Research notes
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Research Notes
FY26, comes in as planned but brings complexity
Atturra
August 26, 2026
ATA's FY26 result was in line with company guidance but a modest miss against MorgansE. The FY27 outlook commentary guides to "record revenue, EBIT and underlying EBITDA”, but lacks specific numbers. It is also coupled with a larger than normal 2H EBITDA weighting due to accelerated investment in 1H27. We reduce our forecasts by ~13% as the company lifts investment initiatives in FY27. We see ATA shares as materially undervalued. However, we move to a HOLD recommendation, from Buy. In doing so we now set our Target Price at a material discount to our valuation. The move to a Hold reflects our view that the marginal buyer is more likely to wait for proof points of return on incremental investment, rather than buy ahead of a relatively softer 1H27 result which will be impacted by incremental investment.
1H26 and clinical trial progressing
Neuren Pharmaceuticals
August 26, 2026
NEU's 1H26 result highlighted continued commercial momentum, supported by record 2Q26 DAYBUE net sales from partner Acadia, upgraded CY26 DAYBUE guidance and ongoing uptake of the STIX powder formulation in the US. The European Commission approval of DAYBU is a material de-risking event, creating a pathway for first European commercial sales from Germany in early 4Q26 and a US$35m milestone to NEU following first commercial sale. Royalty income increased 17% to A$33.2m, while R&D costs rose to A$27.4m as the Koala Phase 3 trial progressed. Cash and short-term investments were A$286.5m at period end. NEU also introduced its first dividend policy and declared a maiden fully franked interim dividend of 15.0 cents per share, payable on 7 October 2026. The Koala Phase 3 trial had 15 sites activated across the US and Canada, with more than 100 potential participants referred to active sites or awaiting activation of closer sites.
International Spotlight
Unilever PLC
August 26, 2026
Unilever (ULVR.LSE) is a global consumer goods company whose origins date back to 1929 when Dutch margarine producer Margarine Unie merged with British soap maker Lever Brothers. Headquartered in London, the company owns a portfolio of leading brands across beauty and wellbeing, personal care, home care and foods, including Dove, Vaseline, Rexona, Hellmann’s, Knorr, Lifebuoy and Sunsilk, with products sold in more than 190 countries and used by billions of consumers. Unilever’s household brands hold particularly strong positions across emerging markets.
FY26 result: Sharp execution
SkinKandy
August 25, 2026
SK1 delivered a strong maiden result, ~5% beat to prospectus NPAT forecasts. Pro forma NPAT of $9.0m was up 41% yoy. Sales growth was up 29% driven by 9.6% LFL, 22 new store openings, stable gross margins and delivered operating leverage even with cost investment. EBIT margins expanded 120bps (15.3%). Key growth priorities remain on track: 1) store rollout in FY27 expected to be 18-20 stores with a target of 180-210, 2) improving store economics and 3) international expansion well progressed with first opening expected in 2H FY27. We have increased our NPAT forecasts by ~5% in FY27/28 respectively. Our valuation increases to $3.10 (from $2.90), driven by earnings revisions. We retain our BUY recommendation; we are forecasting ~30% NPAT growth p.a. over the next few years, which we think more than justifies the >22x PE multiple.
1H26: Predictable earnings growth. M&A risk rising?
Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure
August 25, 2026
A predictable result, largely in-line with expectations. No change to short-term guidance. Immaterial forecast changes, target price set at $5.43/sh. While we appreciate DBI’s quality, yield and growth drivers, at current share prices the potential TSR is sufficiently compressed at c.7% to retain a HOLD. Management’s acknowledgement of its interest in the Port of Newcastle sale unsettles the thus-far dormant risk of M&A value destruction.
FY26 Result: International momentum accelerating
Acusensus
August 25, 2026
ACE delivered a solid FY26 result, a small beat vs MorgansF/consensus, with Revenue of $86.2m (+45% yoy) modestly ahead of MorgansF of $85.5m and Underlying EBITDA (pre-SBP) of $8.5m (up +49% yoy) above ACE’s FY26 EBITDA guidance range of $7.2-8.2m, representing a ~6% beat vs. MorgansF $8.0m. FY27 guidance for revenue growth of 16-23% is largely underpinned by ~$97m of already contracted revenue. ACE remains well progressed across a number of tenders, representing potential catalysts into FY27. Given ACE’s guidance, our EBITDA forecasts remain unchanged, with conversion of further opportunities being incremental. We retain our Speculative Buy rating on ACE with a blended price target of $2.00/sh.
FY26 result: Under, but a clear margin path outlined
SiteMinder
August 25, 2026
SDR’s FY26 result was slightly below at the topline (A$266m, +22% c/c vs the pcp) and ~6% under at underlying EBITDA (~A$28m, +96% on pcp). Key business metrics however remain robust (LTV/CAC of 6.6x, ARR +24% c/c and Rule of 40 of 25.9%). Of note was SDR's first multi-year framework, guiding to a mid-20s adjusted EBITDA margin by FY30 (10.6% in FY26) on ARR compounding at a CAGR in the 20s. We lower our FY27/FY28 EBITDA ~7%/~5% and our price target to A$5.45 (from A$5.90). We retain our BUY recommendation.
FY27 guidance sees SYL’s growth continue
Symal Group
August 25, 2026
SYL continues to pursue projects across its target structural growth themes of: a) Brisbane 2032, b) east-coast renewable energy zones, c) data centres, and d) the national defence pipeline, expanding its geographic footprint since IPO to reflect this. Incremental strategic acquisitions combined with double-digit organic earnings growth in FY27 see the stock trading on a PEG of <1x. We continue to support the SYL strategy (geographic and sector diversification), seeing the potential given the undemanding valuation, relative to the mid-teens EPS growth outlook. Buy retained, with a $3.60/sh price target.
FY26 result: Multiple growth drivers
Acrow
August 25, 2026
ACF’s FY26 result was largely in line with expectations with underlying EBITDA consistent with revised guidance provided in June. FY27 guidance was upgraded following a solid start to the year, the strength of the forward order book, and the expected contributions from the two recent acquisitions of AGIS and Preston Superdeck. The performance of Industrial Access was the key highlight with revenue jumping 53%, driven by both acquisitions and organic growth. While Construction revenue increased only 1%, a recovery in the QLD formwork market delivered an improved performance in 2H26 with momentum continuing into FY27. For FY27, ACF has upgraded revenue guidance by 1% at the midpoint, while underlying EBITDA guidance was lifted by 3%. We increase FY27-29F underlying EBITDA by 2%. Our target price rises to $1.40 (from $1.30) and we maintain our BUY rating. Trading on 8.6x FY27F PE with a 3.8% yield, we believe the valuation remains attractive.
Reinvigorating sales growth remains key
Tyro Payments
August 25, 2026
TYR’s FY26 result missed consensus by 3% at the PBT line (A$24.7m vs A$25.5m) and by a steeper 13% at NPAT (A$21.3m), with the wider gap reflecting a higher tax expense as TYR's carried forward tax losses wind down. We would describe the result as broadly solid: FY26 guidance was met on gross profit (A$231.8m vs A$230m–A$240m) and EBITDA margin (28.9% vs 28.5%–30.0%), albeit at the low end of both ranges. The key positive was continued margin expansion and improving cash flow. The main offsetting concern is decelerating revenue growth (0.7%), though management's focus remains on gross profit growth, which was more reasonable at +5% in FY26. We lower TYR FY26F/FY27F NPBT by ~1% on slightly more conservative top-line growth assumptions. Our PT is reduced to A$1.31 (previously A$1.48) on more conservative long-term growth assumptions in our DCF. With >20% upside to our PT, we maintain our BUY call.
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