Research notes

We retain an ACCUMULATE, whilst reducing our target to $1.33/sh (from $1.36) following a FY26 result that was in line on FFO and DPS, and FY27 guidance of 8.8cps that sits 2% below the pcp and c.4% below our prior forecast. The shortfall is entirely financing. Comparable NPI growth is guided at +4.0%, but higher debt costs more than offset it. Distributions are held at 8.6c, a 7.1% yield, though at c.98% of FFO this leaves limited retained earnings to fund the developments. Like most of its peers, HDN cannot grow FFO (ps) while debt costs transition higher towards market, something we expect to persist through FY27 and into FY28. Hedging at 68% with 0.8 years of tenor leaves limited protection, and selective asset recycling is now the stated route back below the gearing midpoint. Against that, NTA rose 6.1% to $1.56 in what remains a deep and liquid physical market, whilst the securities trade at a 23% discount (to NTA). On a 7.1% yield with that asset backing, we still see value.

TLS’s FY26 result and FY27 guidance were largely as expected, with FY26 itself coming in at the middle-to-top end of guidance. This largely in-line result wasn’t enough for the marginal buyer and TLS shares ended the day down 3%. We lift FY27/28 EPS by ~4%. Our target price is reduced to $5 as we remove our previously applied premium to valuation. Hold recommendation retained.

AMC’s FY26 result was broadly in line with expectations, although the outlook was slightly weaker. Key positives: Volumes turned positive (+0.5%) in 4Q26 vs -1.5% in 3Q26; full-year synergies of US$285m were ahead of AMC’s ~US$270m target. Key negatives: FY26 free cash flow of US$1.3bn fell short of management’s US$1.5-1.6bn target due to higher-than-expected working capital related to the Middle East conflict; guidance for the stub period (six months to Dec-26) of underlying EPS of US$1.80-1.90 was below our forecast of US$1.94. We decrease CY27-28F underlying EPS by 3-4%, mainly due to higher net interest expense. Our target price declines slightly to A$65.30 (from A$65.40) and, with a 12-month forecast TSR of 4%, we downgrade our rating to HOLD (from ACCUMULATE).

The tungsten market has split, with Chinese restrictions leading to price premiums at Rotterdam and Baltimore, where the price for ammonium paratungstate (APT) has lifted from sub-US$40,000/t in 2024/25 to currently US$290,000/t. EQR reported relatively weak production at both its mines, with 28,315 metric tonne units (mtu) produced in the June 2026 quarter, and full year production of 118,945mtu (1,169.4t). Our expectation is for close to 300,000mtu in FY2027. EQR has announced that it will seek to list on the NASDAQ or NYSE. Almonty Industries (NASDAQ:ALM), also listed on the ASX, and Frankfurt, and with production aspirations comparable with EQR, has a market capitalisation of US$4.3 billion at US$13.35ps, ~4 times EQR’s Market Cap.

VYS is acquiring water management business Welltech for $60m, including deferred consideration, at ~5x FY26 EBIT or ~6x FY27F EBIT. The acquisition appears strategically sound as it materially increases the annuity-style earnings base, with high returns, and diversifies earnings away from the legacy hydrogeological drilling business. We lift our FY27/FY28 EPS forecasts by +13%/+16%. Moreover, positive water pricing indications in the Pilbara lead us to increase our assumed price of water for VAM to $5.50/kL, from $4/kL. Our target price rises to $1.40 (from $1.10).

SUN’s FY26 NPAT of A$1.04bn came in marginally ahead (+1.5%) of consensus (A$1.02bn), noting several key result items had already been pre-released. The key positives from the result, in our view, were the additional capital returns announced, the flagged potential margin upside stemming from SUN's new reinsurance structure; and catastrophe budget resilience. The main negative was arguably the flat unit growth in consumer home and motor insurance during 2H26. We make relatively minor adjustments to SUN FY27F/FY28F EPS of -3% respectively, mainly on reduced insurance trading ratio assumptions. Our PT rises to A$20 (from $18.89) with our earnings changes offset by a valuation roll-forward. We believe SUN's management has executed well in recent years, successfully steering the company's strategy as a pure play general insurer. However, with the upside to our price target more limited (<10%) we maintain our HOLD recommendation.

CBA delivered a beat (albeit low quality) of consensus expectations. Forecast changes are minimal. Target price lifted to $120.47. SELL retained, given potential TSR of -27% (including 3.0% cash yield) at current elevated prices and trading multiples.

Seek’s (SEK) FY26 result was largely per guidance and broadly in line with expectations. However, softer outlook commentary around APAC volumes (largely macro driven) and FY27 guidance being meaningfully under consensus led to the stock trading lower on result day. Cost control, operating leverage and solid yield growth were the key positives, in our view. We make several assumption changes and integrate FY27 guidance into our numbers (details overleaf). Our DCF-derived price target is lowered to A$19.90.

The Walt Disney Co. operates as a global entertainment company. It owns and operates television and radio production, distribution and broadcasting stations, direct-to-consumer (DTC) services, amusement parks, cruise lines and hotels. It operates through the following business lines: Disney Entertainment, ESPN, and Disney Parks, Experiences, and Products. The company was founded by Walter Elias Disney on 16 October 1923 and is headquartered in Burbank, California.