Research notes

Global Business Travel Group (AMEX GBT) is the world’s leading B2B travel platform, providing software and services to manage travel, expenses, and meetings and events for companies of all sizes. It operates in more than 140 countries.

Amplitude’s share price suffered a brutal selloff after announcing it was now 0-for-2 in its ECSP exploration program. Isabella well flowed gas to surface but failed to maintain pressure and flow, disappointing given Isabella was the largest resource target in the program. The balance sheet and A$100m H1 EBITDAX buy time, but with two wells left and FID deferred, the next spud is effectively a must-win for the growth thesis. We retain our BUY rating with a revised A$3.00 target price, but the risk equation has shifted. Priced as an ex-growth cash cow, but still sensitive to well results.

Mastercard is a technology company that provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally. It facilitates the processing of payment transactions, including authorisation, clearing, and settlements. The company offers integrated products and value-added services for account holders, merchants, financial institutions, businesses, governments, and other organisations.

Boeing is a leading global aerospace and defence manufacturer, founded in 1916 and headquartered in Arlington, United States. The company designs and produces commercial airplanes, military aircraft, satellites, and space systems for customers in more than 150 countries. With a commercial airline market share of approximately 43%, Boeing remains a central player in global aviation. The company enters 2026 focused on production ramp-up, certification milestones for the 737 MAX 7, MAX 10 and 777-9, and a strategic recovery path under CEO Kelly Ortberg. Its extensive order backlog and diversified defence programs continue to underpin long-term growth opportunities.

Rheinmetall AG is a leading German defence contractor best known for designing and manufacturing tanks, cannons, and advanced combat systems. Its crown jewel is the 120mm smoothbore cannon used on the Leopard 2 main battle tank, widely regarded as one of the most precise and powerful tank guns in service. Rheinmetall is also a core industrial partner in the Franco-German MGCS (Main Ground Combat System) programme, aimed at developing Europe’s next-generation main battle tank.

CY25 marked a pivotal transition to commercialisation, with first US implants and strong early momentum continuing into CY26, supported by favourable reimbursement and growing physician engagement. Early KPIs remain encouraging, with implant volumes accelerating (18 in 4Q; 25 in Jan–Feb CY26), 28 hospital agreements signed, and 46 physicians trained, indicating a solid foundation for scale. Salesforce capacity and reimbursement complexity, not demand, act as governors, with strong patient pipelines and high physician enthusiasm. With cash of cUS$54m, B/S is a near-term focus, placing increased importance on execution through CY26 to support future funding at improved terms. We adjusted CY26-28 forecasts, with our DCF-based valuation decreasing to A$2.47. BUY.

TCG released an MRE upgrade for the Afema Gold Project lifting the resource base to 4.65Moz Au at 1.3g/t Au (up from 4Moz)– a beat on our forecasts of 4.5Moz Au at 1.1g/t Au. Afema now ranks as one of the largest undeveloped gold resources on the ASX. We maintain our existing forecasts and reiterate our BUY rating, price target A$2.19ps.

We initiate coverage on 29Metals (29M) with a 12-month target price of A$0.54ps and a BUY recommendation. We expect the Xantho Extended restart and Gossan Valley development at Golden Grove to restore grades and operating flexibility, while a potential Capricorn Copper restart provides medium-term production growth. Following its recent equity raise, 29M is better positioned to execute its plans, with upside potential supported by a constructive long-term copper outlook.

AIH has announced the completion of its acquisition of Imenco. We have incorporated the transaction into our forecasts, with the deal expected to be low-to-mid single digit EPS accretive. However, we use this update to also reflect forecast FX headwinds (GBP/AUD), which we expect to more than offset the accretion from the acquisition. Our forecasts for the base business are unchanged excluding the impacts from FX, and we continue to assume constant FX in outer years. Overall, we reduce our EBITDA forecasts by 1% annually across FY26-28 and NPAT by 3-4% over the same period. Target price reduces modestly to $1.45.