Research notes

ALQ delivered a strong FY26 with EBIT +18% and NPAT +26% YoY. Commodities was the standout, as 2H revenue growth of +23% was accompanied by +170bps of HoH margin expansion. Commodities guidance (FY27 +12-14% revenue growth) is conservative and would require a material deceleration from 2H26 (+23%). Indeed, 1H27 minerals guidance is predicated on flat (absolute) sample volumes vs 2H26, despite seasonal tailwinds (Sept-half > Mar-half) and accelerating junior activity. Our forecast changes are negligible, and we still view risk to our forecasts as skewed firmly to the upside, absent a material supply disruption scenario. We forecast Commodities revenue growth of +25%, while our raisings data points to geochemistry volumes up +35-45% during 1H, corroborated by the sample flows chart which already shows volumes tracking +25-30% in April. The stock is now trading on just 23x FY27 PE as it enters a bullish commodities cycle with a gold-plated balance sheet (leverage 1.5x). Reiterate BUY.

NHC delivered a materially stronger-than-expected 3Q26, with group coal sales of 3.2Mt beating consensus by ~20%. Saleable Production was also strong at 3.01Mt, beating consensus by ~10%. Bengalla achieved a FOB cash cost ($AUD/t) of $74, down from $84.4 in the prior quarter. Underlying EBITDA (unaudited) of ~A$130m came in ~22% ahead of the prior quarter, supported by higher volumes and a meaningful step-down in unit costs. We maintain a HOLD rating with a target price of A$5.25ps.

MP1 has announced a series of large contract wins which are financially and strategically significant. MP1 will use its globally unique communications platform to connect servers and GPU clusters in numerous DCs across the US. DC power constraints are a growing issue and MP1 was uniquely able to stitch together multiple sites to provide consolidated inference solutions. We update our forecasts to reflect recent contract wins, lifting our TP to $15.50 per share. We retain a BUY recommendation.

BXB’s trading update was disappointing, reflecting short-term pallet repair capacity constraints in parts of the US. These issues were driven by subcontractor turnover at service centres, labour shortages, and elevated supply chain costs, including additional repair, handling, transportation, and storage expenses. BXB has downgraded FY26 (constant FX) revenue growth guidance to 2-3% (vs 3-4% previously) while underlying EBIT growth is now expected to be 3-5% (vs 8-11% previously). We adjust FY26/27/28F underlying EBIT by -4%/-5%/-1%. Our target price declines to $18.70 (from $25.50) and we move to a HOLD rating (from ACCUMULATE). While management expects US pallet repair capacity constraints to be a short-term issue, with resolution targeted by the end of 1H27 and improvement initiatives already underway, risks remain given the challenging operating environment, including potential for further subcontractor turnover. With the volume outlook also uncertain, we prefer to wait for BXB’s FY26 result on 20 August before reassessing our view.

TNC continues to advance both the Mt Oxide Copper Project and Cloncurry Hub across multiple fronts, against a backdrop of record copper prices. Exploration momentum continues to build at Mt Oxide, while the broader Cloncurry growth strategy is gaining traction through ongoing exploration success and commercial agreements. Looking ahead, we view the next 12 months as a key formative period for TNC, with continued drilling and development activity expected to further define the scale potential at Mt Oxide. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating and A$1.30ps price target.

Alibaba Group is a Chinese multinational technology company specialising in e-commerce, retail, Internet and technology. The company has 7 main operating segments: China commerce retail, China commerce wholesale, International commerce, Core commerce, Digital Media and Entertainment, Cloud and Other. Across these segments are 32 companies. Alibaba’s primary business is a digital marketplace where consumers and merchants can connect to buy and sell from each other.

Tencent Holdings Ltd is a Chinese multinational technology conglomerate and holding company headquartered in Shenzhen. Its services include social network, music, web portals, e-commerce, mobile games, internet services, payment systems, smartphones and multiplayer online games. The company is split into six groups: Corporate Development Group, Cloud & Smart Industries Group, Interactive Entertainment Group, Platform & Content Group, Technology Engineering Group and Weixin Group.

Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) is a leading multinational technology conglomerate headquartered in San Jose, California. The company has established itself as a dominant force in the digital communications landscape since its founding in 1984.

We initiate coverage on SHAPE with an ACCUMULATE recommendation and an $8.62 share price target. We see SHAPE as a higher-quality contractor, supported by short-duration projects, repeat client relationships, predominantly internal works, disciplined contract selection and a capital-light delivery model. This operating model, combined with its strong client relationships and tender discipline, positions SHAPE to continue converting pipeline into project wins.

Following QAL’s recent 3QFY26 update, the announced changes to residential real estate investment in the Federal Budget and the sale of a further interest in the comparable Metrics Credit, we have upgraded QAL to a BUY with a $3.50/sh price target. Our valuation and recommendation change was driven almost entirely by a reduction to our discretionary valuation discount (+75 cps), reflecting our lower perceived risk as a) the company reiterates that FUM commitments continue to increase and b) FUM deployments set new records.