Research notes

NGI has acquired Georgian, a Toronto-based AI-focused growth equity firm. This deal appears to be a strategic fit for NGI, meeting its flagged acquisition criteria and being earnings accretive. We forecast NGI FY26F/FY27F/FY28F EPS to increase by ~1%-3% following the transaction. However, our target price reduces to A$2.98 (from A$3.35), reflecting a meaningful contraction in global peer trading multiples and our application of a more conservative valuation multiple to NGI (12.5x PE versus 15x previously). NGI's recent sell-off appears to be mainly tied to Private Credit concerns around its key strategic partner Blue Owl. We think NGI's fundamentals are largely unchanged, and current market volatility is arguably conducive to its stable of alternative asset fund managers. We rate NGI a Buy.

Global Business Travel Group (AMEX GBT) is the world’s leading B2B travel platform, providing software and services to manage travel, expenses, and meetings and events for companies of all sizes. It operates in more than 140 countries.

Amplitude’s share price suffered a brutal selloff after announcing it was now 0-for-2 in its ECSP exploration program. Isabella well flowed gas to surface but failed to maintain pressure and flow, disappointing given Isabella was the largest resource target in the program. The balance sheet and A$100m H1 EBITDAX buy time, but with two wells left and FID deferred, the next spud is effectively a must-win for the growth thesis. We retain our BUY rating with a revised A$3.00 target price, but the risk equation has shifted. Priced as an ex-growth cash cow, but still sensitive to well results.

CY25 marked a pivotal transition to commercialisation, with first US implants and strong early momentum continuing into CY26, supported by favourable reimbursement and growing physician engagement. Early KPIs remain encouraging, with implant volumes accelerating (18 in 4Q; 25 in Jan–Feb CY26), 28 hospital agreements signed, and 46 physicians trained, indicating a solid foundation for scale. Salesforce capacity and reimbursement complexity, not demand, act as governors, with strong patient pipelines and high physician enthusiasm. With cash of cUS$54m, B/S is a near-term focus, placing increased importance on execution through CY26 to support future funding at improved terms. We adjusted CY26-28 forecasts, with our DCF-based valuation decreasing to A$2.47. BUY.

TCG released an MRE upgrade for the Afema Gold Project lifting the resource base to 4.65Moz Au at 1.3g/t Au (up from 4Moz)– a beat on our forecasts of 4.5Moz Au at 1.1g/t Au. Afema now ranks as one of the largest undeveloped gold resources on the ASX. We maintain our existing forecasts and reiterate our BUY rating, price target A$2.19ps.

We initiate coverage on 29Metals (29M) with a 12-month target price of A$0.54ps and a BUY recommendation. We expect the Xantho Extended restart and Gossan Valley development at Golden Grove to restore grades and operating flexibility, while a potential Capricorn Copper restart provides medium-term production growth. Following its recent equity raise, 29M is better positioned to execute its plans, with upside potential supported by a constructive long-term copper outlook.

AIH has announced the completion of its acquisition of Imenco. We have incorporated the transaction into our forecasts, with the deal expected to be low-to-mid single digit EPS accretive. However, we use this update to also reflect forecast FX headwinds (GBP/AUD), which we expect to more than offset the accretion from the acquisition. Our forecasts for the base business are unchanged excluding the impacts from FX, and we continue to assume constant FX in outer years. Overall, we reduce our EBITDA forecasts by 1% annually across FY26-28 and NPAT by 3-4% over the same period. Target price reduces modestly to $1.45.

MEK announced an expansion to 800ktpa (equivalent ounce basis) via ore sorting, requiring modest capex of A$6m with commissioning scheduled for Q1FY27. Ore sorting effectively near doubles Andy Well underground head grade, lifting our annual production forecasts by an average of 7% from FY27 onwards. Open Pit throughput has tracked below DFS forecasts due to moisture-driven variability in open pit ore, an issue expected to resolve with underground stope commencement in 4QFY26. We revise our FY26 production forecast to 37.6koz Au (from 40.2koz), this is below the DFS guidance. We maintain our BUY rating and A$0.39ps price target, acknowledging near-term production softness may weigh on the 3Q result ahead of an anticipated step-change in output in 4Q.