Research notes

4Q25 delivered a clear step-up in commercial execution, with case volumes doubling q/q and revenue materially ahead of expectations, confirming accelerating physician uptake during the Limited Market Release (LMR). Preliminary 4Q revenue of US$0.87-0.94m exceeded our estimate by c60%, with FY25 revenue of US$1.55-1.62m validating early pricing and demand assumptions. We view clinical momentum with the WiSE-UP post-approval study and the TLC-AU feasibility study as supporting longer-term adoption and label expansion. Updated TAM of US$5.8bn (+60%) highlights a materially larger opportunity, underpinned by growth in leadless pacing and de novo CRT applications. We adjusted CY25-27 forecasts, with our DCF-based valuation increasing to A$2.95. BUY.

We initiate coverage of BMC Minerals with a SPECULATIVE BUY rating and a target price of A$4.90ps. The Kudz Ze Kayah (KZK) project is a high grade undeveloped polymetallic deposit, with high silver equivalent reserve grades of 597g/t AgEq and an indicative ~32Moz Ag per annum production profile. Indicative economics of KZK are solid. We model steady state average annual financials of US$780m revenue, US$435m EBITDA at a 52% EBITDA margin, US$287m FCF and FCF yields of 29% based on precious and base metals price assumptions well below current spot prices. With BMC, we see parallels to past prolific polymetallic/base metals assets which generated strong returns for shareholders: Vares for Adriatic, Nova-Bollinger for Sirius and De Grussa for Sandfire.

The recent share price pullback has provided an opportunity to move our recommendation to HOLD (from TRIM), now offering ~6% TSR to our unchanged target price. Refurbished stores to date have performed above our expectations and management’s target range (15-25%). Up to October, the 3 refurbished stores have seen sales up 30% on the pcp. BBN has now completed 9 refurbishments, and we expect BBN to provide an update on performance at the 1H26 result. We see the risk/ reward now more balanced, and 14x FY27 PE as a fair valuation. We have made no changes to our forecasts or valuation. We have a $2.70 price target.

We update our model in advance of ALX’s FY25 result due to be released on 26 February. Adjustments include: (A) inclusion of 3Q25 traffic/revenue data (Q4 data due to be released on 29 January) and recalibration of APRR traffic forecast model; (B) update to 2026 APRR toll escalation in advance of the official notification (typically in late-Jan/early-Feb) by reflecting France October 2025 CPI (+0.9% YoY, being lower than assumed) as per the toll escalation formula; (C) adjustment to APRR 2025 tax payable calculation; (D) inclusion of Chicago Skyway 2025 bond issue (higher cost than previously assumed on FY26 cost); (E) lower 2027 Dulles Greenway toll increase than previously assumed reflecting the filing announced in December 2025 (which is lower than the CPI catch-up since the last toll increase in 2021); and (F) update for (higher) spot AUDEUR and AUDUSD since our last report. The assumption adjustments result in earnings downgrades for APRR, FY25-26 upgrades for Dulles Greenway (but long term downgrades), and mild upgrades for the Chicago Skyway. Forecast of ALX free cashflow and cash reserves is downgraded (but we still see ALX as capable of sustaining the current DPS of 40 cps until at least the end of the decade). DCF-based business-as-usual valuation of ALX reduces 30 cps to $4.43/sh, due to the forecast changes. 12 month target price (which includes a mild premium for potential takeover activity) declines 31 cps to $4.74/sh.

VBX continue to advance the 95.9Mt Wuudagu bauxite project with recent drilling at Wuudagu D, E and F confirming each to be an additional discovery which may materially contribute to future resource growth. With three additional discoveries confirmed, we see scope for an additional 35-55Mt in potential volume, before applying grade parameters. We are encouraged by average in-situ Al2O3 grades of ~40% across the reported drill datasets which may beneficiate in the same manner as the existing reserve. DFS workstreams supporting the 2026 update are progressing well in parallel with the field season. We expect the DFS to support future off take and financing arrangements. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating, price target A$2.10ps (previously A$1.60ps). Uplift a function of revised risk weighting (75%, previously 80%) following technical de-risking and exploration success.

We update our TSO model, adjusting for the recently implemented 15:1 share consolidation. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating and price target of A$4.88ps. TSO remains inexpensive, trading at A$96/oz vs. a peer group average of A$220/oz, accompanied by quantum changing exploration potential.

MX1 has raised A$6.2m, taking the funding question off the table. One of MX1’s major shareholders has provided ~50% of the funding. The funds will be used for working capital to assist the growing sales pipeline for the Rover Plus and help fund the head CT clinical trial. We have included the capital raise into our model which results in a minor dilution moving our valuation to A$0.16 (from $0.17). We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation.

CHN released a Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) for the Gonneville Pd-Ni-Cu project. The PFS was broadly in line with MorgansF, with key beats to Stage 1 capex (-9%) and palladium payabilities (+7%). Macro tailwinds are turning supportive: the EU is moving to soften its 2035 ICE ban (supportive for hybrids/Pd demand) while the already small ~9Mozpa palladium market is tightening, running an estimated ~0.2Moz deficit even before any meaningful industrial demand uplift. We reiterate our SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a A$4.50ps target price (previously A$2.90ps), a function of a refreshed spot scenario following a +122% increase in Pd prices over the past eight months and PFS input updates.

NST has revised FY26 guidance lower after another soft sales quarter, cutting the midpoint ~8% to 1,650koz (from 1,775koz). The downgrade reflects ongoing operational challenges across all hubs, including grade, throughput and utilisation constraints. This marks the second guidance miss in as many years. While we remain constructive on NST’s long-term growth pathway, we are adopting a more cautious (previously bullish) short-to-midterm production outlook, maintained until delivery consistency improves. We now forecast FY26 sales of 1,589koz (-9%), marginally below updated guidance (1,600–1,700koz). We lift our AISC to A$2,770/oz, reducing forecast EBITDA and EPS by 16% and 22% respectively. Rating revised to HOLD, price target A$26.00ps (previously A$27.41ps). The downgrade partly offset by our higher spot scenario of US$3,500/oz (from US$3,250/oz).

EMV has raised capital to advance to major milestones including clinical trial completion (emuTM) and regulatory submission (emuTM). Funds will also support the clinical program for the First Responder device. EMV has been successful in securing additional grant funding to understand the clinical benefits in real-world applications. EMV is an emerging healthcare play with meaningful catalysts over the next six to 12 months.