Research notes

SVR has over the last two quarters seen a step change in Australian originations and book growth momentum, with Bennji volumes starting to make an increasingly meaningful contribution. This return to book growth bodes well for SVR’s revenue outlook into FY27+, as Australian growth offsets the roll-off of revenues in NZ. Looking to FY27, we reset our earnings expectations to reflect: 1) recent rate rises impacting funding rates; 2) a lift in operating costs associated with rising Bennji originations; and 3) the sale of SVR’s NZ arrears, which is a one-off pull-forward of provisioning benefits into FY26 that will not be replicated in future periods. As SVR leans further into commercial lending and reinvests into book growth, we now expect the group to deliver normalised NPAT of $36m/$30m/$32m in FY26–28, respectively. Our changes result in a revised PT of $1.65/sh (previously $2.00).

JDO downgraded its FY26 PBT guidance by c.8% at the mid-point. Even more disappointing was first-time FY27 PBT guidance which was c.16% below expectations at the mid-point. The share price drawdown was vicious (particularly considering the decline that had already occurred since February). While the earnings growth outlook has moderated, we still forecast c.30% EPS growth across both FY26 and FY27 with the stock now trading on a c.6.8x PER (FY27F) and 0.6x P:BV (end-FY26). A significant risk premium or probability of failure has been priced into the stock. BUY.

BBN reported a weaker than expected trading update, downgrading its pro-forma NPAT by ~11% at the midpoint of guidance. The downgrade was driven by softer sales, particularly in the 4Q, and increased supply chain costs. Our price target lowers to $1.70 (from $1.79), and we maintain our ACCUMULATE rating. Despite a softer consumer environment, we see the strength of the refurbished store program likely to underpin earnings growth in FY27. Trading at <9x PE, we see the current price as a compelling entry point to accumulate.

Hot-on-the-heels of the Maxim acquisition announced earlier this month, TEA has entered into an agreement to acquire JPS Group, a specialist integrated services provider to energy sector, for $50m upfront (5x FY26 EBIT) or up to $75 million inclusive of all earn-outs (7.5x FY26 EBIT or just 6.2x $12m maintainable EBIT). This adds scale and an important growth lever to the underperforming Mechanical division, with JPS expected to double revenue by FY29. For the base business, FY26 guidance of $117m EBIT and $72.5m NPAT has been reiterated. We increase our EPS forecasts by +5-6% in FY27 and FY28. Our target price rises in line with our earnings forecasts to $9.80 (from $9.15).

ATR's flagship Donald Project is shovel-ready and on track for a Phase 1 FID in the Sept-Q 2026, with project financing and HMC offtake the final gating items. A newly released Phase 2 study and JV partner Energy Fuels' rapid US rare earth processing build-out reinforce the long-term upside of this high-quality, ex-China critical minerals developer. Maintain SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a A$0.90ps target price.

We mark-to-market our second half estimates for weaker spot gas prices, while also trimming our Waitsia output forecasts for FY26-28 on continuing struggles. After downgrading our Q4 estimates for daily production rates, we see potential for BPT to fall just short of its FY27 group production guidance. While BPT’s share price has already been under pressure, its earnings outlook has declined at a faster rate, with its forward EV/EBITDA actually rising. We downgrade our recommendation to Sell (from Hold) with a revised target price of A$0.81 (was A$1.10).

RWC has announced plans to close its Australian brass casting, forging and machining operations, along with several smaller sites, as part of its ongoing global footprint rationalisation program. We think the decision makes sense given RWC’s reduced reliance on Australian-sourced brass in recent years. Annualised net savings are expected to be ~US$9m by the end of FY27, with benefits in the Americas more than offsetting an adverse impact on APAC earnings. One-off costs of US$100-110m (including ~US$5m cash) are expected to be incurred in FY26. We make no changes to underlying assumptions, with changes to earnings forecasts reflecting the one-off costs in FY26 and net benefits expected across FY27 and FY28. RWC’s valuation remains undemanding (12.8x FY27F PE) and recent developments related to the Middle East conflict should be positive for the global macroeconomic outlook. However, US housing demand remains subdued with 30-year fixed mortgage rates still around 6.5%. The timing of a recovery in housing activity remains uncertain and we therefore maintain our HOLD rating. Our target price rises to A$3.60 (from A$3.25).

Credit Clear (CCR) is a leading Australian debt collections business, which focuses on contingent collections. CCR has to date made solid progress in establishing a commanding foothold within ANZ. We see the group's recently formed beachhead in the larger UK market as a material consolidation prospect to drive further scale. We initiate coverage on CCR with a Speculative Buy rating and $0.30 price target.

Following its merger with Berry Global in April 2025, AMC identified a non-core portfolio of ~US$2.5bn in revenue. These lower-growth or lower-margin businesses where AMC lacks scale or leadership positions are expected to be divested over time via cash sales or joint ventures/partnerships. While there is a range of scenarios that can play out, using conservative assumptions, we estimate the combined non-core portfolio could be worth ~US$1.8bn. To date, AMC has reached agreements to sell six businesses for a combined value of ~US$500m. AMC plans to use proceeds from non-core asset sales to reduce leverage, which stood at 3.8x at the end of 3Q26. While management expects leverage to end FY26 at 3.4-3.5x, the stretched balance sheet remains a key investor concern. Our analysis indicates a strong negative relationship (correlation coefficient -0.76) between AMC’s leverage and its 1-year forward PE multiple. We therefore expect a reduction in leverage to support an improvement in AMC’s PE multiple over time. We make no changes to our earnings forecasts and maintain our A$65.40 target price. However, with a 12-month forecast TSR of 18%, we move our rating to ACCUMULATE (from BUY).

IDP delivered a positive update, including better-than-expected net cost out in FY26 (A$30m vs A$25m), potential further cost reductions in FY27 and strong capital management discipline (deleverage to ~1x in FY26-27; ~A$50m buy-back). We are encouraged by management’s confidence in the progress of the multi-year business transformation, highlighted by the stated ~A$50m buy-back and ongoing operational performance (yield strength; working capital discipline) in a subdued volume backdrop. The update incrementally reinforces our recent upgrade. Our volume expectations remain conservative, with no meaningful SP recovery assumed until FY29 (-10% FY27; -3% FY28; +3% FY29). We remain willing to look through a cyclically depressed valuation for a leaner market leader, underpinned by structural demand, ongoing tech/product development and China testing optionality. BUY rec.