Your personal investing strategy
At Morgans, we take a personalised approach to help you achieve your investment goals. We understand that investing is not a one-size-fits-all endeavour, and we are here to tailor our services and products to your specific needs and preferences.
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Our investment philosophy
Getting started is an important step, and we want to ensure that we have a deep understanding of where you stand when it comes to investing. We consider four foundational aspects.
Income Investing
Income investing
Income investing is a strategy focused on generating a reliable and steady stream of passive income. Investors pursuing this style often choose assets such as dividend-paying stocks, real estate investment trusts (REITs), and high-yield bonds. The primary goal is to accumulate regular cash flow from these investments, providing a consistent source of income. This approach appeals to those seeking financial stability and regular returns, making it a popular choice for retirees or anyone looking to supplement their income through strategic investment choices.
Capital growth
Capital growth investing is a strategy centered on increasing the value of an investment portfolio over time. Investors pursuing this style typically allocate funds to assets with the potential for substantial appreciation in value, such as growth stocks or emerging market opportunities. The focus is on long-term capital appreciation, with the goal of building wealth and achieving significant returns.
While capital growth investing involves a higher level of risk, it appeals to those with a longer investment horizon and a willingness to withstand market fluctuations in pursuit of higher overall portfolio value over time.
Capital security
Capital security investing prioritises the preservation of invested capital and minimising the risk of loss. Investors adopting this strategy tend to allocate funds to low-risk assets such as government bonds, high-quality corporate bonds, or other stable securities. The primary objective is to safeguard the initial investment, even if it means accepting lower returns compared to riskier investments.
Capital security is particularly attractive to conservative investors or those nearing retirement who prioritise protecting their wealth and are more risk-averse. This approach provides a sense of financial stability and security, albeit with potentially lower returns compared to higher-risk investment strategies.
Risk / return
Risk/return investing involves a balanced approach to investment strategy, carefully weighing potential risks against anticipated returns. Investors pursuing this style seek to enhance their portfolio performance by selecting a mix of assets that align with their risk tolerance and financial goals. This strategy acknowledges that higher potential returns often come with increased risk and vice versa.
Balancing the risk-return profile allows investors to tailor their portfolios to match their individual preferences, whether they are comfortable with more volatility in pursuit of higher returns or prefer a more conservative approach with lower risk and stable, albeit potentially more modest, returns. This versatile strategy enables investors to align their portfolios with their specific risk preferences and financial objectives.
News & insights
Investment Watch is a quarterly publication produced by Morgans that delves into key insights for equity and economic strategy.
This publication covers
Economics - 'A comparative outlook on the Fed and RBA'
Asset Allocation - 'Countering uncertainty'
Equity Strategy - 'Broadening our portfolio exposure'
Banks - 'Price strength compresses potential returns'
Industrials - 'Wild swings'
Resources and Energy - 'Sentiment turning'
Technology - 'Buy quality when opportunities arise'
Consumer Discretionary - 'Encouraging medium-term signs'
Telco - 'Defensive attributes remain attractive'
Infrastructure - 'Attractive, but with limited opportunities'
Property - 'An improving cycle'
Recent Intiations
As we approach Q4, we maintain our positive view on investment markets, grounded in the expectation of slowing but still positive global growth. The shift in market dynamics is driven by the resumption of US Fed rate cuts and the continued acceleration of tech innovation and productivity gains. We think these factors will mitigate the impact of ongoing economic challenges and geopolitical volatility. This quarter, we map the outlook for interest rates and how this shapes our asset allocation decisions. We also provide an outlook for the key sectors of the Australian market and where we see the best tactical opportunities
Morgans clients receive exclusive insights such as access to our latest Investment Watch publication. Contact us today to begin your journey with Morgans.
Each quarter, the Australian Financial Review conducts a comprehensive survey involving 39 economists who provide forecasts on key indicators such as GDP, the Australian dollar, the cash rate, and core inflation. Over the past two years, the AFR has also ranked these economists based on the statistical accuracy of their predictions. I have been fortunate to be included in the top ten for both years.
In this article, I will share my own views on the economic outlook, as published in the AFR survey, alongside insights from two other top-ten contributors. One represents a major bank and the other a leading financial institution.
Starting with GDP, my forecast for 2025 is 1.7 percent growth. This matches the major bank’s projection. The financial institution is slightly more optimistic, forecasting 1.8 percent. These figures suggest a broadly consistent view of modest growth.
By mid-2026, growth is expected to pick up. I am slightly more conservative than the others, forecasting 1.9 percent for the year to June. For the year to December 2026, I anticipate growth of 2 percent, while the bank and institution forecast 2.2 and 2.3 percent respectively.
This divergence in growth estimates likely reflects differing views on productivity. In the first quarter of this year, most GDP growth came from the public sector, resulting in very low productivity growth of just 0.30 percent. As growth shifts toward the private sector, productivity should improve. However, I expect less private-sector-driven growth, which informs my more cautious forecast. I also anticipate that employment growth will be driven more by Federal government spending and public sector hiring.
Turning to the Australian dollar, I hold a more optimistic view than the other two contributors. I forecast the dollar to reach 68 US cents by the end of this year and 70 US cents by mid-next year. The major bank expects 67 US cents and then 68 US cents, while the institution forecasts 67 US cents and 69 US cents. My outlook on the Australian dollar is based on the belief that Australia’s rate cuts are nearing completion, while the United States is just beginning its rate-cut cycle.
I have previously stated that the Federal Reserve funds rate could fall to 3.35 percent, assuming it stops at neutral. However, if the U.S. economy weakens, which is likely in a midterm election year, the Fed may cut rates more aggressively. Additionally, the inflationary impact of tariffs is expected to fade next year, leading to a significant drop in U.S. inflation by mid-2026. This could prompt the Fed to cut rates below neutral, weakening the U.S. dollar and strengthening the Australian dollar.
Six months ago, I was asked whether it was worth hedging the Australian dollar. At the time, I said no, as I expected more rate cuts in Australia than in the U.S. Now, with Australia’s rate cuts coming to an end and the U.S. just beginning, it is an opportune time to consider hedging the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar.
Regarding the cash rate, I expect trimmed mean inflation to fall to 2.5 percent in the ABS estimate for the CPI released on 29 October. If this occurs, the Reserve Bank of Australia could cut the cash rate once more to 3.35 percent by year-end. If inflation does not fall, rates are likely to remain unchanged.
Interestingly, the major bank expects rates to fall not only in December but again by June next year. The financial institution sees no cut this year but expects rates to fall to 3.35 percent by mid-next year. Again, Australia is nearing the end of its rate-cut cycle, while the U.S. is just beginning its own rate cut cycle.
On inflation, I believe the RBA can only cut rates if quarterly inflation falls to 2.5 percent. I forecast this inflation number by December and again by mid-next year. The major bank expects core inflation to be 2.6 percent in both periods, which I believe is too high to justify rate cuts. The institution forecasts 2.9 percent inflation by year-end and 2.7 percent by mid-next year, which also seems inconsistent with a rate-cut scenario. These differences highlight varying interpretations of inflation data.
I have previously noted that the RBA places greater emphasis on the quarterly trimmed mean than the monthly CPI. Governor Michelle Bullock confirmed this in her recent media briefing, stating that while the RBA is transitioning to monthly CPI, it will continue to request quarterly trimmed mean data. This is because the quarterly measure provides a more accurate reflection of services inflation. While monthly CPI may be published, the quarterly trimmed mean will remain central to the RBA’s decisions on the cash rate.
In our previous discussion on the Fed, we suggested that the deterioration in the US labour market would move the Fed toward an easing path. We have now seen the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting. As a result, the effective Fed funds rate has fallen from 4.35% to 4.10%.
Our model of the Fed funds rate suggests that the effective rate should move toward 3.35%. At this level, the model indicates that monetary policy would be neutral.
The Summary of Economic Projections from Federal Reserve members and Fed Presidents also suggests that the Fed funds rate will fall to a similar level of 3.4% in 2026.
We believe this will happen by the end of the first quarter of 2026. In fact, the Summary of Economic Projections expects an effective rate of 3.6% by the end of 2025.
The challenge remains the gradually weakening US labour market, with unemployment expected to rise from 4.3% now to 4.5% by the end of 2025. This is then projected to fall very slowly to 4.4% by the end of 2026 and 4.3% by the end of 2027.
These expectations would suggest one of the least eventful economic cycles in recent history. We should be so lucky!
In the short term, it is likely that the Fed will cut the effective funds rate to 3.4% by March 2026.
This move to a neutral stance will have a significant effect on the world trade cycle and on commodities. The US dollar remains the principal currency for financing trade in the Indo-Pacific. Lower US short-term rates will likely generate a recovery in the trade of manufacturing exports in the Indo-Pacific region, which in turn will increase demand for commodities.
The Fed’s move to a neutral monetary policy will generate benefits well beyond the US.
