Research notes

Strong beat and capital returns increased: NEM delivered a strong beat across multiple operating and financial metrics, while completing its US$6bn buyback and announcing a further US$6bn program. The result reinforces NEM’s positioning as a high-quality, cash-generative gold producer with strong balance sheet flexibility and increasing capacity to return capital to shareholders. Maintain BUY rating with a A$208ps target price.

M7T released its 3Q cashflow report with a downgrade to FY26 revenue guidance with expected Middle East capital sales delays offset by operating cost base reductions well ahead of expectations. Optics around the downgrade were clearly not positive, but also not surprising given the geopolitical tensions in the area likely pushed these decisions. Delayed not lost, but still a step back. On the positive side, a lower operating cost base sets up stronger operating leverage from FY27, however focus still firmly sits on the topline which has struggled to advance in recent years. Given the weaker optics, we see this as an opportune time to push a risk-on bear-case scenario with a view to review as risks alleviate while still noting the material upside. Our target price reduces to A$0.44 p/s. BUY recommendation retained.

Record production +8% ahead of consensus expectations and costs -13% ahead of consensus expectations highlights PLS’ strong operating leverage. Strong cash build supports growth and potential shareholder returns. Move to a TRIM rating (previously HOLD) with a A$5.40ps target price. PLS is our preferred lithium exposure, but we see much of the near-term upside priced in and suggest selectively trimming positions.

Gold sales of 89.1koz at an AISC of A$2,807 beat our expectations whilst performing in line with company guidance, delivering revenue of A$622m at an average realised price of A$6,977/oz. RRL continues to build a substantial cash balance, adding an additional A$198m bringing the total to A$1.12bn. Replenished ounces with group MRE exceeding 10% yoy resource growth underpinning future production. We upgrade to BUY (from HOLD) following recent weakness across the gold sector which we believe has uncovered value in RRL underpinned by attractive immediate term cash generation paired with a structured capital management framework.

3Q26 production weakness was pre-flagged and driven by grade timing and weather impacts, with improving throughput at MATSA and grade uplift at Motheo to support a strong 4Q26 finish. Costs remain well controlled but risks are building through potential Middle East conflict impacts. Move to an ACCUMULATE (previously HOLD) rating with an unchanged A$20.40ps target price, with recent weakness presenting a more attractive entry point against a constructive copper outlook.

BOQ’s 1H26 EPS declined -12% on the previous period, beating our forecast by 4% but missing Visible Alpha consensus by 3%. FY26-28F EPS adjustments of +1% to -4%. DPS upgraded to reflect higher payout ratio and forecast strength of CET1 capital ratio. Target price unchanged at $7.39. Upgrade from HOLD to ACCUMULATE, with recent share price decline lifting the potential TSR to c.18% TSR. BOQ’s attractive fully franked dividend and upcoming capital release may appeal in particular to income-oriented investors.

TTX posted its 3Q26 results and operational update. Across each of its franchises TTX is making solid progress in line with previously stated timelines. We remain focused on upcoming catalysts across the four franchisees including: FDA clearance for the bone regeneration product (Tegenix and TegenEOS); clinical progress for the tissue spacing products (Tutelix and Optelex) and the tissue healing products (TetraDerm); and product supply in the precision medicine franchise (STEPP). We have made no changes to our forecasts, although a higher risk free rate (House View) sees our DCF based valuation reduce to A$6.84 (was $7.03). We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation and expect the cadence of news flow to increase over the balance of the year.

GDG has provided a 3Q26 quarterly update. This quarterly was something of a familiar story, in our view - the Investment Bond business again delivered ahead of expectations, while Evidentia once again fell short of the mark. We lower our GDG FY26F/FY27F EPS by -4%-11% on more conservative earnings estimates particularly around Evidentia. Our price target is set at A$6.16 (previously A$6.66). We continue to be attracted to GDG’s exposure to structural growth areas, and its strong competitive positioning in these markets. With GDG trading at a >20% discount to our target price, we maintain our Buy recommendation.

COH has delivered a material downgrade to FY26 earnings, cutting guidance by c30% at the midpoint. While FX, geopolitics and cost actions contributed, the key takeaway is more fundamental, with CI demand, especially in developed markets, proving to be more cyclical and macro-sensitive than previously assumed. This challenges the market’s long-held view as a structural, volume-driven growth story largely insulated from economic cycles. While we view long-term fundamentals as intact, near-term earnings visibility has deteriorated materially, so we wait for demand stabilisation before re-engaging. We adjust our FY26-28 estimates and lower our target price to A$107.17 HOLD.

Airtasker’s (ART) broadly solid 3Q26 update was underpinned by a strong GMV performance from the domestic marketplace, AU GMV being up ~18% on the pcp to ~A57m. Pleasingly, this momentum was also mirrored in its US/UK marketplaces which continue to scale. 3Q26 Group revenue was +~12% on the pcp to A$15.2m. Whilst our forecasts remain unchanged at this juncture, we adopt the new house risk-free rate of 4.6% (from 4.2%) into our valuation. Our price target is lowered to A$0.47 from A$0.51 as a result. We retain our BUY recommendation.