Research notes
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Research Notes
3Q26 update
PEXA Group
May 5, 2026
PXA has delivered a strong 3Q26 performance update, with Australian Exchange volumes up 7.3% on the pcp and Group Core NPAT now anticipated at the top end of the FY26 guidance range. We marginally lower our PXA FY26F/FY27 EPS by ~3% on a broad review of our earnings assumptions. Our PT is altered to A$14.23 (from A$14.31). We maintain our ACCUMULATE recommendation with >10% upside to our PT.
1H26: Underlying growth, higher credit & software risk
National Australia Bank
May 4, 2026
1H26 earnings were a mixed bag and a touch below expectations. FY26-28F EPS adjusted +/-2%. DPS held flat across FY26-27F. Target price lifted 4% to $36.10/sh. Rating lifted from SELL to TRIM, given total potential return of -4% at current prices.
1Q26 result: operating execution key for CY26
29 Metals
May 4, 2026
Copper production remains resilient while by-products and costs reflect the absence of zinc-rich ore from Xantho Extended. The balance sheet is currently stable but disciplined execution through CY26 remains critical as the business manages elevated funding requirements while operating without its highest-grade ore source. Maintain HOLD with a A$0.26ps Target Price.
Operating environment gets weaker
Endeavour Group
May 4, 2026
EDV’s trading update overall was slightly below expectations. While EDV’s Retail division continues to outperform Coles Group’s (COL) Liquor segment and win market share, the market remains subdued outside of key events such as Easter. After a strong start to 2H26, Hotels momentum softened in March amid growing cost of living pressures. Management has flagged higher costs in relation to inventory, fuel and freight, with a $100m cost out program targeted for delivery in FY27 expected to improve efficiency and mitigate inflationary pressures. We decrease FY26-28F underlying EBIT by 3-4%. Our target price declines to $3.30 (from $3.65) and we maintain our HOLD rating.
International Spotlight
Boeing Co.
May 4, 2026
Boeing is a leading global aerospace and defence manufacturer, founded in 1916 and headquartered in Arlington, United States. The company designs and produces commercial airplanes, military aircraft, satellites, and space systems for customers in more than 150 countries. With a commercial airline market share of approximately 43%, Boeing remains a central player in global aviation. The company enters 2026 focused on production ramp-up, certification milestones for the 737 MAX 7, MAX 10 and 777-9, and a strategic recovery path under CEO Kelly Ortberg. Its extensive order backlog and diversified defence programs continue to underpin long-term growth opportunities.
Cash injection helps plot path to breakeven
ImpediMed
May 4, 2026
IPD announced a A$15.2m capital raise together with cost saving initiatives as it plans to reach breakeven by FY28. The new capital will also partly repay debt that has been overhanging the company. Our focus has been the rate of growth of SOZO in the US. IPD delivered 30 units in 3Q26, which was below our forecast of 40 units, however the cadence of new orders appears to be improving. We have adjusted our forecasts down taking a more cautious stance on SOZO installed base growth. Also, we have adjusted our model for the capital raising. As a result, our DCF based valuation has decreased to A$0.02 (was $0.05). We have maintained our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation for investors with a higher risk tolerance.
3QFY26 - Momentum builds as US execution lifts
Saluda Medical
May 4, 2026
3QFY26 activity continued to build on strong 1H performance, with accelerating US commercial momentum underpinning another revenue upgrade. Revenue grew 13% QoQ to US$23.8m (+34% YoY), supported by strong growth in implanted patients (+55% YoY), active physicians and utilisation, we believe highlighting increasing traction across the US footprint. We view the second consecutive guidance upgrade (now US$87m, +24% YoY) as evidence of improving visibility, with salesforce scaling and physician productivity continuing to trend ahead of expectations. We update FY26 forecasts in line with guidance, with our DCF-based target price lowered to A$2.94, mainly on FX and risk-free rate adjustments. SPECULATIVE BUY maintained.
3QFY26- DETECT Momentum Building
Epiminder
May 4, 2026
3QFY26 activity highlights improving execution, with DETECT enrolment and site activation now gaining traction following a slow start. Since 1HFY26, EPI has expanded to 18 Tier-1 US centres and increased enrolled patients to 15 (from 3 in February), remaining on track to reach 25 this month. Cash burn was lower than expected, reflecting timing of site invoicing, while runway remains intact through CY28. We adjusted FY26-28 forecasts and lowered our DCF-based target price to A$2.23 mainly on risk-free rate adjustment. SPECULATIVE BUY rating maintained.
Revenue upgrade driven by Myriad momentum
Aroa Biosurgery
May 4, 2026
ARX has upgraded FY26 revenue and EBITDA guidance driven mainly by higher Myriad sales. We have revised our forecasts in line with guidance and increased our risk free rate (house view) which results in a small downgrade to our DCF valuation to A$0.77 (was $0.79). ARX will release its FY26 results on 26 May which will include FY27 guidance. The market will focus on revenue growth (MorgansF sit at 15%) and commentary around the continuing momentum with Myriad and SymphonyTM. We maintain our BUY recommendation with investor sentiment towards the name improving.
3Q - beat, overshowed by noise; fundamentals intact
ResMed Inc
May 3, 2026
RMD’s 3Q result was solid, with double-digit revenue and earnings growth, further margin expansion and strong cash flow generation. Sleep and respiratory demand remains robust, with continued mask strength and ROW re-acceleration, while SaaS remains stable but subdued. Notably, GM expansion continues, underpinned via manufacturing, procurement and logistics efficiencies. And while macro uncertainties remain and investors seemingly focus on variability in US device growth while pondering if the Noctrix acquisition is merely a ‘plug’ to a slowing core, we view these concerns as myopic and manageable. We adjust FY26-28 forecasts modesty with our target price declining to A$41.72, mainly on house changes to FX and risk-free rate. BUY.
News & insights
May 6, 2026
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Morgans
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May 4, 2026
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Private Sector Recession, Public Sector BOOM
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April 27, 2026
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Iran Oil Blockade: Why Oil Prices Could Stay High for Months
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