Research notes

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) designs, manufactures, and launches rockets and spacecraft, operates a global satellite broadband network through its Starlink service, and following the February 2026 acquisition of xAI, develops artificial intelligence products including the Grok model and associated computing infrastructure. Founded in 2002 by Elon Musk, SpaceX's stated mission is to reduce the cost of space transportation and ultimately make humanity multi planetary. Its customers span commercial satellite operators, government and defence agencies, and individual consumers and enterprises subscribing to Starlink broadband across more than 160 countries.

ASML is the world’s leading supplier of advanced lithography systems used in the manufacturing of semiconductors, with a dominant position in deep ultraviolet (DUV) and an effective monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) technology. The company’s systems are critical to the production of sophisticated microchips. ASML’s product portfolio includes High-NA EUV and Low-NA EUV lithography systems, ArF immersion, KrF and i-line DUV systems for both advanced and mature nodes, advanced packaging lithography, and metrology, inspection, and computational lithography solutions that optimise yield and productivity. Its customers are global semiconductor foundries, logic and memory manufacturers (e.g., TSMC/Samsung/Intel), supported by long-term relationships, high switching costs and a growing installed base that underpins recurring service revenue. Headquartered in Veldhoven, Netherlands, ASML was founded in 1984 and is listed on Euronext Amsterdam and NASDAQ.

Meta Platforms, Inc. (formerly known as Facebook, Inc.) is a leading global technology platform business headquartered in Menlo Park, California, US. Co-founded in 2004 by Mark Zuckerberg, Meta's mission is to connect people and build community through its innovative technology portfolio and social networking platforms.

We recently visited SKY’s Tallebung tin-tungsten-silver project ~70km north-west of Condobolin in central-western NSW. >Our key takeaways: the site is accessible and heavily disturbed by more than a century of mining, with obvious geology (coarse cassiterite visible from surface). We see the brownfield footprint as supportive of permitting and SKY’s path to first production in mid-CY28. >We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a A$0.47ps target price (from A$0.40), incorporating changes to our price deck and mining assumptions.

SFR’s 1Q27 result was softer than expectations but overall in-line with guidance. >Group CuEq was -3%/-7% vs consensus/MorgansF and underlying EBITDA was -13%/-11% vs consensus/MorgansF, largely driven by lower than expected zinc volumes out of MATSA. >The quarter still ran exactly at the FY27 guidance midpoint run-rate (25% of CuEq). Production, cost and capex guidance were all maintained. >Net cash of US$342m was down only US$11m qoq, after paying a US$117m fully franked dividend that was largely funded from quarterly free cash flow. >Upgrade to BUY following recent share price weakness with an unchanged A$23ps target price.

Nike, Inc. is a global leader in athletic footwear, apparel and equipment with an estimated market share in 2023 of 39% (investing.com). Nike’s iconic ‘Swoosh’ logo is one of the most recognisable consumer brands in the world. Nike sells directly through over 1,000 retail stores and ecommerce platforms, as well as through wholesale channels. It employs a contract manufacturing model.

Top-end of saleable guidance in sight – Managed ROM production of 5.28Mt exceeded expectations, with South Walker Creek continuing to outperform and ROM inventories building materially across the portfolio. We believe these stockpiles position SMR to deliver saleable production modestly above the top end of FY26 guidance. >Coal prices drive upgrades – We have increased our metallurgical and thermal coal price assumptions to reflect stronger market conditions. Combined with strong operational performance, this drives meaningful upgrades to our FY26 & FY27 revenue, EBITDA and NPAT forecasts. >Surprise dividend – SMR declared a fully franked US2.2cps interim dividend. While modest in size, the payment demonstrates confidence in cash flow generation from the current coal price environment. >We maintain our HOLD rating with an increased price target of A$2.85ps (previously A$2.75ps).

Palo Alto Networks, Inc. is a global cybersecurity leader headquartered in Santa Clara, California. Founded in 2005, the company provides advanced security platforms including next-generation firewalls, cloud security via Prisma Cloud, secure access through Prisma Access, and AI-driven security operations with its Cortex platform.

In the context of a challenging consumer environment, UNI has delivered a robust trading update at its AGM for the first 17 weeks of FY27. Total direct to consumer sales are up 9.3%. LFL sales in the core Universal Store banner remained broadly consistent with the first 7 weeks, against a strong comp in the pcp. Perfect Stranger has delivered double digit LFL sales growth and CTC/ THRILLS remains volatile. >Gross margins continue to benefit from PS mix and favourable FX is offsetting higher transport costs. We also anticipate ongoing cost investment, but we expect cost growth to moderate. UNI has a strong pipeline of new store openings (16-20 in FY27), which will support total sales growth. >We have made minor revisions to forecasts (<1%) and no changes to our valuation. BUY maintained with a $10.20 price target.

AOV delivered a softer trading update, with 1Q27 LFL sales down 5% yoy. >The Powertrain & Undercar (PTU) segment delivered marginal sales growth, with flat Lighting, Power & Electrical (LPE) sales and a materially weaker 4WD result. >Positively, the group is targeting a further ~A$10m pa in net efficiency benefits (2H weighted), acquired a controlling stake in a high-ROIC filtration business (VAFI), formed a strategic alliance with US performance aftermarket brand owner Holley (HLLY-US) and announced a further 5% share buyback. >Whilst FY27 sales and EBITA guidance (ex VAFI) has been cut to up to a 5% decline on FY26 continuing ops, the group expects a broadly flat result including the VAFI consolidation. >Despite progress across various strategic initiatives, earnings growth expectations remain anaemic, which will likely cap any potential re-rate for the stock. HOLD.