Research notes

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Research Notes

Beating on execution, not a housing recovery

James Hardie Industries
3:27pm
August 9, 2026
JHX is performing well against what remains a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. The legacy JHX division was the callout, growing organic net sales by c.20% as both price and volumes outperformed. AZEK saw a softer quarter as sales declined 5%, a trend which is expected to reverse in 2Q27. FY27 guidance was largely in line with expectations, as a strong 2Q27 guide leaves scope to accommodate a weaker market through 2H27. We retain our HOLD rating, with a A$45/sh price target.

FY26: Growth now top priority

Beach Energy
3:27pm
August 8, 2026
A noisy FY26 result but still a healthy level of earnings, while FY27 guidance pointed to lower production, higher D&A and higher capex versus pre-result consensus. A new capital management framework, ranking growth amongst its highest priorities was revealed, while uncertainty remains around what will be acquired. BPT is a good business, and is enjoying higher output from Waitsia as it ramps up, but undersized oil & gas reserves reduces our view on valuation and risk. We maintain a SELL rating with A$0.82 target price (was A$0.81).

2Q26: Execution now becomes the catalyst

NexGen Energy
3:27pm
August 7, 2026
Construction has started. Capex estimates to be largely unchanged from 2024 estimates. Rook I entered construction on 8 June. Development spending is rising (C$30.7m in 2Q26 vs C$23.9m in 1Q26), and the company expects no material revisions to the capital cost estimate from August 2024. A near-term dilution overhang is approaching. From 22 September 2026, NXG can call their 2023 debentures and has signaled expectations of conversion to equity rather than repayment. That's up to 16.3m new shares on issue. We move to an ACCUMULATE rating (previously BUY) due to material valuation updates with a reduced price target of A$15.60ps (previously A$20.80ps).

International Spotlight

Space Exploration Technologies
3:27pm
August 7, 2026

FY26 result: Distributions trending lower

Centuria Office REIT
3:27pm
August 6, 2026
Centuria Office REIT (COF) delivered a broadly in-line FY26 result. FFO of 11.2cpu and distributions of 10.1cpu were both delivered in line with guidance, with the more relevant detail in the FY27 outlook. FFO guidance of 11.3cpu marks the first year of growth since FY22, while distributions have been reset to 9.0cpu, below market expectations in what management describes as a through-cycle setting. The balance sheet remains the constraint with gearing at 43.7%. Encouragingly, leasing volumes were among the strongest in COF's history although this has yet to translate into occupancy, which was largely unchanged. COF trades at a c.46% discount to NTA and a 67% discount to replacement value, although the catalysts to close that gap remain limited in our view. We retain our Trim with a $0.88/sh price target (previously A$0.80), reflecting our revised earnings forecasts.

Volume/mix uncertainty but cost discipline pleases

REA Group
3:27pm
August 6, 2026
REA’s FY26 result continued to highlight the resilience of the franchise, particularly its ability to maintain double-digit yield growth (+13%) in its core Australia business. The result was broadly in line with our expectations. On a core operations basis it delivered ~7% topline growth and EBITDA (pre associate losses) growth of ~12%. Cost discipline was a key highlight in our view, with open jaws for the full year. Our FY27-FY29F EPS is increased by 1-3.5%. Our DCF-derived price target increases to A$203 (from A$199). BUY recommendation maintained.

International Spotlight

Amazon.com
3:27pm
August 6, 2026
Amazon.com, Inc. engages in the retail sale of consumer products and subscriptions through online and physical stores in North America and internationally. The company’s product offering through its stores includes merchandise and content purchased for resale, and products offered by third-party sellers. It also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, Fire tablets, Fire TVs, Rings, Blink, eero, and Echo, and develops and produces media content.

International Spotlight

Flutter Entertainment
3:27pm
August 6, 2026
Flutter Entertainment plc is a global sports betting and gaming company headquartered in Dublin, Ireland. Its offerings span online and retail sports betting, online poker, casino games and daily fantasy sports. The company operates through several key brands including Betfair, Paddy Power, Sky Bet, Sportsbet and FanDuel, catering to customers across Europe, Australia and North America.

International Spotlight

Microsoft Corporation
3:27pm
August 6, 2026
Microsoft is an American multinational technology company that develops and markets software, services and hardware. The company is best known for its software products, including Microsoft Windows operating systems, the Microsoft Office suite and the Internet Explorer web browser. Its five main operating segments include: Windows & Windows Live Division, Server and Tools, Online Services Division, Microsoft Business Division, and Entertainment and Devices Division.

International Spotlight

Linde PLC
3:27pm
August 6, 2026
Linde Plc is a global industrial gases and engineering company. It designs and builds equipment that produces industrial gases. The company also offers gas production and processing services such as olefin plants, natural gas plants, air separation plants, hydrogen and synthesis gas plants and other types of plants. Its primary products are atmospheric gases and process gases.

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