Research notes

4Q revenue accelerated 43% to US$27m on strong US commercial execution, with FY26 revenue of US$90.2m (+28%), exceeding upgraded guidance of US$87m and ahead of expectations. 4Q US implanted patients increased 50%, supported by 22% growth in active physicians and 23% higher physician utilisation, while the salesforce reached 161 representatives at year-end, ahead of the 154 target. With FY26 revenue now established, the investment debate shifts to FY27 salesforce productivity and operating leverage. Notably, c60% of the US salesforce was fully trained exiting FY26, with management targeting 70-80% during FY27, which we view as the first meaningful test of whether this can translate into materially higher revenue per rep and improving operating margins. We update FY26 revenue, with A$2.94 DCF-based TP unchanged. SPECULATIVE BUY maintained.

Mastercard is a technology company that provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally. It facilitates the processing of payment transactions, including authorisation, clearing, and settlements. The company offers integrated products and value-added services for account holders, merchants, financial institutions, businesses, governments, and other organisations.

ACE’s automated enforcement win in Kentucky is now the third contract of its kind awarded to ACE in the US, leveraging off a successful pilot program in the state and prior wins in Connecticut and Arkansas. ACE’s Kentucky win lifts our revenue & EBITDA forecasts by +1-2% in FY27-28. We roll forward our valuation and reduce the multiple used in our EV/Revenue & GP based price target. This sees our target price reduce to $2.00 (from $2.30). With a growing US pipeline and various contracts/tenders across AUS/US yet to be awarded, we continue to see a number of catalysts ahead of ACE into FY27. With 80% implied TSR, we reiterate our Speculative Buy recommendation.

CCP's FY26 NPAT of A$105.5m (+12% on the pcp) was a record and in line with consensus (VA A$104.4m, MorgansF A$102m). FY27 NPAT guidance of A$110m-118m (+8% vs the pcp at the midpoint) is solid, but the investment outlook is arguably the negative. Ledger investment guidance is down ~21% (midpoint) to A$200m-280m, with US purchasing down ~31% to A$100m-130m as the supply pulls back and competitive pressures persist. Operational efficiency/productivity has improved over FY26, however delivering on US divisional growth remains key to our long-term investment thesis. At ~7.7x FY27F PE, the valuation continues to appear undemanding. BUY retained.

VISA is a global payments technology company that enables fast, secure and reliable electronic payments across more than 200 countries and territories. It facilitates global commerce through the transfer of value and information among a global network of consumers, merchants, financial institutions, businesses, strategic partners, and government entities

We make minor changes to our forecasts ahead of the FY26 result on 20/08 to align with guidance for the second half to be “broadly in line with the first half performance”. We reduce FY26 EBITDA by 3% and FY27-28 by 5%. Our target price of $1.20 remains unchanged on valuation roll-forward.

In our view, ACF’s acquisitions of Ausgroup Industrial Services (AGIS) and Preston SuperDeck are highly complementary to the company’s existing operations, providing both cost and revenue synergies. We note management has a strong track record of extracting value from prior acquisitions. The surplus funds from the capital raise will be used to pay down debt, strengthening the balance sheet and addressing a key investor concern. We estimate the deals will be EPS neutral in FY27, due largely to the extra capital raised to reduce debt. Management indicated EPS accretion would have been double-digit had funding been limited to the acquisitions. Our target price rises slightly to $1.30 (from $1.28) and we maintain our BUY rating.

Shell PLC, previously Royal Dutch Shell PLC, is a British multinational integrated oil and gas company with headquarters in London and operations in over 70 countries. Shell operates across five divisions: Integrated Gas, Upstream, Marketing, Chemicals and Products, Renewables and Energy Solutions.