Research notes

If it was just about Australia, GYG would be doing just fine right now. In its home market, it continues to outperform the broader QSR industry both in terms of comp sales and network expansion. Australian earnings were up strongly in 1H26, much as we had expected. But it’s not just about Australia. GYG came to market with a strategy for global expansion that was breathtakingly ambitious. The first big opportunity was the US. Unfortunately, the pace of network expansion in the US so far has been pedestrian and the restaurants it has opened have lost more money than expected. It was a further step-up in US losses that disappointed investors most today and caused group EBITDA to fall 7% short of our forecast. We do believe global growth will click into gear at some point to complement a very healthy Australian business. We maintain a BUY rating, though our revised 12-month target sees the share price recovering to $24.00 rather than the $32.30 we had before. GYG has a bit to prove, but we can be certain it is going to give it all it’s got to ultimately realise its growth ambitions.

BXB’s 1H26 earnings were better than expected, driven by supply chain and productivity improvements. This maintained management’s strong track record of margin expansion over the past few years despite a subdued consumer demand environment, particularly in the US and Europe. Management has adjusted FY26 revenue growth guidance to between 3-4% (vs 3-5% previously) with underlying EBIT growth guidance maintained at between 8-11%. Free cash flow (before dividends) is now expected to be between US$950-1,100m (vs US$850-950m previously) due mainly to lower pallet purchases. We adjust FY26/27/28F underlying EBIT by +2%/+1%/+0%. Our target price rises to $27.00 (from $25.70) and we move our rating to ACCUMULATE (from HOLD). Following another solid result, we believe BXB is well positioned to deliver earnings growth through continued conversion of white-wood pallets to pooling and further margin improvement driven by ongoing operational efficiencies, including enhanced use of its digital and data capabilities.

MP1’s 1H26 result was a beat relative to our and consensus EBITDA expectations. Revenue was inline, with gross profit higher and OPEX lower than expected. FY26 guidance is broadly inline with our expectations. However, the 1H/2H skew and composition are meaningfully different. This necessitates a huge increase in OPEX from 1H26 into 2H26 which leaves us thinking guidance looks conservative. Cycling 2H26 OPEX into FY27 and beyond causes us to reduce our FY27 and FY28 EBITDA forecasts by ~20%, while concurrently lifting our revenue forecasts by ~6%. Our valuation declines to $15.50 and we retain our Buy recommendation.

PWH’s 1H26 result was above expectations, driven by strong growth in Motorsports (new Formula 1 regulations) and Aerospace & Defence (delivery of most of a US government contract). 1H26 NPAT margin improved 60bp to 7.1% due to operating leverage despite one-off factory costs related to generator power and relocation expenses as well as the transition to a new CEO. Management continues to expect modest NPAT margin improvement in FY26, with margins anticipated to trend back toward FY24 levels (17.8%) over the next 3-5 years. We adjust FY26/27/28F NPAT by +1%/-3%/-2%. Our target price increases to $11.15 (from $8.50) due to a roll-forward of our model to FY27 forecasts. We continue to view PWH as a high-quality business, supported by a strong balance sheet, an experienced management team, and access to large addressable markets that offer significant growth potential. With the disruption from relocating to the new Australian manufacturing facility now behind it, we believe PWH is well positioned to embark on its next phase of growth. ACCUMULATE rating maintained.

4Q25 earnings result was a material beat. Key positives: earnings well ahead of expectations and 2026 guidance in-line with expectations. Key negatives: no increase in per share dividend, elevated spend over next few years, limited clarity on when NEM intends to reach its 6Mozpa target. Move to an ACCUMULATE rating with a A$187ps Target Price.

BLX 1H26 result was weaker than expected, driven by softer sales in both retail and trade, which has tempered expectations of a meaningful recovery in the 2H. We have lowered our sales forecasts in FY26/27 resulting in 5%/6% downgrades to our EBITDA forecasts, and more meaningful downgrades at the NPAT line. Whilst earnings recovery is likely longer dated, we see long-term opportunity in trade, store network growth, and margin expansion as the cycle turns. We have a $3.20 price target (was $3.80) and upgrade to BUY (from ACCUMULATE).

1H26 was in line at revenue (+21% YoY), however lower margins saw a miss at both EBITDA and EBITA (each -9% vs MorgansF). Organic EBITDA growth was down 9% YoY due to a challenged environment in New Zealand offset in part by Australia which saw robust growth. The NZ performance may raise some eyebrows in relation to the defensiveness of this business. Positively, the environment in New Zealand has begun to normalise and the addition of Tyco NZ and Red Wolf should help to deepen this business and reduce volatility in the future. Guidance for underlying EBITDA (ex Tyco NZ) of $43-47m has been reiterated but the reported result will depend on the timing of settlement of Tyco. We have pushed completion out from end of February to end of May which, accompanied with a softer 1H, sees a reduction to our FY26 forecasts. We cut EBITDA by 10% and NPATA by 14%. Our forecasts for FY27-28 are unchanged.

PNV posted its 1H26 results where revenue was in line with our forecasts, although the cost base was higher than anticipated. While we expect a stronger 2H we have moderated our FY26 forecasts reflecting the higher costs. We have taken a more conservative stance in FY27 and FY28 on the cost side, but we remain comfortable with our revenue forecasts averaging ~20% growth. As a result of our forecast changes the valuation has reduced to A$1.83 (was $2.03). We maintain our BUY recommendation.

RHC has proposed an in-specie distribution of its 52.79% stake in Ramsay Santé via a scheme of arrangement. Subject to approvals, RHC shareholders would receive Ramsay Santé exposure through ASX-listed CDIs, with implementation targeting 4QCY26. We view the proposed separation as strategically sound and incrementally positive for sentiment, addressing a long-standing structural discount related to EU exposure and capital complexity. However, the proposed transaction has no immediate earnings impact, with the pathway toward margin expansion and potential multiple re-rating remaining uncertain. We make no changes to FY26-28 forecasts or our A$35.22 price target. Hold.

VNT reported an in-line FY25 with NPATA +13% YoY as revenue growth faded to just +1%. We find it noteworthy that VNT, a headcount business, was able to deliver earnings growth almost entirely through margin expansion. Indeed, FY25 was the first period when revenue costs growth and operating costs growth decoupled materially. While the company sounded a confident tone around continued margin expansion, this may be difficult to replicate following a heavy re-contracting cycle, which would ordinarily see margin pressure. The bright spot was a record order book of $22.1bn (+14% YoY). The extra ~$100m of buyback capacity should provide a helpful share price support mechanism but weak cash flow (capex 2.5% sales) and anemic forecast revenue growth leaves us on the sidelines. Target price rises to $5.85.