Research notes

Given the Middle East conflict affected trading in March, WEB’s FY26 result came in at the lower end of guidance, albeit better than consensus, proving its resilience. Unsurprisingly, WEB’s FY27 update showed that trading has slowed materially given the conflict. Adverse FX has been another headwind. Given the uncertainty, WEB did not provide any formal FY27 earnings guidance. We have made significant downgrades to our forecasts. We assume that the conflict and a subdued consumer environment impacts WEB’s 1H27 (seasonally stronger half), followed by a recovery in the 2H27. After material share price weakness, we upgrade WEB to a BUY rating. The company is worth materially more than the current share price. We know from past economic and geopolitical events, that after a downturn, travel demand rebounds and so will its earnings and share price.

APE delivered a mixed AGM update. Key OEM supply constraints tempered 1H26 expectations, with ANZ 1H26 PBT guided flat/slightly ahead yoy (7-11% below cons), while record order intake (>29% ahead of deliveries YTD) and ANZ/CAD acquisition contributions support a robust 2H outlook. We expect guidance may prove conservative, with the group yet to work through the peak May/June trading period (~50% of 1H profit) and supply conditions remaining constrained across key OEMs. Despite some near-term earnings uncertainty, we continue to view a meaningful structural opportunity across consolidation (AUS/CAD), strategic alliances (Mitsubishi Corporation), used vehicles (EA123) and ongoing NEV leadership. We see recent share price pressure (~18x FY27F PE) as an attractive entry point given the earnings trajectory ahead (CY27F EPS growth ~19%).

Industry consolidation may spark additional interest in TLX. However, recent news flow around convertible note refinancing, a solid 1Q26 sales (up 11%) and the Regeneron collaboration shows there is plenty happening inside TLX. TLX points to several milestones expected in 2026 including a FDA clearance for the brain cancer diagnostic and resubmission of the kidney cancer diagnostic. Consensus has a target price of A$24.33 which provides significant upside to the current share price.

Regimen I of the HEALEY ALS Platform Trial expanded from 160 to 240 participants (180 active / 60 placebo), driven by the absence of a concurrent regimen and enrolment running materially ahead of schedule. Topline results now expected in early 3Q CY27, with its trial partner covering the bulk of incremental costs. No change to NUZ's funding requirements. Net positive update with potential timeline compression, and a more statistically robust and straight forward dataset. Higher risk free rates and FX assumptions drags our valuation down to A$0.20 (from A$0.28). Spec Buy.

IFT’s FY26 result was strong with net proportionate EBITDA from continuing operations lifting ~11% YoY and coming in 4% ahead of our forecast. Proportionate capex was above our forecast. It lifted 17% YoY and is set to lift ~57% in FY27 as management recycles capital to reinvest in IFT’s key growth assets. Portfolio Asset Value lifted 13% YoY to NZ$20.6bn, in line with our expectations. IFT declared a 13.65c final dividend, in line with earlier guidance. We retain our ACCUMULATE recommendation and lift our Target Price ~22% to $13.80, following CDC’s largest ever contract win.

GMG's 3Q26 update reinforced a deliberate strategy: deploy balance-sheet capital ahead of customer commitments to win the race for power-enabled metro data centre (DC) capacity. WIP is set to step from $14.5bn at Mar-26 to a record c.$18bn by Jun-26 (Consensus $17.7bn), with the power bank lifted to 6.4GW. Operationally the update was mixed, with pre-committed share, production rate and Yield On Cost (YOC) all relatively flat hoh. The structurally important note was management's view that industry DC capex requirements likely exceed global capital market funding capacity, a backdrop that favours those with secured power, sites and locked-in capital partners. FY26 OEPSg guided to ‘at least 9%’ (prior 9%; MorgansF 9.2%; Consensus 9.8%), marginally up. We partially reverse the discretionary discount applied in our March sector update (-10% to -5%) reflecting growing conviction in the capital-scarcity moat and peer pre-commit validation, noting that GMG's own leading indicators have not yet inflected. BUY reiterated; TP to A$36.00/sh.

ARX posted its FY26 result which was in line with the recently released trading update and our forecast. Higher sales and marketing spend in FY27 results in a flat EBITDA, however the benefits of this investment will be seen in FY28/29 where a significant step up is expected. As a result of changes to forecasts and the roll forward of our model, our target price increases to A$0.79 (from $0.77). We maintain a BUY recommendation.

SYL’s recent investor day left us with the impression that the pipeline of potential work is immense, as the business progresses its $7.5bn of recently tendered work, along with a further $1.4bn of projects in early contractor involvement (‘ECI’). Across the key verticals of infrastructure, digital, energy and defence, the total addressable market continues to grow, which along with M&A, could see the business delivering early on its FY30 aspirational EBITDA target of $200m. Given SYL’s history of winning approximately one out of four tenders and no sign of Government investment budgets abating, the investment thesis for SYL as the ‘picks and shovels’ of the infrastructure build out remains intact. On this basis, we reaffirm our Buy rating and $3.35/sh price target.

WES’s share price has fallen 9% over the past 12 months and 7% over the past 6 months. The stock is now trading on a more reasonable 26.5x FY27F PE compared to a peak one-year forward multiple of ~37x in August 2025. We adjust FY26/27/28F group EBIT by +0%/+2%/+2%, primarily reflecting higher lithium earnings driven by updated price assumptions. Our target price increases slightly to $81.10 (from $80.50) and with a forecast 12-month TSR of 12%, we upgrade our rating to ACCUMULATE (from TRIM). In our view, WES remains a high-quality business with a healthy balance sheet and a proven management team. Amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and cost-of-living pressures, its retail divisions (Bunnings, Kmart Group, Officeworks, Priceline) are well-placed to grow due to their strong value propositions. A sustained improvement in lithium prices should also support earnings over the medium term.

4Q25 spodumene production fell -10% qoq, but the result was lifted by sales which were +4% qoq. LTR finished FY25 with A$156m of cash (-10% qoq). FY26 will be a transitional year with production and cost reductions to be 2H26 weighted as LTR ramps up underground mining. We maintain our SELL rating with a A$0.56ps target price (previously A$0.50ps)