Research notes

IMR continues to make solid progress across its clinical, regulatory, and commercial objectives. We expect the NorthStar mapping system to be approved in the US shortly and later in the year approval for atrial flutter. Commercial sales have been modest to date given the need to focus on recruitment for atrial flutter. We expect sales in Europe and ME to accelerate in 2026. We have adjusted down our sales forecast for FY26/27, however from FY28 onwards we see the commercial operations building quickly, particularly in the US. As a result of changes to our forecasts (short-term down, longer term up) our valuation has increased to A$2.71 (was A$2.22). We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation on IMR.

SMR delivered record quarterly results in 4Q25 across run-of-mine (6.0Mt), saleable product (3.9Mt) and product sales (4.0Mt) whilst dealing with unseasonally high rainfall. Increased sales helped operational cash flow that saw total cash increase to US$212m and net debt reduced by US$57m to US$33m. Isaac Downs is expected to deliver materially lower output in 2026 as mining progresses deeper into the pit and approaches less economic zones. Poitrel’s production is also forecast to ease after a standout 2025 performance. We downgrade our recommendation of SMR to TRIM with a revised target price of A2.95ps. Our target for SMR is set at a discount to NPV to reflect opacity in the short-term coal price outlook.

RRL delivered a strong 2Q26, with group gold production of 96.6koz Au supporting record quarterly cash and bullion generation of A$255m, lifting the balance to A$930m. The result was underpinned by stable performance at Duketon, a sharp uplift in gold sales at Tropicana and continued strength in spot gold prices. We maintain our HOLD rating, and price target of A$8.05ps (previously A$6.17ps) with the uplift a function of our updated precious metals price deck.

NWL delivered 2Q26 net flows of $4.16bn, and total FUA of $125.6bn, which was broadly in-line with consensus expectations and sees the group on track to deliver NWL’s FY26 net-flow targets. Revised FY26 EBITDA margin guidance will however see a larger step-up in opex than previously flagged as NWL looks to further accelerate investment in capabilities to support the broader push into the Broker and UHNW markets, with the view to accelerating revenue growth. We decrease our NPAT forecasts by -2/-8%/-6%, reflecting NWL’s FY26 EBITDA margin guidance and the inclusion of debt to fund NWL’s First Guardian client remediation. Following a ~52% decline in share price over the last 6 months, we now see NWL trading on an FY27F P/E of ~40x (vs. HUB on 57x), with TSR of +18% based on our revised price target of $28.90/sh. This sees us move to an ACCUMULATE rating (previously HOLD).

PNR delivered a soft operating quarter for 2Q, producing 22koz Au and AISC of A$2,571/oz. Ounce production was up 12% qoq but still lags the output required to meet guidance. On a half yearly basis, PNR have only delivered 39.6% of ounces using the guidance midpoint of 105koz, despite this guidance being reiterated, although is expected to be at the lower end. We update our model for the result and reiterate our TRIM rating, price target A$5.00ps (previously A$5.02ps).

STO posted a largely in line 4Q25 production and revenue result, although updates on its two key growth projects did flag some incremental negatives. Barossa ramp-up is dealing with an expected ~2-month delay vs planned. Pikka Phase 1 saw a ~US$200m upgrade in capex budget on a combination of cost pressures. Hiccups aside STO has done a good job executing, with Barossa and Pikka startups set to help the cash flow equation. Trading closed at a modest discount to our A$6.60 Target Price and we maintain our Hold rating.

GDG’s 2Q26 quarterly update saw a record Investment Bond (IB) sales performance, which appeared much better than market expectations, although Evidentia FUM came in 2% below Visible Alpha consensus. In our view, the IB performance made this a positive quarterly result overall, albeit the market clearly wants to see Evidentia FUM growth gain traction. We lift our GDG FY26F/FY27F EPS by 1%-2% with increases in our IB sales and FUM growth targets offsetting slight downgrades to our Evidentia FUM growth levels. Our GDG valuation is largely unchanged at A$7.97 (from A$7.95). We think GDG has a great story, and management has executed well over time. With the stock trading at a >20% discount to our target price, we maintain our Buy recommendation.

2Q26 was a modest beat at a group level operationally. Supported by strong alumina and silver output. FY26 guidance on operated assets unchanged, Brazil Aluminium under review. We have applied updated house precious metal forecasts to our estimates. Post-Illawarra divestment, S32 is ~90% base metal producer with limited execution risk (ex-Hermosa) and enjoying a healthy (and material) upgrade cycle from copper, aluminium and silver prices. Positioned to benefit from the upcycle, we maintain our BUY rating with a A$5.00 Target Price (was A$4.30).

2Q26 reflected temporary disruptions at Motheo, with production now clearly 2H weighted (46:54) supporting a stronger 2H26 outlook. 1H26 underlying EBITDA to be US$304m (+11% qoq) and SFR finished 1H26 in a net cash position of US$13m. Maintain HOLD with a A$18.90ps target price (previously A$17.50ps).

Strong 2Q26 with gold production and costs beating expectations. EVN generated record cash flow again. We expect EVN to reach net cash by the end of FY26. We maintain our TRIM rating as we view the stock as fully valued. However, we see merit in retaining some exposure given EVN’s significant leverage to gold and copper prices, which are currently at record levels.