Research notes

FND has come out of a trading halt post announcing a strategic investment in the company, and subsequently addressing some ASX queries. On face value, the strategic investment, which is needed to address a balance sheet crunch, appears more dilutive than hoped. Add to this negative perceptions from the trading halt and the company has some work to do to win back investor trust. We place our rating, target price, and forecasts under review pending finalisation of due diligence on the strategic investment. Our previous recommendation, target price and estimates should not be relied upon for investment decisions.

We have updated our estimates following JIN’s preliminary release of headline numbers ahead of the 1H26 result. Group revenue increased 29% yoy to $85.3m, modestly below our expectations due to weaker Lottery Retailing TTV. Underlying group EBITDA of $37.5m rose 22% on the pcp and was in line with our forecasts. Overall, our topline and earnings assumptions remain broadly unchanged. Our FY26-27F NPAT and EPS forecasts increase by 4% and 2% respectively, driven primarily by lower amortisation of acquired intangibles. At its AGM, JIN revised its dividend payout ratio to 30-50% of statutory Group NPAT to support balance sheet deleveraging following recent acquisitions. The interim dividend will be determined at the 1H26 result (MorgansF: 28cps). We view the 5% share price decline today as an opportunity to build a position in a company capable of delivering >15% EPS CAGR over the next three years. JIN is trading on an undemanding forward EV/EBITDA multiple of ~6x. We maintain a Buy recommendation with a $14.90 price target (previously $15.60).

AMC’s 1H26 operating performance was slightly softer than expected. However, underlying EPS was largely in line with forecasts and fell within management’s guidance range. EPS benefited from a more favourable tax rate, which offset weaker results from the non-core portfolio. A key positive was the delivery of Berry synergy benefits of US$55m in 2Q26, which was at the top end of management’s guidance range of US$50-55m. Synergy targets for FY26-28 were reiterated. A key negative was the performance of the non-core businesses, with volumes down high-single digit percentages during 2Q26. However, following the renegotiation of several customer contracts on better terms, segment performance should improve in 2H26. AMC also noted that discussions around portfolio optimisation are progressing well, and we view any future announcement in this area as a potential positive catalyst for the stock. We adjust FY26/27/28F underlying EPS by -1%/-3%/-4%. Our target price declines to $75.80 (from $76.00) and we maintain our BUY rating.

The FDA has provided formal confirmation and alignment on Galidesivir’s Animal Rule development pathway, setting out a clear two-stage program and materially de-risking the asset. The update represents the strongest regulatory signal to date that Galidesivir is on a viable, accelerated path toward approval as a US biodefence countermeasure and supports multiple potential value levers including a Priority Review Voucher. ILA concurrently announced it has raised A$9m at A$0.35 which the company believes will be ample funding to see Galvesivir through to potential marketing approval, as well as sufficient excess to advance other opportunities in Ebola and Sudan Viruses.

VFY’s 1H26 update outlined continued operational progression with the first Guardion devices entering the US market, FDA registration activity starting and commercial programs advancing across animal health and human health. The outlook centres on executing near-term commercial pathways including IMV Technologies workstreams, Phase II platelet readouts in 2H26, expanded US customer engagement and scaling device supply in preparation for broader market adoption.

CCP’s 1H26 NPAT of ~A$44m (flat on the pcp) was ~10% under consensus/MorgE. Whilst guidance was reiterated, the compositional mix shift towards AU debt purchases for FY26 (revised upwards) and the lowering of US purchasing guidance (noting some increased competitive pricing) saw the stock close ~17% lower. Operational efficiency/productivity has improved, however delivering on US divisional growth is key to our long-term investment thesis and a key catalyst. At ~7x FY27 PE (MorgE) the valuation appears undemanding. BUY maintained.

BlinkLab (ASX: BB1) has a number of important catalysts approaching. BB1’s core offering is a smartphone-based neuroscience diagnostic platform. Its primary ‘Software as a Medical Device’ (SaMD) product is planned to be used as an aid for the diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). A pilot study has achieved results better than the current standard of care and supports the commencement of a pivotal study. There a several key catalysts which investors should focus on including completion and analysis of the European ADHD data set and the start of the pivotal autism study both events are expected this quarter.

GNC provided guidance ahead of its AGM on 18 February. Despite a large east coast winter grain crop, GNC continues to disappoint with FY26 earnings guidance materially below consensus expectations. While its volume guidance is unchanged, margins have weakened given the grain trading environment has deteriorated further. Importantly, its balance sheet remains strong. We have made material revisions to our forecasts. The difficult margin environment is likely to also affect FY27 earnings. With payments to the insurer no longer required in big crop years, GNC’s fixed cost leverage should return when crop production issues around the world ultimately eventuate and global grain stocks tighten. However, we have now taken a much more conservative view on GNC’s ‘through-the-cycle’ EBITDA moving forward. GNC’s strategic assets are worth materially more than its current share price implies. However, the stock is lacking near term share price catalysts and investors will need to be patient.

Strong 2Q26 with a material spodumene sales and revenue beat vs MorgansF and consensus expectations. Cash balance +12% qoq with total liquidity of ~A$1.6bn leaving significant flexibility to fund growth and consider shareholder returns. Management is assessing the potential restart of the 200ktpa Ngungaju plant and other growth options in P2000 and Colina. Upgrade to HOLD (previously TRIM) on recent share price weakness with an unchanged A$4.60ps target price.

PIQ’s commercial progress remains elusive and the strategy has quietly contracted, with the DTC (direct-to-consumer) pathway now effectively shelved. With limited commercial traction, we see investors’ optimism rests on optionality rather than commercial delivery, with the recent share price rally driven by hopes of asset monetisation (PromarkerEndo and OxiDX in particular), making the strategic and operational review a near-term test new management’s ability to reset priorities, enforce discipline and restore a credible commercial pathway. Happy to stay on the sidelines despite recent share price volatility but note that what we view as free options on the ex-DKD tests may provide material upside if and when external interest converts into a tangible monetisation outcome. No change to A$0.43 target price, but downgrade to TRIM on share price strength.