Research notes

Mastercard is a technology company that provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally. It facilitates the processing of payment transactions, including authorisation, clearing, and settlements. The company offers integrated products and value-added services for account holders, merchants, financial institutions, businesses, governments, and other organisations.

Boeing is a leading global aerospace and defence manufacturer, founded in 1916 and headquartered in Arlington, United States. The company designs and produces commercial airplanes, military aircraft, satellites, and space systems for customers in more than 150 countries. With a commercial airline market share of approximately 43%, Boeing remains a central player in global aviation. The company enters 2026 focused on production ramp-up, certification milestones for the 737 MAX 7, MAX 10 and 777-9, and a strategic recovery path under CEO Kelly Ortberg. Its extensive order backlog and diversified defence programs continue to underpin long-term growth opportunities.

Rheinmetall AG is a leading German defence contractor best known for designing and manufacturing tanks, cannons, and advanced combat systems. Its crown jewel is the 120mm smoothbore cannon used on the Leopard 2 main battle tank, widely regarded as one of the most precise and powerful tank guns in service. Rheinmetall is also a core industrial partner in the Franco-German MGCS (Main Ground Combat System) programme, aimed at developing Europe’s next-generation main battle tank.

CY25 marked a pivotal transition to commercialisation, with first US implants and strong early momentum continuing into CY26, supported by favourable reimbursement and growing physician engagement. Early KPIs remain encouraging, with implant volumes accelerating (18 in 4Q; 25 in Jan–Feb CY26), 28 hospital agreements signed, and 46 physicians trained, indicating a solid foundation for scale. Salesforce capacity and reimbursement complexity, not demand, act as governors, with strong patient pipelines and high physician enthusiasm. With cash of cUS$54m, B/S is a near-term focus, placing increased importance on execution through CY26 to support future funding at improved terms. We adjusted CY26-28 forecasts, with our DCF-based valuation decreasing to A$2.47. BUY.

TCG released an MRE upgrade for the Afema Gold Project lifting the resource base to 4.65Moz Au at 1.3g/t Au (up from 4Moz)– a beat on our forecasts of 4.5Moz Au at 1.1g/t Au. Afema now ranks as one of the largest undeveloped gold resources on the ASX. We maintain our existing forecasts and reiterate our BUY rating, price target A$2.19ps.

We initiate coverage on 29Metals (29M) with a 12-month target price of A$0.54ps and a BUY recommendation. We expect the Xantho Extended restart and Gossan Valley development at Golden Grove to restore grades and operating flexibility, while a potential Capricorn Copper restart provides medium-term production growth. Following its recent equity raise, 29M is better positioned to execute its plans, with upside potential supported by a constructive long-term copper outlook.

AIH has announced the completion of its acquisition of Imenco. We have incorporated the transaction into our forecasts, with the deal expected to be low-to-mid single digit EPS accretive. However, we use this update to also reflect forecast FX headwinds (GBP/AUD), which we expect to more than offset the accretion from the acquisition. Our forecasts for the base business are unchanged excluding the impacts from FX, and we continue to assume constant FX in outer years. Overall, we reduce our EBITDA forecasts by 1% annually across FY26-28 and NPAT by 3-4% over the same period. Target price reduces modestly to $1.45.

MEK announced an expansion to 800ktpa (equivalent ounce basis) via ore sorting, requiring modest capex of A$6m with commissioning scheduled for Q1FY27. Ore sorting effectively near doubles Andy Well underground head grade, lifting our annual production forecasts by an average of 7% from FY27 onwards. Open Pit throughput has tracked below DFS forecasts due to moisture-driven variability in open pit ore, an issue expected to resolve with underground stope commencement in 4QFY26. We revise our FY26 production forecast to 37.6koz Au (from 40.2koz), this is below the DFS guidance. We maintain our BUY rating and A$0.39ps price target, acknowledging near-term production softness may weigh on the 3Q result ahead of an anticipated step-change in output in 4Q.

Overall result missed expectations, with underlying NPAT of A$54m materially below MorgansF (A$63m) and Visible Alpha consensus (A$78m), despite EBITDA of A$215m coming in line with expectations. NHC declared a fully franked 10c dividend, beating MorgansF (8c) and consensus (6c) estimates. With an increasing production profile and material upside potential in coal prices, NHCs outlook remains positive. We maintain a HOLD rating with a target price of A$5.00ps.