Research notes

1H26 result: solid result. Key positives: underlying EBITDA beat, Ngungaju plant restart confirmation and growth project studies brought forward. Key negatives: no dividend despite strong liquidity but ultimately this was not expected by most of the market. We maintain our HOLD rating with an unchanged A$4.60ps target price.

RRL reported its 1H26 result which demonstrated a series of modest beats across both EBITDA and NPAT, complimented by dividend payment of A$0.15ps. Key positive: Introduction of a structured capital management framework, with semi-annual distributions targeted at 25–50% of cash build, provides improved visibility on shareholder returns and better aligns with RRL’s leveraged exposure to the gold price. The 15cps fully franked dividend materially exceeded both MorgansF and consensus expectations and reinforces the strength of current cash generation. Key negative: No material negatives from the result. Operational and financial metrics were largely pre-reported, and delivery was consistent with guidance.

CGS has posted a ‘strong’ 1H26 result and the company expects a stronger 2H than previously anticipated. CGS continues to broaden the number of indications it targets, which in turn is generating an increase in sales contracts. In the 1H26, US$41.7m of sales contracts were executed across Alzheimer’s (38%); Mood, Sleep & Other Neurology (45%); Rare Disease (15%); and Cancer (2%). We note the FactSet consensus target price is A$3.08, which represents 41% upside to the last close.

SVR's 1H26 result in our view continued to illustrate the ongoing shift in the business as management work through the windup of New Zealand and refocus attention back towards domestic growth. Normalised NPAT of $20.0m (which included ~$2.2m of one-off), was ahead of MorgF Underlying NPAT of $17.4m, while Net interest income of $74.3m (-9% yoy) was behind MorgF ($76.6m) reflecting changing contribution from M3/AFS and the roll off of NZ book income. FY26 Normalised NPAT guidance of ~$36m (i.e. NPAT of $34m plus ~$2m from one-off sale of NZ Arrears) was reiterated (implying 2H NPAT of $16m), with SVR expecting book growth momentum to improve into 2H26 lead by Bennji & AFS. Our FY26-28F Underlying NPAT forecasts lift by +5%/+1%/+1%. This sees our price target lift to $2.00/sh (prev. $1.85), which informs our ACCUMULATE rating.

TLC delivered a resilient 1H26 result despite the leanest jackpot environment since demerger, with jackpot game outcomes (~50% of turnover) well below statistical norms. Record Keno performance and strength in base games (incl. Saturday Lotto retention +103%) helped cushion the impact, while digital mix growth was muted by the absence of large jackpots. New CEO Wayne Pickup's maiden result leaned into 'evolution not revolution', with messaging focused on portfolio optimisation and disciplined cost/capital allocation going forward. We have made modest near-term earnings revisions, lifting our valuation to $5.70 (from $5.40). TLC trades on forward EV/EBITDA and PER of ~16x and ~27x respectively, with the mid-year Investor Day the next key catalyst. Retain Hold.

SLC’s 1H26 result was a small beat and raise. It was a high-quality result with strong organic momentum and cashflow conversion. In addition to strong organic growth SLC announced the acquisition of NBN challenger Lightning Broadband for $165m in cash (15x FY1 EV/EBITDA). After updating our forecasts for the above, our target price remains at $3.00 and following recent share price strength we move to a Hold recommendation.

NWL reported 1H26 Revenue +24.7%; EBITDA +24.0%; and Underlying NPAT +19.8% on pcp, delivering strong momentum across the group, which was ahead of expectations. FY26 EBITDA margin guidance was reiterated for, implying 2H26 is expected to see a step-up in investment vs 1H26 ahead of the formal launch of its Broker/iHIN offering in 3Q26. Netflow guidance was also reaffirmed, with the group confident of momentum into FY27 as it looks to further scale its offering. We make minor changes to our NPAT forecasts of +3%/-1%/-3%, overall, this sees our price target move to A$29.00/sh, and we retain our ACCUMULATE rating.

Like its peers that reported in February, NAB’s 1Q26 trading update showed it is benefitting from a supportive interest rate, credit growth, and asset quality environment. We make upgrades to our forecasts to reflect performance and outlook. 12 month target price set at $37.27/sh. With more aggressive assumptions than previously we estimate a higher fundamental value for NAB. However, the share price is still trading far ahead of this revised estimate. SELL retained, with potential TSR of -17% (including 3.6% cash yield).

A solid CY25 earnings result from STO under difficult conditions, with lower commodity prices partly offset by solid cost controls and operating performances. Surprisingly large final dividend versus our estimate, with full year dividend payout equivalent to 86% of earnings and funded majority through debt. FCF was back in positive territory at US$208m, with a FCF breakeven of US$58.90/bbl. Strategic review on non-core assets could see some changes to the portfolio (Cooper, WA, Narrabri all being reviewed). We maintain a HOLD rating and A$6.80 target price.

SUN’s 1H26 NPAT (A$263m) was well down on the pcp ($1.1bn) due to bad weather, but it was only -2% below consensus ($268m). Overall, we saw this as a reasonable result, albeit similar to key peer IAG, SUN did deliver a mild downgrade to FY26 top-line growth guidance. We make relatively nominal changes to our SUN FY26F/FY27F EPS of -2%/+1% on a review of our earnings assumptions. Our PT is reduced to A$17.01 (previously A$19.28). With >10% upside to our valuation, we maintain our Accumulate rating on SUN.