Research notes

Navigator Global Investments (NGI) is an alternative asset management firm focused on partnering with leading global alternative managers, with exposure to 11 boutique firms across hedge funds, private markets, structured credit, macro, commodities and derivatives. NGI operates a simple and effective model: it takes minority stakes in high-quality, high-margin alternative managers and supports their growth with capital and strategic services. The model creates a highly diversified earnings base with strong growth potential through adding scale (new partnerships) to the existing platform. NGI has a strategic ambition to double EBITDA over five years, implying ~15% CAGR. We believe the business has the operating structure and expertise, is self-funding, and has a large addressable market for acquisitions to achieve this target. Earnings resilience is a key feature supported by high diversity in its Assets under management (AUM) across asset classes, managers, investment strategies, and investor channels. At ~13x FY26F PE, we see this earnings durability and growth potential as undervalued. We initiate coverage on NGI with a BUY recommendation, with the stock currently trading at an 18% discount to our A$3.45 blended valuation.

Following changes to its Board and with the appointment of a new CEO, we see more stability and focus returning to the PNV business. The 1Q26 trading update sees group sales up 33% and gives us confidence our full-year revenue forecast (up ~17%) is on track. We sit below revenue consensus but in line with EBITDA. We have made no changes to forecasts. However, we have removed our discount to the target price which now sits at A$2.03 (was A$1.69). We have moved our recommendation up to BUY from SPECULAIVE BUY.

MyState (MYS) is a diversified financial services group that completed the transformative merger with previously ASX-listed Auswide in February 2025. The earnings growth outlook for MYS is supported by the extraction of Auswide merger synergies that are targeted to ramp up and be fully captured in FY29.

Today’s acquisitions largely reflect SYL’s intention to continue expanding both its geographic and sector diversification, via a mix of organic and acquisition-led strategies. The further expansion into South East Queensland is seen as a positive, as the business expands its wider East Coast presence and looks to take advantage of South East Queensland infrastructure projects. SYL’s mix of organic and acquisition-led growth, combined with a healthy balance sheet and an undemanding earnings multiple (vs peers), sees us reiterate our Buy recommendation as we increase our target price to $3.75/sh, a result of higher earnings expectations and a progressively reducing peer multiple discount.

GYG has launched its latest limited-time offer (LTO): the BBQ Chicken Double Crunch (BBQ CDC). Early feedback suggests the item is one of GYG’s more indulgent menu items and taste tests have been overwhelmingly positive (see our short video linked below). The product leverages existing ingredients, meaning no incremental complexity or cost for stores, a margin-friendly innovation that aligns with GYG’s operational discipline. Management has repeatedly emphasised that menu innovation is a key lever for same-store sales (SSS) growth, and this launch reinforces that commitment. We reiterate our BUY rating.

DBI has executed a refinancing that indicates its cost of new debt has reduced dramatically. Forecast upgrades related to reduce cost of capital drive a c.8% increase in our target price to $5.10/sh. ACCUMULATE. Next key event is the FY25 result that will be released in February.

BAP has lowered its FY26 underlying NPAT guidance by ~17% to A$44-49m, and 1H26 underlying NPAT by ~60% to A$5-8m amid weaker Oct/Nov trading. Management reiterated confidence in a materially improved 2H (implied ~A$40m NPAT at the midpoint); however, the magnitude and timing of today's downgrade - coming shortly after the 20-Oct update - warrants some caution around 2H expectations. The balance sheet also appears to be a point of concern, with BAP in discussions with lenders for covenant relief in FY26, with our estimates for gearing potentially approaching/exceeding the current covenant of ~3.0x (MorgansF ~3.05x). Given significant share price weakness, renewed corporate appeal may arise. However, absent a takeover, we view the investment case as challenged given the sharp deterioration in earnings visibility, ongoing staff turnover, margin pressure, market share losses, balance sheet risk, and anaemic sales growth.

Epiminder (EPI) aims to transform epilepsy diagnosis and management through the Minder® system, the first FDA-approved sub-scalp EEG capable of continuous brain monitoring for months or years. Unlike current short-duration EEG tests, Minder® provides long-window, high-fidelity that enables more accurate diagnosis and better treatment decisions. EPI is targeting a phased US commercial launch in 2H26. EPI’s initial focus is drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE) patients with inconclusive EEG results, a segment representing up to 45,000 patients annually in the US and a US$1.1bn market opportunity. IPO proceeds will fund completion of the DETECT demonstration study, development of the next-generation G1 Minder® system, and initial build-out of US commercial infrastructure. Key near-term catalysts include the targeted 2H26 release of the G0 device and start of the DETECT study. We initiate coverage of EPI with a SPECULATIVE BUY rating and a target price of A$2.33.

WTC’s FY25 investor day highlighted the group’s progress and broader outlook for a number of key near to medium-term growth initiatives, which in our view continues to see the group in a solid position to drive value. We retain our BUY rating, with a revised PT of $112.50ps.

STP has provided a materially weaker than expected trading update for 1H26. Revenue for 1H26 is expected to be down 31-37% to $30-33m and EBITDA is expected to be a loss of $9-11m, including a $10m provision for inventory obsolescence. Excluding inventory obsolescence, EBITDA for 1H26 would be a loss of $1m to $1m profit. As a result of recent trading, STP has withdrawn its FY26 earnings guidance. We have materially lowered our earnings estimates for FY26/27/28 based on this trading update and uncertainty around the path forward. We have moved our recommendation to a HOLD (from SPEC BUY), with a blended EV/EBIT and DCF valuation of $0.36, we have applied a 15% discount to this valuation to set our price target at $0.30 due to earnings uncertainty.