Research notes

MGH delivered a strong set of results for 1H26, reflecting solid EPS growth of 16% (pcp), in line with the CAGR since listing (1H21-1H26) of 15.7%. Importantly, the CC&H division, the bulk of what will remain post the sale of Construction Materials (CM), delivered a ROCE of 20%, double that achieved in 1H25. The sale of CM will see MGH with $1.3bn of cash, or net cash of $700m, with interest income alone ensuring EPS remains relatively flat as the business deploys the capital. With guidance for the business (excl CM) at $120m-$140m and an EV post-transaction of c.$800m, MGH is trading on c.5-6x EV/EBITDA – an undemanding multiple if management can redeploy capital at its target 20% ROCE. On this basis, we maintain our Buy rating and $5.20/sh price target.

ARB's 1H26 result was pre-released (sales -1%; PBT -16%) and we saw limited incremental information today that justified the sharp share price fall. Exports remain the highlight, as the US delivered +26% growth with ARB product sales through the ORW/4WP network up +100% LFL, the UK returned to growth (+5%), and management expressed confidence EMEA headwinds are behind them with the orderbook tracking well ahead of pcp. Within Aftermarket, network expansion, the new e-commerce platform, new product cycles and the Ford partnership provide levers to help offset a slower start to industry volumes. FY26 reflects a base year for ARB and we remain positive on a resumption of sustainable growth in FY27. We view ~18x FY27F PE as undemanding relative to ARB’s market leadership, strong balance sheet and ongoing US execution. BUY.

TYR’s 1H26 result was a beat at operating EBITDA by +11% and was comfortably above consensus NPAT (+27%).  The result profit beat was driven by growing operating leverage with TYR’s 1H26 EBITDA margin (33.6%) improving +4% on the pcp.   The negative area of the result was softer top line growth than expected. Indeed, whilst revenue grew +6% on the pcp, it was -11% below consensus (A$266m).  In summary, we saw this as a broadly solid performance, which continued TYR’s multi-year trend of improving EBITDA margins, and with FY26 guidance parameters re-affirmed (albeit with higher costs expected in 2H26). We lower our TYR FY26F/FY27F EPS by -1%/-4% on slightly more conservative top-line growth assumptions. Our PT is reduced to A$1.55 (previously A$1.70). With >20% upside to our PT, we maintain our BUY call.

This result likely represents peak growth for MND. EBITDA increased +58% YoY and NPAT +70% (excluding the one-off insurance proceeds in the pcp). Industry tailwinds across metals, energy and wind continue to be supportive, and we would not rule out the potential for a full-year guidance beat. However, attention should shift to FY27, where growth should moderate materially. In FY26, Maintenance benefited from two meaningful one-off hook up and commissioning projects (Scarborough and Krux) that will be difficult to replace. While the E&C order book remains healthy at $630m, we believe material upside from here is increasingly dependent on securing a major contract such as ARU’s Nolans project, introducing a more binary outlook. We upgrade our EBITDA forecasts by +16-17% across our forecast period and NPAT by +19-23% in each year. Our target price rises to $33.85 which no longer supports enough upside for a buy (or accumulate).

NAN delivered a mixed but passable result with softer-than-expected revenue offset by stronger-than-anticipated cost control, resulting in stable earnings despite ongoing margin pressure. Reaffirmed guidance points to a cleaner 2H with better growth, margins and operating leverage on a constant currency basis. However, we expect FX headwinds to persist and crimp an otherwise solid underlying performance. Macro factors (interest rates, FX) continue to weigh on NAN. As a result, our target price reduces to A$4 p/s (from A$5 p/s) but we retain a Buy recommendation.

We have refreshed our assumptions ahead of Tabcorp Holdings’ (TAH) 1H26 result on 25 February. We have lowered our earnings estimates, primarily in FY26, following an understatement of segment operating costs, bringing us closer to consensus (albeit still modestly above). FY27 estimates remain broadly unchanged (<1% NPAT movement). Our target price remains $1.07 and our recommendation remains Accumulate.

TTX posted its 1H26 result which was in line with our forecasts. We remain focused on upcoming catalysts including: FDA submissions and clearance for the bone regeneration products Tegenix and TegenEOS; continued partner engagement for Tegenix and TegenEOS; moving towards additional clinical studies for the tissue spacing products (Tutelix and Optelex); clinical read-out of the primary endpoint (cohort 2) for TetraDerm (tissue healing); and complete relocation to the new manufacturing facility. We have made no changes to our forecasts or valuation. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation.

After doing a post result deep dive into one-off versus recurring costs implied in 2H26 guidance, we now understand 2H26 includes a number of one-off costs. We update our forecasts, lowering our FY27/28 OPEX due to expectations of a higher underlying 2H26 exit rate EBITDA margin relative to that implied in guidance (which includes meaningful one-off costs in 2H26). We lift our FY27/28 EBITDA forecasts by 15-20%. Our forecasts now sit in line with consensus. Our target price lifts to $16.00 and we retain our Buy rating.

NGI’s 1H26 reported NPAT was well below consensus (-A$4.3m vs A$26m), however excluding more one-off items, the underlying EBITDA result was actually comfortably ahead of consensus (A$48m vs A$36m). Whilst acknowledging significant noise in the reported numbers here, we thought this result was reasonable observing; the underlying performance was better than expected, the company indicated solid comfort with current FY26 consensus, and the acquisition pipeline sounds active. We lower our NGI FY26F/FY27F adjusted EPS figures by -1%/-2% respectively. Changes to our numbers reflect a lift to underlying EBITDA expectations, offset by higher FY26 tax expense and increased interest and D&A costs. Our PT is reduced to A$3.35 (previously A$3.71) impacted by a higher AUD. With >20% upside to our revised price target, we move to a BUY call (previously Accumulate).

LAU’s 1H26 operating result was largely in line with our expectations, albeit a handful of factors (largely timing issues) saw cashflow and LAU’s net-leverage more muted in 1H26 (which should normalise into 2H26). Whilst market pressures remain, LAU is well placed to drive growth via incremental efficiency/scale benefits. We move to an ACCUMULATE rating, with an unchanged $0.80/sh Price target.