Research notes

NHC delivered a materially stronger-than-expected 3Q26, with group coal sales of 3.2Mt beating consensus by ~20%. Saleable Production was also strong at 3.01Mt, beating consensus by ~10%. Bengalla achieved a FOB cash cost ($AUD/t) of $74, down from $84.4 in the prior quarter. Underlying EBITDA (unaudited) of ~A$130m came in ~22% ahead of the prior quarter, supported by higher volumes and a meaningful step-down in unit costs. We maintain a HOLD rating with a target price of A$5.25ps.

MP1 has announced a series of large contract wins which are financially and strategically significant. MP1 will use its globally unique communications platform to connect servers and GPU clusters in numerous DCs across the US. DC power constraints are a growing issue and MP1 was uniquely able to stitch together multiple sites to provide consolidated inference solutions. We update our forecasts to reflect recent contract wins, lifting our TP to $15.50 per share. We retain a BUY recommendation.

BXB’s trading update was disappointing, reflecting short-term pallet repair capacity constraints in parts of the US. These issues were driven by subcontractor turnover at service centres, labour shortages, and elevated supply chain costs, including additional repair, handling, transportation, and storage expenses. BXB has downgraded FY26 (constant FX) revenue growth guidance to 2-3% (vs 3-4% previously) while underlying EBIT growth is now expected to be 3-5% (vs 8-11% previously). We adjust FY26/27/28F underlying EBIT by -4%/-5%/-1%. Our target price declines to $18.70 (from $25.50) and we move to a HOLD rating (from ACCUMULATE). While management expects US pallet repair capacity constraints to be a short-term issue, with resolution targeted by the end of 1H27 and improvement initiatives already underway, risks remain given the challenging operating environment, including potential for further subcontractor turnover. With the volume outlook also uncertain, we prefer to wait for BXB’s FY26 result on 20 August before reassessing our view.

TNC continues to advance both the Mt Oxide Copper Project and Cloncurry Hub across multiple fronts, against a backdrop of record copper prices. Exploration momentum continues to build at Mt Oxide, while the broader Cloncurry growth strategy is gaining traction through ongoing exploration success and commercial agreements. Looking ahead, we view the next 12 months as a key formative period for TNC, with continued drilling and development activity expected to further define the scale potential at Mt Oxide. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating and A$1.30ps price target.

Alibaba Group is a Chinese multinational technology company specialising in e-commerce, retail, Internet and technology. The company has 7 main operating segments: China commerce retail, China commerce wholesale, International commerce, Core commerce, Digital Media and Entertainment, Cloud and Other. Across these segments are 32 companies. Alibaba’s primary business is a digital marketplace where consumers and merchants can connect to buy and sell from each other.

Tencent Holdings Ltd is a Chinese multinational technology conglomerate and holding company headquartered in Shenzhen. Its services include social network, music, web portals, e-commerce, mobile games, internet services, payment systems, smartphones and multiplayer online games. The company is split into six groups: Corporate Development Group, Cloud & Smart Industries Group, Interactive Entertainment Group, Platform & Content Group, Technology Engineering Group and Weixin Group.

Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) is a leading multinational technology conglomerate headquartered in San Jose, California. The company has established itself as a dominant force in the digital communications landscape since its founding in 1984.

We initiate coverage on SHAPE with an ACCUMULATE recommendation and an $8.62 share price target. We see SHAPE as a higher-quality contractor, supported by short-duration projects, repeat client relationships, predominantly internal works, disciplined contract selection and a capital-light delivery model. This operating model, combined with its strong client relationships and tender discipline, positions SHAPE to continue converting pipeline into project wins.

Following QAL’s recent 3QFY26 update, the announced changes to residential real estate investment in the Federal Budget and the sale of a further interest in the comparable Metrics Credit, we have upgraded QAL to a BUY with a $3.50/sh price target. Our valuation and recommendation change was driven almost entirely by a reduction to our discretionary valuation discount (+75 cps), reflecting our lower perceived risk as a) the company reiterates that FUM commitments continue to increase and b) FUM deployments set new records.

AVH released its 1Q26 result which was a clear step-in the right direction with solid QoQ growth with FY26 guidance reaffirmed, but cash balance remains the key gating factor for further positivity and its biggest near-term risk. Operationally though it appears the worst is behind them now with the cost base reset sticking and now all 7 Medicare Administrative Contractors (MACs) now publishing RECELL reimbursement rates which fully closes the structural headwind which has plagued the stock over the last 18 months. Marginally more positive, but equally happy to keep holding out until cash is addressed properly. No change to our Speculative Buy recommendation or A$1.35 DCF-based valuation.