Research notes

FY26 finished strong and mostly ahead of prospectus, but the more important development is showing greater visibility on the path to operating leverage. FY27 guidance calls for 25-35% revenue growth, 50-52% gross margin and a US$95-101m adjusted EBITDA loss, with management expecting c90% of incremental gross profit to translate into adjusted EBITDA improvement. Salesforce maturation is key, with 161 US reps at FY26 year-end, 55% fully trained and the majority of the remaining cohort expected to come online in 1HFY27. Growth looks set to come from higher productivity rather than simply adding headcount, with c30% of territories operating below a 40% fully loaded rep-cost/revenue threshold, providing evidence that the territory economics can work. We see FY27 as the first meaningful test of the model’s scalability, with higher physician utilisation, maturing territories and the CAP24 paddle lead providing potential upside to guidance. We adjust FY27-28 forecasts, with our DCF-based target price moving to A$2.17 (from A$2.94). SPECULATIVE BUY maintained.

CKF's AGM trading update was positive. Group sales rose 6.6% over the first 17 weeks of FY27, with Australia resilient and European SSS (same-store-sales) inflecting from the weak start over the last 4 weeks, which we view positively in a tough consumer environment. Trading strengthened through the last 4 weeks, with KFC SSS of +3.1% in AU, +3.1% in the Netherlands, driven by the new Halal-certified range, and -0.1% in Germany, a material improvement on the -7.8% (Netherlands) and -7.2% (Germany) start over the first 8 weeks. We retain our BUY rating and A$10.60 target price; Australia is resilient and Europe is re-accelerating.

We upgrade from HOLD to ACCUMULATE, given potential TSR at current prices of c.12% (including cash yield of 5.7%). 12 month target price +4 cps to $5.47/share due to refinements to tax modelling. Otherwise, no change in our fundamental outlook for the business over coming years.

Income Asset Management (IAM) has released its FY26 result (key metrics having been pre-released in the 4Q26 trading update). Revenue of A$20.2m was +18% on pcp (~4% under our estimate), though this included a ~A$2m one-off insurance payment related to the fraud claim; excluding it, operating revenue was up ~6% to A$18m. Normalised costs reduced ~10% to A$18.06m and the statutory loss of ~A$3.6m improved on FY25's ~A$7.1m. A disrupted year, but with both the fraud and recent legal matters now settled, focus now shifts to strategy execution and business performance in FY27. We reduce FY27-29F revenue by 15-16%, largely on more conservative assumptions around bond/loan FUA growth. Our forecasts now have IAM reaching EBITDA and NPAT breakeven in FY27, and generating positive free cash flow. Our price target reduces to A5.9cps from A7.3cps on these changes.

FDV's 1H26 NPAT (US$2.5m) came in comfortably above MorgansE (US$1.8m). Overall, we think this result shows management's flagged strategy playing out as intended. Revenue fell steeply (-27% on the pcp), a deliberate result of the pullback from non-core, low-margin revenue streams, offset by materially improving margins and cash flow. This result included significant disclosure changes, notably the switch in reporting currency from A$ to US$. Off a lower base, we raise our underlying NPAT forecasts by more than 40% over the next few years, driven mainly by higher expected associate profits, lower D&A, and a review of significant items disclosures. Our PT is set at A$0.61cps (previously A$0.56cps). We see long-term value in FDV given its unique assembled portfolio, and with significant upside to our PT (A$0.61) we maintain our BUY call. This result included significant disclosure changes, notably the switch in reporting currency from A$ to US$. Off a lower base, we raise our underlying NPAT forecasts by more than 40% over the next few years, driven mainly by higher expected associate profits, lower D&A, and a review of significant item disclosures. Our PT is set at $0.61cps (previously A$0.56cps).

SIQ reported 1H26 NPATA of A$42.4m, up 11% yoy and broadly flat on 2H25. Strong revenue growth (+5.5% hoh) was absorbed by higher opex spend (+7.3% hoh), softening EBITDA margins to 41.1% (-100bps on 2H25). Lease order momentum remains very strong (+34% yoy) and the commanding revenue pipeline of A$22.5m should solidify the near-term outlook. Given the meaningful share price pullback, we upgrade to an ACCUMULATE (previously HOLD). The 2H will benefit from the unwind of a substantial revenue pipeline, an ongoing supportive demand backdrop across novated leasing (policy led) and potential full-year capital management initiatives. A$12.15ps price target.

EPY’s recent FY26 result saw the group deliver underlying NPATA of $3.7m down from $5.1m in FY25, in line with the group’s revised FY26 guidance. EPY returned to Stat. NPAT profit in 2H26, resulting in a final dividend of 0.18cps (ff). Funds-in-use in EPY’s core Invoice Finance division has lifted ~10% yoy, whilst the Trade Finance rebalancing away from large exposures is now complete. Equipment Finance originations continued to lift in 2H26, with FIU up +39% yoy. FY27 NPATA Guidance of $4.8m-$5.2m (~30-40% yoy) reflects EPY’s improved financing cadence, network expansion and reset cost base post platform migration.

GMG's FY26 result (reported 20-August) was solid and in line at the headline, with OEPS of 129.9cps (+10.1% on pcp) matching both MorgansF and consensus. In terms of composition, development earnings (+34% on pcp) carried the result, offsetting softer Management and Property investment earnings. The market remains focused on the pending data centre pipeline, with WIP having increased 53% to $19.7bn (78% data centres) at an 8.2% yield on cost. Leasing is progressing alongside construction, but with only a single 50MW Tokyo lease signed, investors are looking for further hyperscale conversions. We remain positive on the medium-term earnings trajectory, underpinned by a funded development book, low gearing (6.5%, 19.5% look-through) and scarce metro land and power. We retain our ACCUMULATE rating with a $33.20/sh TP.

The FY26 annual report confirms the numbers already flagged via quarterlies, but the real signal is the FY27 outlook section, which reads as almost entirely execution language now the balance sheet question is solved.  The market is still waiting on an FDA decision for its Heart Failure (HF) application, which remains the key near-term catalyst and value inflection driver. Despite delays, we maintain a positive view on approval. Speculative Buy retained and A$1.85 p/s target price unchanged.  

FY26 normalised NPBT was up 20% (vs pcp), 1% above MorgansF and in line with consensus, as FUM increased 36% to $11.9bn. More importantly, FY27 guidance for NPBT of $74m to $80m was above MorgansF and bracketing consensus - a modest beat. The FY26 result leant on performance fees while the recurring base management fee line was broadly in line. Operationally, QAL keeps benefiting from the retreat of retail and wholesale lenders (better terms and deal flow) and strong institutional demand for underlying funds, with a record $6.5bn deployed at a post-IPO high of 45.4% gross operating margin. We remain a BUY with a target price of $3.90/sh, with operational outperformance continuing to run counter to the adverse narrative toward private credit.