Research notes

CY26 production guidance is well below expectations with higher costs and capex reflecting lower grades at Pinto Valley and Mantos Blancos, and strike and tie-in impacts at Mantoverde driving likely near-term earnings revisions. CY26 headwinds are largely sequencing and one-off in nature, with MV-O ramp-up and higher grades positioning CSC for volume growth and lower unit costs from CY27 onward. Maintain BUY with a A$16.60ps target price (previously A$17.40).

STP 1H26 earnings were broadly in line with guidance provided in December, although fell materially short of prior expectations. Revenue was down ~25% and reported a $10m EBITDA loss (including $10.9m inventory obsolescence provision). FY26 will be a reset year for the business, with management focusing on rebuilding brand equity for longer term profitable growth. STP have reset pricing, scaling back promotional activity, increased brand marketing spend to drive new customer acquisition and continue to launch new products in adjacent categories. We have made modest changes to earnings, our price target is $0.29 (was $0.30) and we maintain our HOLD recommendation.

HCW is edging towards a negotiated resolution for the Healthscope assets. Importantly, rent has been paid in full across the portfolio and HCW has executable agreements with alternative operators for all 11 hospitals - with new long-term leases at unchanged face rents (with incentives), should Healthscope breach the lease. Moderate gearing of 28.5% leaves HCW well-positioned to navigate the uncertain timing and gearing impacts from a managed decline to asset values. Our view is that this is a speculative situation where clarity on Healthscope can re-rate HCW toward a pragmatic NTA band (c.$1.10-1.20), while restoring distributions and delivering a solid yield on entry price. On this basis, we upgrade to a Speculative Buy with a $1.05/unit PT to reflect near-term execution risk but a favourable risk-reward.

QAL’s 1H26 result shows a platform accelerating on deployment, benefiting from both residential and private-credit tailwinds, and converting scale into higher recurring revenue, stronger margins and growing performance fees. This has seen Fee Earning FUM (FEF) increase 38% (vs pcp), while record deployment (+57% vs pcp) was largely driven by repeat borrowers (76%). The continued demand for QAL’s funds resulted in higher quality result, with recurring base management fees +28% (yoy) and loan transaction fees up +69% (yoy). Running contrary to the strong operational performance, QAL’s share price has declined 14% over the past three months as sector multiples moderated. In light of this share price moderation we retain an Accumulate recommendation with a $3.80/sh target price.

1H26 was ahead of expectations at all operating metrics. Earnings grew substantially (EBITDA +25% YoY) despite a relatively subdued top-line (+5%), which is indicative of a steady portfolio of haulage projects and a renewed focus on margins. MLG reinstated dividends which signals confidence in the outlook and the company’s financial position. The company flagged a robust outlook for FY26, underpinned by the strength in gold which is driving greater demand for MLG’s services. Although outlook commentary is for 2H to be broadly in line with 1H, we leave our earnings forecasts unchanged which contemplates a slight 2H skew (EBITDA 48:52). The only change to forecasts is our assumptions around the dividend. More generally, MLG has opportunities for scope growth with existing gold customers, as well as growth potential in iron ore. Additionally, MLG is in advanced discussions to move up the value chain to assist tier 2 producers into production. Target price increases to $1.20 (from $1.00) on valuation roll-forward.

BBN’s 1H26 pro-forma NPAT was up 4.1% yoy to $5.0m which was in the middle of guidance range ($4.5-$5.5m) driven by comps sales growth, gross margin expansion offset by higher costs. Nine stores have been refurbished to the new store design, and have performed strongly, sales up 25%, which is at the upper end of guidance range of 15-25%. FY26 NPAT guidance has been narrowed to $17.5-$19.5m (was $17-20m). We have made minor changes to forecasts. We have a $2.60 target price (was $2.70) Hold recommendation retained.

SEK’s 1H26 result was largely as per expectations with net revenue (+12% on pcp), Adjusted EBITDA (+19% on pcp) and adjusted NPAT (+35% on pcp) all broadly in line with Visible Alpha consensus and MorgansF. We make only marginal adjustments to our forecasts taking into account the updated guidance. Whilst our DCF-derived price target remains unchanged at A$27.50 the recent sharp share price pullback now results in ~70% TSR upside. We move to a Buy recommendation accordingly, though SEK has still many questions to answer on the AI threat.

SRG reported a strong 1H26 with all key earnings metrics broadly in line with our forecasts. Revenue, EBITDA and EPS each grew by +20% YoY. The core business (ex-TAMS) performed well, with a weaker E&C offset by a stronger Maintenance performance, which underlines SRG’s diversification. FY26 group EBITA guidance was upgraded by +1-4% to $126-130m. The balance sheet remains robust with net debt of just $21m, leaving the company well placed to pursue further growth opportunities. While the valuation has re-rated materially over the last ~12 months, SRG may continue to compound +20% EPS growth for the next few years through a combination of organic and inorganic growth. We increase our EBITDA forecasts by +1% each year across our forecast period and EBITA by +2-3%. Target price rises to $3.20 (from $3.00). Accumulate maintained.

Strong 1H26 profit growth provided evidence of improving operating leverage. Forecast NPAT changes across FY26-28F are within +3% to -4% on a mildly higher revenue and costs scenario than previously assumed. 12 month target price lifted to $2.09/sh mostly on valuation roll-forward. Rating moved down from BUY to ACCUMULATE given recent share price strength.

TWE’s 1H26 result was weak but was broadly in line with guidance. Leverage was well above the company’s target range. Consequently, and in line with our expectations, the Board did not declare an interim dividend. TWE reiterated that 2H26 EBITS is expected to be higher than the 1H26. It is too early to call whether TWE can grow earnings in FY27. We think this will not occur until FY28 given the priority to reduce customer inventory in the US and China. It will take time for new management to deliver more acceptable returns and for TWE to rebuild credibility with the market. We maintain a HOLD rating.