Investment Watch Autumn 2025 Outlook
Investment Watch is a quarterly publication for insights in equity and economic strategy. US President Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs have rattled global markets. Since the pronouncement, most global indices have been down by over 10%.
Investment Watch is a quarterly publication produced by Morgans that delves into key insights for equity and economic strategy.
This publication covers
Economics - Tariffs and uncertainty: Charting a course in global trade
Asset Allocation - Look beyond the usual places for alpha
Equity Strategy - Broadening our portfolio exposure
Fixed Interest - A step forward for corporate bond reform
Banks - Post results season volatility
Industrials - Volatility creates opportunities
Resources and Energy - Trade war blunts near term sentiment
Technology - Opportunities emerging
Consumer discretionary - Encouraging medium-term signs
Telco - A cautious eye on competitive intensity
Travel - Demand trends still solid
Property - An improving Cycle
US President Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs have rattled global markets. Since the pronouncement, most global indices have been down by over 10%. The scope and magnitude of the tariffs are more severe than we, and the market, expected. These are emotional times for investors, but for those with a long-term perspective, we believe short-term market volatility is a distraction that is better off ignored.
While the market could be in for a bumpy ride over the next few months, patience, a well-thought-out strategy, and the ability to look through market turbulence are key to unlocking performance during such unusual times. This quarter, we cover the economic implications of the announced tariffs and how this shapes our asset allocation decisions. We also provide an outlook for the key sectors of the Australian market and where we see the best tactical opportunities.
Morgans clients receive exclusive insights such as access to our latest Investment Watch publication. Contact us today to begin your journey with Morgans.

We all want the very best for our children. We know that a good education not only provides them with qualifications it also provides them with opportunities. Knowing they were given every possible chance to express themselves and learn is probably the best gift you can give a child or grandchild.
We also know that a good education can be expensive.
What education savings choices do you have to ensure your “investment” does not become a financial burden? We list three options below:
- Australian share investment
- Managed funds / Listed investment companies (LICs)
- Investment bonds - Insurance bonds & friendly society bonds
Listed Australian Shares
Investment in Australian shares, which pay fully franked dividends, is one option. Imputation credits currently provide a rebate of 30 cents in the dollar which means you pay less tax on your dividend income.
Shares are one of the highest performing investment sectors over the longer term; that is, five or more years, which is the typical time frame most people are considering for education funding.
It is important to note that children under the age of 18 are by law not able to enter into a contract. Therefore, in most circumstances the account is opened in the adult's name (i.e. one or both parents, or grandparents) as trustee for the child or children.
This is generally known as an "informal trust". From a tax perspective, it is important you seek professional tax advice to determine which type of ownership will provide the most tax-effective outcome for you and your child.
This is because the trustee, or parent/guardian, could be liable for income and capital gains tax liabilities as a result of presumed ownership.
The other drawback with investing in direct holdings is that you can't establish a regular "top up" scheme, or savings plan; unless you invest via a company’s Dividend Reinvestment Plan, if available.
Considering most initial amounts gifted to children are fairly modest it is hard to achieve cost-effective diversification without at least $50,000 to invest.
So placing small amounts in a choice of one or two or three companies leaves you exposed to a higher risk if one or more of these investments fails or underperforms.
Managed funds / Listed investment companies (LICs) / ETFs
To overcome the issue of diversification many advisers suggest using a managed vehicle for children's investments. An unlisted managed fund or a listed investment company (LIC) are popular choices.
The advantage for both of these types of investments is that a manager makes all investment decisions for the investor and handles all administration matters (including detailed taxation statements).
Managed funds
Managed funds are a useful investment tool because you can establish an effective regular savings scheme; starting with a modest sum, typically $1,000, and investing as little as $100 on a regular monthly basis.
This approach also takes advantage of the dollar-cost averaging principle to reduce the market timing risk associated with investing in growth investments such as shares.
From a tax perspective actively managed share funds do tend to deliver realised capital gains on a regular basis although this is probably less critical under the current capital gains tax regime.
For investments held for more than 12 months only 50% of any realised capital gain is added to your taxable income and taxed at your marginal tax rate.
LICs
LICs often show more transparent value than a managed fund. An investor can see this value in the listed share price whereas a managed fund has a more complicated buy and sell "spread" value and a longer redemption period when withdrawing funds.
LIC annual management fees can also be lower than annual managed fund fees. Unfortunately, as with listed shares, LICs do not offer regular savings schemes.
ETFs
Exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, are becoming more popular and like LICs, provide the investor with an opportunity to access various markets with a smaller amount of money. ETFs are investment vehicles that provide exposure to a basket of shares, listed property, commodities or currencies.
They have a slight advantage over LICs in that they can be bought and sold for close to the value of the underlying asset (i.e. index).
This usually results in the ETF price very closely matching the performance of the index.
If the ETF’s underlying assets produces income, investors will receive regular income distributions. ETFs pass on this income untaxed and franking credits are also passed through.
Management fees are quite low compared to managed funds, ranging from as little as 0.15% to 0.8% for some international share offerings.
Investment bonds (Insurance bonds & friendly society bonds)
Investment bonds can be a useful vehicle when saving for education purposes. With many investments such as shares and unit trusts, responsibility for the payment of tax is passed on to the investor.
This means any profits or losses you make must be included in your annual tax return for the year in which you earn them. With investment bonds, earnings are retained within the investment funds and tax is paid by the provider.
Investors do not need to declare any income on their tax return until a withdrawal is made. If the investment is held for 10 years or more, there is no additional tax to pay. If funds are withdrawn before 10 years, the investor will receive a rebate which can be used to offset additional tax payable.
For this reason, investment bonds are a popular choice for education savings. Specific education savings funds are available, modelled via the investment bond structure, although provider choice is limited.
Education savings bonds are particularly designed for education expenses; however, some providers allow flexibility to use the bond for non-education expenses.
They are often cheaper than other alternatives, particularly where investments are restricted to cash or fixed interest. They can also be quite inflexible if your need for these funds change, so any decision to use them should be carefully considered.
Tax is paid by the bond provider at the rate of 30%. However, the actual tax rate can be lower due to franking credits if the fund invests in listed equities.
Tax benefits can be enhanced further for education related expenses as the tax is claimed back by the provider from the ATO and is included in withdrawal proceeds to the student.
Summary of education funding options
The investment option you choose, should best match your investment objectives and risk profile.
Tax may also play an important role when deciding which investment strategy to use. In that regard, it is important you seek qualified tax advice before implementing your strategy.
Contact your Morgans adviser or nearest Morgans office for more information.

In its latest 3Q21 trading update, Zip Co (ASX:Z1P) demonstrated yet another strong quarter, with group revenue, merchants, and customers all experiencing a substantial 10%-20% increase on the previous quarter, showcasing consistent growth trends.
Quadpay's Standout Performance
Quadpay, Zip Co's US-based business, emerged as the star performer, exhibiting impressive sequential growth in revenue, transactions, and customers. With an annualized transaction volume reaching US$2.8bn, Quadpay's resilience stood out in the seasonally weakest quarter.
Credit Quality and Global Expansion
Maintaining sound credit quality, Zip Co's net bad debts reduced from 1.93% to 1.78%, underscoring a healthy global merchant pipeline. The company is making strategic strides in global expansion, with initial merchant signings in the UK, a soft launch in Canada, and strategic investments in BNPL players in South East Asia and Eastern Europe.
Performance Analysis
Dominance in the US Market
In what is typically its weakest quarter, Zip Co's Quadpay reported impressive sequential growth, with substantial increases in revenue (+16%), transactions (+7%), and customers (+19%). Quadpay's merchant base witnessed a remarkable 55% sequential growth.
Solid Results in ANZ
Zip Co's results in the Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) region, while meeting expectations, revealed a 61% year-on-year increase in transaction volume. However, the sequential decline of 8% aligned with seasonal trends.
Forecasts and Outlook
Minor adjustments to sales and profit margin forecasts led to a modest 2%-4% downgrade in Zip Co's FY21F/FY22F earnings per share (EPS).
Investment View
Despite the adjustment, Zip Co continues to execute well, delivering strong growth metrics across the board. The company's ambitions to become a global payments player position it for long-term upside, especially considering its significant discount to Afterpay Ltd (ASX:APT) in the EV-to-sales multiple.
This comprehensive performance overview reinforces Zip Co's resilience and strategic positioning in the dynamic buy now, pay later (BNPL) landscape.

Is it better to invest directly into listed securities or into unlisted managed funds? There is no correct answer as it depends on your personal investment needs and objectives and, importantly, which strategy you are comfortable with.
The benefits of investing in shares
Why are shares so popular?
- Shares have historically outperformed all other assets classes over the long term.
- Shares can provide long-term capital growth.
- Shares can provide a strong and growing income stream.
- Tax benefits might be available via franked dividends.
What can change?
Change has been a major component across investment markets over the last 50-odd years. From the 'Black Monday' crash in 1987, to 18% interest rates in the late 80’s and early 90’s, through to the 1997 Asian crisis, the tech and internet stock boom and bust in 2000, and of course who could forget the GFC in 2008.
More recently, of course, investors are experiencing the impact of Coronavirus. In this respect, COVID-19 has had an impact on life in general, not just investment markets, which makes its disruption extraordinary.
Key points to remember
The market has never failed to rise above its previous high following a major correction. Shares are often considered risky due to potential short-term performance volatility. Over the long term, however, shares have provided consistent investment returns.
Shares are often considered risky due to potential short-term performance volatility. Over the long term however, shares have provided consistent investment returns.
Chart 1: Australian Shares (ASX200) vs Cash (90 day BB) : June 2000 to Feb 2021

Dividend yield & imputation credits
Many dividends paid to shareholders include 'imputation credits'. The imputation credit and resulting tax benefit available from the dividends means the actual return from a stock needs to be "grossed up" to reflect its true value.
A common mistake investors make is to compare bank rates with dividend yields. The cash rate is fully assessable whereas the dividend yield includes the imputation credits, so this tax concession should be taken into account. A 5% dividend yield would provide a similar return to a 7% bank rate.
Other tax issues
In addition to tax benefits arising from franked dividends, investors must also consider capital gains and/or losses and the tax implications as a result of investment decisions.
By investing directly into listed securities, it is the investor who controls the tax consequences of that investment.
That is, investments are bought and sold at the investor's discretion rather than at the discretion of a fund manager. Capital gains and losses can be managed to suit the investor's tax position.
In contrast, fund managers will usually turn over stocks within their investment portfolios (particularly Australian Equity funds) on a regular basis.
Distributions from managed funds include realised and unrealised capital gains or losses as a result of the higher level of trading, and is displayed as 'total return' . The investor has no control over the tax management of these distributions.
The resultant outcome generally means the investor has an unwanted or inconvenient tax consequence at the end of the financial year, which could have an impact on their overall tax position.
This lack of control is an influential factor that pushes investors to favour direct share investing over managed funds.
Access
One of the key advantages of investing in direct shares is the flexibility and liquidity it provides.
The ASX provides an environment for Australian investors to easily purchase or sell shares, or rebalance portfolios, in a timely and cost-effective manner.
The benefits of investing in managed funds
A managed investment combines an individual investor's money with the money of thousands of other investors to form an investment fund. Specialist investment managers then invest the pooled money on investors' behalf.
Benefits of managed funds
- Trained investment specialists: Constantly research and monitor investment markets to determine the best possible investment opportunities.
- Convenient and efficient: Paperwork and administration, regular information on the fund’s performance, annual tax statements and tax guides.
- Diversification: A truly diversified portfolio can be difficult for a direct investor to achieve. Managed investments make diversification easier.
Structure
Most managed funds are structured as unit trusts. When invested into the fund the investor's money buys units in that fund.
The unit price reflects the value of the fund's investments. If the value of the fund's investments rise, the unit price also rises. Conversely, if the value of the fund's investments falls, the unit price also falls.
Access
Managed funds provide access to investments in assets normally not available to individual investors (e.g. international emerging markets). Investing internationally via managed funds can provide greater diversification and investment opportunities compared to investing only in the Australian sharemarket.
The redemption process for managed funds is not as timely as it is with selling listed shares.
Fund managers must value all their assets at the prevailing market price. Depending on the unit price at the time of redemption an investor may be forced to sell a higher number of units to achieve a specific dollar value.
This means the portfolio's overall investment value is affected as there are less units remaining in the fund.
Dollar cost averaging via regular savings and compound growth
Investing in managed funds allows an investor to effectively reduce their investment cost (or capital) by dollar cost averaging.
Dollar cost averaging is simply purchasing investment units at differing prices on a regular basis (usually via a regular savings plan), which then reduces, or averages, the overall cost base of the investment unit.
This can help minimise potential capital gains tax when the units are eventually sold. Re-investing fund distributions into additional units provides a 'compound interest multiplier' effect.
That is, your investment capital benefits from the effects of compound growth as the distributions from your investment earn interest.
Diversification
Diversification of an investment portfolio across all asset classes allows an investor to 'hedge their bets'. By spreading the exposure and investing in different assets an investor can create a portfolio that can minimise to some degree the losses that may occur in one asset sector with gains in another.
The overall effect is that volatility is moderated, and investment returns can smooth out over time.
Investing in managed funds allows the investor to diversify funds over a basket of assets that may otherwise not be accessible. This is a key strength of funds as investors can spread their investments across a range of asset classes rather than having exposure to just one class.

The 'fee' factor
Having a team of specialist investment managers comes at a cost, as does the benefit of having an effective administration and reporting system. Fund managers can charge entry, exit, ongoing management and even performance fees.
Index fund managers traditionally charge lower fees than active fund managers as they have lower portfolio management costs. Retail funds are more expensive than wholesale funds, typically charging between 1-1.50% pa more.
An investor can access the cheaper wholesale funds, however, they must either have a larger initial investment (generally, from $20,000 up to $500,000), or they can invest via a platform (wrap) structure, which then charges its own administration fee.
It is this level of cost and complexity of fees that turn many investors away from investing in managed funds. Additionally, the level of fees charged by a fund manager can have a significant impact on the overall return of the investment, particularly over the long term.
So that like-for-like performance comparisons can reasonably be made between different funds, fund managers are required to display performance data as after-tax returns or 'net of fees'.
In conclusion
Regardless of preference, the winner here is the investor who can choose to invest in a manner that best suits his or her needs.
Whether direct investing is the preference or indirectly via a managed fund, the investor can decide based on their investment goals. A combination of both may be preferable so that the investor can fully appreciate the benefits of each strategy.
Understanding what you are investing in and why is the most important factor of all for any investor, regardless of how.

In the realm of financial analysis, Zip Co (ASX:Z1P) has recently disclosed its 1H21 financial results, stirring interest among investors and analysts. While the reported NPAT loss of approximately A$453 million reflects various one-off items, including a net revaluation of Quadpay (-A$306m) and performance shares issued due to met hurdles (~-A$64m), a deeper dive reveals an underlying loss of ~A$114 million, surpassing previous estimates due to increased expenses (-A$30m).
Strong Momentum in the US Market
Despite these financial intricacies, Zip Co's strategic investments to foster growth have exceeded expectations. Notably, the company is gaining significant traction in the United States market, indicating a promising trajectory.
Key Highlights and Achievements
Positive Developments
- Revenue Growth: Revenue stood at A$160 million (+131%), driven by robust year-over-year (yoy) Total Transaction Value (TTV) growth of 141% to ~A$2.3 billion.
- Effective Risk Management: Net bad debts were well-contained at 1.93%, down from 2.24% in the prior corresponding period (pcp).
- Operational Milestones: Australia remains cash Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBTDA) positive, achieving Cash EBTDA breakeven.
- Expansion Initiatives: Zip Co's entry into the UK market, accompanied by collaborations with prominent brands, signals a promising market entry strategy.
Quadpay Performance
- Rapid Growth: Quadpay witnessed rapid growth in 1H21, with TTV reaching A$973 million and customer base expanding to 3.2 million, both reflecting over 200% growth compared to the pcp.
- Capital Efficiency: The net transaction margin for Quadpay remains above 2%, contributing to enhanced group capital efficiency and improved revenue yield.
Australian Market Dominance
- Market Leadership: Zip Co's BNPL app emerged as Australia's most downloaded app in December 2020 and January 2021, underscoring its dominance in the domestic market.
- Robust Growth Metrics: Key performance metrics such as revenue and customer base witnessed substantial growth, ranging between 40% to 60% for the half-year period.
Areas of Concern
- Increased Marketing Costs: Marketing expenses surged over fourfold (~A$26m compared to A$6m in the pcp), attributed to Quadpay integration, product launches (e.g., Tap and Zip), and heightened brand activities.
- Leverage Compression: Zip Co's high growth phase may lead to near-term compression in its cash EBITDA performance, evident in the 1H21 figure of A$0.2 million.
Revised Forecasts and Investment Strategy
Considering the evolving landscape, adjustments to forecasts are imperative. The FY21F/FY22F EPS is revised downwards by over 50% to account for current-year one-offs and increased investment across forecasted periods. Furthermore, a transition from a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation to a blended DCF/Price-to-Sales (PS) methodology has been made, resulting in a revised price target.
Navigating Towards Global Payments Leadership
Despite the challenges and adjustments, Zip Co maintains a significant PS discount compared to Afterpay (APT), indicating substantial growth potential. As the company continues to execute its strategy towards becoming a global payments leader, investors remain optimistic about its future prospects. With a strong foothold in the Australian market and promising growth trajectories in the US and UK markets, Zip Co stands poised for further expansion and market dominance in the evolving landscape of Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) services.
Morgans clients receive access to detailed market analysis and insights, provided by our award-winning research team. Begin your journey with Morgans today to view the exclusive coverage.

Raising children is one of the biggest expenses parents will incur and although in most cases the emotional rewards offset the costs, it is still a smart move to put money aside for when the bills roll in, to pay for the children’s education or simply to give them a good start later in life.
However, investing for children can be costly for the adult if he or she is not aware of how the investment is treated in relation to tax. Investing in a child's name can attract a tax liability of up to 66%.
In this update we discuss the more common issues surrounding investing for minors. (Note, we are not tax advisers and recommend specific tax advice is sought from a qualified accountant or tax agent before entering into any arrangement.)
Watch now
Children and tax rates
There are very few options to invest directly in a child’s name without being hit with a punishing tax bill. Child tax rates are designed to deter parents from sheltering income in their child’s name in order to reduce their own marginal tax rate.
Excepted persons and income
Not all children are subject to the punitive tax rates. There are several categories of minors who are referred to as excepted persons and are taxed at ordinary rates.
These include people:
- Who are working full-time, or who have worked for more than three months and are intending to work full-time;
- Entitled to a disability support pension or rehabilitation allowance; or someone entitled to a carers allowance to care for them;
- Permanently blind or disabled;
- Entitled to a double orphan pension;
- Unable to work full time because of a mental or physical disability.
Certain sources of income are also considered excepted and are taxed at ordinary rates, ie, as an adult would be taxed, or not taxed, whatever the case may be. This includes:
- Employment income;
- Compensation, superannuation or pension benefits;
- Income from a deceased estate;
- Lottery winnings;
- Income from a business or partnership;
- Income from a property transferred to the minor as a result of the death of another person, family breakdown or to satisfy a claim for damages for an injury they suffered.
Tip
A common strategy is to establish a testamentary trust to hold assets and distribute income to minor children who have inherited monies from a deceased estate.
The primary reason being that income distributed from a testamentary trust is taxed at adult marginal tax rates, rather than the penalty rates applicable to minors.
Consider, however, that income derived from the direct investment of capital proceeds received via a deceased estate also receives the same taxation treatment, i.e. taxed at adult marginal tax rates.
This may be a simpler and cheaper alternative to establishing a testamentary trust as the tax outcome is the same.
Ownership of the investment
In most instances, it is generally more effective for the investment to be in the name of the person putting the money forward, such as a parent or grandparent (as trustee for that child).
This is due to the fact minors are generally prohibited from entering into legally binding contracts and ownership arrangements.
As a result, where money is deposited into a bank account or other investment for a child, it is not unusual for an adult parent/guardian to act as a trustee on the child’s behalf.
For example, the parent of Tommy Smith is Bill Smith. The investment may appear in this name: Mr Bill Smith <Tommy Smith a/c>. It is important to note that this is not a formal legal structure. Bill Smith is the legal owner of the asset.
This type of informal trustee arrangement does not generally involve the establishment of a formal trust deed or other legal document.
A formal trust can be established for the child (or a larger family group) but this involves significant establishment and ongoing legal and financial costs.
These can be warranted when the assets are of reasonable value and income from them may take a child into the highest marginal tax rate.
Advice and assistance on the establishment of any trust structure should be sought from a solicitor or accountant qualified in this area.
Tax File Number
If a Tax File Number (TFN) is not provided at the time of investing, tax at the top marginal tax rate (47%) can be withheld from investment earnings (excluding franked dividends). The question is, whose TFN should be quoted?
If the investment is established in the child's name then it is the child's TFN that is quoted to the financial institution or share registry (a child can get a TFN at any age).
If the investment is in the name of an adult as trustee for the child (as an informal trust arrangement) then the adult will quote their TFN.
If the investment is via a formal trust for the child, then it is the trust's TFN that is quoted (e.g. if held in a testamentary trust).
Ownership and tax issues
If it is established the adult ultimately owns the investment then instead of attracting minor penalty rates, earnings on the investment will be included in the adult's assessable income and taxed at his or her marginal tax rate.
If the adult is a grandparent, this may affect their eligibility for concessions such as the Senior Australians Tax Offset or the Low-income Tax Offset. It may also affect their Medicare levy payable.
If the grandparent is receiving Centrelink benefits there may be adverse implications as the investment could be asset tested and deemed.
Later on when the asset is to be transferred into the child’s name there may be gifting and capital gains tax issues, depending on the ownership situation. To help clarify ownership issues, the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) has provided some specific guidance on this issue on the ATO website.
The advice in the ATO's fact sheet "Children's share investments" rests mostly on the consideration of who rightfully owns and controls the investment (in this case, shares) and who benefits from any income generated from them.
The ATO offers this caution: "If there are large amounts of money or a regular turnover, you might need to examine the ownership of the shares further. You might need more information to work out who should declare the dividends."
A final word on the issue of tax and ownership issues, if there is a condition placed on the investment – that is, the child will only benefit from the investment if they meet a specified condition e.g. passing senior, attending university, buying a car – then ownership could rest with the adult for tax purposes.
This is because if the condition is not met by the child, then it is assumed the adult will retain ownership of the investment.
Strategies for adults considering investing for minors
Consider whether it is likely that the child's investment will generate income above the tax-free limit consistently over the life of the investment.
If the answer is no, then you should consider treating the income as belonging to the child. However, be careful to ensure all income generated from the investments is used only for the benefit of the child and the easiest way to show this is to reinvest it.
If you do withdraw it and use it for the child’s needs (education or otherwise) keep very good records to account for this use.
If the answer is yes, you should consider using a trustee with a low tax rate or use an investment vehicle like a trust or insurance/education bond or warrant.
The value of dollar-cost averaging
It is common for parents or their relatives to offer gifts to children in the form of an investment. This could be by way of a lump sum investment on behalf of the child or a regular savings facility, which can be drawn from at any given point in the future.
A regular savings facility includes the benefit of dollar-cost averaging – that is, the benefit of purchasing investment units at differing prices. The regular investment purchases less units when prices are high and more units when prices are low.
By averaging the unit price paid, the investment cost is reduced. Speak to your adviser for more information on regular savings facilities.
If you need more guidance on where to start when investing in your children's future, talk to your Morgans adviser or contact your nearest Morgans office.

- Heading into February results, we examine key strategic themes across earnings trends, the cyclicals rotation, yield security, rising AUD impacts and resources.
- In our Reporting Season Playbook (accessible by Morgans clients) our analysts preview the results for 184 stocks under coverage that report this February, calling out potential surprise and disappoint candidates.
- Key tactical trades into results include Sonic Healthcare, NextDC, Origin, Zip Co, Eagers Automotive, and Virtus.
Dampened expectations leave room for upside surprise
Investors have a lot to feel optimistic about as the economy continues to defy expectations (our chief economist Michael Knox is calling for a sharp V-shaped recovery) but analysts’ earnings and dividend forecasts are yet to capitalise the recent good form.
We think there is a risk of surprise in company results that have significant leverage to the recovery.
Domestic cyclicals outperforming overly fearful market expectations was a dominant theme in August and analyst previews of the 184 stocks under Morgans coverage suggest this trend will continue in February.
Our analysts expect that 28% of stocks covered have reason to respond positively to February results.
Various moving parts requires careful portfolio positioning
Investors need to position tactically into February results. Overall, we expect outlook commentary to be better than what was provided in August and we think the outlook for dividends has improved markedly.
But while the recent good form in the economy will benefit segments of the market (retailers, banks, resources), elevated valuations and currency headwinds will temper the performance of others (healthcare, offshore industrials/fintech).
We discuss key strategic questions:
- Can cyclicals deliver expected EPS upside surprise?
- Where’s the best source of secure yield?
- Will currency moves complicate the FY21 earnings picture?
- Do recovery expectations match reality?
- Does the resources rally have further to run?
Commodities/resources upside
An overweight exposure to resources shapes as one of the strongest sector allocation ideas for 2021.
Commodities tailwinds include improving post-COVID GDP growth, ongoing central bank stimulus, tight supply, and the weaker US dollar.
The best opportunities in the sector are in lagging energy and gold sectors.
Best tactical calls heading into results
In our Reporting Season Playbook, our research team previews expectations for 184 stocks reporting in February, including 52 where we expect positive price reactions, and 11 where we expect negative reactions.
We also profile the best looking tactical buys and notable stocks to avoid/trim. In this list we prefer larger stocks and those that overlap with the Morgans Best Ideas and the Morgans Equity Model Portfolios.
Morgans clients receive access to detailed market analysis and insights, provided by our award-winning research team. Begin your journey with Morgans today to view the exclusive coverage.