Research notes

We make minor updates to FY26-27 forecasts ahead of the FY26 result, largely related to balance sheet growth (moderated). >Target price unchanged at $31.67/sh. >TRIM retained, given potential TSR at current prices of c.-9%.

MIN delivered a strong 1Q27 result, with record volumes across Mining Services, Onslow and Wodgina, and costs at or below forecasts at most sites. FY27 guidance was maintained across all divisions. >Net debt was -5% qoq to A$4.1bn and is expected to decline further in 1H27 post the receipt of proceeds from its lithium sell-down to POSCO. >BUY maintained with a lower A$61ps target price (from A$65ps).

MFG has hosted its AGM and given a market update. >We read this as a softer market update overall. 1Q27 trading was subdued, with weakness in Financial Markets and Investment Management. Positively, Corporate Finance remains strong, and the MFG/Barrenjoey integration is running well ahead of schedule, with pre-tax synergies upgraded to A$15m p.a. (from A$6m). >We reduce our FY27F/FY28F EPS by 5%-8% reflecting softer trading conditions in Financial Markets in 1Q27 and higher near term costs associated with the NZ business build out. Our PT falls to A$8.66 (previously A$10.25). >Move to BUY rating, with >20% TSR upside.

A solid 3Q26 result, with EBITDA, NPAT and FCF ahead of consensus and FY26 cost guidance improved. >Capital returns continue to run ahead of our expectations, with US$1.9bn returned since the last call. >We lift our cost and capex assumptions, reducing our target price 9% to A$177ps. Move to ACCUMULATE (from BUY).

SLD has initiated a voluntary US recall of certain Evoke Closed Loop Stimulators, due to unintended stimulation or charging failure, with 26 complaints recorded across c3,900 potentially affected implanted devices (0.66%). >SLD has traced the root cause to a third-party manufacturing process, which has subsequently been corrected and validated, and estimates an additional 29 complaints over the remaining life of the affected devices. >No serious patient impairment has been reported, yet given the requirement for surgical replacement, FDA is likely to classify the incident as a Class I recall. >Notably, costs are expected to be contained within FY27 guidance, supported by the potential recovery of affected inventory through a proposed screening process. >FY27-29 forecasts remain unchanged, but our DCF-based target price moves to A$1.61(from A$2.17) on an increased risk profile. SPECULATIVE BUY maintained.

Anglo American (AAL.LSE) is a London-based miner that has spent the past two years cutting back to copper and premium iron ore. Copper comes from Chile and Peru and iron ore from Kumba in South Africa and Minas-Rio in Brazil, alongside a 40% stake in Samancor manganese and the Woodsmith crop nutrients project in the UK.

NCK released a disappointing 1H FY27 trading update, with underlying NPAT guidance of $28-32m (~18% below consensus at the midpoint). ANZ conditions have deteriorated materially, with 1Q27 written sales orders (WSO) down 15% on the pcp and store traffic down ~10% amid a softening housing market and subdued consumer environment. We reduce our NPAT forecasts by 26.9%, 23.7% and 19.5% across FY27-29. We maintain our Accumulate rating and have a $13.89 target price.

A mixed quarter, with copper production ~7% below MorgansF/consensus and costs above guidance, driven by a late-quarter seismic event at Eloise and earlier-than-planned plant shutdowns for cutover works. >The miss was largely timing related, with the higher-grade Deeps and Lens 6 ore rescheduled rather than lost. The Eloise plant expansion and Jericho are both running ahead of schedule. FY27 guidance maintained. >We maintain our BUY rating and A$1.20ps target price.

MGH released a corporate update on 16-Oct, confirming settlement of the Construction Materials (CM) divestment, including the receipt of $1.61bn, the paydown of syndicated debt and $600m of retained cash. Post tax payable and incorporating the buyback, we estimate net debt stands at ~$50m. With the balance sheet in solid order, the MGH investment thesis hinges on Firmus: both the value of the stake and the volume of flow-on work. >Our baseline assumes the prior valuation of Firmus at $4.60/sh ($230/sh pre-split, pre-tax) holds, along with a run-rate for the ‘Power Cubes’ >200MW pa. Even if we were to assume both the Firmus investment and ‘Power Cube’ contribution halved (vs our expectations), our valuation would still be ~$4/sh, offering downside protection at current levels (refer to sensitivity analysis in Figure 3). On this basis, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with a $5.90/sh price target.

SOL released its FY26 result in late September, its first full year following the Brickworks merger. We update our model and valuation accordingly. In our view, the portfolio's cash generation held up through a year of significant restructuring, which included A$12.7bn of transactions, the A$1.9bn sale of the industrial property JV interests and a rotation out of listed equities into Fixed Income and private markets. >Credit, Private Companies and Real Assets drove NCFI up 11.5% on pcp to A$572m. A 63cps fully franked final dividend was declared, taking the FY26 total to 111cps (+7.8%) and extending the record to 28 consecutive years of dividend increases. Pre-tax NAV was A$13.7bn, a 10.2% return against 6.0% for the ASX200 Total Return Index. >Our price target is increased to A$44 (from A$41.85). Our changes to forecasts are overleaf. With the stock trading around our 12-month price target we maintain our HOLD recommendation. We remain attracted to the SOL business and its capital allocation strategy and continue to look for attractive entry points.