Research notes

3Q26 cash profit growth trailed 2H26 consensus expectations, driven by slower revenue growth (particularly the relatively higher quality net interest income). No change to FY26F EPS, but FY27/28F moderated on lower net interest income growth outlook. DCF valuation declines -3% to $35.19/sh. TRIM retained. Potential TSR c.-5% at current prices (including c.4.4% yield).

AEL posted solid underlying earnings of A$45m, up from A$9m a year earlier, with the company continuing to deliver operationally. The market’s appetite for exploration in the sector remains depressed, but AEL stated that post delivering ECSP growth, it plans to target cash returns to shareholders. We maintain a BUY rating with a A$2.90 target price (previously A$3.05).

MME’s FY26 result was largely pre-released. The business achieved gross revenue of ~A$249m, on a gross loan book of ~A$2.1bn. Momentum in originations growth (+34% to A$1.2bn) and a stronger exit RNIM (> 3.5%) augurs well for FY27, and we continue to expect MME to maintain a balance between profitability and growth as it seeks to benefit from scale. Our price target remains unchanged at A$0.21 and we maintain our Speculative Buy recommendation.

FY26 result was mixed, with underlying NPAT of A$322m, 6% above our forecast, despite revenue of A$2,348m being broadly in line. The result benefited from a stronger 2H, particularly Services and cochlear implant (CI) volumes, although margins remained under pressure. Notably, Nexa adoption has been solid, capturing >95% of developed-market (DM) implants, but has yet to translate into an acceleration in underlying market growth. FY27 NPAT guidance of A$330-350m implies only modest growth and not yet a material earnings inflection. We adjusted FY27-28 estimates modestly, with our target price increasing to A$138.42 on multiple roll-forward. HOLD.

BRG delivered A$207m EBIT (+1% yoy) in line with guidance, in what was an exceptionally challenging year as the group navigated a volatile tariff backdrop and ongoing supply chain shocks via geopolitical conflicts. Revenue growth was slightly below expectations (~2%), as FX headwinds in the 2H (US ~10%; EMEA ~5%) detracted from the topline. Growth on a constant currency (cc) basis remains solid (+10%), and ongoing premiumisation tailwinds, and coffee (up double digits), have continued into FY27. We view BRG as having emerged from this transitional year as a better business, with a robust outlook. New market expansion continues to accelerate (+74% yoy), the NPD pipeline is strong and new initiatives (Best Buy) are driving a material step-change in sell out performance. We expect FY27 forecasts may prove conservative, with BRG able to return to a sustainable level of growth in FY27. We move to an ACCUMULATE (from BUY) purely on a valuation basis.

EBO has posted its FY26 results and FY27 guidance, which were in line with consensus (Visible Alpha). The result was achieved despite higher fuel costs and FX headwinds and resulted in a ~10% jump in the share price. After a capital-intensive few years, management is asking the market and investors to look forward to the business returning to EPS growth from FY28. We have made modest changes to forecasts. Our target price is now A$22.93 (previously A$22.92). We maintain our Buy recommendation.

It was a challenging year for STP, following a significant pricing and promotional reset, which impacted sales and earnings. STP reported FY26 revenue down 27% to $63.7m, and reported a $1.7m EBITDA profit excluding the $9.1m inventory obsolescence provision. Our valuation lowers in line with earnings revisions in outer years, and lower peer multiples. We retain our HOLD recommendation with a $0.16 price target.

2Q26 delivered record revenue, a second FY26 guidance upgrade, and net cash burn nearly halved QoQ, the clearest balance sheet de-risking since the cost reset. PermeaDerm-I hit its primary endpoint (70% cheaper than allograft, comparable healing). Small study, but a useful lead indicator for Cohealyx/RECELL cross-sell. The two updates support a more positive view on execution and portfolio breadth, though cash remains thin enough and debt balance big enough to keep a cautious stance. Our target price rises to A$2.20 p/s but given the share price rally, we move to a SELL recommendation. Happy to let the share price settle at current levels.

HUB’s FY26 Group result was largely in line with expectations with underlying EBITDA of A$211.4m, up 30% on pcp, consistent with MorgansF/Consensus A$212m, and underlying NPAT of A$137.3m slightly ahead of MorgansF A$131.9m. Platform EBITDA however fell short of expectations due to slower revenue momentum in 2H26, which was outpaced by 2H26 Platform Opex growth. HUB’s FY28 FUA target of A$186-200bn points to FY28 net flows of ~A$18-19bn, however momentum through to Aug’26 appears to be running behind this due to elevated discretionary gross outflows. Whilst the timing of this roll-off remains uncertain, we see this as a near-term headwind and likely to abate, although it does suggest FY27 flows will track lower than FY26 (particularly vs. 1H26). Our EPS forecast moves by +/-1% in FY27-28F, which sees our price target revised to A$92.00/sh. We retain our Accumulate rating.

The Tallebung PFS outlines a capital-efficient, high-margin tin-tungsten-silver project with a base-case pre-tax NPV8 of A$438m and pre-tax IRR of 69% (US$45,000/t Sn, US$1,500/mtu WO3, US$50/oz Ag). The PFS mine plan draws on only ~66% of the current 32.7Mt Resource by tonnes and ~42% of contained tin, leaving significant scope for reserve conversion and mine-life extensions ahead of the DFS. Upside is further supported by deliberately conservative tungsten and silver recovery and payability assumptions. Following an analyst change, we maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating and raise our price target to A$0.40 per share (previously A$0.35).