Research notes

The result was robust, considering the subdued volume environment, and the order book ($1.35bn) continues to surpass record levels. The cyclical low point has set in, with the company citing a “clear uplift in activity and strong momentum” across each of its key markets, underpinned by early contractor involvement processes and heightened tendering activity. While not in our forecasts, the strong demand environment could see CVL return earnings to its previous peak from FY24 apace, particularly if CVL wins another major contract. On FY24 earnings, CVL is trading on just 7x EBIT and 12x PE. This undervalues the base business, without ascribing any value to CVL’s strategic position at the WA defence precinct.

GQG reported a FY25 NPAT of US$463m, up +7% on the pcp, and +1% vs consensus (~US$460m).  Overall, we would describe this as an in-line result, with the key positive being signs of improved investment performance in January and February (as markets have turned more in GQG’s favour). We downgrade our GQG FY26F/FY27F EPS by -5%-10%. Changes to our numbers reflect increased outflows assumptions and a broad review of our earnings estimates. Our PT falls marginally to A$1.89 (previously A$1.90). Whilst acknowledging it could be early, improved January and February investment performance for GQG might mark the start of a business turnaround. Clearly there needs to be more evidence that the recent ‘flows risk’ period has passed, but trading on 7x PE and an 11% dividend yield ,we see the stock as too cheap versus its long-term prospects. We move to an ACCUMULATE rating (previously HOLD). With this note coverage transfers to Richard Coles.

AVH’s FY25 results broadly met our expectations. FY25 revenue landed slightly ahead of our forecast, gross margin a touch softer as secondary products enter the mix, but OpEx more disciplined, cash burn improved and the cash runway extended via the new debt facility with a small increase in available debt, but more importantly improved trailing revenue covenants. We see the below-consensus FY26 guidance range as a positive, to reset market expectations and give a sense the company is aiming to restore credibility around guidance, which has been off the mark in recent years. Gradual but achievable. Happy to still see another quarter or two to confirm OpEx base stability as well as early signs of re-engagement with physicians post reimbursement resolution. No change in SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation or valuation which remains at A$1.35 p/s.

The CIP portfolio continues to perform well, with +44% rental spreads and a further 20% under-renting to continue driving net property income growth over the medium term. Offsetting the strong property fundamentals, higher interest costs continue to impact CIP (and peers). Albeit, CIP’s debt book remains in good condition, benefiting from the recently issued exchangeable note ($350m at 3.5% coupon). To this end, the prospect of higher rates will likely continue to weigh on the sector, offsetting some of the positive fundamentals. It is on this basis we retain our ACCUMULATE recommendation and a $3.60/unit target price, with the view that the primary catalyst for a re-rating would be a moderation in the interest rate outlook.

AIS is acquiring Peel Mining’s (PEX) South Cobar Copper Project, extending Tritton’s resource base and supporting a credible 10+ year mine life. Mallee Bull adds high-grade, largely indicated resources, improving production visibility and enabling stronger mill utilisation, lower unit costs and enhanced operating leverage from ~FY29. Upgrade to BUY with a A$0.70ps target price, with the transaction strengthening Tritton’s long-term outlook.

NST reported its 1H26 result with no major earnings surprises, with key revisions to production, costs and guidance well flagged ahead of the print. The half yearly fully franked dividend of 25cps was a clear beat (+20%/+26% vs MorgansF/consensus). Key positive: The half year dividend of 25cps exceeded expectations but remained within the stated 20-30% cash-earnings payout range, landing toward the upper end rather than the lower end that MorgansF and consensus had forecast given the softer operating half. Key negative: The development timeline to first gold at the second major growth project, Hemi, has been officially pushed to FY30. While negative at face value, this timing was already reflected in MorgansF and the majority of consensus forecasts.

On face of it, the 1Q26 trading update suggested ANZ was tracking ahead of 1H26 growth expectations. However, the beat was driven mostly by the speed of cost-out and will unlikely affect consensus expectations as ANZ retained its FY26 cost guidance of c.$11.5bn. We make minor adjustments to FY26-28F EPS, reflecting 1Q26 Markets revenue strength, impairment charges lower than expected (but off an already low base), and higher shares on issue (DRP uptake was higher than assumed). 12-month target price $32.65 (+8 cps). We estimate ANZ is trading on 1.8x P:TBV, 16x PER, and 4.1% cash yield (partly franked), all stretched against historical trading ranges. Given the recent share price strength, we downgrade our rating from TRIM to SELL with a potential TSR of -15%.

ASX’s 1H26 result was largely pre-released. From an underlying business performance perspective, we view the result as broadly positive, seeing growth across all 4 business segments. At the topline, revenue of ~A$603m was +11% on the pcp; driven largely by: 1) A strong ‘markets’ performance (‘Futures & OTC’ +~13% and Cash markets +~25% vs pcp) and; 2) ‘Securities and Payments’ being up ~19% on pcp (higher revenue from Equity post trade services). Our FY26-FY28 EPS estimates increase marginally (+~1-2%) factoring in the result and better than previously forecast trading volumes across cash markets and Futures/OTC. Our DCF/PE-derived PT increases to A$58.20 (from A$58.10 previously) on the above. We maintain our HOLD recommendation and note near-term elevated costs will likely remain a headwind.

Bumper 1H26 EBITDA comfortably ahead of consensus and close to our estimate, riding consistent production and higher base and precious metals. 15% interim dividend beat and upsized capital management of an extra US$100m. Not all positive, Hermosa budget increase flagged for H2 a ST risk to monitor. Guidance unchanged, besides Brazil Aluminium output and capex timing tweaks. We lower our rating to ACCUMULATE (from BUY) with an unchanged A$5.00 TP, recommending patience when adding following the recent share price surge.

1H26 was better-than-feared, with double-digit sales growth (+10%) largely offset by tariff costs (~130bp GM impact) to deliver a flat NPAT outcome (+1% on pcp). Crucially, FY26 EBIT growth guidance provides much-needed earnings visibility, alleviating some concerns for an extended transition year and improving our confidence for a resumption of sustainable EPS growth from FY27+. We continue to be impressed by BRG's strong operational execution, green shoots in Food Prep, and powerful medium-term tailwinds (geographic expansion, espresso tailwinds, NPD, Best Buy developments). Buy maintained.