Research notes

IDP’s recovery trajectory has pushed further to the right, guiding to another year of 20-30% SP volume declines and FY27 EBIT ~9% below prior market expectations. The macro backdrop remains challenging across key jurisdictions with elevated late-stage visa rejections (AUS), prolonged visa approval processes (UK) and sustained deep demand contractions in former prominent markets (CAD). Amidst this backdrop, the focus remains on cost out initiatives (~A$15m identified in FY27), while investing for future growth (~A$40m transformation costs in FY27). We had previously assumed a slower rate of volume decline in FY27 (-10%) and had anticipated cyclical earnings recovery in FY29. IDP’s continuation of a meaningfully softer volume outlook into FY27 has softened this view. Whilst we remain intrigued by the group’s China testing expansion and broader efficiency program, we have lower confidence in the earnings trajectory and are wary cyclical pressures will continue to overhang the stock. Downgrade to HOLD.

MP1’s FY26 underlying EBITDA and FY27 EBITDA guidance were above market expectations. Both Network and Compute delivered record growth. At first glance, simple maths suggests MP1’s funding position looks tight. However, there is nearly $500m of additional funding that got lost in translation. We think MP1 ends FY27 with nearly $600m of surplus liquidity (assuming no new deals get signed). Our maths is explained in detail overleaf. Deals already contracted deliver $620m of annualised contracted EBITDA which means after EBITDA lifts 3x YoY in FY27, it will more than double into FY28, based on deals already signed. We upgrade to a Buy recommendation and $25 target price.

BGA’s FY26 result came in at the higher end of guidance, despite the cost pressures associated with the conflict in the Middle East. The mid-point of FY27 guidance was slightly above consensus. BGA’s FY28 and FY31 growth targets were reiterated and underpin a solid earnings growth profile and strong balance sheet. We have made only minor changes to our forecasts. BGA remains well placed given its portfolio of iconic household brands, its focus on developing higher margin products with functional health benefits, its expansion into growth channels both domestically and overseas and network optimisation plans. After strong share price performance, we move to a Hold recommendation.

MGH delivered an FY26 result in line with updated guidance provided in early Aug-26. The FY27 outlook commentary was qualitative, with management expecting strong revenue and profit growth from continuing operations in FY27 on the back of record external work in hand of c.$1.2bn. Underlying EBITDA from continuing operations (but excluding Firmus revaluation) was $143m in FY26. We have this increasing to $223m in FY27 (+56%), with the two Firmus contracts representing the bulk of the growth, whilst transmission and distribution work should also book solid growth, offsetting a moderation in our commercial real estate revaluations expectations. For the past six months, MGH has been a story of transitioning to be predominantly an electrical contractor. This transition is largely complete, and for that reason we remove the peer multiple discount, seeing us retain our Buy recommendation with a $7.75/sh price target.

MAF’s 1H26 Underlying NPAT, ex large notable items (LNI, A$35.8m) was +59% on the pcp and appeared largely in-line with Factset consensus (A$36m). Overall we saw this as a strong result punctuated by continuing business growth, EBITDA margin expansion and an MA Money FY26 profit upgrade. We make relatively nominal changes to FY26F/FY27F EPS, of -1.6%/-0.7% respectively. Our price target rises marginally to A$8.66 (previously A$8.57), with our earnings changes offset by a valuation roll-forward. MAF has a consistent recent track record of delivery and, in our view, is well positioned to deliver strong long-term growth. With our PT implying more than 20% upside, we maintain our BUY call.

FY26 reflected MLG’s refreshed strategy to preference profitability over revenue growth. Revenue was +4% YoY while EBITDA grew +14% and NPAT +34%. 2H EBITDA margins expanded to 14%, approaching the 15% target and representing MLG’s strongest margin performance in recent history. FY27 should once again be a year of incremental margin improvement and double-digit NPAT growth – driven by an optimised haulage portfolio, stronger activity levels in crushing (DVP contract) and potentially some further civil works (subject to timing/awards). Our EBITDA forecasts are unchanged though NPAT decreases as we include (non-cash) loss on sales across our forecasts. Target price unchanged at $1.20.

A mixed FY26 result from FMG, with higher revenue helping to offset cost increases and elevated admin/R&D to help keep underlying earnings flat. With the focus on FY27 guidance, Iron Bridge remained a key issue, with the magnetite operation struggling through ramp up and with elevated costs. Plans for a green steel plant was big news, although difficult to quantify. We maintain a HOLD rating, with an A$18.70 target price (was A$21.80).

SUL delivered a better-than-expected FY26 result, as rebel World Cup tailwinds (+70% volume growth vs last WC), a resilient SCA through June and a lower tax rate (~26%) beat consensus normalised NPAT expectations by ~11%. Gross margins remained stable at the group level (+10bps yoy) and trading through FY27 is mixed (SCA leading; BCF/rebel muted; and Macpac underperforming), with group LFL growth of +1.5% through the first seven weeks. A positive update, driven by outperformance from SUL’s core SCA/rebel brands, while BCF is continuing to progress on strategic initiatives (store format/fitment), delivering +5.5% total sales growth and cycling easing comps in the near-term. Despite a solid start to FY27, we view the valuation (~14x PE) as reasonable relative to near-term growth expectations. HOLD maintained.

FY26 delivered solid organic growth, reinforcing our view that the core business is not structurally broken, but little operating leverage. Underlying EBITDA of A$1,933m (+11%) was broadly in line, while NPAT of A$621m (+17%) was 4% ahead, albeit including material NRIs. FY27 outlook is less compelling, with cc EBITDA guidance of A$1.95-2.03bn (+1-5%), with multiple cost and regulatory headwinds absorbing much of the benefit from continued organic growth, US operational improvements and acquisition synergies. We reduce FY27-28 underlying earnings and lower our target price to A$22.40. We move to HOLD, reflecting limited near-term earnings momentum and a lack of catalysts for share price outperformance.

NWH delivered a strong FY26, with NPATA/EPSA up +44%. Strong growth is set to continue with management guiding to FY27 EBITA of $320-330m. The levers into FY27 are clear. Mining will grow strongly from South Walker Creek expansion, Meandu commencement and latent fleet capacity. EMIT should benefit from margin expansion and tailwinds from rising DC demand, and Civil is leveraged to rising public infrastructure spend. MET faces the KCGM roll-off and is where we see some risk, but active tenders are a record >$2bn. We lift FY27-FY28 NPATA forecasts by +9-11% and raise our target price to $8.80 (from $8.00).