Research notes

4Q production again proved strong but we’re cautious re approaching wet weather. We make several adjustments, trimming our valuation/ target slightly to $4.20ps. Introduction of dividends strongly builds SMR’s appeal to a wider investor base. We maintain an Add, but do note upside has narrowed on SMR’s re-rating. 1H Sales disruption and tepid steel markets could easily uncover better value.

NAN released a negative trading update, citing hospital budgetary pressures deferring purchasing decisions around new and replacement Trophon units. The timing of the update was surprising to us, and while market trust has clearly diminished following the announcement, we expect management to navigate and adjust as needed. The key will be more detailed guidance at the February result, and while we see the stock as deserving of a de-rate, we continue to see significant value in the install base, superiority over competitors, and Coris potential. Our target price reduces to A$3.88 and we retain our Add recommendation.

COE posted a solid 2Q’FY24 production and sales result, while a budget blowout at BMG increases the short-term drag on COE’s balance sheet. 2Q24 group production was 5.68PJe (vs MorgE/consensus 5.4/5.5PJe). New record daily production rate reached at Orbost of 67tj/d. Increased BMG abandonment budget of A$240-$280m (was A$193-$198m). We maintain an Add rating, with an A$0.25ps target price (was A$0.26).

KAR has provided an operational update following clearing of the hydrate issue at the SPS88 well, and subsequent mechanical failure. The surface issues are expected to persist until Q4’CY24, with a backlog on regulator approvals currently in Brazil delaying the work required to fix SPS88. KAR has revised CY24 group production guidance to 11.2-13.5mmboe (vs MorgE 12.6mmboe). We maintain an Add rating, with an updated A$2.80ps target price (previously A$2.95).

GDG’s 2Q24 quarterly update saw a strong Investment bond (IB) sales performance of ~A$156m (+37% on the pcp), albeit with netflows below our expectations (+A$91m versus +A$106m) on higher outflows.  The standout in the quarterly was the very strong IB investment performance (+A$140m), which helped drive FUM up a healthy ~9% over the period. We lift our GDG FY24F/FY25F EPS by 1%-3% on higher IB FUM forecasts in all years. Our target price is set at A$2.01 (previously A$1.91). We continue to believe GDG is well positioned to execute a compound earnings growth story over time. ADD maintained.

JDO released its unaudited 1H24 result and outlook for 2H24 (and into FY25), which were ahead of expectations. We make material upgrades to forecasts to align with performance and outlook. 12 month target price lifted 8% to $1.50/share, due to forecast changes. ADD.

GDF‘s focus remains on capital recycling initiatives and executing on the current development pipeline. During 1H24, GDF has executed on asset sales totalling +$100m which will be used to pay down debt and recycle into industrial developments, particularly North Lakes. Post settlement of the Botanicca 7 and 9 office assets in February, we estimate GDF’s portfolio will be valued at +$460m and will be 80% weighted towards industrial (SE QLD) with the sole office asset the Cairns Corporate Tower (BV $82m). At the upcoming result on 8 February we expect FY24 DPS guidance of 6.3c to be reiterated however likely with a higher payout ratio and FFO guidance to be lower given the timing between asset sales and new industrial developments completing. GDF usually revalues assets around April/May so updates will likely fall after the 1H result however the Richlands industrial development may be revalued prior to this (10 year lease commences 2024). We retain an Add rating with a revised price target of $1.65.

PIQ have released its quarterly report in concert to an institutional placement and founder sell-down however key update around US rollout disappoints, now expected in Q2CY24 (3-6 month delay). We worked under the assumption that PIQ and SHUSA remained on track for initial launch to shortly follow with the effective date for Medicare/Medicaid reimbursement, but as we’ve highlighted in the past – dealing with these larger institutions can come at cost to timelines often being less nimble and incentivised to condense timelines. We have adjusted expectations on our US commercialisation and associated risks to market penetration and roll through new share issuance. Our target price reduces to A$1.38 (from A$2.42) and we retain our Speculative Buy recommendation.

PNV has provided a positive trading update for 1H24, highlighting a positive EBITDA which was a pleasant surprise and ahead of our expectations. We have increased our forecasts by ~2.0% for FY25/26. As a result our valuation and target price has increased to A$1.95 (was A$1.88). The share price has rallied over 30% in the last month and now sits within 10% of our target price and as a result we move our recommendation to Hold (from Add).

Price competition is intense across all categories of retail at present. This presents a particular challenge for Baby Bunting as many of its products are big ticket, infrequent purchases. Price competition cost the company around $6m in lost sales in 1H24 and the operating leverage effect of this, together with the cost of investing in marketing, has weighed on earnings. We believe Baby Bunting is following the appropriate strategy to strengthen its market position, but it will take time. We have cut estimates, but we’re staying on an ADD rating with a $2.00 target price.