Research notes

Surprisingly, FLT has maintained its FY26 earnings guidance. It noted that the conflict is creating near-term uncertainty and temporarily disrupting international travel patterns. It is having a more significant impact on Leisure (April profit was down ~A$10m on the pcp). While the reiteration of guidance was better than feared, our concern is that following its key trading period (May-June), FLT will likely need to revise guidance as we expect leisure demand will remain weak. If it wasn't for this conflict, FLT would have had a great year given its results for the first nine months were strong. We have made material revisions to our forecasts and now sit well below guidance. We assume that the conflict and a subdued consumer environment continue to impact the 1H27. We are buyers of FLT post the earnings downgrade given the company is worth materially more than the current share price. We know from past economic and geopolitical events, that after a downturn, travel demand rebounds.

RMS recorded gold production of 38.1koz at an AISC of A$2,211/oz, down on 2Q26 primarily due to a planned 6-day mill shutdown and weather impacts from Cyclone Narelle. Strong operating cash flow of A$171.3m with underlying FCF of A$101.9m after A$51.2m growth capex and A$26.4m exploration investment. Cash & bullion decreased to A$606.5m (Dec-25: A$694.3m), following A$110.2m in share buybacks (44% of the A$250m buyback allocation). We forecast FY26 production within guided midrange of 192.1koz; AISC guidance revised to A$1,900-2,050/oz driven by Dalgaranga commercial production reclassification (~A$100/oz), diesel (~A$35/oz) and royalties (~A$40/oz). We maintain our BUY rating, with a price target of $6.10ps (previously A$6.21).

AX1 has provided a soft trading update for 2H26, revising guidance lower and disclosed an ASIC insider trading investigation. The trading update for AX1 has materially softened since the update in February, with the escalations in the Middle East resulting in higher fuel prices and lower consumer confidence which in turn has impacted sales and margins. 2H26 EBIT guidance has been lowered to $23-28m (from $30-35m). We have lowered our EBIT by 9%/6% respectively in FY26/27. Our valuation lowers to $1.00, which we apply a 25% discount to derive a target price of $0.75. This reflects the weakening consumer backdrop, as well as overhang from ASIC investigation. We maintain our BUY recommendation.

UNI provided a strong trading update for YTD performance, with group sales for the first 43 weeks of FY26 up 14.0%. FY26 guidance was provided for sales of $368m to $375m representing +11.5% growth on the pcp at the midpoint and EBITA is expected to be $61.5m to $64.5m, representing +15.4% growth on the pcp at the midpoint. We have made minor changes to earnings (~1%) in FY26/27. Our valuation lowers to $9.50 (from $9.60) driven by earnings changes. We retain our BUY recommendation.

SIG has provided a solid trading update to 30 April (domestic) and to 31 March (international), noting continuing GLP-1s tailwinds. SIG continues its international expansion with entry into the UK market and expanding distribution capacity in New Zealand. We have made minor upgrades to forecasts however a higher risk-free rate sees our valuation reduce modestly to A$3.30 (was $3.36). Recent share price strength sees us move to an ACCUMULATE (from BUY) recommendation.

PXA has delivered a strong 3Q26 performance update, with Australian Exchange volumes up 7.3% on the pcp and Group Core NPAT now anticipated at the top end of the FY26 guidance range. We marginally lower our PXA FY26F/FY27 EPS by ~3% on a broad review of our earnings assumptions. Our PT is altered to A$14.23 (from A$14.31). We maintain our ACCUMULATE recommendation with >10% upside to our PT.

1H26 earnings were a mixed bag and a touch below expectations. FY26-28F EPS adjusted +/-2%. DPS held flat across FY26-27F. Target price lifted 4% to $36.10/sh. Rating lifted from SELL to TRIM, given total potential return of -4% at current prices.

Copper production remains resilient while by-products and costs reflect the absence of zinc-rich ore from Xantho Extended. The balance sheet is currently stable but disciplined execution through CY26 remains critical as the business manages elevated funding requirements while operating without its highest-grade ore source. Maintain HOLD with a A$0.26ps Target Price.

EDV’s trading update overall was slightly below expectations. While EDV’s Retail division continues to outperform Coles Group’s (COL) Liquor segment and win market share, the market remains subdued outside of key events such as Easter. After a strong start to 2H26, Hotels momentum softened in March amid growing cost of living pressures. Management has flagged higher costs in relation to inventory, fuel and freight, with a $100m cost out program targeted for delivery in FY27 expected to improve efficiency and mitigate inflationary pressures. We decrease FY26-28F underlying EBIT by 3-4%. Our target price declines to $3.30 (from $3.65) and we maintain our HOLD rating.

IPD announced a A$15.2m capital raise together with cost saving initiatives as it plans to reach breakeven by FY28. The new capital will also partly repay debt that has been overhanging the company. Our focus has been the rate of growth of SOZO in the US. IPD delivered 30 units in 3Q26, which was below our forecast of 40 units, however the cadence of new orders appears to be improving. We have adjusted our forecasts down taking a more cautious stance on SOZO installed base growth. Also, we have adjusted our model for the capital raising. As a result, our DCF based valuation has decreased to A$0.02 (was $0.05). We have maintained our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation for investors with a higher risk tolerance.