Research notes

RPL continues to demonstrate its ability to generate performance fees through equity market cycles, with 2HCY25 performance fees of $130m being c.3x times the performance fee booked in 1HCY25. Increased confidence in the recurring nature of the performance fees has seen us increase our expectations over the forecast period, to be within the target range of 40-60 bps of FUM. Despite a solid upgrade to our CY25 earnings forecasts, the valuation impact is relatively muted, a result of the modest earnings multiple applied to average ‘through the cycle’ performance fees. On this basis we retain our BUY rating, increasing our target price to $4.25/sh (previously $4.00/sh).

EDV’s Retail segment delivered an improved sales performance in 2Q26 (+1.8%) following a decline in 1Q26 (-1.4%). However, this growth was driven by sharper pricing and increased promotions, with 1H26 margins expected to be materially lower than the pcp. With the retail liquor market remaining subdued, management said the changes to its pricing strategy were aimed at reinforcing the group’s customer value proposition (underpinned by Dan Murphy’s lowest liquor price guarantee), reignite top-line growth, and respond to an increasingly competitive landscape, particularly online. Management has guided to 1H26 group EBIT of between $555-566m. At the mid-point, this was 5% below both our previous forecast and Visible Alpha consensus. We adjust FY26/27/28 group EBIT forecasts by -5%/-6%/-6%. Our target price remains unchanged at $3.70, with downgrades to earnings forecasts offset by a roll-forward of our model to FY27 forecasts. HOLD rating maintained.

4Q25 delivered a clear step-up in commercial execution, with case volumes doubling q/q and revenue materially ahead of expectations, confirming accelerating physician uptake during the Limited Market Release (LMR). Preliminary 4Q revenue of US$0.87-0.94m exceeded our estimate by c60%, with FY25 revenue of US$1.55-1.62m validating early pricing and demand assumptions. We view clinical momentum with the WiSE-UP post-approval study and the TLC-AU feasibility study as supporting longer-term adoption and label expansion. Updated TAM of US$5.8bn (+60%) highlights a materially larger opportunity, underpinned by growth in leadless pacing and de novo CRT applications. We adjusted CY25-27 forecasts, with our DCF-based valuation increasing to A$2.95. BUY.

We initiate coverage of BMC Minerals with a SPECULATIVE BUY rating and a target price of A$4.90ps. The Kudz Ze Kayah (KZK) project is a high grade undeveloped polymetallic deposit, with high silver equivalent reserve grades of 597g/t AgEq and an indicative ~32Moz Ag per annum production profile. Indicative economics of KZK are solid. We model steady state average annual financials of US$780m revenue, US$435m EBITDA at a 52% EBITDA margin, US$287m FCF and FCF yields of 29% based on precious and base metals price assumptions well below current spot prices. With BMC, we see parallels to past prolific polymetallic/base metals assets which generated strong returns for shareholders: Vares for Adriatic, Nova-Bollinger for Sirius and De Grussa for Sandfire.

The recent share price pullback has provided an opportunity to move our recommendation to HOLD (from TRIM), now offering ~6% TSR to our unchanged target price. Refurbished stores to date have performed above our expectations and management’s target range (15-25%). Up to October, the 3 refurbished stores have seen sales up 30% on the pcp. BBN has now completed 9 refurbishments, and we expect BBN to provide an update on performance at the 1H26 result. We see the risk/ reward now more balanced, and 14x FY27 PE as a fair valuation. We have made no changes to our forecasts or valuation. We have a $2.70 price target.

We update our model in advance of ALX’s FY25 result due to be released on 26 February. Adjustments include: (A) inclusion of 3Q25 traffic/revenue data (Q4 data due to be released on 29 January) and recalibration of APRR traffic forecast model; (B) update to 2026 APRR toll escalation in advance of the official notification (typically in late-Jan/early-Feb) by reflecting France October 2025 CPI (+0.9% YoY, being lower than assumed) as per the toll escalation formula; (C) adjustment to APRR 2025 tax payable calculation; (D) inclusion of Chicago Skyway 2025 bond issue (higher cost than previously assumed on FY26 cost); (E) lower 2027 Dulles Greenway toll increase than previously assumed reflecting the filing announced in December 2025 (which is lower than the CPI catch-up since the last toll increase in 2021); and (F) update for (higher) spot AUDEUR and AUDUSD since our last report. The assumption adjustments result in earnings downgrades for APRR, FY25-26 upgrades for Dulles Greenway (but long term downgrades), and mild upgrades for the Chicago Skyway. Forecast of ALX free cashflow and cash reserves is downgraded (but we still see ALX as capable of sustaining the current DPS of 40 cps until at least the end of the decade). DCF-based business-as-usual valuation of ALX reduces 30 cps to $4.43/sh, due to the forecast changes. 12 month target price (which includes a mild premium for potential takeover activity) declines 31 cps to $4.74/sh.

VBX continue to advance the 95.9Mt Wuudagu bauxite project with recent drilling at Wuudagu D, E and F confirming each to be an additional discovery which may materially contribute to future resource growth. With three additional discoveries confirmed, we see scope for an additional 35-55Mt in potential volume, before applying grade parameters. We are encouraged by average in-situ Al2O3 grades of ~40% across the reported drill datasets which may beneficiate in the same manner as the existing reserve. DFS workstreams supporting the 2026 update are progressing well in parallel with the field season. We expect the DFS to support future off take and financing arrangements. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating, price target A$2.10ps (previously A$1.60ps). Uplift a function of revised risk weighting (75%, previously 80%) following technical de-risking and exploration success.

Salesforce was founded in 1999 in San Francisco, California. It is the leading Customer Relationship Management (CRM) software provider and pioneered Software as a Service (SaaS). Salesforce’s pioneering SaaS model meant it was the first company to have all its software and customer data hosted on the internet and made available via monthly subscription.

NVIDIA Corporation is an American semiconductor company and a global manufacturer of high-end graphics processing units (GPUs). The company is based in California and has five operating segments: (1) Data Center, (2) Gaming, (3) Professional Visualisation, (4) Automotive, and (5) Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM). As the engine of Artificial Intelligence (AI), NVIDIA is committed to accelerating the growth of generative AI, by recognising it as a new computing platform, like the PC, internet and mobile-cloud.

We update our TSO model, adjusting for the recently implemented 15:1 share consolidation. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating and price target of A$4.88ps. TSO remains inexpensive, trading at A$96/oz vs. a peer group average of A$220/oz, accompanied by quantum changing exploration potential.