Research notes

ACF’s trading update was encouraging. While FY26 revenue and underlying EBITDA guidance was reaffirmed, management commentary pointed to improving activity levels across Australia. This was particularly pleasing in the QLD formwork division, which has experienced softer conditions over the past two years. Momentum in QLD appears to be turning, with improvement evident heading into FY27. Initial FY27 guidance was a positive surprise. While broadly in line with consensus, we view the early guidance as conservative and achievable, reflecting management’s confidence in the outlook. Importantly, FY27 guidance also implies an improvement in EBITDA margins, suggesting a favourable shift in sales mix toward the higher margin Formwork segment. We make no changes to our FY26F estimates. However, we reduce FY27F and FY28F revenue by 3%, while leaving underlying EBITDA estimates unchanged. We maintain our positive view on ACF with a BUY rating and $1.28 target price. With formwork activity - particularly in QLD - now improving, momentum into FY27 continues to build. With Brisbane Olympics-related activity also expected to ramp up over the next 12-18 months, we see ACF’s outlook as strong. Trading on 8.6x FY27F PE with a 6.0% yield, we believe the valuation remains attractive.

The INPEX/Formentera Beetaloo JV terms imply US$3,059/acre at base earn-in, escalating to US$3,547-$5,480/acre on option exercise, a 20-37x uplift on the prior Tamboran/DWE benchmark in 2025. BTL trades at an implied ~A$140/acre, a 97% discount to the INPEX base deal. Even heavy discounting for acreage quality differences leaves material upside. INPEX has committed development-scale capital (up to US$619m) to the Beetaloo as an LNG-grade resource. Farm-out leverage for BTL has stepped up materially. We maintain our Spec Buy rating, with an upgraded A$0.90 TP.

IPART has released a methodology paper outlining its proposed approach to calculating an Initial Asset Base (IAB), which has direct implications for the pricing of Electronic Lodgment Network Operators (ELNOs). While this is just a discussion paper, it certainly points to a likely more rigid structure controlling PXA’s future pricing, while elements such as the potential exclusion of goodwill from IPART's proposed IAB calculation could present downside risk. We make nominal changes to our PXA earnings of -1%-2% on some post results earnings tweaks. While it is too early to factor in the full implications of the pricing review, we now apply a 15% discount to our valuation to account for potential regulatory risk, setting our price target at A$14.31. We maintain our ACCUMULATE recommendation with >10% upside to our PT.

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NGI has acquired Georgian, a Toronto-based AI-focused growth equity firm. This deal appears to be a strategic fit for NGI, meeting its flagged acquisition criteria and being earnings accretive. We forecast NGI FY26F/FY27F/FY28F EPS to increase by ~1%-3% following the transaction. However, our target price reduces to A$2.98 (from A$3.35), reflecting a meaningful contraction in global peer trading multiples and our application of a more conservative valuation multiple to NGI (12.5x PE versus 15x previously). NGI's recent sell-off appears to be mainly tied to Private Credit concerns around its key strategic partner Blue Owl. We think NGI's fundamentals are largely unchanged, and current market volatility is arguably conducive to its stable of alternative asset fund managers. We rate NGI a Buy.

Amplitude’s share price suffered a brutal selloff after announcing it was now 0-for-2 in its ECSP exploration program. Isabella well flowed gas to surface but failed to maintain pressure and flow, disappointing given Isabella was the largest resource target in the program. The balance sheet and A$100m H1 EBITDAX buy time, but with two wells left and FID deferred, the next spud is effectively a must-win for the growth thesis. We retain our BUY rating with a revised A$3.00 target price, but the risk equation has shifted. Priced as an ex-growth cash cow, but still sensitive to well results.

4Q25 spodumene production fell -10% qoq, but the result was lifted by sales which were +4% qoq. LTR finished FY25 with A$156m of cash (-10% qoq). FY26 will be a transitional year with production and cost reductions to be 2H26 weighted as LTR ramps up underground mining. We maintain our SELL rating with a A$0.56ps target price (previously A$0.50ps)

We note two successful events for APA in the last week or so, one in unregulated M&A and the other in dealing with the regulator on an acquired asset. While these wins are positive, we think the market’s focus will in time again be drawn to APA’s very material earnings and cashflow decline coming in less than 10 years’ time, which provides a meaningful headwind for equity value uplift and DPS growth. 12 month target price lifted to $7.60/sh. At current prices, we retain a TRIM rating given potential TSR of -c.4%.

REH provided a weak trading update on the back of ongoing soft housing market conditions in both ANZ and the US. Management has guided to FY25 group EBIT of between $548-558m. At the midpoint, this was ~5% below our forecast and ~6% lower than Visible Alpha consensus. We decrease FY25/26/27F group EBIT by 5%/7%/7%. Our target price falls to $14.80 (previously $18.70) and we downgrade our rating to HOLD (previously BUY). While we continue to see REH as a good business with a strong culture and long track record of growth, the near-term housing market outlook remains uncertain. We therefore prefer to wait for a further update on operating conditions at REH’s FY25 result on 25 August before potentially reassessing our view.

Back in Apr-25 PPE provided a 3Q25 update with EBITDA for the quarter at $6.3m, down 9% on the pcp. While in FY24, PPE delivered 4Q EBITDA of $9.8m, a benchmark which is unlikely to be beaten in 4Q25, given amongst other factors the timing of Easter. This note sees us adjust down our 4Q25 earnings expectations ahead of the full year result. It remains our expectation that PPE’s earnings are bumbling along the cyclical low, whilst the business is also trading at a relatively low PER multiple (8x FY26F). We reiterate our Speculative Buy rating and price target of $1.05/sh, pending a cyclical turnaround (the timing of which remains uncertain).