Insights
Our best ideas are those that we think offer the highest risk-adjusted returns over a 12-month timeframe supported by a higher-than-average level of confidence. They are our most preferred sector exposures.
As interest rates normalise, earnings quality, market positioning and balance sheet strength will play an important role in distinguishing companies from their peers. We think stocks will continue to diverge in performance at the market and sector level, and investors need to take a more active approach than usual to manage portfolios.
Additions: This month we add Elders.
July best ideas
Elders (ELD)
Small cap | Food/Ag
ELD is one of Australia’s leading agribusinesses. It has an iconic brand, 185 years of history and a national distribution network throughout Australia. With the outlook for FY25 looking more positive and many growth projects in place to drive strong earnings growth over the next few years, ELD is a key pick for us. It is also trading on undemanding multiples and offers an attractive dividend yield.
Technology One (TNE)
Small cap | Technology
TNE is an Enterprise Resource Planning (aka Accounting) company. It’s one of the highest quality companies on the ASX with an impressive ROE, nearly $200m of net cash and a 30-year history of growing its earnings by ~15% and its dividend ~10% per annum. As a result of its impeccable track record TNE trades on high PE. With earnings growth looking likely to accelerate towards 20% pa, we think TNE’s trading multiple is likely to expand from here.
ALS Limited
Small cap | Industrials
ALQ is the dominant global leader in geochemistry testing (>50% market share), which is highly cash generative and has little chance of being competed away. Looking forward, ALQ looks poised to benefit from margin recovery in Life Sciences, as well as a cyclical volume recovery in Commodities (exploration). Timing around the latter is less certain, though our analysis suggests this may not be too far away (3-12 months). All the while, gold and copper prices - the key lead indicators for exploration - are gathering pace.
Clearview Wealth
Small cap | Financial Services
CVW is a challenger brand in the Australian retail life insurance market (market size = ~A$10bn of in-force premiums). CVW sees its key points of differentiation as its: 1) reliable/trusted brand; 2) operational excellence (in product development, underwriting and claims management); and 3) diversified distributing network. CVW's significant multiyear Business Transformation Program has, in our view, shown clear signs of driving improved growth and profitability in recent years. We expect further benefits to flow from this program in the near term, and we see CVW's FY26 key business targets as achievable. With a robust balance sheet, and with our expectations for ~21% EPS CAGR over the next three years, we see CVW's current ~11x FY25F PE multiple as undemanding.
GUD Holdings
Large cap | Consumer Discretionary
GUD is a high-quality business with an entrenched market position in its core operations and deep growth opportunities in new markets. We view GUD’s investment case as compelling, a robust earnings base of predominantly non-discretionary products, structural industry tailwinds supporting organic growth and ongoing accretive M&A optionality. We view the ~12x multiple as undemanding given the resilient earnings and long-duration growth outlook for the business ahead.
Stanmore Resources
Small cap | Metals & Mining
SMR’s assets offer long-life cashflow leverage at solid margins to the resilient outlook for steelmaking coal prices. We’re strong believers that physical coal markets will see future cycles of “super-pricing” well above consensus expectations, supporting further periods of elevated cash flows and shareholder returns. We like SMR’s ability to pay sustainable dividends and its inventory of organic growth options into the medium term, with meaningful synergies, and which look under-recognised by the market. We see SMR as the default ASX-listed producer for pure met coal exposure. We maintain an Add and see compelling value with SMR trading at less than 0.8x P/NPV.
Morgans clients receive full access of the Best Ideas, including our large, mid and small-cap key stock picks.
Every day, you’ll read stories about people who’ve struck it rich (or simply got lucky) by taking a punt on the latest hot opportunity. It might be a stock that’s tripled in value, or the latest digital currency that’s being heavily promoted online.
It doesn’t matter which; all you know is that somewhere, somebody’s making a stack of money, and it’s not you.
You might even think you’re missing out, particularly if your investments are still recovering from the downturn last year.
You could be tempted to throw caution to the wind, and have a dabble in something hot.
Let’s just pause for a moment, and consider the difference between speculating and investing. One way to describe speculating is taking big risks, hoping you’ll get a big payoff.
That’s not what investing is about. Investing is about managing risks, not embracing them.
Manage the risk
One of the best ways of reducing investment risk is to spread your portfolio across a number of different investments, and types of investments.
It's the old 'don’t put all your eggs in one basket' theory, and it’s stood the test of time as an important way of smoothing investment returns and reducing risk.
The main investment classes – cash, fixed interest, property and shares – all carry different levels of risk, and all have provided different returns over time.
Historically, shares have been the best performer. But those returns have varied from a 30% gain in a good year, to a 50% loss in a bad year.
And nobody can predict which types of investments will perform best in the future.
At the other end of the spectrum, cash is safe (and there’s a government guarantee on bank deposits of up to $250,000).
But the return? In most accounts, it’s close to zero. If you take into account inflation, your bank return can actually be negative. If you hedge your bets, and spread your portfolio across cash, fixed interest, shares and property, there’s the potential for losses in one class of investment to be offset by gains in another.
You won’t get the peak returns of the share market in a boom year, but neither will you experience large losses.
Overall, your risk is lower, and your returns will be more consistent.
What is strategic asset allocation?
Strategic asset allocation is the process of choosing the mix of investment types that will meet your investment objectives, while minimising risk. And the best asset mix for you will depend on your investment timeframe, and how comfortable you are with risk.
There’s no one fixed asset allocation – it will vary between individuals.
A younger investor hoping to build wealth for the future might be comfortable with a high exposure to shares.
Somebody approaching retirement might be more cautious and balance their exposure to shares with higher levels of cash and fixed interest.
Setting a target asset allocation adds some discipline to your investment strategy.
It means sticking to a process that will optimise your returns, rather than chasing the hot opportunities that could make you rich (or broke).
Rebalance your portfolio annually
Just as there's no thing as a 'set and forget' investment, your asset allocation needs some attention from time to time.
At least annually, you should consider 'rebalancing' your portfolio. In any year, some of your investments will perform better than others.
Let’s suppose your original allocation to shares was 40% and the market has a good year. You might find shares now make up 50% of your portfolio. Rebalancing involves reducing your exposure to shares back to 40%.
In other words, you’re taking profits from assets that have performed well, and topping up your other investments.
Is your current asset allocation right for you?
If you’re not sure whether your current asset allocation is right for you, or you think it might need rebalancing, talk to your Morgans adviser or contact nearest Morgans office.
The Australian Government has completed a review of the retirement income system to assess how it will perform in the future as Australians live longer and the population ages.
The review, which was commissioned following a recommendation by the Productivity Commission, was not asked to make recommendations or propose changes to policy settings. However, it did uncover evidence that many aspects of the system need improved understanding.
Key observations and overview
The need to improve understanding of the system
- Dealing with complexity. Complexity and uncertainty, a lack of financial advice and guidance, and low levels of financial literacy are impeding people from understanding the system. As a result, some people fail to adequately plan for retirement and make poor decisions about how to use their savings in retirement.
- The nature of retirement income. Most people die with the bulk of the wealth they had at retirement intact. It appears they see superannuation as mainly about accumulating capital and living off the return on this capital, rather than as an asset they can draw down to support their standard of living in retirement. The family home is an underutilised source to support living standards in retirement.
- The nature of retirement. The nature of retirement has changed. For many, the transition from full time work to permanent retirement is gradual rather than abrupt. Some people retire more than once, others are involuntarily retired. There is no mandatory retirement age for most workers.
- The objective of the system. The retirement income system lacks an agreed objective. Differing views on the appropriate level of the Superannuation Guarantee (SG) rate stem from different views about the system's objective.
- Role of the pillars. The ‘pillars’ of the retirement income system are commonly seen as being the Age Pension, compulsory superannuation, and voluntary saving (including housing). Some see housing as a separate pillar.
- Dealing with diversity. The retirement income system covers people in very different circumstances: different incomes, time in the workforce, employment situation, capacity to save, home ownership status, risk preferences, financial literacy, partnership status and life events. While the system may provide adequate retirement incomes for many Australians, there is uncertainty about if and how it can compensate for those who may fall short, such as women, lower income renters, individuals not covered by the SG, involuntary retirees, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and those with disability.
Source: The Australian Government – The Treasury.
What does this mean for you?
This review has identified the need for greater financial advice for consumers, particularly when it comes to retirement planning, to help people understand the complex laws and regulations that are already in place.
Without this financial advice from qualified financial planners, you might be missing out on maximising your retirement potential.
Speak to one of our qualified Morgans advisers today to define your own retirement journey.
The A2 Milk Company (ASX:A2M) recently conducted its Annual General Meeting (AGM), maintaining its guidance amidst a backdrop of uncertainty. While the need for a significant 2H21 improvement is acknowledged, positive signs of recovery in corporate daigou demand and improvements in daigou channel inventory offer a glimmer of hope.
Revised Forecast and Investment Outlook
Forecast Adjustments
In response to prevailing uncertainties, our forecasts have been recalibrated. Despite A2M's guidance, we've adjusted our FY21 EBITDA forecast approximately 4% below the lower end of its guidance range, reflecting a cautious stance.
Investment Recommendation
Despite the prevailing uncertainty, we maintain an Add rating for A2M. While near-term earnings uncertainty may exert pressure on the company's share price, we remain optimistic about its medium to long-term prospects.
Maintained Guidance with Qualifications
Overview of 1H21 and FY21 Guidance
A2M has upheld its 1H21 and FY21 guidance as previously stated. 1H21 revenue is anticipated to be NZ$725-775 million, showing a decline of 4-10% compared to 1H20. FY21 revenue guidance stands at NZ$1.8-1.9 billion, with an EBITDA margin of approximately 31%, translating to EBITDA of NZ$558-589 million.
Dependency on 2H21 Improvement
Acknowledging the uncertain forecast, A2M stresses the necessity of substantial improvement in 2H21 (16-22% revenue growth compared to 2H20). This period's performance hinges on critical factors such as the daigou channel's improvement and sustained growth in China labeled products through the MBS channel.
Regional Updates
ANZ Region
A2M underscores the challenging trading conditions in 1H21, particularly due to the contraction in the daigou/reseller channel, exacerbated by Victoria's Stage 4 restrictions. However, recent weeks have shown initial signs of recovery in the corporate daigou, following the launch of incentive programs and the relaxation of lockdown measures in Victoria.
Asia Region
Sales growth in the MBS segment remains robust, driven by an expanded distribution footprint and increased sales velocities. The company's performance during the 11/11 sales event met expectations, with notable increases in English label IF sales volume.
North America Region
A reduction in FY21 EBITDA loss compared to FY20 is anticipated, aligning with previous forecasts.
Forecast Adjustments
Considering the uncertain 2H21 recovery, our revised forecasts stand below the guidance, projecting revenue of NZ$1,731 million and EBITDA of NZ$537 million for FY21.
Navigating Uncertainties Towards Growth
While uncertainties linger, A2M's comments on the improving daigou channel inventory offer a ray of hope. We view the current challenges as transitory, with A2M's robust balance sheet and quality growth trajectory underpinning our confidence in its long-term potential.
Morgans clients receive access to detailed market analysis and insights, provided by our award-winning research team. Begin your journey with Morgans today to view the exclusive coverage.
It seems Australians have been thinking more and more about the benefits of self-managed super funds (SMSFs) as they express concerns about their existing super fund in relation to transparency, liquidity and flexibility.
Despite the control, involvement and flexibility an SMSF can provide, there are a few things people need to consider before deciding if an SMSF is right for them.
Ask yourself the following questions:
- Is the fund strictly for benefits in retirement?
- Do you have the time to manage your own fund?
- Will the benefit be worth the cost?
- How will switching to your own SMSF affect your current superannuation benefits?
Having your own super fund to manage may sound easy. However, as you are the trustee of your own fund you are ultimately responsible for every decision you make. You need to understand there are some things you simply cannot do within your SMSF.
The regulator, the Australian Tax Office, will apply heavy penalties against trustees who break the law.
Watch
How much is enough?
This has been a hotly debated issue since the inception of SMSFs. Different people have different ideas as to exactly how much is needed to set up an SMSF. ASIC has recommended at least $500,000 for an SMSF.
It can be argued that people with less than this could easily manage their own SMSF, particularly if they are planning to make large contributions over time and/or have experience with investing.
The issue, of course, is cost. To remain cost effective it is generally accepted that the greater amount of funds pooled within the SMSF, the lower the cost average. Over the long term, as the SMSF account balance grows, the cost of running the fund becomes even more efficient.
# Paul and Mary are using a Corporate Trustee structure, which means an additional $455 ASIC fee. Bill and Ellie are using an Individual Trustee structure, so the only cost is the SMSF Trust Deed. * The ongoing company fee is a reduced ASIC fee because Paul and Mary are using a shelf company as the corporate trustee, and not an existing company. A shelf company acts as the corporate trustee only and is not associated to any other entity activities. ^ Administration fees charged by Morgans Wealth+ SMSF Solutions service and includes annual audit fee. This is an indicative cost only as the actual fee will depend on the administration/accountant service used. ** Ongoing portfolio fee - estimated average Morgans' Wealth+ fee
Size does matter
In relation to costs, clearly size does matter. There is a significant difference in the ongoing costs for Bill and Ellie compared to Paul and Mary. Even where Paul and Mary incur additional costs due to the corporate trustee structure, their average costs are less than half Bill and Ellie's.
If you would like to discuss whether a self-managed super fund is for you, or you would like to know more about what is involved in running your own SMSF contact your local Morgans office, or speak to your Morgans adviser.
"Our model tells us that on this occasion President Trump should be victorious over Biden by a margin of 5.76% of the popular vote. The predictive margin is 1.26 standard errors away from random. President Trump therefore has an 89.6% chance of being re-elected."
Listen to my podcast to find out where this data comes from. I also outline the stats prior to when Barack Obama was re-elected:
Listen to the podcast
Roughly 55% of the ASX300 have now reported results, with only a handful of the ASX50 yet to report. Woolworths, Stockland and Fortescue are notable large-caps reporting this week.
August has been a story of Cyclical and Consumer facing stocks in particular in terms of
- surprising overly fearful expectations, and/or;
- being well supported by the market even if they didn’t.
Whether this can continue when fiscal support scales down will be a key question as we exit August.
Ultimately FY20 results disrupted by lockdowns and COVID related one-off’s are less meaningful than usual, particularly given the broad lack of FY21 guidance seen so far. Ongoing company trading updates and the AGM season are going to be far more important than usual, providing us with more catalyst trading opportunities which have worked well for us so far.
Watch
I provide an overview of the results and current observations:
Results scorecard
We've seen the highest rate of smaller cap "Beats" for several years. More than half are Consumer facing (including Education and Gaming) with Retailers comprising a whopping one-third. General speaking, Cyclicals have surprised, while Defensives have underwhelmed.
Expectations vs ASX200
Retailers are the one bright spot regarding FY21 upgrades. Retailers to report have enjoyed +10% upgrades to FY21 earnings per share (EPS) expectations with ~8% share price gains on average.
Elsewhere we've seen the usual erosion to FY21 expectations with the largest negative contributors including Telstra, CBA, AGL and various US$ earners.
Market optimism
Result day reactions highlight market optimism. The strongest result day reactions are in line with recent history but we are yet to see the market punish disappointment anything like it usually does.
We know equity markets like to pre-empt the recovery phase of the economic cycle which is why AGM season, and not less useful FY20 actuals, will be so important to validate this positioning (or not), especially relative to stretched valuations.
Checking in on trading behaviour
In our Reporting Season Preview, we spoke about tactics for trading around discrete catalysts given the mood of the market.
Of the +60 Catalysts flagged through July and August, the "Flagged Beats" have outperformed the "Flagged Misses" by ~12% since the published reports.
Notable winners include Collins Foods, AP Eagers, ALS Limited, Data 3, Adairs, Virtus & Monash, Isentia, Superloop and Dominos.
What's interesting is that much of that performance has occurred in the lead-up to the catalyst, rather than on the announcement.
Given the lack of FY21 guidance so far, trading updates and the upcoming AGM season look like providing a host of further opportunities to trade tactically around the abnormal mood, valuations and momentum in this market.
Morgans clients receive access to detailed market analysis and insights, provided by our award-winning research team. Begin your journey with Morgans today to view the exclusive coverage.
