Research notes

McDonald’s Corporation (MCD.NYS) is a global QSR (Quick Service Restaurant) business known for signature menu items such as the Big Mac, Quarter Pounder, Chicken McNuggets, and Fries. The Golden Arches logo is one of the most instantly recognisable symbols of American consumer culture in the world.

PWH has identified the aircraft maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) market as a long-term growth opportunity. Management noted that the MRO opportunity over an aircraft's operating life can significantly exceed the initial manufacturing opportunity, reflecting recurring maintenance, repair and overhaul requirements over a typical 20-30 year service life. >Given MRO work is generally more repeatable and scalable, this creates an opportunity for PWH to improve production efficiency (particularly during non-peak periods) and improve margins over time. >Although revenue has not been disclosed, management noted that MRO revenue grew 356% in FY26 off a low base, implying current revenue is likely still in the single-digit millions. With 12 parts currently in production and a potential product catalogue that could eventually reach around 100 parts, we believe MRO has the potential to become a meaningful contributor to group revenue over time. >We make no changes to our earnings forecasts and $12.55 target price. ACCUMULATE rating maintained.

3Q26 revenue of US$2.49m was in line with guidance, while adjusted EBITDA loss of US$14.84m was better than our expectation. >While 40 implants were completed in 3Q26 (pre-released), with September activity half the July/August monthly average, management reports early signs of improvement following its commercial realignment. >With 40 active sites, 57 commercial contracts and 100 trained physicians, the commercial infrastructure is established, but the key remains converting this into consistent procedure volumes. >We adjust CY26-28 estimates, with our DCF-based valuation moving to A$1.15. Maintain SPECULATIVE BUY.

We initiate on Glencore (GLC) with a BUY rating and an A$11.90 per CDI TP. >We see GLC as significantly differentiated from fellow global majors BHP and RIO, and view it more as a portfolio complement. >We see potential for GLC to be included in the S&P/ASX 300 in the March 2027 quarterly rebalance. >GLC is a highly diversified business and we believe its pipeline gives the copper division scope for material growth over the next decade.

BB1 has released positive data from a study in people with a rare genetic form of autism supporting the broader use of its technology. >There are multiple catalysts coming to maintain investor interest, in or view, particularly completion of recruitment of the autism trial expected before year end. >We have made no changes to forecasts or target price (A$1.76). SPECULATIVE BUY.

MND’s idea of a “consolidation year” in FY27 was well ahead of the market’s previous expectations for +3% NPAT growth. The company is expecting 1H27 NPAT of $80-85m (+23-31% YoY), 25-33% ahead of 1H VA consensus ($64m), on revenue of ~$1.7bn (vs consensus $1.5bn), driven by strong E&C demand and improved mix. Clearly, the cycle waits for no-one, not even MND. Management’s guidance for a moderating 2H is not unusual in Maintenance but may turn out to be conservative for E&C, with recent major E&C contracts contributing for a full six months. We see the cycle strengthening into FY28 as mega-projects across gold, lithium, rare earths and possibly energy and iron ore ramp up. We upgrade FY27 EBITDA by +10% to $280m and NPAT by +11% to $159m, with outer-year earnings up +11-12%. Our target price rises to $38.50 (from $35.80). BUY maintained.

Light & Wonder (LNW) delivered a mixed 3Q26 result. Revenue missed both our estimates and consensus, and Adj-EBITDA landed shy of consensus, yet NPATA came in well ahead on lower stock-based compensation, interest and tax. Gaming and iGaming held up, but SciPlay deteriorated further and is now under new leadership with a reset that will run into FY27. The main positive for us was cash, with Adj. free cash flow (FCF) of US$181m funding US$156m of debt reduction, taking leverage down to 3.3x. FY26 guidance was narrowed to the lower end of the mid- to high-single-digit range. We lower our FY26-27F Adj-EBITDA estimates by 2.4% and 2.3%, respectively. We continue to see the stock as materially undervalued given its valuation, albeit with higher near-term volatility. In our view, the set-up into FY27 remains attractive, supported by installed base growth, Gaming content rollout and ongoing deleveraging. We maintain our Buy recommendation, with a target price of A$165 (previously A$174).

VNT has announced a restructuring and business simplification ($30m) which is expected to deliver >$60m of gross annualised cost savings by Dec-27. Challenging conditions in Telecommunications and Energy mean 2H26 revenue is now expected to be below the pcp, although productivity initiatives are substantially mitigating the earnings impact and VNT still expects +7-10% NPATA growth in FY26 (ex one-off costs). The key issues, in our view, are (1) whether VNT can return to revenue growth in FY27 and (2) if its strong margins are sustainable in the context of a more challenging Telecommunications landscape. We make minor forecast changes and our target price falls to $4.95 (from $5.95).

FY26 underlying EBIT and NPAT were at the mid-point of guidance. However, cashflow disappointed and gearing was higher than expected. >FY27 Explosives EBIT guidance (including ~A$35m of turnaround and maintenance impacts) was 4% below VA consensus, and higher interest and tax will further impact NPAT. Due to seasonality and turnarounds, guidance implies that 1H27 is down on the pcp, followed by solid growth in 2H27. We have downgraded our FY27/28 EBIT by 4.8%/0.9% and NPAT by 10.4%/5.0%. Importantly, DNL’s FY28 and FY31 EBIT ambitions remain unchanged. >We upgrade to an Accumulate rating (from Hold) following today's material share price weakness. Our price target falls to A$3.85 (was A$4.42).