Research notes

The ammonium paratungstate (APT) price continues to climb, above US$1,600 per metric tonne unit (mtu – 10kg). We have lifted the modelled short-term price to US$1,300/mtu, and our long-term price from US$600/mtu to US$700/mtu. Our valuation and target price have lifted from A$0.16 per share to A$0.23ps. Continued strength in the tungsten price, a most critical metal, could lead to a further increase in our target price. With the share price above our target price, we lower our rating to TRIM from Speculative Buy. Tungsten concentrate production at the start of this current March Quarter may have been affected by the Wet Season in north Queensland at Mt Carbine, and to some extent at Barruecopardo, Salamanca Province, Spain.

Waypoint REIT (WPR) delivered a solid FY25 result with FFO of 16.64c, in-line with upgraded guidance and FY26 outlook modestly ahead of expectations. The portfolio continues to perform as a yield-focused vehicle, with limited near-term execution risk following the renewal of the majority of FY26 lease expiries with key tenant Viva Energy (VEA), securing ~12% rental uplift. WPR trades at ~13% discount to NTA ($2.90) and offers a ~7% FY26F distribution yield. We upgrade WPR from Hold to ACCUMULATE. Our target price increases to $2.75 (prev. $2.70).

IAM reported its 1H26 result with revenue of ~A$9.1m, +13% on pcp (1H25 ~A$8m), but ~A$1m below our estimate. It was an overall resilient half for IAM, seeing Bond/Loan FUA growth and a strong net trading income performance. Having right-sized its cost base with annualised cash costs now around A$17m, further topline line growth from here should result in operating leverage coming through. We expect the business to continue to move towards profitability. Speculative Buy maintained.

Small 4Q25 EPS miss vs expectations but the near-long term reset in production targets (265kt vs 280kt near term, 375kt vs 400kt long term) was the driver of the -9% share price reaction, in our view. We trim our long-term production assumptions and target price to A$16ps (from A$16.60ps). Even on a moderated growth profile, CSC still delivers ~60% production growth to CY30 from current CY26 forecasts and trades cheaply at 6x/4x CY26/CY27 EV/EBITDA, pricing in US$4.25/lb copper into perpetuity. Maintain BUY with a A$16ps target price (previously A$16.60ps).

McDonald’s Corporation (MCD.NYS) is a global QSR (Quick Service Restaurant) business known for signature menu items such as the Big Mac, Quarter Pounder, Chicken McNuggets, and Fries. The Golden Arches logo is one of the most instantly recognisable symbols of American consumer culture in the world.

Chipotle Mexican Grill is the largest fast-casual restaurant chain in the US with total system sales of US$9.9bn in 2023. Chipotle’s store network is mainly company-owned and not franchised (apart from the Middle East). Chipotle sells burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads made using fresh, high-quality ingredients, with a selling proposition built around competitive prices, high-quality food sourcing, speed of service, and convenience. It had a footprint of nearly 3,440 stores at the end of 2023, heavily indexed to the United States, although it maintains a small presence in Canada, the UK, France, and Germany.

RDY’s 1H26 result and revised outlook came in softer than expected, with Underlying EBITDA of $17.5m / Cash EBITDA of $7.5m ~6% behind MorgF. Whilst RDY’s enterprise strategy remains on track, the group indicated that increased churn in 1H26 along with more protracted implementation/sale conversion have led to an FY26 guidance downgrade and the withdrawal of its longer-term targets. Whilst we downgrade our FY26-17 EBITDA forecasts by 10-20% reflecting revised guidance, given RDY’s robust pipeline, potential catalysts (VIC TAFE decision and likely increased corporate appeal), we move to a SPECULATIVE BUY rating, with a revised price target of $2.20/sh (previously $3.00/sh).

CHL’s 1H26 result highlighted the ongoing transition underway within the business, with lower opex and stronger unit economics from the MyWay mutual and membership-led strategy. Whilst GTV decline (-17%) was a result negative, we acknowledge some of the contraction was due to CHL deliberately pulling back low-margin volume. CHL Revenue of ~A$19m was ~5% down on the pcp, With the seasonally stronger period now underway, a deeper ANZ partnership funnel (JB Group) and future bookings of ~A$32m at period-end, we expect the business to have an improved half-on-half performance.

RIC’s 1H26 result was stronger than expected and IPF is off to a solid start. RIC’s outlook comments were stronger than expected for Bulk Stockfeeds and IPF but softer for the Packaged Feeds & Ingredients (PF&I). Pleasingly, IPF synergies have been upgraded to A$15m from A$7m previously. We have revised our forecasts. RIC’s new FY26-28 Growth Plan will be released at its Investor Strategy Day on 10-11 March. We view this event as the next catalyst for the stock. We remain positive on the group’s future prospects and maintain an ACCUMULATE rating with A$3.20 price target.

PPE’s 1H26 result reflected its streamlined business, following the sale of its Health and Community operations in late CY25. Ongoing operating EBITDA of $10.5m declined 9.2% yoy, whilst increasing 46% hoh. Key P&L metrics improved hoh, while still falling short of the prior year, suggesting any earnings recovery is still unproven. To this end, we continue to believe that PPE is producing cyclically low earnings, with the improvement hoh still too early to be called a trend. Whilst tentative, we see some early signs of improvement and reiterate our Speculative Buy recommendation and $0.95/sh price target.