Research notes
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Research Notes
FY26 result: Delivers maiden dividend
Viva Leisure
August 19, 2026
VVA delivered a strong FY26 result, which was slightly ahead of guidance. VVA focused on greater utilisation of existing facilities, rather than opening greenfield sites, lifting average members per club to a record 1,351. Utilisation was above 80% and EBITDA margins expanded 50bps to 47.4%. The board declared a maiden dividend of 3.0cps. We have increased NPAT by 2%/8% respectively in FY27/28. Our valuation increases to $2.27 (from $2.00). We maintain our BUY recommendation.
FY26 mixed; 2H margin recovery, but T27 slips
Healius
August 19, 2026
FY26 results were mixed, with revenue and underlying EBITDA broadly in line, but underlying EBIT 5% below consensus and at the bottom of guidance, reflecting still-thin Pathology margins. Encouragingly, Pathology EBIT margin improved materially in 2H, while labour costs fell 2.9% and group cost growth was contained. Agilex was again a clear positive, with revenue and earnings growth ahead of expectations. While FY27 EBIT guidance of A$39.7m is broadly in line with expectations, the T27 target for mid-to-high single-digit EBIT margins was extended by c18 months to Dec-28, leaving us cautious on the pace and sustainability of earnings leverage. We adjust FY27-28 estimates, with our target price increasing to A$0.43. HOLD
Model update post 3Q26 reporting
National Australia Bank
August 19, 2026
3Q26 cash profit growth trailed 2H26 consensus expectations, driven by slower revenue growth (particularly the relatively higher quality net interest income). No change to FY26F EPS, but FY27/28F moderated on lower net interest income growth outlook. DCF valuation declines -3% to $35.19/sh. TRIM retained. Potential TSR c.-5% at current prices (including c.4.4% yield).
FY26 Result: Price doesn’t reflect earnings profile
Amplitude Energy
August 19, 2026
AEL posted solid underlying earnings of A$45m, up from A$9m a year earlier, with the company continuing to deliver operationally. The market’s appetite for exploration in the sector remains depressed, but AEL stated that post delivering ECSP growth, it plans to target cash returns to shareholders. We maintain a BUY rating with a A$2.90 target price (previously A$3.05).
FY26 Result: Scale benefits expected
MoneyMe
August 19, 2026
MME’s FY26 result was largely pre-released. The business achieved gross revenue of ~A$249m, on a gross loan book of ~A$2.1bn. Momentum in originations growth (+34% to A$1.2bn) and a stronger exit RNIM (> 3.5%) augurs well for FY27, and we continue to expect MME to maintain a balance between profitability and growth as it seeks to benefit from scale. Our price target remains unchanged at A$0.21 and we maintain our Speculative Buy recommendation.
FY26 mixed – stabilising, but not re-accelerating
Cochlear
August 19, 2026
FY26 result was mixed, with underlying NPAT of A$322m, 6% above our forecast, despite revenue of A$2,348m being broadly in line. The result benefited from a stronger 2H, particularly Services and cochlear implant (CI) volumes, although margins remained under pressure. Notably, Nexa adoption has been solid, capturing >95% of developed-market (DM) implants, but has yet to translate into an acceleration in underlying market growth. FY27 NPAT guidance of A$330-350m implies only modest growth and not yet a material earnings inflection. We adjusted FY27-28 estimates modestly, with our target price increasing to A$138.42 on multiple roll-forward. HOLD.
FY26 result: A steady simmer
Breville Group
August 19, 2026
BRG delivered A$207m EBIT (+1% yoy) in line with guidance, in what was an exceptionally challenging year as the group navigated a volatile tariff backdrop and ongoing supply chain shocks via geopolitical conflicts. Revenue growth was slightly below expectations (~2%), as FX headwinds in the 2H (US ~10%; EMEA ~5%) detracted from the topline. Growth on a constant currency (cc) basis remains solid (+10%), and ongoing premiumisation tailwinds, and coffee (up double digits), have continued into FY27. We view BRG as having emerged from this transitional year as a better business, with a robust outlook. New market expansion continues to accelerate (+74% yoy), the NPD pipeline is strong and new initiatives (Best Buy) are driving a material step-change in sell out performance. We expect FY27 forecasts may prove conservative, with BRG able to return to a sustainable level of growth in FY27. We move to an ACCUMULATE (from BUY) purely on a valuation basis.
Hitting guidance sees share price hike
Ebos Group
August 19, 2026
EBO has posted its FY26 results and FY27 guidance, which were in line with consensus (Visible Alpha). The result was achieved despite higher fuel costs and FX headwinds and resulted in a ~10% jump in the share price. After a capital-intensive few years, management is asking the market and investors to look forward to the business returning to EPS growth from FY28. We have made modest changes to forecasts. Our target price is now A$22.93 (previously A$22.92). We maintain our Buy recommendation.
FY26 result: No quick fix
Step One Clothing
August 19, 2026
It was a challenging year for STP, following a significant pricing and promotional reset, which impacted sales and earnings. STP reported FY26 revenue down 27% to $63.7m, and reported a $1.7m EBITDA profit excluding the $9.1m inventory obsolescence provision. Our valuation lowers in line with earnings revisions in outer years, and lower peer multiples. We retain our HOLD recommendation with a $0.16 price target.
Stronger story, but no rush to chase
Avita Medical
August 19, 2026
2Q26 delivered record revenue, a second FY26 guidance upgrade, and net cash burn nearly halved QoQ, the clearest balance sheet de-risking since the cost reset. PermeaDerm-I hit its primary endpoint (70% cheaper than allograft, comparable healing). Small study, but a useful lead indicator for Cohealyx/RECELL cross-sell. The two updates support a more positive view on execution and portfolio breadth, though cash remains thin enough and debt balance big enough to keep a cautious stance. Our target price rises to A$2.20 p/s but given the share price rally, we move to a SELL recommendation. Happy to let the share price settle at current levels.
News & insights
October 22, 2026
October 22, 2026
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Where high Australian interest rates really come from
Michael Knox (AR: 000259340)
Chief Economist and Director of Strategy
October 20, 2026
October 19, 2026
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Investment Watch: Spring 2026 outlook
Andrew Tang (AR: 001007335)
Equity Strategist
Investment Watch is a quarterly publication that delves into key insights for equity and economic strategy. This edition arrives as markets enter the final quarter of 2026 facing higher interest rates for longer. Renewed tension in the Middle East has pushed energy prices back up, and the RBA and US Federal Reserve have both responded by raising rates.
October 14, 2026
October 14, 2026
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Why is the ASX underperforming global markets? Where Morgans sees opportunity
Dianne Colledge (AR: 000250860)
Private Client Adviser
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