Research notes

FY26 delivered solid organic growth, reinforcing our view that the core business is not structurally broken, but little operating leverage. Underlying EBITDA of A$1,933m (+11%) was broadly in line, while NPAT of A$621m (+17%) was 4% ahead, albeit including material NRIs. FY27 outlook is less compelling, with cc EBITDA guidance of A$1.95-2.03bn (+1-5%), with multiple cost and regulatory headwinds absorbing much of the benefit from continued organic growth, US operational improvements and acquisition synergies. We reduce FY27-28 underlying earnings and lower our target price to A$22.40. We move to HOLD, reflecting limited near-term earnings momentum and a lack of catalysts for share price outperformance.

NWH delivered a strong FY26, with NPATA/EPSA up +44%. Strong growth is set to continue with management guiding to FY27 EBITA of $320-330m. The levers into FY27 are clear. Mining will grow strongly from South Walker Creek expansion, Meandu commencement and latent fleet capacity. EMIT should benefit from margin expansion and tailwinds from rising DC demand, and Civil is leveraged to rising public infrastructure spend. MET faces the KCGM roll-off and is where we see some risk, but active tenders are a record >$2bn. We lift FY27-FY28 NPATA forecasts by +9-11% and raise our target price to $8.80 (from $8.00).

UNI reported 17.2% underlying EBIT growth to $64.0m, driven by sales growth (+12.9%), gross margin expansion (+140bps) and disciplined cost investment. Another year of strong execution through a challenging retail environment. The trading update was solid and UNI has guided to an accelerating store rollout pipeline, expecting 16-20 new stores in FY27 (13 in FY26). We have increased EBITDA by 0.7%/2.7% in FY27/28 respectively, although EBIT declines 3.0%/2.0% driven by higher depreciation costs. We retain our BUY recommendation, with a target price of $10.20 (was $9.50).

BXB’s FY26 result was broadly in line with expectations and management’s guidance. However, FY27 guidance was marginally softer at the midpoint, with earnings expected to be skewed to 2H27 as US repair capacity constraints impact performance in 1H27. While like-for-like volumes were lower amid challenging operating conditions, this was more than offset by price realisation and net new business wins. We adjust FY27/28/29F underlying EBIT by 0%/0%/-2%. Our target price falls slightly to $18.60 (from $18.70). While management remains on track to resolve the US repair capacity constraints by the end of 1H27, there is still some execution risk to deliver the expected strong earnings uplift in 2H27. In addition, the macroeconomic environment remains soft, weighing on consumer demand. Trading on 18.2x FY27F PE with a 3.5% yield, we continue to see the stock as fully valued and maintain our HOLD rating.

FY26 result was in line with a 30cps final dividend beating both MorgansF and consensus, while FY27 guidance met expectations at the headline level despite KCGM ramp-up risk. Move to a HOLD (previously ACCUMULATE) with a A$25ps target price. We expect the near-term valuation discount to persist until operating & strategic clarity improves post KCGM ramp-up and new CEO beginning in October.

TTX finished the year in a strong cash position after achieving many milestones (clinical, regulatory, licensing, infrastructure build) in its first year as a listed company. We have made minimal changes to our forecasts, and our target price remains unchanged at A$8.59. Numerous catalysts are approaching in FY27 that should keep investor interest high. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation.

GHY is evaluating production of Hydrogen and Helium at its wholly-owned Ramsay project, on the Yorke Peninsula, South Australia on Petroleum Exploration Licence (PEL) 687, of 7,820km2 which also covers Kangaroo Island. A production flow test of Helium from the productive Kulpara Dolomite in Ramsay #1, using Quantum Technology of Canada equipment, has enabled GHY to separate, capture and concentrate Helium on site and demonstrate producibility. Recent negative commentary about Hydrogen relates to production by hydrolysis Naturally-occurring Hydrogen, as at Ramsay, remains both financially and environmentally viable with global demand in 2020 estimated by McKinsey and Hydrogen Council (Homepage Hydrogen Council) close to 100Mtpa.

Given SLC upgraded FY26 EBITDA guidance in mid-June 2026 and won’t provide FY27 guidance until it’s AGM in November, the result was largely as expected. It is worth noting underlying EBITDA was slightly above the top end of guidance, marking the third upgrade in FY26. The composition of the result underpins our comfort that FY27 consensus expectations for ~$150m of underlying EBITDA are achievable. We retain our HOLD recommendation but lift our Target Price to $3.40.

TLC delivered a resilient FY26 result against a 1 in c.45 year jackpot cycle, with base game growth of 5.6% and opex of $296m, below the guided range, offsetting the c.$350m revenue impact from soft jackpots. Price retention held up well, with 63% on Powerball and 100% on Saturday lotto, and the dividend was maintained at 16.5cps. Looking ahead, new FY27 guidance rebases opex to $305-315m and D&A to $125-130m, and with conditions still softer against undemanding comps, we have cut our top-line Lotteries forecasts by 2-3% across FY27-28F. Below the line, the reclassification of Keno revenue, the exit from online Keno and higher interest costs following the Victorian licence renewal drive c.6-7% EPS cuts. We retain our Hold recommendation, with a revised price target of $5.60 (prev. $5.70).

WHC delivered a mixed result, with EBITDA broadly in line with consensus expectations, although underlying NPAT missed slightly. A 6c dividend was declared, consistent with consensus. The effects of poor coal prices in the 1H provided a significant headwind for the full-year result. FY27 guidance was softer than expected, with production growth appearing limited given the unchanged upper end of group guidance, while both costs and capital expenditure expectations have moved higher. We move to a HOLD rating (previously BUY) due to recent share price strength and valuation updates with a reduced target price of A$8.05ps (previously A$8.50)