Research notes

We initiate coverage on SHAPE with an ACCUMULATE recommendation and an $8.62 share price target. We see SHAPE as a higher-quality contractor, supported by short-duration projects, repeat client relationships, predominantly internal works, disciplined contract selection and a capital-light delivery model. This operating model, combined with its strong client relationships and tender discipline, positions SHAPE to continue converting pipeline into project wins.

Following QAL’s recent 3QFY26 update, the announced changes to residential real estate investment in the Federal Budget and the sale of a further interest in the comparable Metrics Credit, we have upgraded QAL to a BUY with a $3.50/sh price target. Our valuation and recommendation change was driven almost entirely by a reduction to our discretionary valuation discount (+75 cps), reflecting our lower perceived risk as a) the company reiterates that FUM commitments continue to increase and b) FUM deployments set new records.

AVH released its 1Q26 result which was a clear step-in the right direction with solid QoQ growth with FY26 guidance reaffirmed, but cash balance remains the key gating factor for further positivity and its biggest near-term risk. Operationally though it appears the worst is behind them now with the cost base reset sticking and now all 7 Medicare Administrative Contractors (MACs) now publishing RECELL reimbursement rates which fully closes the structural headwind which has plagued the stock over the last 18 months. Marginally more positive, but equally happy to keep holding out until cash is addressed properly. No change to our Speculative Buy recommendation or A$1.35 DCF-based valuation.

BAP has delivered another weaker update, lowering FY26 EBITDA guidance by ~5% (at mid-point) <3 months after announcing its ~A$200m capital raise. Whilst BAP has shown some improvement in group sales growth through Feb-Apr (Trade +0.7%, Networks +3.8%, Retail +1.6% and NZ +0.7%), trading conditions deteriorated in April and are expected to persist through to FY26-end, coinciding with elevated inflationary pressures (fuel, freight and suppliers). Another disappointing, but largely unsurprising update from BAP. The group continues to work through its business turnaround, which has already taken a backwards step as it navigates a challenging macro backdrop. Given the ongoing earnings volatility and limited visibility, balance sheet deleveraging pushed to FY27, flagged potential impairment and expected continuation of challenging trade conditions through FY26, we see limited reasons to move from our underweight view. Maintain TRIM recommendation.

EMV has made progress in the pivotal clinical trial for emu™ with enrolment expected to complete late CY26 or early CY27. EMV’s aeromedical feasibility and usability study with the First Responder (pre-hospital) device is expected to complete recruitment in this quarter. EMV continues to manage its cash position well which includes grant funding from various sources.

We see TWE’s Investor Day on 4 June as a key share price catalyst. At this event, the company intends to share its detailed plans and targets for its portfolio and operating model to support a future state TWE. TWE’s recent trading update was positive with strong depletion growth, highlighting the strength of its brands. It also has the support of its banks with new debt commitments secured. 2H26 EBITS is on track to be higher than the 1H26. Following material share price weakness, given its low trading multiples and our belief that new management can deliver more acceptable returns overtime, we upgrade to a BUY recommendation.

GNC’s 1H26 result was weak but broadly in line with consensus at the NPAT level. Business unit performance was stronger for Agribusiness but materially weaker for Nutrition & Energy given a one-off derivate timing issue. GNC reported a significantly larger than expected cash outflow and its core cash position was also lower than expected. The era of special dividends now appears to be over. GNC reiterated its FY26 earnings guidance. The outlook for the FY27 winter crop is one of caution given grain grower’s cost pressures and the BOM’s dry outlook. We have downgraded our forecasts for a much smaller crop. GNC’s strategic assets are worth materially more than its current share price. However, given earnings look set to decline again in FY27, the stock is lacking share price catalysts, and we move to a HOLD recommendation.

XRO reported a better-than-expected FY26 result and FY27 outlook. Earnings momentum continues to improve relative to consensus expectations. Management were confident enough to announce a buy-back and hint at potential capital management in FY28. However, investors didn’t take comfort with commentary around AI disruption risk versus reward. Management has a plan to maximise the opportunity set (TAM) ahead of a path to AI monetisation. It’s early days in AI and the path to AI driven value creation will become clearer, over time. We retain our BUY recommendation and $111 Target Price.

WOR hosted an investor day outlining its medium-term ambitions to deliver double-digit EBITA CAGR through to FY30. Central to this plan is pursuing a full delivery project model as WOR looks to capture more of the value chain by performing construction work. Looking ahead, WOR should see some medium-term support from Middle East repair activity and a broader uplift in global upstream hydrocarbon spending driven by renewed energy security concerns. However, consensus already embeds strong growth into FY27, and risks persist, including project concentration and execution risk associated with larger EPC work. We make no changes to our forecasts except to incorporate the buy-back which drives FY27/28 EPS +3/5% higher. We maintain our HOLD recommendation and increase our target price slightly to $11.80 (from $11.60).

BlinkLab (BB1) is a digital healthcare company that has developed a smartphone-based neuroscience diagnostic platform to aid the early diagnosis of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) using neurometric testing analysed via machine learning. BB1 has recently completed a $17.5m capital raising which comfortably funds its two clinical programs, ASD and Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), through to approval, which the company expects in FY27 and FY28, respectively. BB1’s pilot study showed impressive results. As a result, a pivotal study recruiting 528 participants is due to read out in late CY26, representing a key milestone. A successful result would see regulatory clearance around 1QCY27. In parallel, the much larger ADHD opportunity is progressing. Offering potential share price catalyst through upcoming news flow, we initiate coverage of BB1 with a A$1.76 target price and SPECULATIVE BUY rating for investors with a higher risk profile.