Research notes

STO posted a largely in line 4Q25 production and revenue result, although updates on its two key growth projects did flag some incremental negatives. Barossa ramp-up is dealing with an expected ~2-month delay vs planned. Pikka Phase 1 saw a ~US$200m upgrade in capex budget on a combination of cost pressures. Hiccups aside STO has done a good job executing, with Barossa and Pikka startups set to help the cash flow equation. Trading closed at a modest discount to our A$6.60 Target Price and we maintain our Hold rating.

GDG’s 2Q26 quarterly update saw a record Investment Bond (IB) sales performance, which appeared much better than market expectations, although Evidentia FUM came in 2% below Visible Alpha consensus. In our view, the IB performance made this a positive quarterly result overall, albeit the market clearly wants to see Evidentia FUM growth gain traction. We lift our GDG FY26F/FY27F EPS by 1%-2% with increases in our IB sales and FUM growth targets offsetting slight downgrades to our Evidentia FUM growth levels. Our GDG valuation is largely unchanged at A$7.97 (from A$7.95). We think GDG has a great story, and management has executed well over time. With the stock trading at a >20% discount to our target price, we maintain our Buy recommendation.

2Q26 was a modest beat at a group level operationally. Supported by strong alumina and silver output. FY26 guidance on operated assets unchanged, Brazil Aluminium under review. We have applied updated house precious metal forecasts to our estimates. Post-Illawarra divestment, S32 is ~90% base metal producer with limited execution risk (ex-Hermosa) and enjoying a healthy (and material) upgrade cycle from copper, aluminium and silver prices. Positioned to benefit from the upcycle, we maintain our BUY rating with a A$5.00 Target Price (was A$4.30).

2Q26 reflected temporary disruptions at Motheo, with production now clearly 2H weighted (46:54) supporting a stronger 2H26 outlook. 1H26 underlying EBITDA to be US$304m (+11% qoq) and SFR finished 1H26 in a net cash position of US$13m. Maintain HOLD with a A$18.90ps target price (previously A$17.50ps).

Strong 2Q26 with gold production and costs beating expectations. EVN generated record cash flow again. We expect EVN to reach net cash by the end of FY26. We maintain our TRIM rating as we view the stock as fully valued. However, we see merit in retaining some exposure given EVN’s significant leverage to gold and copper prices, which are currently at record levels.

Record 4Q Pilbara production and shipments enabled RIO to land at the lower end of CY25 guidance, recovering from cyclone disruptions back in 1Q. Copper beat estimates by 14% on Escondida and Oyu Tolgoi strength. Simandou achieved first shipment in December as guided. Making hay while the sun shines, with copper and iron ore beats, but a quarter that will be hard to repeat with Pilbara shipments to normalise and Escondida grades set to moderate in CY26. Valuation remains stretched at current levels. We maintain our TRIM rating with target price unchanged at A$140.

HUB’s 2Q26 Platform net-flows of $5.6bn were the group’s largest on record, coming in ahead of consensus expectations of $4.6bn. On an underlying basis (excluding $1.5bn of flows from the EQT migration in 2Q25), core net inflows were up +42% yoy. This strong organic momentum was also supported by positive mark-to-markets during the quarter which saw HUB report Total FUA of $152.3bn, +26% yoy, and Platform FUA of ~A$127.9bn, +29% yoy. We see the company as well positioned to deliver strong growth at its upcoming 1H26 result and on track to reach its FY27 Platform FUA targets. We upgrade our underlying NPAT forecasts by 1-2% and retain our Hold rating with an unchanged $110.60 price target.

CYL delivered a solid operating result for 1Q driven by record production of 28.2koz Au and 24.8koz Au in sales from the Plutonic Gold Belt. FY26 guidance of 100-110koz Au at an AISC of A$2,200/oz - A$2,650/oz was reiterated. We now forecast FY26 sales of 109koz at an AISC of A$2,539/oz and update our price deck to align with recent spot gold movements. We update our model for the result, reiterate our BUY rating and increase our price target to A$12.51ps (previously A$10.58ps).

A sound 2Q26 result operationally, with WAIO setting a H1 production record and BHP upgrading guidance at both Escondida and Antamina. The offsetting negative was the separate update on the Jansen Stage 1 potash project, seeing a further budget upgrade to US$8.4bn and leaving concern around possible changes to Jansen Stage 2. We have applied upgraded metal price forecasts, driving the upgrade in our target price but not transforming the value proposition, with BHP still appearing fair value. In our sector investment strategy we view BHP as a core holding on earnings and portfolio quality grounds as well as dividend profile, we maintain our Hold rating.

1H26 underlying PBT of A$58m (~16% below pcp; ~14% below cons) reflected softer group sales and margin pressure (AUD/THB weakness and lower factory recoveries), with a pronounced 2Q deterioration (group sales -5.8%). All divisions weakened through the period, with implied Aftermarket sales -4.4% in 2Q26 (vs -1.7% in 2Q25); OEM -43% (vs -2%); and Export flat (vs +20.4%). The softness within the Aftermarket division is somewhat understandable, given the sharp deterioration in our tracked ARB new vehicle sales index through November (-14.8%) and December (-6.8%), dragging 2Q FY26 volumes 6.7% lower vs the pcp. However, the slowing rate of growth within Export is a point of concern (flat in 2Q) as ARB will cycle a more demanding comp in 2H FY26 (2H FY25 A$142m; vs A$125.4m 1H26). We expect FY26 earnings will reflect a 'base' year for ARB to reset margins and resume a more sustainable growth trajectory (MorgansF FY25-28F EPS CAGR +7%). We are encouraged by ongoing US strength (1H26 +26%); a commanding balance sheet position (A$59.4m net cash); and various tailwinds supporting Aftermarket division recovery through CY26 (new OEM launches; network growth/upgrades; and eCommerce launch). Accumulate maintained.