Scott Fraser | Investment Manager

Why choose me?

With over 20 years of experience as an Investment Adviser and strategic leader, I have built lasting partnerships with clients across all levels of wealth. My role is to simplify complexity, guiding individuals, families, and institutions through investment landscapes that require deeper conversations, more thoughtful strategies, and long-term vision.

I specialise in working with high-net-worth families and family offices, providing stewardship through the challenges of intergenerational wealth transfer and preservation. By collaborating closely with principals, CFOs, lawyers, and accountants, I ensure that every decision reflects not only financial goals but also family values and legacy.

My Role

As an Investment Manager, I bring a worldly perspective to craft sophisticated investment strategies for high-net-worth and generational families, refining investment theses to incorporate speciality needs such as socially responsible and fossil fuel-free approaches while enhancing global equity and fixed-income portfolios. I excel in holistic portfolio construction, aligning with clients’ long-term goals and values, guided by a robust investment policy and risk management lens. My expertise ensures agile decision-making, leveraging economic forecasts, asset allocation, manager selection, and performance monitoring, with tools like Morgans reporting platform providing real-time portfolio visibility and analytics. I prioritize transparency, risk mitigation, and access to unique direct and global opportunities to foster wealth preservation and growth across generations.

My services include comprehensive investment advisory, portfolio management across equities, bonds, real estate, private equity, and alternative investments, as well as consolidated reporting, investment screening, custodial oversight, and sustainable investing tailored to clients’ values, ensuring their legacies thrive in a complex global environment.
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Investment Style

My investment philosophy is built on integrity, discretion, and true alignment with my clients’ interests. I focus on designing bespoke, multi-asset portfolios that reflect the unique needs of each family or institution. These portfolios span global equities, alternatives, credit, real assets, and impact investments, and are always underpinned by disciplined macroeconomic views and deep manager due diligence.

I approach wealth management as more than just investing, it is about stewardship. Every recommendation is informed by careful analysis, global perspective, and a commitment to building resilience across market cycles. This disciplined approach ensures that clients not only grow their wealth but also preserve it for future generations.

Investment advice tailored for you

I work with families and family offices to create clarity around the complexities of passing wealth from one generation to the next. My role is to provide structure, guidance, and confidence in decision-making so that financial outcomes remain aligned with both family values and long-term aspirations.
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No two investors are the same, and portfolios should reflect that. I design customised strategies that draw from a broad universe of opportunities - spanning listed markets, private assets, and alternative investments - always with a focus on risk management, resilience, and sustainable growth.
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Strong financial outcomes are built on strong relationships. I see my role as a partner in the decision-making process, offering practical insights and a global perspective while working closely with families and their advisers to deliver solutions that are thoughtful, discreet, and aligned.

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What my clients say about me

I have to say that our experiences since coming to know you personally have been excellent and particularly being able to feel comfortable in the trust we share.
Mr H. Wilson
Morgans Client

Let’s Start a Conversation

Whether you are looking to structure a multi-asset portfolio, prepare for intergenerational wealth transfer, or simply want to explore new ways of growing and protecting your capital, I would be delighted to have a conversation.

Please reach out to discuss how I can help you achieve your investment goals with clarity, confidence, and purpose.
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News & insights

Michael Knox discusses how weakening US labour market conditions have prompted the Fed to begin easing, with expectations for further cuts to a neutral rate that could stimulate Indo-Pacific trade.


In our previous discussion on the Fed, we suggested that the deterioration in the US labour market would move the Fed toward an easing path. We have now seen the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting. As a result, the effective Fed funds rate has fallen from 4.35% to 4.10%.

Our model of the Fed funds rate suggests that the effective rate should move toward 3.35%. At this level, the model indicates that monetary policy would be neutral.

The Summary of Economic Projections from Federal Reserve members and Fed Presidents also suggests that the Fed funds rate will fall to a similar level of 3.4% in 2026.

We believe this will happen by the end of the first quarter of 2026. In fact, the Summary of Economic Projections expects an effective rate of 3.6% by the end of 2025.

The challenge remains the gradually weakening US labour market, with unemployment expected to rise from 4.3% now to 4.5% by the end of 2025. This is then projected to fall very slowly to 4.4% by the end of 2026 and 4.3% by the end of 2027.

These expectations would suggest one of the least eventful economic cycles in recent history. We should be so lucky!

In the short term, it is likely that the Fed will cut the effective funds rate to 3.4% by March 2026.

This move to a neutral stance will have a significant effect on the world trade cycle and on commodities. The US dollar remains the principal currency for financing trade in the Indo-Pacific. Lower US short-term rates will likely generate a recovery in the trade of manufacturing exports in the Indo-Pacific region, which in turn will increase demand for commodities.

The Fed’s move to a neutral monetary policy will generate benefits well beyond the US.

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Michael Knox discusses the RBA’s decision to hold rates in September and outlines the conditions under which a November rate cut could occur, based on trimmed mean inflation data.

Just as an introduction to what I'm going to talk about in terms of Australian interest rates today, we'll talk a little bit about the trimmed mean, which is what the RBA targets. The trimmed mean was invented by the Dallas Fed and the Cleveland Fed. What it does is knock out the 8% of crazy high numbers and the 8% of crazy low numbers.

That's the trimming at both ends. So the number you get as a result of the trimmed mean is pretty much the right way of doing it. It gets you to where the prices of most things are and where inflation is. That’s important to understand what's been happening in inflation.

With that, we've seen data published for the month of July and published in the month of August, which we'll talk about in a moment. Back in our remarks on the 14th of August, we said that the RBA would not cut in September. That was at a time when the market thought there would be a September return. But we thought they would wait until November. So with the RBA leaving the cash rate unchanged on the 30th of September, is it still possible for a cut in November?

The RBA released its statement on 30th September, and that noted that recent data, while partial and volatile, suggests that inflation in the September quarter may be higher than expected at the time of the August Statement on Monetary Policy. So what are they talking about? What are they thinking about when they say that? Well, it could be that they’re thinking about the very sharp increases in electricity prices in the July and August monthly CPIs.

In the August monthly CPI, even with electricity prices rising by a stunning 24.6% for the year to August faster than the 13.6% for the year to July; the trimmed mean still fell from 2.7% in the year to July to 2.6% in the year to August. Now, a similar decline in September would take that annual inflation down to 2.4%.

The September quarter CPI will be released on the 29th of October. Should it show a trimmed mean of 2.5% or lower, then we think that the RBA should provide a rate cut in November. This would provide cheer for homeowners as we move towards the festive season. Still, it all depends on what we learn from the quarterly CPI on the 29th of October.

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In recent days, several people have asked for my updated view on the Federal Reserve and the Fed funds rate, as well as the outlook for the Australian cash rate. I thought I’d walk through our model for the Fed funds rate and explain our approach to the RBA’s cash rate.

In recent days, several people have asked for my updated view on the Federal Reserve and the Fed funds rate, as well as the outlook for the Australian cash rate. I thought I’d walk through our model for the Fed funds rate and explain our approach to the RBA’s cash rate.

It’s fascinating to look at the history of the current tightening cycle. The Fed began from a much higher base than the RBA, and in this cycle, they reached a peak rate of 535 basis points, compared to the RBA’s peak of 435 basis points. For context, in the previous tightening cycle, the RBA reached a peak of 485 basis points.

The reason the RBA was more cautious this time around is largely due to an agreement between Treasurer Jim Chalmers and the RBA. The goal was to implement rate increases that would not undo the employment gains made in the previous cycle. As a result, the RBA was far less aggressive in its approach to rate hikes.

This divergence in peak rates is important. Because the Australian cash rate peaked lower, the total room for rate cuts and the resulting stimulus to the economy is significantly smaller than in previous cycles.

The Fed, on the other hand, peaked at 535 basis points in August last year and began cutting rates shortly after. By the end of December, they had reduced the rate to 435 basis points, where it has remained since.

Recent U.S. labour market data shows a clear slowdown. Over the past 20 years, average annual employment growth in the U.S. has been around 1.6 percent, but this fell to 1.0 percent a few months ago and dropped further to 0.9 percent in the most recent data.

This suggests that while the Fed has successfully engineered a soft landing by slowing the economy, it now risks tipping into a hard landing if rates remain unchanged.

Fed Funds Rate Model Update

Our model for the Fed funds rate is based on three key variables: inflation, unemployment, and inflation expectations. While inflation has remained relatively stable, inflation expectations have declined significantly, alongside the drop in employment growth.

As a result, our updated model now estimates the Fed funds rate should be around 338 basis points, which is 92 basis points lower than the current rate of 435. This strongly suggests we are likely to see a 25 basis point cut at the Fed’s September 17 meeting.

There are two more Fed meetings scheduled for the remainder of the year, one in October and another on December 10. However, we will need to review the minutes from the September meeting before forming a view on whether further cuts are likely.

Australian Cash Rate Outlook

Turning to the Australian cash rate, as mentioned, the peak this cycle was lower than in the past, meaning the stimulatory effect of rate cuts is more limited.

We have already seen three rate cuts, and the key question now is whether there will be another at the RBA’s 4 November meeting.

This decision hinges entirely on the September quarter inflation data, which will be released on 29 October 2025.

The RBA’s strategy is guided by the concept of the real interest rate. Over the past 20 years, the average real rate has been around 0.85 percent. Assuming the RBA reaches its 2.5 percent inflation target, this implies a terminal cash rate of around 335 basis points. Once that level is reached, we expect it will mark the final rate cut of this cycle, unless inflation falls significantly further.

So, will we see a rate cut in November?

It all depends on the trimmed mean inflation figure for the September quarter. If it comes in at 2.5 percent or lower, we expect a rate cut. The June quarter trimmed mean was 2.7 percent, and the monthly July figure was 2.8 percent. If the September figure remains the same or rises, there will be no cut. Only a drop to 2.5 percent or below will trigger another move.

We will have a much clearer picture just a few days before Melbourne Cup Day.

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The Morgans difference

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Backed by a team of over 20 analysts, we leverage award-winning research and industry insights to provide our clients with strategic advice. We cover over 200 ASX-listed stocks, providing broad market expertise.

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We craft strategies tailored to your individual goals. This includes wealth accumulation and retirement planning.

Global investor reach

Our ability to engage both domestic and international high-net-worth retail and institutional investors is a key differentiator and allows us to deliver a diverse investor mix to meet specific investment goals.