Research notes

Tabcorp Holdings (TAH) reported a very strong 1H26 result, with resilient turnover, improved margins and disciplined cost control driving double-digit EBITDA growth despite a softer wagering yield environment through the Spring Carnival and Footy Finals period. New and exclusive products resonated well, particularly with younger cohorts, with digital turnover among 18-24 year olds up +14%. Following the result, our EPS estimates increase +9%/+12% across FY26-27F, reflecting stronger Wagering & Media margins and sustained operating leverage. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation, while our target price increases to $1.20 (previously $1.07).

FLT’s 1H26 NBPT was up 4.1%, a beat on guidance for a flat result. The Corporate result was the highlight with NPBT was up 20%, while Leisure was better than feared down only 4%. The 3Q26 is off to a strong start and importantly Leisure is back in growth. FY26 guidance was reiterated. We have made minor upgrades to our forecasts. FLT’s fundamentals remain attractive (FY27 PE of 10.6x) and we retain a Buy recommendation with a new A$18.05 price target.

Amplitude’s 1H26 result was a clean beat across all key metrics, however Elanora being dry has lifted the importance of Isabella as a key near-term catalyst. EBITDAX beat MorgansF and VA estimates by 5%, with a larger NPAT beat. While the ECSP+ program is a critical set of catalysts, we see the share price reaction to Elanora as overdone. Maintain BUY rating with a A$3.50 target price.

ACF’s 1H26 result overall was slightly weaker than expected. While the Industrial Access segment delivered a strong result, Construction Services was impacted by ongoing soft trading conditions in QLD. We adjust FY26/27/28F underlying EBITDA by -3%/-6%-4%. Our target price decreases slightly to $1.28 (from $1.29), with reductions to earnings forecasts largely offset by a roll-forward of our valuation to FY27 estimates. While short-term softness in formwork activity will weigh on near-term earnings, management noted strong signs of increased activity in QLD in 4Q26, which should provide momentum heading into FY27. With Brisbane Olympics-related activity to also ramp up over the next 12-18 months, we continue to view ACF’s outlook as strong. Trading on 10.2x FY27F PE with a 5.1% yield, we believe ACF’s valuation remains attractive and maintain our BUY rating.

As expected GLF modestly beat on their FY25 earnings result. The business reported underlying NPAT of $90.0m coming in modestly above our forecast and consensus. The FY26 outlook was better than expected with management guiding to underlying EPS of 28.5 – 30.0cps. We position our forecasts at the upper end of management’s guidance. We retain our ACCUMULATE recommendation.

WOW’s 1H26 result overall was above expectations, with productivity and cost efficiencies a key highlight as all divisions delivered improved margins. Management said competition remains elevated and customers continue to be value-focused. While there were tentative signs of improving customer sentiment toward the end of CY25, persistent inflation and rising interest rates have led customers to revert to finding ways to save. We increase FY26-28F underlying EBIT by between 0-3%. While 1H26 performance was solid, we would prefer to see further evidence of consistent execution before moving to a more positive view on the stock. We therefore maintain our HOLD rating. Our target price increases to $37.30 (from $28.25) following a roll-forward to FY27 estimates and a higher valuation multiple of 25.5x (from 22x previously), reflecting improved execution and stronger sales momentum across all segments.

SDR’s 1H26 result was largely per expectations at the revenue line (A$131m, +23% on the pcp on a constant currency basis), however marginally below at EBITDA. Growth in transaction revenue and the mix shift towards the higher margin Smart Platform offering saw the group gross margin expand ~98bps to 67.8%. Key business metrics remain robust (e.g LTV/CAC of 6.7x, ARR and Rule of 40 growth). We undertake a broad review of our assumptions in this update (details below). Our price target is lowered to A$7.00 (from A$8.10) as a result. However, given the significant discount of the current share price versus our valuation we upgrade to a BUY recommendation.

1H26 marks a clear strategic reset for DMP, with management prioritising a more profitable operating model over near-term volume. SSS was hard to digest, below expectations, but the balance of new information was encouraging, underpinned by a 4.5% lift in franchisee profitability and further cost-out opportunities. We believe early actions from the new leadership team are directionally sound, although this is a multi-year turnaround and proof of execution is still required. Returning economics to franchisees is a prerequisite for improved sales momentum and store roll-outs, meaning shareholders may need to be patient, but the prize is there if the strategy is delivered. BUY maintained with an unchanged target price of $25.00.

1H26 comprised EBITDA +22%; EBITDA margins +80bps yoy; and ongoing recovery of the core Collision business (sales +10%; EBITDA +A$8.1m). Whilst 2Q was slightly softer than expected (broadly flat yoy), the group continues to make good progress on its recovery with a seasonally stronger 2H ahead. We see a good growth profile as the business continues its recovery, with a FY25-28F EBITDA CAGR of >15% and further upside potential through network optimisation and margin outperformance. Upgrade to BUY (from Accumulate).

AX1 reported 1H26 EBIT which was down 30% yoy to $56.5m, in line with the revised guidance range provided in November ($55-60m). The decline was driven by soft comp sales and significant operating de-leverage from lower gross margins. AX1 has made the unsurprising decision to cease operations of loss-making Glue store, which contributed $8.4m EBIT loss in 1H26. On an underlying basis, EBIT fell 10%. We see this providing incremental benefit on group earnings in FY27. We have increased our EBIT by 1.5% in FY26 and by 11% in FY27. Our blended valuation lifts to $1.30 (from $1.10). We have upgraded to a BUY (from HOLD). We see significant earnings growth in FY27, driven by underlying FY26 run-rate (ex-Glue), this makes the stock look inexpensive at ~10x FY27 P/E and ~5.6% yield.