any income generated from them.
The ATO offers this caution: "If there are large amounts of money or a regular turnover, you might need to examine the ownership of the shares further. You might need more information to work out who should declare the dividends."
A final word on the issue of tax and ownership issues, if there is a condition placed on the investment – that is, the child will only benefit from the investment if they meet a specified condition e.g. passing senior, attending university, buying a car – then ownership could rest with the adult for tax purposes.
This is because if the condition is not met by the child, then it is assumed the adult will retain ownership of the investment.
Strategies for adults considering investing for minors
Consider whether it is likely that the child's investment will generate income above the tax-free limit consistently over the life of the investment.
If the answer is no, then you should consider treating the income as belonging to the child. However, be careful to ensure all income generated from the investments is used only for the benefit of the child and the easiest way to show this is to reinvest it.
If you do withdraw it and use it for the child’s needs (education or otherwise) keep very good records to account for this use.
If the answer is yes, you should consider using a trustee with a low tax rate or use an investment vehicle like a trust or insurance/education bond or warrant.
The value of dollar-cost averaging
It is common for parents or their relatives to offer gifts to children in the form of an investment. This could be by way of a lump sum investment on behalf of the child or a regular savings facility, which can be drawn from at any given point in the future.
A regular savings facility includes the benefit of dollar-cost averaging – that is, the benefit of purchasing investment units at differing prices. The regular investment purchases less units when prices are high and more units when prices are low.
By averaging the unit price paid, the investment cost is reduced. Speak to your adviser for more information on regular savings facilities.
If you need more guidance on where to start when investing in your children's future, talk to your Morgans adviser or contact your nearest Morgans office.
- Heading into February results, we examine key strategic themes across earnings trends, the cyclicals rotation, yield security, rising AUD impacts and resources.
- In our Reporting Season Playbook (accessible by Morgans clients) our analysts preview the results for 184 stocks under coverage that report this February, calling out potential surprise and disappoint candidates.
- Key tactical trades into results include Sonic Healthcare, NextDC, Origin, Zip Co, Eagers Automotive, and Virtus.
Dampened expectations leave room for upside surprise
Investors have a lot to feel optimistic about as the economy continues to defy expectations (our chief economist Michael Knox is calling for a sharp V-shaped recovery) but analysts’ earnings and dividend forecasts are yet to capitalise the recent good form.
We think there is a risk of surprise in company results that have significant leverage to the recovery.
Domestic cyclicals outperforming overly fearful market expectations was a dominant theme in August and analyst previews of the 184 stocks under Morgans coverage suggest this trend will continue in February.
Our analysts expect that 28% of stocks covered have reason to respond positively to February results.
Various moving parts requires careful portfolio positioning
Investors need to position tactically into February results. Overall, we expect outlook commentary to be better than what was provided in August and we think the outlook for dividends has improved markedly.
But while the recent good form in the economy will benefit segments of the market (retailers, banks, resources), elevated valuations and currency headwinds will temper the performance of others (healthcare, offshore industrials/fintech).
We discuss key strategic questions:
- Can cyclicals deliver expected EPS upside surprise?
- Where’s the best source of secure yield?
- Will currency moves complicate the FY21 earnings picture?
- Do recovery expectations match reality?
- Does the resources rally have further to run?
Commodities/resources upside
An overweight exposure to resources shapes as one of the strongest sector allocation ideas for 2021.
Commodities tailwinds include improving post-COVID GDP growth, ongoing central bank stimulus, tight supply, and the weaker US dollar.
The best opportunities in the sector are in lagging energy and gold sectors.
Best tactical calls heading into results
In our Reporting Season Playbook, our research team previews expectations for 184 stocks reporting in February, including 52 where we expect positive price reactions, and 11 where we expect negative reactions.
We also profile the best looking tactical buys and notable stocks to avoid/trim. In this list we prefer larger stocks and those that overlap with the Morgans Best Ideas and the Morgans Equity Model Portfolios.
Morgans clients receive access to detailed market analysis and insights, provided by our award-winning research team. Begin your journey with Morgans today to view the exclusive coverage.
Every day, you’ll read stories about people who’ve struck it rich (or simply got lucky) by taking a punt on the latest hot opportunity. It might be a stock that’s tripled in value, or the latest digital currency that’s being heavily promoted online.
It doesn’t matter which; all you know is that somewhere, somebody’s making a stack of money, and it’s not you.
You might even think you’re missing out, particularly if your investments are still recovering from the downturn last year.
You could be tempted to throw caution to the wind, and have a dabble in something hot.
Let’s just pause for a moment, and consider the difference between speculating and investing. One way to describe speculating is taking big risks, hoping you’ll get a big payoff.
That’s not what investing is about. Investing is about managing risks, not embracing them.
Manage the risk
One of the best ways of reducing investment risk is to spread your portfolio across a number of different investments, and types of investments.
It's the old 'don’t put all your eggs in one basket' theory, and it’s stood the test of time as an important way of smoothing investment returns and reducing risk.
The main investment classes – cash, fixed interest, property and shares – all carry different levels of risk, and all have provided different returns over time.
Historically, shares have been the best performer. But those returns have varied from a 30% gain in a good year, to a 50% loss in a bad year.
And nobody can predict which types of investments will perform best in the future.
At the other end of the spectrum, cash is safe (and there’s a government guarantee on bank deposits of up to $250,000).
But the return? In most accounts, it’s close to zero. If you take into account inflation, your bank return can actually be negative. If you hedge your bets, and spread your portfolio across cash, fixed interest, shares and property, there’s the potential for losses in one class of investment to be offset by gains in another.
You won’t get the peak returns of the share market in a boom year, but neither will you experience large losses.
Overall, your risk is lower, and your returns will be more consistent.
What is strategic asset allocation?
Strategic asset allocation is the process of choosing the mix of investment types that will meet your investment objectives, while minimising risk. And the best asset mix for you will depend on your investment timeframe, and how comfortable you are with risk.
There’s no one fixed asset allocation – it will vary between individuals.
A younger investor hoping to build wealth for the future might be comfortable with a high exposure to shares.
Somebody approaching retirement might be more cautious and balance their exposure to shares with higher levels of cash and fixed interest.
Setting a target asset allocation adds some discipline to your investment strategy.
It means sticking to a process that will optimise your returns, rather than chasing the hot opportunities that could make you rich (or broke).
Rebalance your portfolio annually
Just as there's no thing as a 'set and forget' investment, your asset allocation needs some attention from time to time.
At least annually, you should consider 'rebalancing' your portfolio. In any year, some of your investments will perform better than others.
Let’s suppose your original allocation to shares was 40% and the market has a good year. You might find shares now make up 50% of your portfolio. Rebalancing involves reducing your exposure to shares back to 40%.
In other words, you’re taking profits from assets that have performed well, and topping up your other investments.
Is your current asset allocation right for you?
If you’re not sure whether your current asset allocation is right for you, or you think it might need rebalancing, talk to your Morgans adviser or contact nearest Morgans office.
The Australian Government has completed a review of the retirement income system to assess how it will perform in the future as Australians live longer and the population ages.
The review, which was commissioned following a recommendation by the Productivity Commission, was not asked to make recommendations or propose changes to policy settings. However, it did uncover evidence that many aspects of the system need improved understanding.
Key observations and overview
The need to improve understanding of the system
- Dealing with complexity. Complexity and uncertainty, a lack of financial advice and guidance, and low levels of financial literacy are impeding people from understanding the system. As a result, some people fail to adequately plan for retirement and make poor decisions about how to use their savings in retirement.
- The nature of retirement income. Most people die with the bulk of the wealth they had at retirement intact. It appears they see superannuation as mainly about accumulating capital and living off the return on this capital, rather than as an asset they can draw down to support their standard of living in retirement. The family home is an underutilised source to support living standards in retirement.
- The nature of retirement. The nature of retirement has changed. For many, the transition from full time work to permanent retirement is gradual rather than abrupt. Some people retire more than once, others are involuntarily retired. There is no mandatory retirement age for most workers.
- The objective of the system. The retirement income system lacks an agreed objective. Differing views on the appropriate level of the Superannuation Guarantee (SG) rate stem from different views about the system's objective.
- Role of the pillars. The ‘pillars’ of the retirement income system are commonly seen as being the Age Pension, compulsory superannuation, and voluntary saving (including housing). Some see housing as a separate pillar.
- Dealing with diversity. The retirement income system covers people in very different circumstances: different incomes, time in the workforce, employment situation, capacity to save, home ownership status, risk preferences, financial literacy, partnership status and life events. While the system may provide adequate retirement incomes for many Australians, there is uncertainty about if and how it can compensate for those who may fall short, such as women, lower income renters, individuals not covered by the SG, involuntary retirees, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and those with disability.
Source: The Australian Government – The Treasury.
What does this mean for you?
This review has identified the need for greater financial advice for consumers, particularly when it comes to retirement planning, to help people understand the complex laws and regulations that are already in place.
Without this financial advice from qualified financial planners, you might be missing out on maximising your retirement potential.
Speak to one of our qualified Morgans advisers today to define your own retirement journey.
The A2 Milk Company (ASX:A2M) recently conducted its Annual General Meeting (AGM), maintaining its guidance amidst a backdrop of uncertainty. While the need for a significant 2H21 improvement is acknowledged, positive signs of recovery in corporate daigou demand and improvements in daigou channel inventory offer a glimmer of hope.
Revised Forecast and Investment Outlook
Forecast Adjustments
In response to prevailing uncertainties, our forecasts have been recalibrated. Despite A2M's guidance, we've adjusted our FY21 EBITDA forecast approximately 4% below the lower end of its guidance range, reflecting a cautious stance.
Investment Recommendation
Despite the prevailing uncertainty, we maintain an Add rating for A2M. While near-term earnings uncertainty may exert pressure on the company's share price, we remain optimistic about its medium to long-term prospects.
Maintained Guidance with Qualifications
Overview of 1H21 and FY21 Guidance
A2M has upheld its 1H21 and FY21 guidance as previously stated. 1H21 revenue is anticipated to be NZ$725-775 million, showing a decline of 4-10% compared to 1H20. FY21 revenue guidance stands at NZ$1.8-1.9 billion, with an EBITDA margin of approximately 31%, translating to EBITDA of NZ$558-589 million.
Dependency on 2H21 Improvement
Acknowledging the uncertain forecast, A2M stresses the necessity of substantial improvement in 2H21 (16-22% revenue growth compared to 2H20). This period's performance hinges on critical factors such as the daigou channel's improvement and sustained growth in China labeled products through the MBS channel.
Regional Updates
ANZ Region
A2M underscores the challenging trading conditions in 1H21, particularly due to the contraction in the daigou/reseller channel, exacerbated by Victoria's Stage 4 restrictions. However, recent weeks have shown initial signs of recovery in the corporate daigou, following the launch of incentive programs and the relaxation of lockdown measures in Victoria.
Asia Region
Sales growth in the MBS segment remains robust, driven by an expanded distribution footprint and increased sales velocities. The company's performance during the 11/11 sales event met expectations, with notable increases in English label IF sales volume.
North America Region
A reduction in FY21 EBITDA loss compared to FY20 is anticipated, aligning with previous forecasts.
Forecast Adjustments
Considering the uncertain 2H21 recovery, our revised forecasts stand below the guidance, projecting revenue of NZ$1,731 million and EBITDA of NZ$537 million for FY21.
Navigating Uncertainties Towards Growth
While uncertainties linger, A2M's comments on the improving daigou channel inventory offer a ray of hope. We view the current challenges as transitory, with A2M's robust balance sheet and quality growth trajectory underpinning our confidence in its long-term potential.
Morgans clients receive access to detailed market analysis and insights, provided by our award-winning research team. Begin your journey with Morgans today to view the exclusive coverage.
It seems Australians have been thinking more and more about the benefits of self-managed super funds (SMSFs) as they express concerns about their existing super fund in relation to transparency, liquidity and flexibility.
Despite the control, involvement and flexibility an SMSF can provide, there are a few things people need to consider before deciding if an SMSF is right for them.
Ask yourself the following questions:
- Is the fund strictly for benefits in retirement?
- Do you have the time to manage your own fund?
- Will the benefit be worth the cost?
- How will switching to your own SMSF affect your current superannuation benefits?
Having your own super fund to manage may sound easy. However, as you are the trustee of your own fund you are ultimately responsible for every decision you make. You need to understand there are some things you simply cannot do within your SMSF.
The regulator, the Australian Tax Office, will apply heavy penalties against trustees who break the law.
Watch
How much is enough?
This has been a hotly debated issue since the inception of SMSFs. Different people have different ideas as to exactly how much is needed to set up an SMSF. ASIC has recommended at least $500,000 for an SMSF.
It can be argued that people with less than this could easily manage their own SMSF, particularly if they are planning to make large contributions over time and/or have experience with investing.
The issue, of course, is cost. To remain cost effective it is generally accepted that the greater amount of funds pooled within the SMSF, the lower the cost average. Over the long term, as the SMSF account balance grows, the cost of running the fund becomes even more efficient.
# Paul and Mary are using a Corporate Trustee structure, which means an additional $455 ASIC fee. Bill and Ellie are using an Individual Trustee structure, so the only cost is the SMSF Trust Deed. * The ongoing company fee is a reduced ASIC fee because Paul and Mary are using a shelf company as the corporate trustee, and not an existing company. A shelf company acts as the corporate trustee only and is not associated to any other entity activities. ^ Administration fees charged by Morgans Wealth+ SMSF Solutions service and includes annual audit fee. This is an indicative cost only as the actual fee will depend on the administration/accountant service used. ** Ongoing portfolio fee - estimated average Morgans' Wealth+ fee
Size does matter
In relation to costs, clearly size does matter. There is a significant difference in the ongoing costs for Bill and Ellie compared to Paul and Mary. Even where Paul and Mary incur additional costs due to the corporate trustee structure, their average costs are less than half Bill and Ellie's.
If you would like to discuss whether a self-managed super fund is for you, or you would like to know more about what is involved in running your own SMSF contact your local Morgans office, or speak to your Morgans adviser.