Research notes

EchoIQ’s (EIQ) EchoSolv platform is the world’s first FDA-cleared AI cardiac decision-support tool, institutionally validated at Beth Israel Deaconess (BIDMC/Harvard) and the Mayo Clinic, and trained on the world’s largest echocardiogram dataset (NEDA), creating a genuine clinical and data moat. A recently secured commercial sales agreement with the Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research (Mayo) (effective post-FDA clearance) positions EchoSolv HF for rapid deployment across Mayo Clinic hospitals and health system (19 sites) and 80+ hospitals in the network. We view this as a significant marker for clinical, regulatory, and commercial validation ahead of approval. We expect a positive outcome from the EchoSolv HF FDA 510(k), due imminently, which unlocks the large, structurally undiagnosed US cardiac market. Combined with attractive unit economics and clear patient and hospital benefits, we see a high probability of rapid US adoption and monetisation. We initiate coverage with a Speculative Buy rating and A$1.30 price target with potential upside to A$1.68 on approval/reimbursement, underpinned by near-term FDA clearance, reimbursement progression, and a credible pathway to US commercial scaling.

Gold production met expectations despite weather and maintenance impacts, with weaker copper and higher AISC driven by Ernest Henry disruptions. Strong 4Q26 expected to achieve FY26 guidance. Achieves net cash position with an updated capital management policy expected at its FY26 result in August. We upgrade to an ACCUMULATE (from HOLD) following recent weakness across the gold sector which we believe has uncovered value in a high-quality name, despite a strong share price reaction post the result.

Pleasingly, NUF’s 1H26 EBITDA guidance was slightly higher than expected and it has had a strong 1H. Importantly, its leverage guidance is materially better than expected. Initial outlook comments for the 2H26 were positive and a new A$50m cost out program has been announced. Given the appreciation in active ingredient and fish oil prices, NUF’s previous FY26 guidance could prove to be conservative. NUF is our key pick of the ag and chemical sector. The company is materially undervalued and we reiterate our BUY rating with a new price target of A$4.05.

Roche Holding AG is a Swiss multinational healthcare company that operates worldwide under two divisions: Pharmaceuticals and Diagnostics. Roche Pharma is focused on finding new medicines and diagnostics that help patients and evolve the practice of medicine. It treats ~28m people with its medicines and has 32 products on the WHO list of essential medicines. Roche Diagnostics develops diagnostics tests, instruments and digital solutions. This enables the collection of data, generating accurate and high-quality information that is used to inform clinical diseases around infections.

Pfizer is a research based pharmaceutical company that focuses on drug discovery for human diseases. It has a global portfolio including medicines and vaccines, as well as many other health care products. Its top 10 medicines and vaccines include: Comirnaty, Paxlovid, Eliquis, Prevnar, Ibrance, Vyndaqel, Xeljanz, Xtandi, Enbrel and Inlyta. The company collaborates with health care providers, governments and local communities to support and expand access to reliable, affordable health care around the world. It has key franchises in cardiovascular, infectious diseases, inflammatory conditions and vaccines.

Novo Nordisk is a Danish multinational pharmaceutical company providing innovative treatment for five chronic diseases. Its products treat type 1 and 2 diabetes, obesity, haemophilia and growth disorders. It is most known for its diabetes treatments. Ozempic is its main revenue stream, which is for the treatment of adults with insufficiently controlled type 2 diabetes.

Eli Lilly and Co is an American pharmaceutical company headquartered in Indianapolis. It engages in the discovery, development, manufacture and sale of pharmaceutical products. Its portfolio of medicine includes treatments in the areas of bone muscle joints, cancer, cardiovascular, diabetes, endocrine, immunology, neurodegeneration, neuroscience, and pain. Its products include Forteo, Adrica, BAQSIMI, Basaglar and Glucagn.

We expect a material decline in 1H26 earnings, with recent share price strength driven by the expected capital return from the equipment finance whole-of-loan sale. Share price strength has compressed total return potential to c.5%. As such, we moderate our rating from ACCUMULATE to HOLD. Target price $7.39.

CWY has revised down its FY26 EBIT guidance as a result of the impacts of the war in the Middle East. We have updated our forecasts for the EBIT guidance downgrade and higher interest rate environment. EBITDA downgrades are relatively small but EPS downgrades are material in the short term given the funding and depreciation costs of CWY’s asset base. Target price $2.95/sh. BUY retained. Potential upside catalyst is next Tuesday’s strategy briefing.

Vertex is a global biotechnology company that invests in scientific innovation to create transformative medicines for people with serious and life-threatening diseases. Founded in 1989 in Cambridge, Massachusetts, the corporate headquarters is now located in Boston’s Innovation District, with the international headquarters in London, United Kingdom. Currently, Vertex has approximately 3,500 employees in the United States, Europe, Canada, Australia and Latin America with nearly two-thirds of staff dedicated to research and development. Vertex is recognised as one of the industry’s top places to work by Science Magazine, The Boston Globe, Boston Business Journal and the San Diego Business Journal. Vertex’s research and medicines have also received esteemed recognitions, including the Robert J. Beall Therapeutics Development Award, the French Prix Galien and the British Pharmacological Society awards.