Research notes

We update our TSO model, adjusting for the recently implemented 15:1 share consolidation. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating and price target of A$4.88ps. TSO remains inexpensive, trading at A$96/oz vs. a peer group average of A$220/oz, accompanied by quantum changing exploration potential.

MX1 has raised A$6.2m, taking the funding question off the table. One of MX1’s major shareholders has provided ~50% of the funding. The funds will be used for working capital to assist the growing sales pipeline for the Rover Plus and help fund the head CT clinical trial. We have included the capital raise into our model which results in a minor dilution moving our valuation to A$0.16 (from $0.17). We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation.

CHN released a Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) for the Gonneville Pd-Ni-Cu project. The PFS was broadly in line with MorgansF, with key beats to Stage 1 capex (-9%) and palladium payabilities (+7%). Macro tailwinds are turning supportive: the EU is moving to soften its 2035 ICE ban (supportive for hybrids/Pd demand) while the already small ~9Mozpa palladium market is tightening, running an estimated ~0.2Moz deficit even before any meaningful industrial demand uplift. We reiterate our SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a A$4.50ps target price (previously A$2.90ps), a function of a refreshed spot scenario following a +122% increase in Pd prices over the past eight months and PFS input updates.

NST has revised FY26 guidance lower after another soft sales quarter, cutting the midpoint ~8% to 1,650koz (from 1,775koz). The downgrade reflects ongoing operational challenges across all hubs, including grade, throughput and utilisation constraints. This marks the second guidance miss in as many years. While we remain constructive on NST’s long-term growth pathway, we are adopting a more cautious (previously bullish) short-to-midterm production outlook, maintained until delivery consistency improves. We now forecast FY26 sales of 1,589koz (-9%), marginally below updated guidance (1,600–1,700koz). We lift our AISC to A$2,770/oz, reducing forecast EBITDA and EPS by 16% and 22% respectively. Rating revised to HOLD, price target A$26.00ps (previously A$27.41ps). The downgrade partly offset by our higher spot scenario of US$3,500/oz (from US$3,250/oz).

EMV has raised capital to advance to major milestones including clinical trial completion (emuTM) and regulatory submission (emuTM). Funds will also support the clinical program for the First Responder device. EMV has been successful in securing additional grant funding to understand the clinical benefits in real-world applications. EMV is an emerging healthcare play with meaningful catalysts over the next six to 12 months.

Infratil (IFT) is a high quality, concentrated structural growth investor targeting 11-15% pa post fee returns. IFT’s investors have enjoyed c.18% pa returns over the last ~30 years. Assuming delivery of target returns, post fees the Net Asset Value (NAV) should nearly double over the next five years and create substantial value for equity holders. The share price is currently trading at a 30% discount to NAV. Assuming a return to a more normalised 20% discount would lift the share price by ~10% and from there NAV needs to lift for the share price to lift. Both seem likely, in our view. We initiate coverage with an ACCUMULATE rating and $11.30 target price. This report is the first part of a series that reviews IFT’s assets in more detail.

PPE has now divested two businesses as it, refocuses on its core competencies, being Queensland infrastructure, food and agriculture, defence and professional services. Whilst the divestments have been opportunistic and at healthy earnings multiples, the impact has been dilutionary to EPS. Offsetting the lower EPS, the residual business should prove higher quality (and higher growth), as the business looks beyond what is approaching cyclically low earnings. To this end, we continue to see earnings growth driving share price appreciation through FY27/28, with any turnaround unlikely to be visible until 4QFY26. Hence, we reiterate our Speculative Buy rating with a $1.10/sh price target.

ATA have announced a contract dispute which will negatively impact its FY26 and its 1H26 result. Management commented that “Atturra does not have a history of disputes or termination of material contracts and views this as a one-off occurrence. ATA’s balance sheet remains strong, and the Company sees no ongoing impact from this purported termination.” We agree and see this as a largely one-off event. We reduce our forecasts in line with guidance which lowers our TP to 80cps (was 95cps).

GNC has announced the sale of its underperforming and loss making GrainsConnect Canada. It has also provided a weaker than expected trading update. Grain receivals have been lower than expected and the grain trading margin environment has deteriorated. We have reduced our below consensus FY26 EBITDA forecast by 7%. With payments to the insurer no longer required in big crop years, GNC’s strong fixed cost leverage should return when crop production issues around the world ultimately eventuate. While GNC is lacking near-term share price catalysts, we think the stock has been oversold and maintain an ACCUMULATE recommendation with a new price target of A$8.05.

As we feared, but even weaker than expected, TWE’s trading update meant that consensus estimates were far too high. Its US performance was particularly disappointing given of all the capital spent in recent years. Gearing is now well above TWE’s target range and will remain high for the next couple of years. While we made large downgrades to our forecasts only two weeks ago following the goodwill write-down, TWE’s new trading update has seen us make another round of material revisions. We stress that earnings uncertainty remains high. It will take time for new management to deliver more acceptable returns and for TWE to rebuild credibility with the market. We maintain a HOLD rating.