Research notes

A strong copper-driven 1H26 result, but the highlight was a savvy deal monetising Antamina’s silver stream for value equal to consensus valuation of the entire asset. Earnings quality continues to step forward, maintaining robust operational and cost performances across the portfolio. Injecting >US$6bn cash in H2 more than offsets Jansen. Maintain HOLD rating.

An upgrade to FY26 dividend guidance (and also to payout ratio and franking) and an addition to the buyback outshone an unchanged FY26 EBITDA guidance and no sale of the Network business. Immaterial upgrades to FY26-27F EPS, but a material downgrade to FY28F. Target price lifts to $3.23/sh from $2.89/sh on forecast update and valuation roll-forward. TRIM retained, with recent share price strength implying potential TSR of -9%.

GPT continues to demonstrate operational outperformance across all sectors, while asset values stabilised, as book values improved +2.0% (+$308.5m) on a largely unchanged 5.76% WACR, reinforcing the resilience of the diversified portfolio in a higher-rate environment. At the same time, we believe the Group’s transition toward a scaled funds-management platform is not being fully recognised by the market, despite AUM increasing 15.6% to $39.8bn and c.$4.9bn of transactions being executed in CY26, increasing recurring fee income. Whilst look through gearing is towards the top of the range, existing liquidity of $1.2bn and $12.2bn of balance sheet assets leaves GPT well-positioned to compound earnings through both portfolio performance and platform scale, even as the rate environment tempers the near-term re-rating cycle. On this basis, we retain our Accumulate recommendation, adjusting our target price to $5.80/sh (previously $6.20/sh) to reflect the prospect of higher rates.

VBX released an updated MRE for the Wuudagu Bauxite Project, with new discoveries driving a 108% increase in Measured and Indicated resources. The expanded resource base supports the potential for a materially larger operation than contemplated in the PFS and our forecasts (both based on ~6Mtpa), with a ~9Mtpa development scenario appearing increasingly plausible. We run a series of sensitivities to highlight the potential value of Wuudagu, which, in our view, remains underappreciated by the market. We maintain our 25% risk weighted (discounted 75%) SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation and price target of A$2.10ps.

A2M’s 1H26 result was stronger than expected. The beat for us reflected stronger than expected Other Nutritionals and Liquid Milk sales. FY26 guidance was upgraded once again. NPAT growth should accelerate in FY27 given A2 Pokeno is expected to breakeven and new China label (CL) IF products will be launched. While we rate the company and its management team highly, we believe that the stock is trading on fair multiples (FY27 PE of 29.3x and PEG of 1.9x). We maintain a Hold rating with a new price target of A$9.50 (previously $9.40).

1HFY26 is stronger than it first appears, with soft organic top-line growth in subdued market conditions but expanding margins driving profit above expectations. Tariff-related pricing appears to be working (so far), KBU synergies are tracking ahead, and APIP savings have now reached their US$50m annualised target. Importantly, FY26 guidance was maintained despite a c$5m FX headwind, but now the debate shifts from execution to sustainability, with limited volume growth, most structural benefits embedded and the company now entering a CEO transition alongside a major ERP rollout adding to uncertainty. We make modest FY26-28 forecast changes, with our DCF/SOTP PT increasing to A$35.23. HOLD.

JBH delivered a solid result, which was broadly in line with expectations. Sales were robust (+7.3%) driven by continued demand for consumer electronics and home appliances and executed well during key promotional sales events. Margins were well managed, resulting in EBIT growth of +8.1% yoy. Trading in January has slowed from the 2Q, with management noting a cautious outlook given the retail market uncertainty and continued competitive environment. We have upgraded to a HOLD (from TRIM), and look for any weakness as a buying opportunity for this high quality retailer. Our target price falls from $95 to $87.

Delivered underlying, unaudited EBITDA of $106.9 million in 2Q26, bringing 1H26 EBITDA to $214.8 million despite weakness in coal prices. NHC delivered a 2Q that positions it to ramp up its Bengalla operation to its 13.4Mtpa ROM coal production run rate in 2H26 and achieve upper end of New Acland 3 guidance range. We rate NHC a HOLD (previously ACCUMULATE) with a target of A$5.00ps (previously $4.55ps).

Shell PLC, previously Royal Dutch Shell PLC, is a British multinational integrated oil and gas company with headquarters in London and operations in over 70 countries. Shell operates across five divisions: Integrated Gas, Upstream, Marketing, Chemicals and Products, Renewables and Energy Solutions.

The 1H26 result was softer than expected, with revenue, margins and profit negatively impacted mainly on longer than anticipated contracting for the newly launched Nucleus Nexa system (Nexa). Soft Cochlear Implants (CI) growth mis-matched sales, reflecting unfavourable emerging market mix and delayed developed market momentum, while Services was flat and Acoustics surprised to downside on increased competitive pressures. While Nexa adoption accelerated late in the half and management maintained FY26 guidance, but now is targeting the lower end of the range, it increases reliance on a strong 2H recovery which appears optimistic, especially in light of flat GM and FX headwinds. We adjust our FY26-28 estimates and lower our target price to A$214.93. We maintain a cautious stance, but move to HOLD on share weakness.