Research notes

The market should be broadly comfortable with the result given recent trading updates, but new contract delivery remains the key requirement before investors are likely to begin marking the stock materially higher. Revenue and OPEX landed broadly in line with guidance, while the NPAT miss was driven by a A$1.9m restructuring charge and a weaker tax benefit rather than deterioration in the core subscription business. Moderate increase in target price due to model roll-forward, lower share count, and leaner-than-expected cost base. Our target price rises to A$0.48 (from A$0.44) and we retain our Buy recommendation. Upside potential to target presents an opportunity but needs new contract momentum to spark renewed interest.

Airtasker's (ART) FY26 result was broadly in line with our expectations. Group revenue grew ~10% on pcp to A$57.8m (marketplaces revenue ex-OneFlare +15.5% to A$52m), and its earlier stage offshore marketplaces (UK/US) showed accelerating momentum and strong topline growth (+55%/150% respectively). ART also announced media deals with OML and Nova, extending the brand investment runway (media inventory to deploy from FY27 now ~A$24m). We make several changes to our assumptions across the forecast period (details below). Our price target remains unchanged at A$0.47. We retain our BUY recommendation.

IPD posted FY26 results which were lower than our forecasts. IPD completed a $15m capital raise providing an opportunity to grow SOZO placements in the US. The cadence of growth needs to accelerate for IPD to achieve break-even. We have revised forecasts down with a resultant adjustment to our TP, now $0.009 (was $0.01). We move to a HOLD recommendation (from SPECULATIVE BUY) while we wait to see growth in the SOZO installed base.

CHL’s FY26 result was largely pre-released. However, while bookings late in the year were clearly impacted by macro and geopolitical events (e.g. fuel security concerns), the cost-out achieved in a softer top-line environment was a net positive and looks to have structurally reset the cost base going forward. CHL achieved positive EBITDA of A$0.3m for the full year on revenue of ~A$39m (-7% on pcp). While ANZ is showing some early signs of recovery (future bookings having risen to a degree), Europe remains a drag. Our DCF/multiples derived valuation and price target remains at A$0.70, and we retain our BUY recommendation.

Jumbo Interactive (JIN) delivered underlying EBITDA of $85.2m (+25%) and NPATA of $50.6m (+20%), landing above the top of the July pre-release, despite a second consecutive year of historically weak jackpots in Australia. Despite this, the stock closed 3% lower on the day, likely reflecting the uncertainty around Brightstar and FY27 guidance that sat below market expectations in parts, which we regard as conservative. International (Managed Services + Prize Draws) is scaling well, contributing $30.3m vs $7.0m in FY25, while Australia fell 10% on continued large jackpot softness. Following the result, our FY27-28F EPSA estimates reduce 2-4%, and we forecast JIN to return to a net cash position by FY29. We retain a BUY recommendation, with a revised target price of $9.81 (was $10.25).

Strength in the mix - QAN delivered a broadly in-line FY26 result despite a significant fuel cost headwind in 2H26, with a stronger-than-expected performance from Jetstar offsetting softer Domestic earnings. Group Underlying PBT of $2.06bn finished ~3% ahead of consensus, highlighting the resilience and diversification of the earnings base. TRASK tailwind emerges - QAN expects Domestic and International TRASK to increase 8-10% in 1H27 while Group capacity remains broadly flat, pointing to a more supportive revenue backdrop despite elevated fuel costs. We maintain our ACCUMULATE rating with a reduced-price target of A$10.60ps (previously $11.50).

BETR Entertainment (BBT) finished the year strongly, with normalised EBITDA of $6.1m in the second half against guidance of $5m to $8m, a $19.3m swing on the first half. Full year normalised EBITDA of -$7.1m was a touch below our -$6.2m, with a gross profit beat offset by a higher cost of doing business. Encouragingly, current trading remains healthy. Through the first eight weeks of FY27, turnover is up more than 20%, new customers have almost doubled, CPA is down 31% and promotional cost is down 9%, all excluding the FIFA World Cup. The company announced the launch of its new first to market 'Wildcards' same game multi (SGM) feature that will launch during the Wildcard AFL round this weekend. Our EBITDA estimates increase 2.6% in FY27 and 3.5% in FY28. We maintain our BUY recommendation, with an unchanged target price of $0.36.

FDC started listed life with a modest ~2% NPAT norm beat vs prospectus forecasts and FY27 prospectus forecasts reaffirmed. With 89% of FY27 revenue secured as at 30 June, this in our view significantly de-risks FY27 and increases our confidence in upside risk to forecasts. We retain our ACCUMULATE rating and increase our price target to $4.27 (from $3.97).

OCL’s FY26 result was largely in line with expectations. The result came however with more sticker shock in the form of another legacy contract loss leading to a further $3.2m ARR reduction. OCL enters FY27 with ARR of $114.1m. Despite this softening & FX headwinds during the year, OCL continued to see strong underlying SaaS growth momentum and progress of a number of strategic milestones (including the launch of Build Australia), which is key to ARR momentum and FY27+ outlook. Rebasing our forecasts for OCL’s revised FY27 ARR and guidance sees our NPAT estimates reduce by ~18-21% in FY27-28F. Following these revisions OCL is trading on FY27F P/E of 24x, with a share price near 5 years lows. We therefore reiterate our BUY rating with a revised PT of $8.50/sh.

GDG’s FY26 group underlying NPAT (A$40.7m) was +21% on the pcp, but appeared 2.5% below Visible Alpha consensus (A$41.7m).  The FY26 result was arguably overshadowed by disclosure of higher future investment spend (opex and capex) to capture opportunities in Generation Life and Evidentia. This spend came in above our expectations, as did the pace at which GDG's tax rate has normalised. We downgrade our FY27F/FY28F EPS by 5%/8% on higher cost guidance than expected. Our PT is lowered to A$5.98 (previously A$6.89). We still think GDG remains well placed to benefit from structural growth tailwinds, and with >20% upside to our PT we maintain our BUY call.