Our 'Best Calls to Action' aim to navigate you through the current reporting season by showcasing stocks with strong buying potential. They also offer insights into stocks that might not be ideal for growth right now. These recommendations come from thorough analysis of market trends, financial health, and growth potential, ensuring you access high-value investment opportunities.
Happy to buy today
IDP Education (ASX:IEL) - Difficult test, but uniquely placed to take market share
IEL reported FY24 underlying NPATA of A$154.3m, down 1% on the pcp. 2H24 reflected the impact of policy changes, with 2H NPATA down ~34% on pcp. Tighter and uncertain policy settings saw 2H24 IELTs volumes down ~24% HOH. Student Placement was solid (2H flat on pcp), although policy hadn’t fully impacted. IEL expects the international student market (new admissions) to be down ~20-25% in FY25. IEL expect to outperform this via meaningful market share gains. We think FY25 is likely to be the trough year for ‘student flows’, impacted by tighter policies and the associated uncertainty. We expect IEL’s earnings to fall ~12%, with some benefits from pricing; market share gains; and solid cost control.
We upgrade to an ADD rating.
Airtasker (ASX:ART) - Positive cashflow the likely new norm
With the recent quarterly trading update, ART had largely pre-released key operating metrics, with the FY24 result itself largely per expectations. However, it was a resilient performance by the marketplace overall, with an improved revenue profile despite top of funnel (GMV) headwinds. The business also achieved its planned target of being free cashflow positive (+A$1.2m) for the full year.
We maintain our ADD rating.
Alliance Aviation Services (ASX:AQZ) - Just too cheap
AQZ reported another record result in FY24, with underlying NPBT up 52% on the pcp and slightly ahead of MorgansF/consensus. We forecast earnings growth momentum (PBT growth of 10%) to continue into FY25 driven by deploying more E190 aircraft and increases in utilisation. We back this founder led management team with a strong track record to continue to execute from here.
We maintain our ADD rating.
Ai-Media Technologies (ASX:AIM) - An Olympic AI effort justifying investing for growth
AIM’s FY24 result showed the business is tracking well with revenue up 7% yoy, gross profits up 15% yoy and EBITDA up 25% yoy. Revenue and gross profit were inline with our expectations while our OPEX expectations were not high enough and consequently EBITDA was below our forecast, but still up 25% yoy. The AI transition risk is largely behind AIM now and operating conditions invert from headwinds to tailwinds. This has given management confidence in long term targets and on public conference call they talked to aspirational target of $150m of revenue and $60m of EBITDA in the next five year (FY29).
We maintain our ADD rating.
Trim/Funding Source
Wesfarmers (ASX:WES) - Kmart Group momentum continues
WES’ FY24 result was slightly above our forecast but in line with market expectations. Key positives: Kmart Group delivered strong earnings growth as its value proposition continued to resonate with customers; Group EBIT margin rose 10bp to 9.0%. Key negatives: Bunnings sales growth in early FY25 remains subdued, impacted by weakness in housing activity; Management expects Catch to be loss-making again in FY25, albeit at a reduced level relative to FY24.
We maintain our HOLD rating.
Tabcorp Holdings (ASX:TAH) - FY24 earnings: Off-track with costs
TAH’s FY24 result was one to forget. While the company’s topline slightly exceeded our estimates, it was overshadowed by a cost blowout and abandonment of TAB25 strategic targets. The company reported a statutory net loss of $1.36bn, mainly due to impairments. An unfranked 0.3c dividend was announced, bringing the total to 1.3c for FY24. While no quantitative trading update was provided, the company acknowledged that conditions remain challenging.
We downgrade to a HOLD rating.
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