Insights

For the last couple of months, I've been putting the view that I think the beginning of a new up move in commodity prices. There are two ways you can approach that.

One is the simple argument that we're at the beginning of an extended period of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. That period of rate cuts has already started. We will have a further 25 basis point rate cut in November and another 25-basis point rate cut in December. Those rate cuts will continue as we go through next year. As a result of that, the U.S. dollar will fall. You'll see the DXY index of U.S. dollars continue to decline.  Then after the lag, what you will see is that fall in the $US will really start to bite, and commodity prices will go up. That's the simple argument in terms of the world trade cycle.

But this morning what I want to look at, is the structure of demand and where I think the structure of demand will be coming from. For that, what I want to do is look at not just the Chinese steel industry. It is not the domestic economy that I'm interested in. What I'm interested in is the very rapid growth of Chinese steel exports and where those exports are going to.

For the discussion on Chinese domestic demand, which is like I say, I rely on paper that's published by BHP. But for the discussion on Chinese steel exports, I'm relying on the US International Trade Administration and their statistics that they've got on Chinese exports.

In 2023, China produced, over a billion tons of steel. I mean, you know, imagine how much that would hurt if you dropped it on your foot. Domestic demand was 911 million tons, and that's up 50% from the 609 million tonnes 13 years ago.

Now, what's interesting about that, and I'm referring to this BHP paper, is that the structure of domestic demand has changed. We think of all that steel going into buildings. Back in 2010, 42% of the steel was going into the buildings. That has fallen, pretty much reversing those numbers from 42% falling to 24%. So, building demand is a much smaller proportion of steel demand in China. What has changed dramatically is there's a lot more building of machines and machinery in China, and that has generated a change of demand from 20% of total production, 13 years ago to 30% now. Steel demand for infrastructure has changed from 13 % then to 17% now.

It is true that the Chinese economy is slowing down this year. The Chinese government said that we're going to grow at 5%. But the International Monetary Fund in April said that that wasn't going to happen, that we're going to grow by 4.6%. The International Monetary Fund was the closest to it. Then that number that the International Monetary Fund is forecasting drops a year by year through to the end of the decade to about 3%.

But what's interesting, as that's happening, there's still a growth in demand for Chinese steel. That's because there's been a quite remarkable increase in exports of steel. Where I want to look at now. I want, to look at is the top ten markets for Chinese steel exports. Now, these are not countries you would think of. You would think of, you know, big demand with going to places like The United States or maybe, Germany or, you know, France or someplace like that.

That's not where the growth in the world economy is. The growth the world economy is, is in a place north of us called the Indo-Pacific. The Indo-Pacific name came from Shinzo Abe, who was the longest serving prime minister, Japanese prime minister since World War two. Sadly, he is no longer with us.

So, the fastest growth, in last year's was a country called Vietnam. Vietnam absorbed 9.2 million tonnes of Chinese steel, which is 10% of total exports. South Korea absorbed 8.4 million tonnes, which was 9% of exports. Thailand absorbed 4.9 million tonnes, which was 5.3% of exports. And the Philippines 4.8 million tonnes. That's not the United States. It's not Germany, it's not France. It's countries north of us which are using all that steel because the growth rate is so good, is so strong. The Philippines absorbed 4.9 million tonnes. Indonesia absorbed 4.2 million tonnes. Turkey, not north of us, but to the west absorbed 4 million tons, the UAE 3.7 million tonnes. And India, even though it has its own steel manufacturing industry, which is growing incredibly rapidly, absorbed 3 million tonnes.

What I want to do now is go out in some of those countries where we saw that rapid demand and look at GDP growth. I want to look at four of them and what the GDP growth is and what the size of those economies are.

Vietnam, which had the strongest growth. The point about Vietnam is that Vietnam is where a lot of what's happened. In China is wages have gone up so much that they've been priced themselves out of the manufacturing business. A lot of that manufacturing is now going to Vietnam. So, it's now moving to Vietnam. So, what you're having is the roll out of factory building in Vietnam as manufacturing moves there from China now.

What's interesting is that if Vietnam has 100 million people, the size of its economy is $US 0.5 trillion, and that economy grew by 6.9% this year. That's the kind of growth rate that China used to have. The IMF thinks it's going to grow by 6.9% next year as well.  Another country is the Philippines. The Philippines has 117 million people in it. It also has an economy of just over $US 0.5 trillion dollars. It's growing at 5.7% this year. The IMF thinks it's going to grow by 5.9% next year.

Indonesia is an enormous country. 280 million people, almost as many, as many people as the United States. It's income of $US1.5 trillion U.S. dollars and it grew at 5% this year, a touch faster than China annual growth, 5.1% next year and keep growing at that because its populations continue to grow, unlike China.

India, of course, the which is the big guy in the Indo-Pacific, it grew by 6.9% this year. It'll grow by 6.7% next year, according to the IMF. It of course, has a population of 1.4 trillion people bigger than China. And its economy this year was $US3.9 trillion. I compare that to a little country in the South Pacific, a small open economy, as economists say, which has only 27 million people in it. You're right. Australia. And we have an economy of $US1.8 trillion.

What you've got here are two stories for recovery in commodities. First, you have a financial story, which is obvious. The Fed is going to cut rates. The U.S. dollar will fall, after a lag commodity prices will go up. But what's really important is that this commodity market has strong structural demand, and that strong structural demand is coming not from strong growth in China anymore, but from very strong growth in the Indo-Pacific, particularly strong growth in Vietnam, particularly strong growth in the Philippines, strong growth in Indonesia. And of course, the big guy in the block, strong growth in India.

In this sector wrap, we highlight our key takeaways from the recent Insurance and Diversified Financials reporting season. Overall, it proved to be a strong reporting season across the board, with most company results meeting or beating expectations. While there were some disappointments—most notably NHF’s challenging results and slightly softer guidance from QBE and PXA—our focus remains on several standout picks: QBE, SUN, and CGF.

QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

QBE’s 1H24 result was broadly in-line at both Gross Written Premium (GWP) and NPAT, with the company delivering a solid 16.9% ROE (10.1% in the pcp). Overall we saw this result as largely as expected, with the negative being slightly lowered FY24 top-line guidance, and the positive being an improved overall North America business performance. We lower our QBE FY24F/FY25 EPS by 9%/5% reflecting; restructuring charges, reduced top-line growth expectations, higher tax rate forecasts and a change in QBE’s definition of adjusted NPAT. We continue see QBE as too cheap, trading on 10x FY24F PE.

Outlook commentary:

FY24 guidance is now for constant currency GWP growth of 3% (previously mid-single-digit), and a combined operating ratio of 93.5% (which is unchanged).

Suncorp Group (SUN)

SUN’s FY24 cash NPAT (A$1,372m) was ~-5% below consensus (A$1,425m), mainly due to a softer General Insurance result than expected. FY25 guidance points to solid earnings momentum continuing into this year, and we see SUN’s unveiled FY25-FY27 business strategy as uncomplicated and focused on driving the insurance business harder (which should be well received). We lift our SUN FY25F/FY26F EPS by 5-6% on an increase in insurance margin forecasts and lower “other items” forecasts.

Outlook commentary:

• GWP growth expected to be in the mid to high single digits, primarily driven by increases in AWP albeit with moderating premium rates as the reinsurance market stabilises and inflationary pressures ease slightly in some portfolios.
• Investment yields are expected to reduce as market expectations for interest rates decline in anticipation of a stabilisation in inflation. For FY25, prior year reserve releases in CTP are expected to be around 0.4% of Group net insurance revenue, with releases in other portfolios expected to be neutral over the year. An UITR towards the top of the 10% to 12% range is target.

Challenger Financial Svcs (CGF)

CGF’s FY24 normalised NPAT (A$417m) was in-line with consensus and +14% on the pcp. Overall, we saw this as a positive FY24 result highlighted by a strong improvement in Life business margins/returns, good group cost control and an upward step change in CGF’s capital position. We lift our CGF FY25F/FY26F EPS by 4%-6% on higher Life business margin expectations, and a reduction in our cost-to-income ratio forecasts. With CGF having good earnings momentum, and trading on an undemanding 12x FY25F PE multiple, we see further upside.

Outlook commentary:

• In FY25, Challenger is targeting a normalised net profit after tax guidance between $440 million and $480 million, with the mid-point of the range representing a 10% increase on FY24.
• Based on Challenger’s assumed FY25 effective tax rate of 31.3% this equates to a normalised NPBT guidance range of between $640 million and $700 million.
• Challenger has also lowered its cost to income ratio target range to 32% to 34% from FY25 (previously 35%-37%). Challenger is on track to achieve its ROE target in FY25, which represents the mid-point for the FY25 earnings guidance range.

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Two weeks ago I said that I thought that a slowdown in employment growth in the US gave the Federal Reserve room to cut rates. And what we've seen last week is a Fed meeting and the Fed has cut rates.

But what I also learned from last week's meeting by the Fed is something that echoed what Andrew Hauser was telling us when he was here doing a presentation for us. That was that there really is no general theory of the action of central banks. What central banks actually do is they look at the data as it is presented to them at each meeting and then make the decisions.

And I said that we'd see what the impact of that data was from looking at the Summary of Economic Projections, which was released after the Fed meeting. The Summary of Economic Projections shows the combination of the views of all of the people who are on the Federal Reserve Board sitting on Constitution Ave in DC, plus all the independent Presidents of the Federal Reserve, whether or not they were also part of the committee at the time.

What we see is that the actions of the Fed last week were very much how the data had changed since the middle of the year. We can see how the data changes and how it affects their views by looking at the difference between the outlook that was in the June Summary of Economic Projections compared to those for September.

In the September economic projections last week, the first thing was that the expectation of GDP growth for the year fell from 2.1% to 2%.  More importantly than that, the outlook for unemployment at the end of the year rose from 4% to 4.4%.  I have explained before how when unemployment goes up in our model for the Fed funds rate or for the Australian cash rate, that puts downward pressure on where you think rates should be in the future.

What also happened was that the expectation for inflation in this year fell. So the PCE deflator, which runs about 50 basis points lower than the CPI, instead of an expectation of 2.3% for the year, their expectation fell to 2.1%. That's equal to a CPI of about 2.6% for the full year.

Interestingly, the RBA doesn't expect to get into that range until 2026. At least that's what Michelle Bullock was talking about on Tuesday. For core PCE, the Fed expectation fell from 2.8% to 2.6%, which is similar to 3.1% on the CPI. As a result of that, because of the increase in unemployment which they expected at the end of the year and the fall in inflation that they expected at the end of the year, their expectation of where the Fed funds rate would be at the end of the year changed dramatically as a result of the meeting.

Prior to this meeting, they expected in the June summary of economic projections that the Fed funds rate at the end of the year was 5.1%, which means by the end of the year you're going to get a rate cut of 25 basis points. Now in what they released last week because of that increase in unemployment and fall in expected inflation, they thought that the Fed funds rate at the end of the year would end at 4.4%. That's a 100 basis point rate cut including what they've just done.

Now we had 50 basis points last week. So what we would expect would be another 25 basis points at the November meeting and another 25 basis points at the December meeting to take the total rate cut to 100 basis points.

So in answer to the question, what is the Fed going to do now?

The Fed is going to give us two more rate cuts, one next month and one the year after. And those rate cuts will continue next year. But exactly how big and when? We don't know, but it's important to understand that those cuts in the Fed funds rate are only possible because at the same time, the Fed is continuing Quantitative Tightening. This means they're selling off the bond holdings that they acquired.

They acquired up to $9 billion worth of bonds and other assets to reflight the US economy during the pandemic. And they've been running those assets down at around a trillion dollars a year. Now those assets have fallen to about $7 trillion. We expect they'll continue to run off those assets at least down to $4 trillion. They could go even lower.

That means it's a trillion dollars a year of Quantitative Tightening that offsets the cuts in rates. It generates a basis for the reduced reduction in the money base, which lets the Federal Reserve cut rates.

So it's that combination of things. But it's important if you want to compare the situation that the Federal Reserve is now in to where the RBA is now in, we go back and look at those. That's where the trimmed mean is, and where they expect inflation to be. The trimmed mean in the most recent level of the trimmed mean in the US is for a trimmed mean of 3.2%.

That gives us a model for our equilibrium level including the other components including unemployment, including inflation and inflationary expectations.

This gives us a model estimate for the Federal Funds rate right now of 3.1%.

So there's plenty of room further for the Fed funds rate to fall over the next year.

The problem is with when we do the RBA model, inflation is higher.

Australian core inflation is 60 basis points higher now than it is in the US. That means that the equilibrium level of our cash rate model in Australia is 3.9%. That is only slightly below the 4.35% where the cash rate currently is.

Falling inflation in the US gives it a low equilibrium level for the Fed funds rate model and allows the Fed to cut.

But inflation isn't falling in Australia. That means that our cash rate model estimate is significantly higher.

So therefore it's far more difficult for the RBA to cut than it is for the Fed to cut.

Again, quite dramatic changes in US unemployment expectations.

Unemployment expectations rose from 4% to 4.4%.

But the end of the year the PCE deflator fell with core PCE now expected to be 2.6%, equivalent to 3.1% in the CPI.

And the expected Fed Funds rate at the end of the year fell from 5.1% to 4.4%.

All of this means that the cuts that we've got from the Fed will be followed up by further cuts this year and next year.

Unfortunately inflation in Australia is still too high for the RBA to follow.

Through August, we saw investors generally become more positive on the outlook for the consumer, with a recovery in sales towards the backend of FY24 and continuing a positive trajectory into the first couple of months of FY25. Share prices were volatile though, with notable stand out performers and laggards. Sales were in line with forecasts and up yoy, but earnings were down driven by inflationary cost pressures, although better managed than expectations. Dividends in FY24 were much better than expected which may indicate that companies are confident in the stability of earnings and cash flow despite no meaningful sign of a recovery in earnings yet. Generally, companies reported a positive start to the year, albeit comping a weak corresponding period. However, they did undershoot our expectations, resulting in lowering our EPS forecasts by (2.4)% (median).

Even in a challenging environment, we think the strongest retailers/ franchises can outperform on a relative basis as they take market share, maintain cost discipline, and apply effective pricing structures, providing improved operating leverage for when cyclical conditions inevitably improve. Our key picks are BLX, SUL and UNI.

Beacon Lighting (BLX)

Beacon Lighting continues to drive strong growth in Trade sales, offsetting softness in Retail sales in a subdued consumer market to result in a stable LFL performance. Gross margins were surprisingly robust in FY24 and we expect this to be sustained in FY25. Beacon Lighting continues to take share and we think it is well positioned to achieve strong earnings growth when consumer sentiment turns.

Outlook commentary:

• "Trading momentum has continued into FY25" with Trade momentum "positive".
• Five new stores are planned for FY25.

Super Retail Group (SUL)

SUL reported sales +2.1% to A$3.9bn; EBIT -8.6% to ~A$400m; and NPAT -11.5%. An in-line result, lifted by a strong FY25 trading update (group LFL sales +3%); an improving rebel outlook; confidence in gross margin sustainability; and a larger than-expected special dividend (50cps vs 25cps MorgansF). A positive update from SUL, supporting its recent strong share price appreciation and pointing to continued momentum into FY25. We continue to maintain a positive disposition on the stock and view it as well positioned to capitalize on any improvements in underlying macro conditions.

Outlook commentary:

• Effective capital management, a better-than-expected start to FY25, resilient SCA, and improving rebel—are sufficient to offset slightly higher FY25 capex/opex expectations and support recent share price consolidation.
• We are encouraged by the start to FY25, supporting our view that SUL is well positioned to continue to manage an uncertain consumer outlook.

Universal Store (UNI)

UNI reported a strong FY24 result with underlying earnings up 16% on FY23, coming in ahead of pre-released guidance. The strong result could be attributed to sales growth of 9.7%, improved gross margins, up 110 bps to 60.1% and well managed costs. UNI declared a dividend of 18.5c bringing the total to 35.5c which was up 25.6% and ahead of our expectations. The strong momentum seen in 2H has continued into the first 7 weeks of FY25, with double digit like-for-like (LFL) growth across all brands.

Outlook commentary:

• For the first 7 weeks of FY25, US sales up 15.3%, against (9)% decline in the pcp, with LFL sales up 12.5% Perfect Stranger sales up 89.9%, against +4.9% in the pcp, with LFL sales up 24.2%. CTC sales in the direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel up 13.3%, compared to +4.1% in the pcp and LFL sales up 22.4%.
• UNI expects to open 4-6 new Universal Stores as well as 2 major refurb and 3 relocations in FY25, 4-6 Perfect Stranger stores and 1-3 new THRILLS stores.

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At a high level, the tech and telecom sectors are currently trading at premium valuations, while the gaming sector is priced more attractively. Notably, earnings increased by 5% for FY25, and share prices also rose by 5% over the past month. Although these trends are aligned, a deeper analysis reveals significant disparities between earnings growth and share price movements.

This article provides a deeper look at some of the key picks emerging from the reporting season. Gain valuable insights into market trends and investment prospects that could shape their strategies and decisions moving forward. Keep reading to uncover which stocks are poised for growth and why they might be worth your attention.

Tech

NEXT DC (NXT)

The stock increased by approximately 4% over the month and recently secured additional capital, positioning the company with strong funding to scale its business internationally. Future share price performance will likely hinge on securing significant new contracts. While major contract wins are anticipated, it's important to note that contracts secured in the past year or two typically take 2-3 years to fully ramp up, suggesting that EBITDA could double based on these existing agreements.

Outlook commentary:

• Given the size of NXT’s order book it appears there are more costs associated with scaling up in FY25 than anticipated by the market but the size of the opportunity remains substantial and the opportunity and outlook bright.
• NXT is well positioned to capitalise on significant and ongoing structural growth driving increased demand for data centres, which is fuelled by business digitisation (colocation), cloud computing, and Generative Artificial Intelligence (Gen AI).
• Existing facilities are contracted and gradually filling up over the next five years, with new ones coming online.
• NXT is expected to substantially expand its footprint and continue winning new business.

AI Media (AIM)

This was the top-performing tech stock, rising 81% for the month and 140% over the past 12 months. The company has shifted from facing major headwinds to enjoying substantial tailwinds by leveraging AI in its captioning business. Over the past three years, they disrupted their own business model and are now capturing significant market share. Management is optimistic about achieving their aspirational targets, including a goal to increase EBITDA from $4.5 million to $60 million over the next five years. If they meet this target, the stock could potentially increase fivefold from current levels, offering a 60% IRR. Though it remains on the higher-risk end of the spectrum, the risk/reward equation looks compelling.

Outlook commentary:

• Management accelerated AIM's adoption of technology, including AI and proprietary hardware/software.
• The business has largely completed the transition and has returned to revenue, profit, and free cash flow growth in the past twelve months.
• AIM is considered substantially undervalued, presenting value for investors in a small, profitable, and fast-growing technology company.
• Management remain committed to driving further growth and profitability and targeting >80% Tech by Dec 2025.

Media/Classifieds

Seek (SEK)

SEK’s FY24 results were below expectations and complicated by the effect of the recent sale of its Latam businesses. On an adjusted and continuing operations basis, total revenue and EBITDA were approximately 2-5% below Visible Alpha consensus, but it was the softer-than-expected guidance that pushed the share price down on the day of results. The base case for FY25 was for revenue only in line with FY24. Seek has maintained its FY28 aspirational target of $2 billion in revenue.

Outlook commentary:

• FY25 revenue guidance: Expected to match FY24, in the range A$1.02-1.14bn.
• FY25 EBITDA guidance: A$430 – A$500m, about 12% below consensus at the midpoint.
• FY25 adjusted NPAT guidance: A$130 – A$180m.
• ANZ: Anticipated softer volumes in absolute terms over FY25.
• Asia: Forecasted softer volumes in 1H25 with a partial recovery in 2H25.

Camplify Holdings (CHL)

Camplify’s FY24 result was broadly in line with expectations. Gross transaction volumes (GTV) increased by 13% to A$165m (less than we’d forecast) but a higher-than-expected group take-rate saw revenue broadly in line with our estimate. Whilst the PaulCamper integration impacted bookings/revenue in the period, this is largely completed, with Camplify expecting a return to a more normalised performance in FY25.

Outlook commentary:

• Camplify sees FY25 as a ‘key deliverable year’ along its 3-5-year roadmap. It anticipates growing core revenue and customers.
• Camplify will focus on reducing the ratio of operational costs to revenue to optimise its EBIT performance.

Airtasker (ART)

Airtasker’s results were in line with its quarterly update released in July. Its marketplace experienced a slight 3.5% decline in GMV yoy, totaling A$190.6 million, but there was a small improvement of 1.1% in the second half of FY24. Revenue grew by 6% to A$46.6 million, driven by better monetisation rates and a 6.6% increase in gross profit to A$44.5 million. Revenue from Airtasker Marketplaces rose 9.8% to A$38.1 million, thanks to a higher monetisation rate and reduced cancellations. Offshore markets are growing, with the UK showing strong results after a brand campaign, with GMV up 35% in Q4 and annual revenue up 41%. The US market, with a cautious marketing strategy, saw a 9.4% increase in GMV and a 74% rise in revenue. Airtasker also announced two more media partnerships (following Ch4 in the UK as well as oOh!Media and ARN Media domestically), these being in the US to assist its ramp of brand awareness and initial platform scaling.

Outlook commentary:

• Post achieving its aim of being FCF positive for FY24, Airtasker intends to operate on positive free cash flow basis on balance sheet.
• Airtasker intends to target consolidated double digit revenue growth from its various marketplaces and geographic regions.
• Airtasker has flagged an increase in its investment in marketing activities to drive the top line (via cash investment and media partnerships)

Telco

Superloop (SLC)

SLC's FY24 results exceeded expectations, with underlying EBITDA up 45% year-over-year to $54 million and strong free cash flow of $27 million, a 22% increase. Net debt dropped significantly by 65% to $8.7 million, and without lease liabilities, SLC has no net debt. It remains attractively valued with strong organic growth and an ungeared balance sheet, allowing for potential acquisitions up to $200 million.

Outlook commentary:

• Guidance for underlying EBITDA growth has been refined to $83-88 million, consistent with earlier expectations, and shows potential for further upside due to strong business momentum.
• FY25 capex is slightly higher than anticipated at $28-30 million, up from initial estimates, due to new contract wins. This increase, flagged as a possibility, is considered high-returning growth capex.
• As of June 30, 2024, Origin had 4.7 million customers (up 132k YoY) and 152k NBN subscribers (up from 130k at the deal announcement). They are adding about 4.5k net NBN subs per month and aim for ~600k by FY26. FY25 EBITDA guidance for Origin is around $14 million, but with current trends, it could be closer to $20 million, pending conditions and migration by October 2024.

Gaming

Light & Wonder (LNW)

LNW delivered an impressive 2Q24, with revenue reaching $818 million, up 12% from the previous year and 3% above forecasts. Adjusted EBITDA grew 17% to $330 million, surpassing consensus expectations by 7% and our estimates by 2% at a margin of 40.3%. This margin improvement was largely driven by strong performance in land-based gaming and a continued shift towards premiumisation. Notably, North America remains a key growth driver, making sixteen consecutive quarters of growth in Gaming Operations. The company generated $141 million in operating cash, a significant improvement on the prior comparative period. Net debt to EBITDA ratio remained stable at 3x, within the company’s target range of 2.5-3.5x.

Outlook commentary:

• Matt Wilson, CEO: “We saw strong progress in the Gaming business as the expansion of units in the North American installed base reached an inflection point. Our global presence enables further product refinement and market penetration with our suite of games and casino solutions. We continue to develop our catalogue of proven, evergreen franchises to bring the most engaging experiences to our players, leveraging the power of our portfolio across land-based, social and iGaming platforms”
• LNW reiterated its US$1.4bn Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA target by 2025.

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As interest rates normalise, earnings quality, market positioning and balance sheet strength will play an important role in distinguishing companies from their peers. We think stocks will continue to diverge in performance at the market and sector level, and investors need to take a more active approach than usual to manage portfolios. We add The Lottery Corporation, Reliance Worldwide and Polynovo following the August reporting season. Removals this month: Coles, Inghams and Avita Medical.

September best ideas

The Lottery Corporation (TLC) - ADD

Large cap | Gaming

TLC's FY24 result was impressive, driven by a favourable year for Lotteries and strong active customer growth. Despite lapping a record period of growth in Lotteries, we remain positive on the stock as current lottery volumes continue to perform well. The company mentioned that Saturday Lotto will be the next game to receive an update, which should benefit the base game divisions significantly and likely come with a price increase, offsetting some recent softness. Additionally, TLC reported a leverage ratio of 2.5x, below the guided range of 3-4x, and has expressed interest in renewing the VIC licence. Based on our estimates, TLC is set to deliver a 4.5% FCF yield and a 4% dividend yield in FY25. The stock trades in line with its historical valuation ranges and we view it as a solid option for investors seeking stability.

Reliance Worldwide (RWC) - ADD

Mid cap | Industrials

RWC is highly leveraged to an improved demand back drop via its R&R exposure. Recent cost saving measures will make the leverage to improving demand even more appealing, while continued penetration of SharkBite Max and other new products will also assist. This is a great business with defensive characteristics, a healthy balance sheet, new product innovation and operating efficiencies to support future earnings growth.

Polynovo (PNV) - ADD

Small cap | Healthcare

PNV’s NovoSorb® technology has gained rapid market traction, initially in burns and extending into trauma. Consensus has revenue growing by >20% p.a. for the next three years. Factors that will drive the revenue growth include: 1) expansion into new regions like Japan, China and Brazil; 2) a successful tender application in India; and 3) construction of its third manufacturing facility which is expected to support an additional A$500m in sales (5 times current production volumes).

September removals

Coles (COL)

Large cap | Consumer Staples

While Liquor earnings remain weak, we expect the core Supermarkets division (94% of FY24 EBIT) to continue to be supported by further improvement in product availability, reduction in total loss, greater in-home consumption due to cost-ofliving pressures, and population growth. Benefits from recent supply chain investments should also start flowing through in FY25. Despite a reasonably positive outlook, we see COL's valuation as now fully captured in the price and we recently downgraded the stock to a Hold.

Inghams (ING)

Mid cap | Consumer Staples

Following the weak update at the result, ING is lacking catalysts. The stock is inexpensive but confidence is shaken by the loss of some WOW volumes. 1H25 result will likely fall on the pcp. They will return to growth in the 2H25.

Avita Medical (AVH)

Small cap | Healthcare

Avita has downgraded full year guidance which disappointed markets. Although the pipeline looks encouraging the market will take a little more convincing. The long-term opportunity remains but we remove AVH this month given the short term risks and replace it with PNV.

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