Research notes

Following the acquisition of all issued capital by Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited, we discontinue coverage of Brickworks (BKW). Our forecasts, target price and recommendation should no longer be relied upon for investment decisions.

In this note we look at MAF’s emerging MA Money (MAM) business. Whilst this business is still somewhat in its infancy, we think strong progress has been made building out the franchise thus far, punctuated by rapid loan growth and MAM now being profitable. Further, we see FY26 MAM financial targets as readily achievable, with potential for significant further growth (noting MQG has shown the pathway for challengers to grow in the large Australian mortgage market). We make nominal changes to our FY26/FY27 EPS forecasts of +1%-+2%. Our price target increases to A$10.63 (from A$10.23) on our earnings changes. With strong operating momentum and >10% TSR upside on a 12-month view, we maintain our ACCUMULATE recommendation.

Pantoro Gold (ASX.PNR) is an ASX-300 listed gold miner operating the 4.7Moz Au Norseman Gold Project in Western Australia currently producing at an annualised run-rate of +100kozpa. Norseman is a historical high-grade mining centre, having produced over 5.5Moz of gold since 1935. We see strong high-grade potential and meaningful resource growth ahead. We model production to rise by ~40kozpa (to 145kozpa) by FY28, with scope for further gains contingent on grade uplift. Current commodity prices and immediate Resource/Reserve upside should drive solid earnings and production growth and are complemented by >50% EBITDA margin in our base case. We initiate coverage with a HOLD rating and price target of A$5.33ps.

The ADNOC-led consortium has announced it was walking away from its takeover proposal for Santos, failing to find the conviction to make a binding offer. We expect selling pressure on Santos’ share price from arbitrage investors, with the view of corporate appeal likely impaired. Market focus will now return to fundamentals, and delivery of Barossa and Pikka. We downgrade our rating to TRIM (from ACCUMULATE) with a A$7.20 target price (was A$8.65).

The FY25 result reaffirmed WHC’s current focus on stable and repeatable execution, helped by ongoing optimisation and cost reductions, and evident in similar production and reduced FOB cost guidance for FY26. We think current capital preservation efforts, and a strong balance sheet ensure that WHC will ride out the coal pricing downturn to play into the next coal price upswing, unlocking upside cashflow returns once again. We show that WHC’s share price infers the market is pricing in little to no upside in coal pricing, despite prices being below levels we think are sustainable. We rate WHC a BUY with a target price of A$8.10ps and see the stock as a compelling opportunity for patient investors.

We upgrade DBI to ACCUMULATE from HOLD given recent share price weakness (albeit has bounced off the share price low) upon the exit of its major shareholder. Forecasts unchanged. 12-month target price remains $4.73/sh. We don’t view the fundamentals of the business and asset as having changed with Brookfield’s exit. At current prices, we estimate DBI may deliver a 12-month potential return of c.16% (including 5.7% cash yield). We view this as attractive given DBI’s low risk profile.

Tungsten is a strategic metal for advanced industrial and military applications, with China providing over 85% of world supply. Restrictions imposed by China and a move amongst Western users to ensure security of supply has resulted in a +50% rise in the ammonium paratungstate (APT) price. EQ Resources is the largest non-Chinese producer of tungsten, with annual capacity above 240,000 metric tonne units (mtu) of tungsten in concentrate from Barruecopardo, Spain, and Mt Carbine, Queensland. Both mines have the resource base to support the doubling of current output, with upgrades in progress to the process plant in Spain. The Barruecopardo mine (EQR 100%), Spain, is operating in line with expectations, with upgrades to the process plant expected to deliver production growth in this current year. The process plant at Mt Carbine (EQR 100%), Queensland, is operating in line with expectations. Open pit mining has yet to achieve projected levels. With strengthened site management and a move from contract mining our expectation is that mining rates will lift at Mt Carbine.

We make adjustments to our forecasts to reflect the penalties and remediation spend announced today related to ASIC and APRA matters. Our 12 month target price declines -2% to $28.72/sh. We retain a TRIM rating, with 12 month potential TSR of -8%. We expect 2H25 DPS to be dented by 15 cps due to the one-off items announced thus far this month.

SharkNinja (SN.NYS) is a US based, global consumer appliance company. The company operates two core and high-quality brands: 1) Shark – home care and cleaning products (vacuums/steam mops); and 2) Ninja – kitchen appliances (blenders/air fryers/food processors).

TSO released an updated scoping study for its flagship low-altitude, 1.8Moz Au Ternera Gold Project, in Chile. The study outlines outstanding uplifts to indicative economics, annual production profile, process capacity and mine life. All reported headline metrics are ahead of our previous forecasts – materially increasing our valuation and confidence that Ternera represents a particularly compelling risk/reward profile. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating with a revised target price of A$0.21ps (from A$0.15ps). Importantly, the 40% uplift in valuation comes despite applying a more conservative 50% risk weighting (previously 20%), underscoring the material upside that remains beyond current levels.