Research notes

The 3Q update was strong with constant FX organic revenue growth of +26% YoY. While we pare back our FY26 revenue forecast slightly on FX, we make negligible changes to our EBITDA forecast ($164m +3% vs VA consensus $160m) as mix benefits offset the lower revenue. For FY27-28, we increase our earnings forecasts on confirmation of strong volume growth and recent capital markets activity. While we see capacity for a slight beat in August, in our view, outer year upgrades will be the key driver of the share price from here. FY27 VA consensus revenue is muddled due to recent break-even acquisitions, however, FY27 EBITDA of $187m implies less than +10% organic revenue growth in the base business vs FY26 consensus EBITDA of $160m (assuming incremental margins of +40-50% and an incremental +$7m EBITDA YoY contribution from ALT/MSI). We forecast FY27 EBITDA of $200m (+7% vs $160m consensus). Our target price rises to $5.00.

DBI’s share price has increased c.17% since our high conviction upgrade of the stock’s rating in March. We moderate from BUY to HOLD, given 12 month potential total return has compressed to c.3%. 12 month target price set at $5.31/sh, down -4cps from previously due to negligible forecast changes related to actual March CPI (used in the July annual escalation of TIC revenue), higher QCA-approved non-expansionary capex for inclusion in the asset base than previously indicated by DBI (also impacts July’s revenue escalation), and updated debt service forecasts. Next key event is this month’s AGM. We expect DBI to provide new DPS guidance for the next 12 months at or around that time and target 29.5cps.

PNI has released its 3Q26 update. The key highlight of the update was 3Q26 flows coming in stronger than expected amid a volatile environment, with PNI's additional 6.8% investment in Metrics acting as a further vote of confidence in the business. We make mild upgrades to PNI's FY26F/FY27F/FY28F EPS of ~1%-3%, driven by higher net flow forecasts and the earnings contribution from the increased Metrics stake. Our PT edges up to A$24.70 (from A$23.21) and we maintain our BUY call.

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories.

CoreWeave is a US-based AI cloud provider or Neo Cloud Provider (NCP). It specialises in NVIDIA GPU clusters for training and inference workloads. Listed on Nasdaq in March 2025 with a market cap of approximately US$49bn, CoreWeave operates 43 data centres with 850 megawatts of active power and contracted access to 3.1 gigawatts of total power capacity.

Regis Resources (RRL) will merge with Vault Minerals (VAU), creating a +700kozpa gold producer with a diversified Tier-1 asset base. The deal delivers value drivers for each side: RRL addresses perceived mine life weakness and embeds a longer-dated production growth profile, while VAU benefits from near-term free cash flow uplift and a step-change in scale, supporting potential index inclusion and re-rating potential. We see a clear pathway to re-rating through improved cost of capital, enhanced index inclusion and sustained free cash flow generation. We maintain our BUY rating, price target A$10.07 noting our forecasts remain unchanged until the scheme of arrangement has been approved by VAU shareholders.

Strong volume momentum but earnings leverage dissipated with margin compression and credit risk pressures. FY27-28F EPS/DPS downgraded 4-5% on 2% lower revenue and 1% higher cost base. FY28F EPS/DPS unchanged. Target price down c.3% to $33.07. We moderate from SELL to TRIM, given potential TSR of c.-8% at current prices.

Surprisingly, FLT has maintained its FY26 earnings guidance. It noted that the conflict is creating near-term uncertainty and temporarily disrupting international travel patterns. It is having a more significant impact on Leisure (April profit was down ~A$10m on the pcp). While the reiteration of guidance was better than feared, our concern is that following its key trading period (May-June), FLT will likely need to revise guidance as we expect leisure demand will remain weak. If it wasn't for this conflict, FLT would have had a great year given its results for the first nine months were strong. We have made material revisions to our forecasts and now sit well below guidance. We assume that the conflict and a subdued consumer environment continue to impact the 1H27. We are buyers of FLT post the earnings downgrade given the company is worth materially more than the current share price. We know from past economic and geopolitical events, that after a downturn, travel demand rebounds.

RMS recorded gold production of 38.1koz at an AISC of A$2,211/oz, down on 2Q26 primarily due to a planned 6-day mill shutdown and weather impacts from Cyclone Narelle. Strong operating cash flow of A$171.3m with underlying FCF of A$101.9m after A$51.2m growth capex and A$26.4m exploration investment. Cash & bullion decreased to A$606.5m (Dec-25: A$694.3m), following A$110.2m in share buybacks (44% of the A$250m buyback allocation). We forecast FY26 production within guided midrange of 192.1koz; AISC guidance revised to A$1,900-2,050/oz driven by Dalgaranga commercial production reclassification (~A$100/oz), diesel (~A$35/oz) and royalties (~A$40/oz). We maintain our BUY rating, with a price target of $6.10ps (previously A$6.21).

AX1 has provided a soft trading update for 2H26, revising guidance lower and disclosed an ASIC insider trading investigation. The trading update for AX1 has materially softened since the update in February, with the escalations in the Middle East resulting in higher fuel prices and lower consumer confidence which in turn has impacted sales and margins. 2H26 EBIT guidance has been lowered to $23-28m (from $30-35m). We have lowered our EBIT by 9%/6% respectively in FY26/27. Our valuation lowers to $1.00, which we apply a 25% discount to derive a target price of $0.75. This reflects the weakening consumer backdrop, as well as overhang from ASIC investigation. We maintain our BUY recommendation.