Research Notes

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Research Notes

FY25 earnings update and leadership restructure

Aurizon Holdings
3:27pm
June 27, 2025
FY25 earnings risk has been mostly removed with firm guidance provided for EBITDA, D&A and net interest. Focus of the August result will be on FY26 guidance - we target c.15% EBITDA growth and c.44% EPS growth. Expect FY27 growth to be far more benign. The stock faces negative narrative on its underperforming Bulk and Containerised Freight investments, but we also see heightened pressures in its Coal segment. Short-term valuation metrics look attractive but our revised DCF-based target price of $2.94/sh is weighed down by updates to our medium term forecasts (especially Coal). Downgrade to HOLD.

Paying for a step change in America

Xero
3:27pm
June 26, 2025
XRO will acquire North American Digital Payments business, Melio, for US$2.5bn. The acquisition is short-term dilutive as XRO is acquiring a loss-making business. However, medium term this should help XRO fast track its American expansion. The acquisition brings product innovation and makes XRO’s NAM product more compelling due to combining digital payments and accounting. It also brings additional scale which should, with additional sales and marketing investments, move XRO closer to a scale player with critical mass in North America. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation and $215 Target Price.

Growth accelerates

Tasmea
3:27pm
June 25, 2025

In deep value territory but patience is required

Treasury Wine Estates
3:27pm
June 25, 2025
TWE has released its new divisional operating model (Penfolds, Treasury Americas and Treasury Collective) and a further update on its business performance. FY25 guidance was reiterated. In FY26, TWE is targeting further earnings growth, albeit more modest than its previous targets, particularly for Treasury Americas. An up to 5% share buyback was also announced. We have revised our forecasts. While not without risk given industry and macro headwinds, TWE’s trading multiples look far too cheap (FY25/26 PE of only 13.6/12.6x) and we maintain a BUY rating. However, we recognise the stock is lacking near-term catalysts and therefore patience is required given a material rerating may take time to eventuate.

A new era

Collins Foods
3:27pm
June 24, 2025
CKF’s FY25 result was materially better than expected with underlying NPAT 15% ahead of consensus mainly driven by stronger than guided margins. After a challenging 1H25, profitability materially improved in the 2H25 reflecting stronger SSS growth, cost deflation and operational efficiencies. Despite a weaker than expected trading update, CKF provided FY26 underlying NPAT guidance for low to mid-teens growth which was in line with consensus. Importantly, guidance does not account for much of a recovery in SSS growth from the 1H26 trading update and is driven by continued cost deflation and operational efficiencies (self-help). In our view, CKF providing specific NPAT guidance this early in the year (for the first time) is a strong positive endorsement from management in the outlook. CKF’s track record will likely mean guidance will prove to be conservative. It also includes Taco Bell losses (planned exit in FY26). The solid 2H25 result indicates to us that 1H25 will prove to be the bottom of the cycle for margins and SSS growth. Importantly, CKF has executed well in a challenging environment, setting the company up to benefit strongly from a recovery in operating conditions which is now starting to take place. Maintain BUY.

Easing the compliance burden

Wrkr
3:27pm
June 24, 2025
Wrkr (WKR) is a leading platform solution targeting the complex markets of staff on-boarding and payments for employers and superannuation funds. In FY24 WKR achieved key financial milestones of becoming EBITDA and Operating Cash Flow positive. Full implementation of WKR’s contract with REST should not only drive significant revenue growth but also provide a key credibility proof point assisting future contract wins.

On clearance

Adairs
3:27pm
June 23, 2025
ADH has provided a trading update for FY25, with group EBIT (pre-AASB 16) expected to be between $53.5-57.0m, which was roughly 10% lower than consensus expectations and up 1.2% on the pcp. Sales are expected to be broadly in line with expectations and up 6.2% yoy (Adairs up 9.2%, Mocka up 14.1% and Focus down 7.0%). However, performance has been impacted by elevated levels of promotional activity and weaker AUD compared to the pcp which has impacted gross margins. We have lowered our EBIT forecast by 15%/14% in FY25 and FY26. We continue to see this business significantly leveraged into a recovery in consumer sentiment. We have moved to a Buy recommendation with a $2.60 price target.

Updating long-term assumptions

Sigma Healthcare Ltd
3:27pm
June 23, 2025
Following domestic and global index inclusions, and ahead of the maiden full year result, we have taken the time to refresh our longer-term forecasts and update our valuation. We have removed our 30% liquidity premium which we applied to capture increased passive buying. We have increased our longer-term growth assumptions, which has increased our DCF valuation, we have also refreshed our peer compco. The result is a blended DCF and EV/EBIT based valuation to derive our target price of $3.12. Whilst we have a positive fundamental long-term view of this high-quality business, we see the current valuation as a bit stretched. We look for weakness to add to positions. HOLD maintained.

C-5H commences as peer results ignite the basin

Beetaloo Energy Australia
3:27pm
June 18, 2025
A big week for Beetaloo Energy (previously called Empire Energy) as it kicks off the hydraulic stimulation of its key Carpentaria-5H well, just as a neighbour posts a stellar flow rate from its own in the basin. The Beetaloo Basin peer (Falcon/Tamboran JV) reported a flow rate of IP30 of 7.2mmcfpd gas from 1,671m lateral from their Shenandoah South 2H ST1 well announced this week. We track BTL’s progress with strong interest, particularly given the largescale C-5H well holds the potential to materially demonstrate play deliverability while testing possible upside scenarios through the upscaled well/completion designs. Significant cash of A$40.5m sees Beetaloo well supported through its pilot program. Maintain SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a A$0.73ps.

Solid operational progress

Clever Culture Systems
3:27pm
June 18, 2025
CC5 has achieved positive operating cashflow in 3Q25 in line with guidance and is on track to achieve break-even or better for 2H25. CC5 is in a sound cash position with A$2.2m at period end. CC5’s strategy is to target large pharmaceutical companies and build on the success so far with AstraZeneca and BMS. The current installed base is 27 units with a pipeline of 40 qualified opportunities. Key catalysts include announcements around the expansion of additional orders within the customer base and orders from new customers.

News & Insights

From Houthi attacks on Suez Canal shipping to Trump’s Operation Rough Rider and Iran’s nuclear facility strikes, explore how these events shape oil prices.

At the beginning of the week, I was asked to write something about Iran. When I started looking at what had been happening , I realised that what we were talking about begins with an action by a proxy of Iran back in November 2023. How  that was initially handled with the Biden regime, and how then it was dealt with  deftly by Trump this year,   in turn led to  the need for an attack on Iran's nuclear facility.

Winston Churchill noted in his first volume of his history of the Second World War that it was important to understand that the United States is primarily a naval power. Indeed, the US remains the world dominant naval power. As such, two major strategic concerns remain for the US : the control of the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal .

To the US The idea that another country might block access to either of these must be intolerable. Yet what began happening, beginning on the 19th November 2023, was that , Houthi rebels that controlled a the northern part of a small country in southwestern Arabia, began to act. These Houthi rebels were acting as a proxy for Iran. They were funded by Iran, and armed with Ship-killing rockets, by Iran.

By February 2024, they had attacked 40 ships which had been attempting to sail northwards towards the Suez Canal. By March 2024, 200 ships had been diverted away from the Suez Canal and forced to make the longer and more expensive voyage around the Cape of Good Hope of South Africa. At this point, I think The Economist magazine said that this was the most severe Suez crisis since the 1950s.

The U.S. did respond. On the 18th December 2023, the U.S. had announced an international maritime force to break the Houthi blockade. On the 10th January, the UN National Security Council adopted a resolution demanding a cessation of Houthi attacks on merchant vessels.

As of the 2nd January 2024, the Houthis had already recorded 931 American and British airstrikes against sites in Yemen. Then Trump came to power. To Trump, the idea of the proxy of Iran blockading the Suez Canal could not be tolerated.

From the 15th March 2025, Trump began "Operatation  Rough Rider". This was named for the cavalry commanded by the then-future President Theodore Roosevelt, who charged up San Juan Hill in Cuba during the Spanish-American War of 1898. The U.S. then hit the Houthis with over a thousand airstrikes. So they were bombing at ten times the rate they previously had been. The result of that was that by the 6th March 2025, Trump announced that the Houthis, these proxies of Iran, had capitulated as part of a ceasefire brokered by Oman. This directly led to the main game.

It was obvious that the decision to do the unthinkable, and block the Suez Canal, had come from Iran.
What other unthinkable things was Iran considering?

It is obvious that Trump now believed that the next unthinkable thing that Iran was considering was nuclear weapons. As Iran's other proxies collapsed, Iran's air defence collapsed. In turn, this gave Trump the room to act, and he took it. He launched a bombing raid which severely disabled Iran's nuclear capacity. Some say it completely destroyed it.

Iran retaliated by launching 14 rockets at the American base in Qatar, warning the Americans this was going to happen, and this had no other effect than allowing Iran to announce a glorious victory by themselves over the Americans. Iran had thought the unthinkable and had achieved what was, to them, as a result, an unthinkable reverse.

The ceasefire that has followed has been interpreted by markets as a relief from major risk. Now, the major effect of this on markets has been a dramatic rocketing in the oil price, followed by a fall in the oil price. So I thought I’d look at the fundamentals of the oil price, from running two of my models of the Brent price, using current fundamentals.

Now, the simplest model that I’ve got explains 63% of monthly variation of the Brent oil price. And it’s based on two things. One is the level of stocks in the U.S., which are published every week by the Energy Information Administration .  Those stocks are  down a bit in the most recent months because this is the summer driving season where oil stocks are being drawn down to provide higher demand for gasoline. So that’s a positive thing. And the other thing that I’ve been talking about this year is that I think  we’re going to see a steady fall in the U.S. dollar, and that’s going to generate the beginning of a recovery in commodities prices. So if I also put the U.S. dollar index into this model, it gives me an equilibrium model now of $78.96. And that’s about $US12  higher than the oil price was this morning.

If I strengthen that model by adding the U.S. CPI, because, you know, the cost of production cost of oil raises over time, that increases the power of the model . And that lifts the equilibrium price very considerably to $97 a barrel, which is $30 a barrel higher than it currently is. So I regard that as my medium-term model, and the first one is my short-term model.

What’s really interesting is that the U.S. dollar  has continued to fall.  That puts further upward pressure  on the oil price. So in spite of this crisis having been solved, I think we’re going to see more upward price action on the oil price by the end of the year.

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The US economy is growing strongly at 2.34% in Q2 2025 but is expected to slow to 1.4% in 2025, with falling interest rates and a weaker US dollar likely to boost commodity prices, benefiting Australian markets. Michael Knox discusses.

We think the US economy is currently experiencing solid growth, with data from the Chicago Fed  National Activity Index indicating an annual growth rate of just above  2%. This aligns with projections from other parts of the Federal Reserve System, such as the New York Fed. The New York Fed’s weekly Nowcast, updated every Friday, estimates that for the second quarter of 2025, the US economy is growing at an annualised rate of 2.34%, surpassing the 2% mark. This robust growth is consistent with our model’s view that the US economy is now performing strongly. However, we anticipate a slowdown in the second half of 2025.

On 18 June the Fed released its Summary of Economic Projections  with the Federal Reserve’s  forecasting US GDP growth to drop to 1.4% in 2025, down from their March estimate of 1.7%. Looking further ahead, growth is expected to pick up slightly to 1.6% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, aligning with the long-term trend growth rate of around 1.8%. We believe this recovery trend could be even  higher,  driven by reduced regulation under the second Trump administration and aggressive tax write-offs for companies building factories in the US, allowing 100% write-offs for equipment and buildings in the first year. This policy should foster stronger systemic growth.

Economic Projections of the Federal Reserve

The Fed expects that as the economy slows,  unemployment is projected to rise to 4.5% from the current level of 4.2%. Inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is running at 3.5% this year, approximately 50 basis points higher than the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index of 3.0%, with 1.6% of this  inflation  attributed to tariffs. The Fed expects PCE Inflation  to ease to 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. The Federal Reserve anticipates cutting the effective  federal funds rate, currently at 433 basis points (according to the New York Fed), by 50 basis points by the end of 2025, followed by an additional 25 basis points in each of the next two years. This aligns with our own Fed Funds rate  model’s current equilibrium federal funds rate of  3.85% . The Fed Outlook  supports our scenario of a slowing US economy and rate cuts in the second half of 2025 and beyond. A falling US dollar is then expected to exert upward pressure on commodity prices, benefiting Australian Equity markets.

Taking questions during the Press Conference after releasing the Fed statement  ,Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell,   addressed the certainty and uncertainty surrounding the inflationary effects of tariffs. Initially, at the start of 2025, the inflationary impact of tariff policies was unclear, but three months of favourable inflation data have provided this clarity, indicating that the inflationary effects are less severe than anticipated. Powell noted that the Feds own uncertainty on the inflationary effects of  tariffs  peaked in April 2025, and the Federal Reserve now has a clearer understanding that  the inflation effects, are lower than initially expected.

The Fed view  supports our own scenario of a slowing US economy in the second half of 2025, allowing for Fed rate cuts  . This in turn should then lead to  a falling US dollar, which we in turn  expect to drive rising commodity prices.

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The Your Wealth publication is our half yearly scrutiny into current affairs for wealth management. Our latest Issue 29 is out now.

The second half of 2025 will be an interesting time for everyone. Geopolitical uncertainty prevails. How will all of this impact the Australian investor and in particular, their wealth and retirement savings? Whether you are an accumulator, saving for short- and long-term goals, or a retiree, hoping for a comfortable retirement, the ability to manage this uncertainty will be key.

When we published the previous Your Wealth – First Half 2025, the Division 296 Bill (Div296) was also facing uncertainty. The Bill was eventually blocked in the Senate prior to the Federal Election. The Labor Party succeeded in winning so it’s Ground Hog Day for Div296. The Government doesn’t have the numbers in the Senate to pass the Bill without support from other parties. The Greens are the likely negotiating party but will undoubtably have their own agenda. Regardless, there is a high probability this legislation will be passed once Parliament resumes.

Our message to our clients is to wait until we know more details and to not act in haste.

In addition to our Feature Article which provides further insights on Div296, this edition also Spotlights the Aged Care changes due this year, with the start date pushed back to 1 November.

We hope readers enjoy this edition of Your Wealth.


Morgans clients receive exclusive insights such as access to our latest Your Wealth publication. Contact us today to begin your journey with Morgans.

      
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