Research notes

NST has downgraded gold sales for the second time in FY26 and the third time since FY25, withdrawing full year guidance entirely, although indicate sales may exceed 1,500koz Au. The frequency, persistence and severity of operational issues across both KCGM and Yandal are concerning. We have downgraded our forecasts for KCGM (FY26, FY27) and Yandal (FY26 and beyond) until operations demonstrate a period of stability. We downgrade our price target for NST to A$30.00ps (previously A$35.00ps). Our BUY rating is maintained, we note valuation strength is derived from the long-term growth profile rather than near-term earnings.

EBITDA and underlying NLAT beat MorgansF and consensus expectations, though earnings remain impacted by ramp-up costs. Kathleen Valley production continues to scale, the balance sheet has strengthened materially, and a brownfield expansion appears increasingly likely. We upgrade to a HOLD rating (from TRIM) with a A$1.80ps target price as we see the stock as trading at fair value.

Founded in Spain, Inditex (ITX.MAD) began in 1963 when AmancioOrtega opened a small dressmaking workshop. Twelve years later, the first Zara store was opened in Spain, signalling Ortega’s transition from maker to retailer. In 1985, Inditex brought all its companies together under the one banner, making it an official retail conglomerate. The brand continued to grow by expanding worldwide, adding new brands to the group and going public on the Madrid Stock Exchange. Now, the group features seven brands, operating over 5,800 stores in 213 markets worldwide.

CKF has announced what we see as a high-quality German KFC bolt-on at attractive economics. CKF is acquiring an eight-restaurant Bavarian portfolio at just under 6x restaurant-level EBITDA (pre-AASB 16) and expects the deal to be immediately EPS accretive. The Germany runway has been extended through the German Development Agreement (DA) to 45-90 new restaurants (from 40-70), materially extending the organic growth runway. We believe this was a sensible, returns-focused deal that adds weight to the Germany growth story; execution is still key, but with a refreshed team and strong operators at the helm, success in Germany should be the catalyst for a re-rate despite lingering Netherlands noise. We upgrade to a BUY with a $12.70 target (was $12.40).

MFG has entered into an arrangement to merge with Barrenjoey. We think the deal makes strategic sense and will reinvigorate the MFG story. Nevertheless, deal pricing appears tilted in Barrenjoey’s favour (in our view). We assume the merger closes at the end of FY26. Changes to our MFG FY26F/FY27F/FY28F EPS are -27%/+10%/~+25% reflecting the incorporation of the deal and upgrades to our assessment of Barrenjoey’s earnings profile (based on new disclosures). Our price target is set at A$12.43 (previously A$9.80). We think the Barrenjoey merger fundamentally changes MFG’s overall outlook, strengthening the business and providing additional pathways to growth. MFG also retains a strong balance sheet (~A$690m of liquidity, post deal). Move to a BUY.

DBI’s share price has declined c.14% since its high on its FY25 reporting day in February. We see no factor causing a material change to the fundamental value of the business. Our forecasts and valuation includes the higher interest rate environment and elevated short-term inflation. Hence no change to our $5.35 target price. Forecast changes are negligible. At current prices we estimate potential TSR of c.21% (including a forecast 6.2% cash yield). We view this as an attractive return (with significant margin of safety) for a defensive but growing infrastructure asset. Hence we upgrade from HOLD to BUY.

We upgrade RIO from TRIM to HOLD with a revised target price of A$147 (prior A$146). The recent share price pullback closes the valuation stretch, while a lift in our medium-term iron ore assumption from US$80/t to US$85/t provides a firmer earnings floor. RIO remains a top-tier diversified miner. Not cheap enough for a BUY, but the pullback removes the overshoot that justified TRIM. Iron ore earnings platform, copper and aluminium leverage, and lithium optionality, RIO represents an attractive mix with good execution in the Pilbara and Oyu Tolgoi.

The Spartan Resources team has joined Torque Metals, positioning the company to drive the next phase of high-grade growth at the 250koz Paris Gold Camp. The incoming team includes Simon Lawson (Non-Executive Chairman), Craig Jones (CEO and MD) and David Coyne (Non-Executive Director). This is the same group who discovered and grew the Never Never and Pepper deposits from 303koz to 2,372koz Au in less than two years, ultimately transacting to RMS for A$2.5bn. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a price target of A$0.90ps.

GQG has provided a February FUM update.  Whilst monthly net flows remained negative (-US$3.2bn), strong February investment performance (+US$10.5bn), which drove +4.5% FUM growth, made this a positive update in our view. We lift our GQG FY26F/FY27F EPS by +1%-+2%, driven by increased FUM forecasts based on better investment performance than we expected. Our PT rises to A$2.03 (previously A$1.89). We acknowledge it remains early, but the improved January and February investment performance for GQG might mark the start of a business turnaround. We continue to see the stock as undervalued trading on 8x FY1 PE and an ~11% dividend yield. With >20% TSR upside, we move to a BUY rating, previously Accumulate.

PNR reported its H1FY26 result, alongside a production downgrade. Updated production forecasts of 86–92koz Au (previously 100–110koz) are considerably lower than our previous forecasts. We now model the upper end of guidance at an AISC of A$2,609/oz. We maintain our BUY rating and price target of A$6.53ps (previously A$6.83ps), the downgrade a function of revised forecasts.