Research notes

The FDA has provided formal confirmation and alignment on Galidesivir’s Animal Rule development pathway, setting out a clear two-stage program and materially de-risking the asset. The update represents the strongest regulatory signal to date that Galidesivir is on a viable, accelerated path toward approval as a US biodefence countermeasure and supports multiple potential value levers including a Priority Review Voucher. ILA concurrently announced it has raised A$9m at A$0.35 which the company believes will be ample funding to see Galvesivir through to potential marketing approval, as well as sufficient excess to advance other opportunities in Ebola and Sudan Viruses.

VFY’s 1H26 update outlined continued operational progression with the first Guardion devices entering the US market, FDA registration activity starting and commercial programs advancing across animal health and human health. The outlook centres on executing near-term commercial pathways including IMV Technologies workstreams, Phase II platelet readouts in 2H26, expanded US customer engagement and scaling device supply in preparation for broader market adoption.

CCP’s 1H26 NPAT of ~A$44m (flat on the pcp) was ~10% under consensus/MorgE. Whilst guidance was reiterated, the compositional mix shift towards AU debt purchases for FY26 (revised upwards) and the lowering of US purchasing guidance (noting some increased competitive pricing) saw the stock close ~17% lower. Operational efficiency/productivity has improved, however delivering on US divisional growth is key to our long-term investment thesis and a key catalyst. At ~7x FY27 PE (MorgE) the valuation appears undemanding. BUY maintained.

BlinkLab (ASX: BB1) has a number of important catalysts approaching. BB1’s core offering is a smartphone-based neuroscience diagnostic platform. Its primary ‘Software as a Medical Device’ (SaMD) product is planned to be used as an aid for the diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). A pilot study has achieved results better than the current standard of care and supports the commencement of a pivotal study. There a several key catalysts which investors should focus on including completion and analysis of the European ADHD data set and the start of the pivotal autism study both events are expected this quarter.

4Q25 spodumene production fell -10% qoq, but the result was lifted by sales which were +4% qoq. LTR finished FY25 with A$156m of cash (-10% qoq). FY26 will be a transitional year with production and cost reductions to be 2H26 weighted as LTR ramps up underground mining. We maintain our SELL rating with a A$0.56ps target price (previously A$0.50ps)

We note two successful events for APA in the last week or so, one in unregulated M&A and the other in dealing with the regulator on an acquired asset. While these wins are positive, we think the market’s focus will in time again be drawn to APA’s very material earnings and cashflow decline coming in less than 10 years’ time, which provides a meaningful headwind for equity value uplift and DPS growth. 12 month target price lifted to $7.60/sh. At current prices, we retain a TRIM rating given potential TSR of -c.4%.

REH provided a weak trading update on the back of ongoing soft housing market conditions in both ANZ and the US. Management has guided to FY25 group EBIT of between $548-558m. At the midpoint, this was ~5% below our forecast and ~6% lower than Visible Alpha consensus. We decrease FY25/26/27F group EBIT by 5%/7%/7%. Our target price falls to $14.80 (previously $18.70) and we downgrade our rating to HOLD (previously BUY). While we continue to see REH as a good business with a strong culture and long track record of growth, the near-term housing market outlook remains uncertain. We therefore prefer to wait for a further update on operating conditions at REH’s FY25 result on 25 August before potentially reassessing our view.

Back in Apr-25 PPE provided a 3Q25 update with EBITDA for the quarter at $6.3m, down 9% on the pcp. While in FY24, PPE delivered 4Q EBITDA of $9.8m, a benchmark which is unlikely to be beaten in 4Q25, given amongst other factors the timing of Easter. This note sees us adjust down our 4Q25 earnings expectations ahead of the full year result. It remains our expectation that PPE’s earnings are bumbling along the cyclical low, whilst the business is also trading at a relatively low PER multiple (8x FY26F). We reiterate our Speculative Buy rating and price target of $1.05/sh, pending a cyclical turnaround (the timing of which remains uncertain).

FY25 earnings risk has been mostly removed with firm guidance provided for EBITDA, D&A and net interest. Focus of the August result will be on FY26 guidance - we target c.15% EBITDA growth and c.44% EPS growth. Expect FY27 growth to be far more benign. The stock faces negative narrative on its underperforming Bulk and Containerised Freight investments, but we also see heightened pressures in its Coal segment. Short-term valuation metrics look attractive but our revised DCF-based target price of $2.94/sh is weighed down by updates to our medium term forecasts (especially Coal). Downgrade to HOLD.

XRO will acquire North American Digital Payments business, Melio, for US$2.5bn. The acquisition is short-term dilutive as XRO is acquiring a loss-making business. However, medium term this should help XRO fast track its American expansion. The acquisition brings product innovation and makes XRO’s NAM product more compelling due to combining digital payments and accounting. It also brings additional scale which should, with additional sales and marketing investments, move XRO closer to a scale player with critical mass in North America. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation and $215 Target Price.