Research notes

STP has provided a materially weaker than expected trading update for 1H26. Revenue for 1H26 is expected to be down 31-37% to $30-33m and EBITDA is expected to be a loss of $9-11m, including a $10m provision for inventory obsolescence. Excluding inventory obsolescence, EBITDA for 1H26 would be a loss of $1m to $1m profit. As a result of recent trading, STP has withdrawn its FY26 earnings guidance. We have materially lowered our earnings estimates for FY26/27/28 based on this trading update and uncertainty around the path forward. We have moved our recommendation to a HOLD (from SPEC BUY), with a blended EV/EBIT and DCF valuation of $0.36, we have applied a 15% discount to this valuation to set our price target at $0.30 due to earnings uncertainty.

Following a review of our research universe, we discontinue Keeping Stock coverage of Firstwave Cloud Technology (FCT AU).

McDonald’s Corporation (MCD.NYS) is a global QSR (Quick Service Restaurant) business known for signature menu items such as the Big Mac, Quarter Pounder, Chicken McNuggets, and Fries. The Golden Arches logo is one of the most instantly recognisable symbols of American consumer culture in the world.

CKF’s 1H26 NPAT was 12% higher than forecast and 30% up yoy. The strong headline beat was partly a function of solid operational execution and a return to positive LFL sales growth, but was significantly boosted by a lower-than-expected depreciation charge and tax rate. EBITDA was up 11% and 1% higher than forecast. The value proposition inherent in the KFC brand has allowed it to outperform peers in a competitive and challenging QSR market in Australia and continental Europe. 1H26 margins improved, although we anticipate some downward pressure in Australia in the second half as commodity price inflation resumes. CKF upgraded its full year guidance. We have increased our NPAT estimates by 3% in each of the next three forecast years and our target price rises by 1% to $12.40. With just over 10% TSR implied by our revised target after a strong rally, we retain our ACCUMULATE rating.

MI6 has released the highly anticipated MRE update for its flagship Bullabulling Gold Project. Bullabulling now hosts 130Mt at 1.0g/t Au for 4.5Moz, a material beat on our prior upside case of 3.5Moz. Importantly, a high degree of the resource (3Moz or 67%) remains in the ‘indicated’ category and underpins our updated forecasts and future pre-feasibility studies (PFS) - due mid CY26. Given the updated scale, we now see clear line-of-sight to a ~200kozpa operation over ~15 years (previously 160–170kozpa), which we model via a staged mill expansion from 5Mtpa to 7Mtpa. Bullabulling now positions MI6 as the largest single-asset, undeveloped gold resource in Australia outside the established producer cohort, and we view it as a must-own stock. We upgrade our rating to BUY (from SPECULATIVE BUY) and increase our price target to A$1.10ps (previously A$0.55ps).

TWE has announced that it expects to recognise a non-cash impairment of at least all the goodwill of its US based assets (A$697.4m). While this is disappointing, it isn’t a complete surprise given the company has new CEO and the US market remains challenging, in fact, category trends have deteriorated further. A further update on trading will be provided in mid-December. We suspect that trading has been weaker than expected and wouldn’t be surprised if consensus is too high. The 1H26 result will be particularly weak. We have made large revisions to our forecasts and stress that earnings uncertainty remains high. Consequently, we maintain a HOLD rating.

Our modelling assumes APA invests about $5bn in growth projects over the next 10 years (APA’s target is $2.1bn over FY26-28) delivering incremental earnings. Today’s announcement that APA is working towards development of a gas-fired power station in Qld contributes to a partial backfilling of this assumption. We make immaterial adjustments to our forecasts. Target price declines 14 cps to $7.74/sh. TRIM retained, given potential TSR at current prices of c.-10%.

The acquisition of two predominantly sensors businesses, in our view, is preferred against acquiring purely software businesses. IMD has paid a full price for ALT and MSI (~15x CY24 EBITDA), though with 55-60% exposed to mining exploration, both should be seeing substantial growth. Perhaps more importantly, IMD has now cleansed P&L costs below EBITDA which will likely trigger EPS downgrades. However, this disregards the strength of the base business, for which volumes have sequentially improved through 2Q, notwithstanding usual seasonal softness. We cut our EPS forecasts by 5% in FY26 as we incorporate ALT and MSI and higher D&A, interest and tax. We also fully consolidate Datarock and Krux. In FY27 and FY28, cuts to our forecasts are marginal (1-2%) as we increase our revenue growth assumption in FY27 from +7% to +10%. Target price to $3.70 (from $3.80).

NXT has announced that following recent customer contract wins, presumably including a large single customer contract win across multiple locations, its contracted utilisation has increased by 71MW to 316MW as at 1 December 2025. Further contract wins were, and remain in, our forecasts so this mostly underpins our expectations. However, we upgrade our capex assumptions and lift our FY27/28 EBITDA forecasts by 5%. Our target price remains $19 per share. The share price has declined ~19% in the last three months and given a ~40% differential between the current share price and our $19 target price we upgrade our recommendation to BUY from ACCUMULATE.

GPT is executing its strategy, growing, and diversifying the group’s management platform across both asset classes and product types, while aligning with investment partners via its significant co-investment. This strategy could see AUM increase from $37bn to >$85bn, driving earnings growth of 5-7% pa, particularly as GPT leverages its $12bn of balance sheet assets to seed new vehicles. We view this strategy as a paradigm shift. Whilst GPT trades in line with peers and toward the upper end of its historical trading range, the outlook should see the business become increasingly capital light (relative to AUM) which may achieve a higher multiple (peer fund managers trade at c.17.5x management earnings + NTA). In the meantime, GPT currently trades at a 4.5% distribution yield and towards NTA, reflecting nominal value for the funds management division. We initiate coverage of GPT with an Accumulate rating and $6.20/sh target price.