Research notes

ORA’s 1H26 result was slightly above expectations. The Cans segment was a key highlight, delivering strong volume growth driven by the continued shift toward aluminium and expansion in new categories. The global spirits and wine market, however, continues to be under pressure across most geographies. FY26 guidance was largely maintained with management continuing to expect earnings to be higher in Cans, Saverglass EBIT (in €) to be broadly in line with FY25, and Gawler EBIT of ~$30m. ORA also announced a new $270m on-market share buyback (~10% of issued capital) after the company bought back $101m worth of shares in 1H26. We make minimal changes to earnings forecasts, and our target price remains unchanged at $2.30. HOLD rating maintained.

Garda is proving itself an adept asset allocator, selling down development sites at a time when equity returns are challenged, whilst reallocating debt to capture superior risk adjusted returns. Recent divestments leave the business with low gearing (20.8%), while the incremental dollar drawn is being allocated to private credit and as such tied to the movement in the cash rate. Existing vacancy (Acacia Ridge) and development upside (Morningside) should see Property FFO grow, while the expanded loan book should deliver higher Lending FFO. Offsetting the positive business fundamentals is weak sentiment towards interest rate sensitive stocks. On this basis, we retain our Accumulate rating with a $1.35/sh price target.

VVA reported a solid 1H26 result, delivering on its strategy to focus on optimising the existing network and growing the high margin technology, payments, licensing and retail division. The outlook for the remainder of FY26 looks positive, with updated guidance for FY26 which exceeded the 4Q25 annualised run-rate at EBITDA by ~5%. We have made modest EBITDA upgrades in FY26/27/28 and our target price increases to $2.00 (from $1.80), and we retain our BUY recommendation.

PME delivered record revenue and underlying EBIT up ~30% YoY, yet the result fell short of expectations on operating leverage with a jump in staff costs driving an EBITDA miss as Trinity contributed less than anticipated. The longer-term outlook strengthened with more than A$280m of new contracts signed and five-year contracted revenue now around A$1.1bn, though the market remains wary of a heavy 2H execution load and cost base increase. It is not ideal to deliver a miss in this market, but the reaction feels overcooked and the setup into 2H is far better than the share price implies. Our valuation is reduced to A$275 (from A$290) and we retain our Buy recommendation.

HDN delivered a consistent set of results, with property fundamentals seeing NOI growth at +4.6% (vs pcp) and NTA growth of 5.4% (vs Jun-25). However, higher rates and increased debt saw FFO growing a more modest 2.8% - a trend we expect to continue as the business navigates potentially higher rates. Given HDN is trading at a 17% discount to NTA, with a 6.7% distribution yield (FY26), there is cause to see value. However, it appears FFO growth greater than inflation may remain elusive for the medium term. On this basis, we retain our Accumulate rating with a $1.40/sh price target.

Named one of Time Magazine’s Best Companies of 2024, KLA Corporation makes high-tech equipment used in the production of semiconductors, which are essential components in electronic devices like smartphones and computers. It helps manufacturers improve the quality and efficiency of their production processes by providing tools that detect and analyse defects in the manufacturing process.

MQG has hosted its annual operational briefing, together with releasing its 3Q26 update.  On the 3Q26 update, we saw this as a solid performance overall, benefitting from market-facing businesses (CGM and Macquarie Capital) seeing results “substantially up” on the pcp. Additionally, there was an underlying upgrade to CGM guidance, albeit this has been offset, to some degree, by an expected higher FY26 tax rate. We lift our MQG FY26F/FY27F EPS by +2%/+4% reflecting the more positive CGM commentary, blunted somewhat by higher expected tax. Our target price rises to ~$223 (from A$214). We maintain our HOLD recommendation.

We recently attended a site visit to TCG’s Afema Gold Project in Côte d’Ivoire. Afema represents one of the largest undeveloped gold projects on the ASX, hosting a 4.06Moz resource at 1.2g/t Au. The visit included all key resource prospects, future growth corridors, site infrastructure, core yard and a visit through the local community - reinforcing both the scale of the system and development readiness. We maintain our BUY rating and lift our price target to A$2.19ps (previously A$1.63ps).

CBA delivered a meaningful beat of 1H26 earnings expectations. We have materially upgraded our EPS forecasts after factoring in continuation of higher loan growth and benign credit loss environments. We expect DPS growth won’t match EPS growth as we see approaching CET1 capital tightness. Target price lifted to $124.26. SELL retained, with potential TSR of -24% (including 3% cash yield) at current elevated prices and trading multiples.

JHX delivered a clean Q3 beat with sequential margin improvement, disciplined execution on AZEK integration, and early evidence that volumes in core Siding & Trim (S&T) are stabilising at low levels. While NPAT remains temporarily weighed by amortisation and higher interest, the underlying margin trajectory and synergy capture both point to improving earnings quality into FY27. With US housing likely near the trough, we see medium-term upside as organic growth returns, synergies compound, and leverage falls toward <2.0x by 3Q28. We retain our BUY rating and lift our valuation to A$45.75/sh.