Research notes

We expect a material decline in 1H26 earnings, with recent share price strength driven by the expected capital return from the equipment finance whole-of-loan sale. Share price strength has compressed total return potential to c.5%. As such, we moderate our rating from ACCUMULATE to HOLD. Target price $7.39.

CWY has revised down its FY26 EBIT guidance as a result of the impacts of the war in the Middle East. We have updated our forecasts for the EBIT guidance downgrade and higher interest rate environment. EBITDA downgrades are relatively small but EPS downgrades are material in the short term given the funding and depreciation costs of CWY’s asset base. Target price $2.95/sh. BUY retained. Potential upside catalyst is next Tuesday’s strategy briefing.

Vertex is a global biotechnology company that invests in scientific innovation to create transformative medicines for people with serious and life-threatening diseases. Founded in 1989 in Cambridge, Massachusetts, the corporate headquarters is now located in Boston’s Innovation District, with the international headquarters in London, United Kingdom. Currently, Vertex has approximately 3,500 employees in the United States, Europe, Canada, Australia and Latin America with nearly two-thirds of staff dedicated to research and development. Vertex is recognised as one of the industry’s top places to work by Science Magazine, The Boston Globe, Boston Business Journal and the San Diego Business Journal. Vertex’s research and medicines have also received esteemed recognitions, including the Robert J. Beall Therapeutics Development Award, the French Prix Galien and the British Pharmacological Society awards.

WBC published a trading update ahead of its 1H26 result due for release on 5 May. Implied revenues were weaker, costs lower, and credit impairment charges higher than our and market expectations. We revise our rating from TRIM to SELL as total return expectations at current prices have fallen below the -10% trigger. We estimate c.18% price downside risk partly offset by c.3.8% forecast cash yield. Target price $34.06.

AstraZeneca is an Anglo-Swedish multinational pharmaceutical and biotechnology company headquartered in Cambridge, England. It is science-led and patient-focussed within its four primary therapy areas: Oncology, Biopharmaceuticals, Vaccine and Immune Therapies; and Rare Diseases. AstraZeneca is focussed on the discovery, delivery and commercialisation of prescription medicines.

PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates a technology platform that enables digital payments on behalf of merchants and consumers worldwide. The company provides payment solutions under the PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, PayPal Zettle, Hyperwallet, PayPal Honey, and Paidy names.

Mastercard is a technology company that provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally. It facilitates the processing of payment transactions, including authorisation, clearing, and settlements. The company offers integrated products and value-added services for account holders, merchants, financial institutions, businesses, governments, and other organisations.

We initiate coverage on Koala Company with a BUY recommendation and $5.13 target price. We think there is a degree of conservatism embedded in both our forecasts and valuation, with the balance of risk skewed to the upside. Koala offers an attractive growth profile, underpinned by strong sales growth, margin expansion and significant NPAT growth. The stock screens cheap on a multiple basis, trading on 18.5x FY27 PER versus the peer set average at 27.0x, despite offering one of the strongest growth profiles.

We have adjusted our CY26 production forecasts to better reflect the phasing of maintenance across assets and a revised production mix between cathode and sulphide output at Mantos Blancos and Mantoverde. Net these changes our target price moves to A$15.40ps (previously A$16ps) and we maintain our BUY rating.

BMC has received a positive Decision Document from the Government of Yukon for development of the ABM deposit at the Kudz Ze Kayah (KZK) Project. This represents the key de-risking milestone for KZK, addressing what has historically been the primary development headwind. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating and A$5.70ps price target (previously A$4.90), with the uplift driven by refreshed precious metals price assumptions and reduced permitting risk. The recent de-risking supports our assumption of future equity funding at 0.7x NAV (previously 0.6x NAV), resulting in lower dilution and a reduced forecast SOI.