Investment Watch Summer 2024 Outlook

Investment Watch Summer 2024 Outlook is now available.

Investment Watch Winter 2022

A rapidly evolving investment landscape and a year of likely political uncertainty make forecasting difficult in 2024. We outline three possible scenarios:

1. Economic soft landing involves a modest deceleration below trend in major economies, without significant shocks disrupting markets. The decision to maintain higher interest rates will bring inflation near central banks’ target range. This would enable a shift towards reducing interest rates, alleviating the strain on households and companies.

2. A cyclical slowdown/mild recession resilience driven by fiscally supported consumers and companies has been the biggest surprise of 2023, but barring something extraordinary, next year could see the global economy finally turn lower. Inflation would be sticky for a period before returning to target, with interest rates staying higher for longer periods, resulting in bouts of asset price volatility.

3. Economic hard landing/balance sheet recession will be defined by a sharp downturn in the global economy. A sharp acceleration in corporate defaults would significantly reduce corporate and consumer spending. Central banks would respond by cutting interest rates as growth and inflation fall away.


  • Asset allocation – Positioning for a cyclical slowdown/mild recession
  • Economic strategy – US economic growth to slow
  • Equity strategy – Moving from defensives
  • Updated Morgans Best Ideas
  • … and much more

Download Investment Watch Summer 2024 Outlook

Investment Watch Summer 2024 Outlook

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