Research notes
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Research Notes
4Q traffic/toll revenue release + FX + French tax
Atlas Arteria
January 30, 2026
12 month target price reduced 16 cps to $4.58, in response to mild forecast traffic and revenue adjustments, update to spot AUDEUR and AUDUSD, and assumed one year extension of the temporary supplemental tax in France into 2026. HOLD retained, given c.1% total potential return at current prices (including c.8% cash yield based on 40 cps DPS guidance).
2Q26 Result: in line, throughput and underground in focus for 3Q
Meeka Metals
January 30, 2026
MEK delivered its 2Q26 operating result as the Murchison Gold Project continues to ramp up. Gold production increased 28% quarter on quarter to 9.1koz Au and was in-line with MorgansF of 9.3koz Au. Ounce production was underpinned by a mill head grade of 3.3g/t Au, ~10% above MorgansF assumptions; however, this grade outperformance is partially offsetting lower-than-expected throughput. Looking ahead, improvements in mill throughput, driven by underground production remain key to maintaining alignment with PFS forecasts We maintain our BUY rating, price target A$0.33ps (previously A$0.33ps) and update our precious metals price deck.
2Q26 update: Seeds in. Shoots later
Mach7 Technologies
January 30, 2026
M7T posted its 2Q26 cashflow report, reporting a breakeven operating cashflow following marked improvements in cash collection and a streamlined expense position through normalised billing and lower staff costs. ARR remained stable at A$23.0m, while CARR declined to A$26.1m following the known VHA and Trinity headwinds, partially offset by the first Flamingo Architecture customer win and growth from existing clients. Execution momentum strengthened, including positive RSNA-generated leads, improved eUnity KLAS scores, and cost-outs across the organisation. Positive update and M7T appears seeded for good growth opportunities into FY27. No changes to forecasts or target price and our Buy recommendation remains.
Imaging a bigger 2026
Micro-X
January 30, 2026
MX1 posted a solid 2Q26 cash flow report. Highlights included a capital raise which has taken the funding question off the table and receipt of the largest Rover Plus order to date. Key catalysts to focus on include: receipt of additional Rover sales orders; commencement of Head CT human imaging trial; and monetisation of non-core security assets. We have made no changes to our forecasts or valuation. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation and believe 2026 will be a transformational year for MX1.
2Q26: Outperformance lifts FY26 expectations
Whitehaven Coal
January 29, 2026
WHC delivered a substantial beat versus Visible Alpha consensus and MorgansF in 2Q, with managed ROM production reaching 11 Mt, up 21% on 1Q. Strong 2Q production reduces execution risk in 2H and has positioned WHC to take advantage of current higher hard-coking coal prices. FY26 ROM production and coal sales forecasts have been upgraded to the upper half of guidance. We have made material upgrades to Revenue, EBITDA & NPAT. We rate WHC a HOLD (previously ACCUMULATE) with a target of A$9.75ps (previously A$7.95ps).
Well positioned through ramp-up with price strength
Liontown
January 29, 2026
2Q26 result beat expectations on production and costs. Balance sheet de-risked following LG Energy Solution’s election to convert its US$250m convertible notes into equity, removing debt and strengthening flexibility despite dilution. Maintain TRIM with much of the near-term upside factored into its share price.
Mahalo deal done, working on debt funding
Comet Ridge
January 29, 2026
Undoubtedly the highlight of the December quarter was Comet securing a binding agreement to acquire JV partner and operator Santos’ (STO) stake in the Mahalo Gas Project on attractive metrics. NAIF debt process has now progressed into the due diligence phase. Upstream FEED is nearing completion, with pipeline FEED also progressing. We maintain a SPECULATIVE BUY rating and A$0.25 target price, but see a material increase in upside risk being unlocked by this acquisition once funded.
Strong execution in a supportive cycle
Mineral Resources
January 29, 2026
2Q26 result beat expectations across all divisions. Lithium optionality increases in the current pricing environment, with potential to increase volumes at Mt Marion and Wodgina and re-start Bald Hill. Deleveraging has accelerated. Net debt now sits at A$4.9bn (A$5.4bn last quarter). Maintain HOLD. Valuation appears full at 7x ND/EBITDA but strong execution, balance sheet momentum and a supportive commodity backdrop underpins ongoing exposure.
Appraisal gathers momentum as 2026 takes shape
Omega Oil & Gas
January 29, 2026
Progress on Omega’s Canyon appraisal project, and a strategic investment in Taroom peer Elixir Energy, have increased upside risks and optionality. Acquired 19.43% equity stake in Elixir Energy (EXR), funded via placements. Transformational appraisal year with wells planned for both OMA’s eastern flank and EXR’s western flank. Canyon project progressing, appraisal well help mature project concepts. Maintain SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a A$0.56 target price.
2Q26 update: US growth remains elusive
ImpediMed
January 29, 2026
IPD posted its 2Q26 result which noted that its US installed base growth remains elusive with constraints around hospital budgets being called out as still an issue. We have taken a knife to our short-term forecasts which were too optimistic. As a result, our DCF-based valuation has reduced to A$0.10 (was A$0.13). We maintain a SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation, however, recognise that cash reserves are becoming tight and subsequent quarters will need to see the pipeline converted and cost controls maintained.
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