Research notes

We initiate coverage on 29Metals (29M) with a 12-month target price of A$0.54ps and a BUY recommendation. We expect the Xantho Extended restart and Gossan Valley development at Golden Grove to restore grades and operating flexibility, while a potential Capricorn Copper restart provides medium-term production growth. Following its recent equity raise, 29M is better positioned to execute its plans, with upside potential supported by a constructive long-term copper outlook.

AIH has announced the completion of its acquisition of Imenco. We have incorporated the transaction into our forecasts, with the deal expected to be low-to-mid single digit EPS accretive. However, we use this update to also reflect forecast FX headwinds (GBP/AUD), which we expect to more than offset the accretion from the acquisition. Our forecasts for the base business are unchanged excluding the impacts from FX, and we continue to assume constant FX in outer years. Overall, we reduce our EBITDA forecasts by 1% annually across FY26-28 and NPAT by 3-4% over the same period. Target price reduces modestly to $1.45.

MEK announced an expansion to 800ktpa (equivalent ounce basis) via ore sorting, requiring modest capex of A$6m with commissioning scheduled for Q1FY27. Ore sorting effectively near doubles Andy Well underground head grade, lifting our annual production forecasts by an average of 7% from FY27 onwards. Open Pit throughput has tracked below DFS forecasts due to moisture-driven variability in open pit ore, an issue expected to resolve with underground stope commencement in 4QFY26. We revise our FY26 production forecast to 37.6koz Au (from 40.2koz), this is below the DFS guidance. We maintain our BUY rating and A$0.39ps price target, acknowledging near-term production softness may weigh on the 3Q result ahead of an anticipated step-change in output in 4Q.

Overall result missed expectations, with underlying NPAT of A$54m materially below MorgansF (A$63m) and Visible Alpha consensus (A$78m), despite EBITDA of A$215m coming in line with expectations. NHC declared a fully franked 10c dividend, beating MorgansF (8c) and consensus (6c) estimates. With an increasing production profile and material upside potential in coal prices, NHCs outlook remains positive. We maintain a HOLD rating with a target price of A$5.00ps.

ORI’s trading update was slightly stronger than we expected. It also announced the settlement of its litigation with CF Industries and the acquisition of its US explosives JV partner, Nelson Brothers, strengthening its US operations. Higher AUD and Indonesia’s coal production quotas have seen us make minor revisions to our FY26 forecasts but the acquisition has upgraded FY27/28. With leverage to attractive industry fundamentals, market leading positions, solid earnings growth, proven management team and strong balance sheet, we reiterate our BUY rating with a new price target of A$25.35.

TTX opens its fourth franchise in Precision Medicine, inking a 10-year US$30m R&D and licensing deal with US based digital health company SuperHealth Inc which is immediately revenue generating. We value the fourth franchise at $1.46 with commercial revenue expected from FY29. As a result, our DCF valuation has increased to $7.03 (was A$5.76) We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation.

NST has downgraded gold sales for the second time in FY26 and the third time since FY25, withdrawing full year guidance entirely, although indicate sales may exceed 1,500koz Au. The frequency, persistence and severity of operational issues across both KCGM and Yandal are concerning. We have downgraded our forecasts for KCGM (FY26, FY27) and Yandal (FY26 and beyond) until operations demonstrate a period of stability. We downgrade our price target for NST to A$30.00ps (previously A$35.00ps). Our BUY rating is maintained, we note valuation strength is derived from the long-term growth profile rather than near-term earnings.

EBITDA and underlying NLAT beat MorgansF and consensus expectations, though earnings remain impacted by ramp-up costs. Kathleen Valley production continues to scale, the balance sheet has strengthened materially, and a brownfield expansion appears increasingly likely. We upgrade to a HOLD rating (from TRIM) with a A$1.80ps target price as we see the stock as trading at fair value.

Founded in Spain, Inditex (ITX.MAD) began in 1963 when AmancioOrtega opened a small dressmaking workshop. Twelve years later, the first Zara store was opened in Spain, signalling Ortega’s transition from maker to retailer. In 1985, Inditex brought all its companies together under the one banner, making it an official retail conglomerate. The brand continued to grow by expanding worldwide, adding new brands to the group and going public on the Madrid Stock Exchange. Now, the group features seven brands, operating over 5,800 stores in 213 markets worldwide.

CKF has announced what we see as a high-quality German KFC bolt-on at attractive economics. CKF is acquiring an eight-restaurant Bavarian portfolio at just under 6x restaurant-level EBITDA (pre-AASB 16) and expects the deal to be immediately EPS accretive. The Germany runway has been extended through the German Development Agreement (DA) to 45-90 new restaurants (from 40-70), materially extending the organic growth runway. We believe this was a sensible, returns-focused deal that adds weight to the Germany growth story; execution is still key, but with a refreshed team and strong operators at the helm, success in Germany should be the catalyst for a re-rate despite lingering Netherlands noise. We upgrade to a BUY with a $12.70 target (was $12.40).