Research notes

We recently attended a site visit to TSO’s El Zorro Gold Project in Chile – the host to the 2Moz Au Ternera Gold Deposit. The trip included a tour of proximal existing power and water infrastructure (with which TSO has existing MOUs), Ternera and greater El Zorro concession. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating and price target of A$4.88ps.

We update our FY26 half-year earnings splits ahead of CWY’s 1H26 result on 26 February. 12 month target price unchanged at $3.11/sh. Valuation upside is evident from the takeover bid for QUB that implies a takeover value for CWY of c.$4/sh. Given CWY’s recent share price weakness we upgrade from ACCUMULATE to BUY, with total potential return of c.25% at current prices.

EQ Resources produced 38,292 metric tonne units (mtu) of tungsten for the December 2025 Quarter. Our expectation is that ~32,000-33,000mtu was from Barruecopardo, and the balance from the underperforming Mt Carbine mine. The ammonium paratungstate (APT) price averaged above US$700/mtu through the December Quarter, and is currently above US$1,000/mtu. We have lifted our long-term price from US$350/mtu to US$600/mtu. The Mt Carbine open pit has underperformed since production of 26,028mtu in the September 2024 Quarter, with mine production stalled for remediation and redevelopment of the Andy White open pit, and the Wet Season effects.

We formally transfer coverage in this research note. Whilst our investment thesis and ACCUMULATE recommendation remain unchanged, we take the opportunity to revisit key topics that are important to the investment thesis.

Following AMC’s recent 5:1 share consolidation, we update our per share estimates (EPS and DPS) to reflect the new share count. Our underlying earnings forecasts change marginally (between 0-1%), largely reflecting updates to FX assumptions. Our target price increases to $76.00 (from $15.20 previously) following the share consolidation. With a 12-month forecast TSR of 21%, we maintain our BUY rating. Following AMC’s solid 1Q26 result, management’s increased confidence in delivering FY26 synergy targets, and the reaffirmation of FY26 guidance, we believe the outlook remains positive. Trading on 10x FY27F PE with a 5.8% yield, we continue to view the valuation as attractive. AMC is due to report its 1H26 result in early February.

TLX is an oncology company that operates in the radiopharmaceutical industry. Their portfolio consists of an extensive pipeline of in-licensed, acquired and Company-originated IP that focuses on“molecularly targeted radiation” (MTR) for kidney, prostate and brain cancer products. TLX operate two divisions: precision medicine (diagnostics with an estimated TAM of US$9bn) and therapeutics (with an estimated TAM of US$23bn). The precision medicine division is guided to generate revenue of US$800m to US$850m for FY25 with products in the therapeutic division still in clinical trials. Consensus has a target price of A$26.37 which provides significant upside to the current share price. Management expects several significant catalysts in 2026.

In our view, NWH has scope to re-rate to 11x FY26/27 EBIT in the near term. The company’s relative valuation has lagged the sector following a challenging FY25, marked by cash collection issues, an unexpected CFO transition, material weather disruptions in QLD, and a weak met coal market. With the exception of weather – which remains inherently difficult to forecast – these issues are in the rear-view mirror. We expect a strong 1H26, with demand indicators suggesting that earnings momentum will extend into 2H26. Our FY26 EBITA forecast has been upgraded to near the top of the guidance range of $260-265m, which translates to +26% EPS growth. We view guidance as conservative, though we remain within the range given weather risk in 2H. We lift our price target to $6.00 (from $4.50) and maintain our Accumulate recommendation.

Following the agreement to acquire Tyco NZ and Red Wolf on 12/12 (Hungry Caterpillar), IMB raised $20m on 16/12/25 at $0.58/share via an institutional placement to return leverage back to pre-acquisition levels (1.6x net debt/pro forma EBITDA). We incorporate the equity raise, though our price target is unchanged ($1.00) as a re-rating in peer multiples offsets the dilution.

RPL continues to demonstrate its ability to generate performance fees through equity market cycles, with 2HCY25 performance fees of $130m being c.3x times the performance fee booked in 1HCY25. Increased confidence in the recurring nature of the performance fees has seen us increase our expectations over the forecast period, to be within the target range of 40-60 bps of FUM. Despite a solid upgrade to our CY25 earnings forecasts, the valuation impact is relatively muted, a result of the modest earnings multiple applied to average ‘through the cycle’ performance fees. On this basis we retain our BUY rating, increasing our target price to $4.25/sh (previously $4.00/sh).

EDV’s Retail segment delivered an improved sales performance in 2Q26 (+1.8%) following a decline in 1Q26 (-1.4%). However, this growth was driven by sharper pricing and increased promotions, with 1H26 margins expected to be materially lower than the pcp. With the retail liquor market remaining subdued, management said the changes to its pricing strategy were aimed at reinforcing the group’s customer value proposition (underpinned by Dan Murphy’s lowest liquor price guarantee), reignite top-line growth, and respond to an increasingly competitive landscape, particularly online. Management has guided to 1H26 group EBIT of between $555-566m. At the mid-point, this was 5% below both our previous forecast and Visible Alpha consensus. We adjust FY26/27/28 group EBIT forecasts by -5%/-6%/-6%. Our target price remains unchanged at $3.70, with downgrades to earnings forecasts offset by a roll-forward of our model to FY27 forecasts. HOLD rating maintained.